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October 21, 2008

Leftover From Navy

Filed under: Football,Players,Polls,Prognostications — Chas @ 9:23 am

A few items to get done.

During the game, I never took notice of Elijah Fields in the game. Turns out, it was because he never played a down. Obviously with Navy, there is no real call for packages that have 3 safeties, but to not even spell DeCicco was surprising. I know there had been talk of Fields coming in and essentially playing linebacker, but Greg Williams really had a great game so there was no need there.

Williams, who is the team’s fourth-leading tackler with 24 and has 1 1/2 sacks, finished the Navy game with four tackles, a tackle for loss and the pass breakup. He made a number of plays by forcing the play back into the middle where the Panthers had a host of defenders. The Panthers only gave up one big play to the outside of the field, on Navy’s first drive.

Pitt middle linebacker and defensive captain Scott McKillop, a fifth-year senior, said it has been fun to watch the maturation of Williams.

“I think having two weeks to prepare really helped Greg because I don’t know that he has ever seen this offense or played against it,” McKillop said. “But he is picking things up every week and he is getting so much more comfortable in what he is doing that he is now able to use his physical tools because he is not thinking so much, he’s just playing.

“He made a couple of big plays for us today, he’s so athletic and he just runs around and runs guys down. I’m happy to have him on our side.”

As he has learned to read the play, he can use his speed to get there.

Pitt’s defensive line really looked solid against Navy. It had to help with the linebackers playing closer and McKillop essentially shadowing the Navy fullback, Eric Kettani.

Mustakas said the key was winning the battles at the line of scrimmage and staying disciplined in his assignments. The Panthers made sure there was no confusing his job.

“We were doing periods with no ball-carriers,” Mustakas said. “They were saying the whole week, ‘Just don’t get bored.’ We were doing the same thing. We were just hitting the fullback every down, if he doesn’t have the ball or if he has the ball. Hit the fullback. Just little things that we stayed in our assignments, it showed off in the end.”

Mustakas said the bye week allowed him to rest his knee and last week was the first where it felt fine after practice. He is looking forward to making an impact and the Panthers will need as much from him, with Williams out indefinitely and backup Tommie Duhart sidelined after injuring an ankle against Navy. Redshirt freshman Myles Caragein got his first large dose of playing time and finished with four tackles.

A little worried about the depth now at defensive tackle.

Maybe it’s because there’s a lot of military in the stadium, but apparently it was noticeable how pleasant it was to actually go into the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.

Is something wrong here? I’ve waited anywhere from 15-25 minutes in “security” lines at Heinz Field at Pitt and Steelers games. I traveled to the US Naval Academy to see Pitt play this past weekend and I wasn’t touched by any security person at all. And guess what? There weren’t any security issues at the game. Please note I’ll be talking to Guest Services at Heinz Field the next game I attend.

Hey, it could be worse. You could have to deal with Ohio Stadium.

Before the season there were plenty talking about how good Pitt could be this year. Then, of course, BGSU happened. Now that Pitt is at 5-1 and ranked, the ones who pushed Pitt early can come back to them.

Stewart Mandel, SI.com (who picked Navy in this game, just for the record).

1. That LeSean McCoy is back. When Pittsburgh struggled early in the season, so, too, did its talented sophomore tailback, who averaged 80.7 yards his first three games, down from 110.7 as a freshman. Over his past three games, however, McCoy has put up 149, 142 and 156 yards, the latter coming in Saturday’s 42-21 win over Navy, which also included three McCoy touchdowns. By no coincidence, the Panthers, which have now won five straight following an opening-week loss to Bowling Green, have upped their scoring average from 21.7 to 34.0.

Pittsburgh appears to be rounding into the Big East title contender that many of us expected. The Panthers’ offensive line was their biggest question mark, and they did indeed struggle early in the season, but they must be improving now that McCoy is finding holes and QB Bill Stull is finding time to throw downfield. (He hit freshman WR Jonathan Baldwin for a 60-yard TD against Navy). Meanwhile, Scott McKillop and the defense held Navy to its lowest rushing total (194 yards) in two years. Pitt is far from a polished product but is now the favorite to win its league.

And Matt Hayes, The Sporting News, with regard to teams not ranked high enough in the AP poll.

No. 17 Pittsburgh: I’ve just got a strange feeling the Panthers could run the table or finish with 11 wins. The running game with LeSean McCoy and LaRod Stephens-Howling is terrific, and the stingy defense gets better with each week.

So now, at this point in the season, Pitt is looking more and more like the favorite in the Big East to go to a BCS bowl.

Odds of winning the league: 3-1

BCS-bound because: The Panthers have planned this team according to a championship formula: run the ball with a solid back, play great defense, especially up the middle, and sack the quarterback. RB LeSean McCoy and LB Scott McKillop might be the best at their positions in the conference.

St. Petersburg Bowl-bound because: Bill Stull still hasn’t shown he can win a big game with plays in the passing game. It’s tough to imagine Pittsburgh excelling with a quarterback who throws more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (four).

The silly projections are all going to the Orange Bowl to play an ACC team.

October 20, 2008

BlogPoll Week 8, Draft

Filed under: Bloggers,Football,Polls — Chas @ 10:53 am

Good god, it’s a mess.

Rank Team Delta
1 Texas 1
2 Alabama 1
3 Penn State
4 Oklahoma
5 Georgia
6 Southern Cal
7 Florida
8 Texas Tech 1
9 Ohio State 2
10 Oklahoma State 3
11 Utah 1
12 LSU 4
13 Boise State 6
14 Pittsburgh 12
15 South Florida 2
16 TCU 10
17 Ball State 3
18 Kansas 4
19 Georgia Tech 6
20 Minnesota 4
21 Missouri 6
22 Brigham Young 10
23 Tulsa 3
24 Oregon 2
25 Virginia Tech 7
Dropped Out: North Carolina (#16), Wake Forest (#21), Michigan State (#22), California (#23).

Utah didn’t deserve to fall a spot, but Oklahoma St. deserved to be higher. Teams that deserved to fall out, but couldn’t because there was no other team that was worth plugging in, included VT, BYU and Missouri.

I have to admit being very uncomfortable having Pitt so high. I really don’t feel they should be up that high, but there was no one behind them I could say with real certainty should be in front. I do understand why Pitt is lower in most other polls. Looking at body of work — which should be a factor — that BGSU loss has increasingly become a bigger millstone around the team. The Falcons lost again over the weekend to fall to 3-4. There’s no good way to spin a bad home loss like that for purposes of rankings and polls.

Oregon got back into the poll on the bye week, because well, their two losses were at least to ranked team. A close loss to Boise St. and getting abused by USC — the week after Oregon St. upset the Trojans.

Georgia Tech gets a big bounce from all the teams losing. Plus, they pulled out a win over a very emotional Clemson team in Clemson. That counts for something to me, especially with mental toughness. Paul Johnson is doing a great job there.

There’s no way I’m putting Florida St. in there. They may be 5-1, but with 2 1-AA wins and a few close escapes — including the NC State game — they are not good enough.

I hate having Texas Tech that high. I find them an entertaining team, but reality will hit soon. They at least seemed more convincing than LSU.

Last week I noted that BYU just didn’t look like a team to trust. I was right with that. Of course, I was also very high on UNC moving up and then they blew it against Virginia.

As always reasoned arguments are welcome. Just remember, if you think a team should be lower or removed, I need a replacement and/or good reasons why the teams below should be higher.

UPDATE: Here’s what the full draft poll looks like. Pitt comes in at #17 at the moment.

October 13, 2008

BlogPoll Week 7, Draft

Filed under: Bloggers,Football,Polls — Chas @ 11:11 am

Okay. This week there is some shake-up.

Rank Team Delta
1 Alabama 2
2 Texas 3
3 Penn State 3
4 Oklahoma 3
5 Georgia 2
6 Southern Cal 2
7 Florida 4
8 LSU 4
9 Texas Tech
10 Utah 5
11 Ohio State 1
12 Brigham Young 2
13 Oklahoma State 13
14 Kansas
15 Missouri 13
16 North Carolina 3
17 South Florida
18 Virginia Tech 2
19 Boise State 1
20 Ball State
21 Wake Forest 1
22 Michigan State 1
23 California 2
24 Minnesota 2
25 Georgia Tech 1
Dropped Out: Vanderbilt (#13), Northwestern (#21).

Have to concede that Penn State looks pretty damn good. Yes, they beat up a lot of cupcakes, but they did it without any mercy. Wisconsin may have been overrated, but they had lost two straight and were at home and desperate. PSU just dismantled them.

Okay, now I believe that Oklahoma State is a pretty good team.

Essentially swapped spots for Utah and BYU. The Cougars may have had a final of 21-3 vs. New Mexico, but I actually watched a lot of that game. BYU was very unimpressive at home against a mediocre MWC opponent.

Vandy gets Croomed and out they go. Buh-bye Northwestern.

Another impressive turnaround is coming out of Minnesota as Tim Brewster has that team going after a hideous 1st season.

UNC has lost their starting QB and now their star receiver and return guy. Yet they are still winning. Butch Davis definitely didn’t lose anything as a college coach while doing time in Cleveland and the NFL Network.

As always reasoned arguments about teams will help shape the final ballot.

Texas Tech is uncomfortably unchanged. It’s just that I don’t feel much better about anyone behind them.

October 8, 2008

BlogPoll Week 6, Final Ballot

Filed under: Bloggers,Football,Polls — Chas @ 10:22 pm

Thanks for the constructive comments. I did make some changes from my draft ballot.

Rank Team Delta
1 Oklahoma
2 Missouri 2
3 Alabama
4 LSU 2
5 Texas
6 Penn State 1
7 Georgia 1
8 Southern Cal 2
9 Texas Tech 3
10 Brigham Young 1
11 Florida 2
12 Ohio State 2
13 Vanderbilt 5
14 Kansas 1
15 Utah 1
16 Virginia Tech 3
17 South Florida 11
18 Boise State 2
19 North Carolina 7
20 Ball State 1
21 Northwestern 3
22 Wake Forest 1
23 Michigan State 1
24 Georgia Tech 2
25 California 1
Dropped Out: Auburn (#11), Connecticut (#17), Fresno State (#25).

It was with some hesitation that I put Cal in at #25. Pac-10 teams outside of USC tend to gak as soon as I trust to put them in the poll.

I thought a bit about having Michigan St. and Northwestern ranked, but feel better about it with the knowledge that one of them will be out when they face each other this weekend.

I ended up swapping LSU and Missouri at #2 and #4. Through schedules and hurricanes, there just hasn’t been enough seen of the Tigers for me to justify keeping that at #2.

According to the final BlogPoll this week, Pitt came in about #29. Up a couple more spots from where they were.

October 7, 2008

Poll Thoughts

Filed under: Football,Polls — Chas @ 1:50 pm

So, yes, Pitt re-entered the AP poll at #24 this week, while remaining outside the Coaches — at roughly #33. The oh-so vital blogpoll has Pitt outside the top-25 at roughly #32.

For those of you ticked that I don’t have Pitt in my top-25, well tough. I’m a homer, but that doesn’t mean I have to vote for them when I don’t think they are a top-25 team right now. Yes, some bloggers who vote are probably pushing their team higher. That’s fine. If their biases are that strong, they can go that way. I don’t particularly like it, and the “everybody else is doing it” argument is weak.

I need to see them show another effort like the USF game. It took until Game 5 for the entire squad — from the coaches to the players — to play a full 4-quarters. That’s a serious issue. Everything is there, but the consistency. Maybe I’m being harder on them because I watch this team so closely, but I am still not sure what I will see from Pitt on the 18th.

One other thing. It’s been pointed out that Pitt isn’t going to kill a lot of teams in the final score. That is very true. It also means that it will be hard for Pitt to get too high in the polls without a lot of teams in front losing — big. Grinding games, where Pitt scores in the mid-20s and opposing teams score around 20 just does not look like a team that can be trusted to win every week by voters (presently Pitt’s averaging 25 ppg while allowing 21.6).

In that respect, Pitt is a lot like UConn and Wake Forest. The result is also going to be the same. When the team wins, it will be a incremental climb. A loss and the drop is substantial — because the lack of trust in the team is confirmed.

The value of winning the game on a Thursday night is tremendous in attention. Just as Pitt has learned the previous years how negatively it is viewed when you lose. If Pitt had beaten USF on Saturday without national coverage, they would not have gotten into the top-25 in any poll.

October 6, 2008

BlogPoll Week 6, Draft

Filed under: Bloggers,Football,Polls — Chas @ 2:07 pm

There have been some changes to the BlogPoll (as the logo attached may suggest). Now I need to have a draft on Monday and a final ballot by Wednesday. The idea being that bloggers can be influenced by rational arguments for and against teams. Note that, “you are a flippin’ moron, how can you…” is not an argument that I will find persuasive.

I couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger on putting Pitt in the ballot. I thought about it, and they are close. Still the body of work so far has not done it. The loss to BGSU is still huge — especially given that they are 1-3 since then. Add in Iowa going from 3-0 to 3-3 really fast.

Rank Team Delta
1 Oklahoma
2 LSU
3 Missouri 1
4 Alabama 1
5 Texas
6 Penn State 1
7 Georgia 1
8 Southern Cal 2
9 Texas Tech 3
10 Brigham Young 1
11 Florida 2
12 Ohio State 2
13 Vanderbilt 5
14 Kansas 1
15 Utah 1
16 Virginia Tech 3
17 South Florida 11
18 Auburn 7
19 Boise State 1
20 Ball State 1
21 North Carolina 5
22 Northwestern 2
23 Wake Forest
24 Michigan State 2
25 Georgia Tech 1
Dropped Out: Connecticut (#17), Fresno State (#25).

Standing by/In the discussion: Pitt, Notre Dame, Oklahoma St., Florida St.,

UNC has really impressed me. Especially when you realize they have kept rolling without their starting QB.

Oklahoma St. may be unbeaten, but good god, when your best win is probably over Houston well I’m not buying.

Yes, I know there are plenty of teams that are rated too high. The problem as always is finding teams that legitimately deserve to be ranked ahead of them.

UPDATE: You can see the full draft poll (Pitt is unranked) and links to all voters, here.

September 29, 2008

BlogPoll Ballot, Week 5 — Draft

Filed under: Bloggers,Football,Polls — Chas @ 10:14 am

Rough sketch right now. There are some changes a-coming to the BlogPoll.

Rank Team Delta
1 Oklahoma 1
2 LSU 3
3 Alabama 6
4 Missouri 1
5 Texas 2
6 South Florida 4
7 Penn State 4
8 Georgia 4
9 Brigham Young 5
10 Southern Cal 9
11 Auburn 2
12 Texas Tech 3
13 Florida 7
14 Ohio State 2
15 Kansas 3
16 Utah 1
17 Connecticut 3
18 Vanderbilt 1
19 Virginia Tech 3
20 Boise State 3
21 Ball State 4
22 Michigan State 4
23 Wake Forest 15
24 Northwestern 2
25 Fresno State 1
Dropped Out: Wisconsin (#12), TCU (#21), Colorado (#24).

I might be kind of hard on Wisconsin, but blowing that game and the way they have struggled has me hesitant. Some other teams should have fallen further, but with all the upsets over the weekend it kept them from falling further. After all, that would mean moving other teams that I’m just not sure deserve to go too much higher.

September 23, 2008

BlogPoll Ballot, Week 4

Filed under: Bloggers,Football,Polls — Chas @ 9:57 pm

So, not a lot of change near the top. Starting this week, as conference play gets broader, there should start to be a lot more shake-out and reality checks.

Rank Team Delta
1 Southern Cal
2 Oklahoma
3 Missouri
4 Georgia
5 LSU
6 Florida
7 Texas
8 Wake Forest 1
9 Alabama 9
10 South Florida
11 Penn State
12 Wisconsin 2
13 Auburn 1
14 Brigham Young 1
15 Texas Tech 2
16 Ohio State
17 Utah 4
18 Kansas 2
19 Vanderbilt 2
20 Connecticut 4
21 TCU 4
22 Virginia Tech 4
23 Boise State 3
24 Colorado 2
25 Ball State 1
Dropped Out: East Carolina (#8), Oregon (#19), West Virginia (#22), North Carolina (#23).

East Carolina’s win over WVU looks less impressive. Arguably, VT has turned things around with Tyrod Taylor and may have stabilized. UNC has their starting QB out on top of the painful loss. Wait until next year for the Tar Heels.

The bottom half stays in flux. Ball State earned their way, but I’m not sure how long their stay will be with the loss of their top receiver Dante Love.

September 16, 2008

BlogPoll Ballot, Week 3

Filed under: Bloggers,Football,Polls — Chas @ 8:19 pm

Another funfilled week of life in the top-25.

Rank Team Delta
1 Southern Cal
2 Oklahoma 1
3 Missouri 3
4 Georgia 2
5 LSU
6 Florida 1
7 Texas 2
8 East Carolina 2
9 Wake Forest 2
10 South Florida 4
11 Penn State 2
12 Auburn
13 Utah 2
14 Wisconsin 2
15 Brigham Young 6
16 Ohio State 12
17 Texas Tech
18 Alabama
19 Oregon 1
20 Kansas 2
21 Vanderbilt 3
22 West Virginia 3
23 North Carolina 3
24 Connecticut 2
25 TCU 1
Dropped Out: Arizona State (#8), Fresno State (#19), UCLA (#23).

I knew I had Arizona State overrated, I just didn’t realize how badly until I actually watched them struggle with UNLV. Having typed that, I’m sure they’ll now go out and beat Georgia when the time comes.

On deck to move into the poll: Iowa, Boise St. and Virginia Tech.

September 8, 2008

BlogPoll Draft Ballot, Week 2

Filed under: Bloggers,Football,Polls — Chas @ 4:24 pm

It’s all about the teams outside of the BCS Conferences. 4 teams from the outside. Heck, if Bowling Green had beaten Minnesota, they would have been in the mix.

Rank Team Delta
1 Southern Cal
2 Georgia
3 Oklahoma 2
4 Ohio State 1
5 LSU 1
6 Missouri 1
7 Florida 1
8 Arizona State 1
9 Texas 2
10 East Carolina 13
11 Wake Forest 1
12 Auburn 1
13 Penn State 7
14 South Florida 2
15 Utah 1
16 Wisconsin 2
17 Texas Tech 1
18 Alabama 3
19 Fresno State 2
20 Oregon 1
21 Brigham Young 2
22 Kansas 4
23 UCLA 1
24 Vanderbilt 2
25 West Virginia 21
Dropped Out: Cincinnati (#22), Michigan State (#25).

I am really agonizing about leaving WVU in the poll. I feel they deserve to drop out completely, but I’m not completely sure who should go in there. Boise State?

Constructive comments and suggestions appreciated. The final ballot is due on Wednesday.

September 3, 2008

BlogPoll — Week One

Filed under: Bloggers,Football,Polls — Chas @ 12:23 am

Well, whatever. A week in, and I’m confused. Almost worse than preseason polling. Making a judgment after only one week.

Rank Team Delta
1 Southern Cal 1
2 Georgia 1
3 Ohio State
4 West Virginia
5 Oklahoma
6 LSU 1
7 Missouri 1
8 Florida 2
9 Arizona State 1
10 Wake Forest 2
11 Texas 5
12 South Florida 1
13 Auburn 2
14 Wisconsin
15 Alabama 11
16 Utah 5
17 Fresno State 8
18 Texas Tech 5
19 Brigham Young 2
20 Penn State
21 Oregon 5
22 Cincinnati 4
23 East Carolina 3
24 UCLA 2
25 Michigan State 1
Dropped Out: Clemson (#9), Virginia Tech (#18), Pittsburgh (#19), North Carolina (#22), Rutgers (#23).

Dart throwing would probably have yielded more defensible results. Probably

August 22, 2008

The preseason blogpoll is complete. Individual balloting by bloggers here. My ballot was here. Pitt gets little love from the college football blogosphere.

I did the visiting lecturer thing about Pitt for Every Day Should Be Saturday a couple days ago.

If you use Google Calendar I put Pitt’s football schedule out there. It includes any TV coverage. If the time is still TBA, I defaulted to 12pm. In the Google Public Calendar search, paste the following Google ID: 9cldc578j0hk5nt7jajmsskp9s@group.calendar.google.com to find it.

Heh.

Cue “Cease and Desist” letter from ESPN in 3… 2…

Finally, the Octonion returns. Just in time.

August 7, 2008

The Rankings Mean Little

Filed under: Football,Polls,Power Rankings — Chas @ 9:18 am

Other than there’s plenty of people aware of Pitt’s potential.

While Pitt may not have made it into the preseason Coaches’ or AP Writers Polls, the Panthers did make it into a couple other preseason lists.

Sports Illustrated put Pitt at #19 in their preseason rankings.

Overachievement is a relatively new concept for these Panthers. Indeed, before Pitt stunned No. 2 West Virginia 13-9 in Morgantown last December, thus keeping its bitter rival from playing for the national championship, coach Dave Wannstedt’s record in two-plus seasons at his alma mater stood at 15-19. But so impressive was the defense in the Backyard Brawl — the unit held West Virginia’s high-powered attack to 183 yards and nine first downs — that few in the Steel City cared that the Panthers couldn’t avoid a third straight nonwinning season.

Now optimism is running high because seven starters are back from that aggressive defense, including senior middle linebacker Scott McKillop, an overachiever of the highest order. After two seasons of special teams duty, the 6′ 2″, 240-pound McKillop got his shot in 2007 and led the nation in tackles (12.6 per game) en route to All-America honors. McKillop relies on an encyclopedic command of Pitt’s defensive scheme and a knack for finding the ball.

Only WVU (#14) from the Big East is included in the SI top-20.

ESPN.com has its preseason power rankings and puts Pitt at #24.

Dave Wannstedt looks like he finally has a team which can compete for the Big East title. With home games vs. Rutgers, Louisville and WVU, we agree.

WVU comes in at #8 and USF #18.

July 30, 2008

Poll Voters in 2008, Big East

Filed under: Fishwrap,Football,Media,Polls — Chas @ 7:30 am

No it’s not part of the BCS poll voting, and this definitely goes in under useless information.  Still the AP Poll is always something watched and debated. I haven’t seen the full list of voters for 2008, but Brett McMurphy of the Tampa Tribune — covers USF — is one of the voters this year and did disclose in his blog who else with Big East ties will be voting.

The others: Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette; Mitch Vingle of The Charleston (WVa.) Gazette; Kent Taylor of WAVE Ch. 3 in Louisville, Ky. and John Silver of the Journal Inquirer in Connecuticut.

Silver is the also has his own blog to focus on UConn football. Taylor already released his pre-season top-25 (he has Pitt #23).

July 29, 2008

At least until the kids insist I stop trying to use the TV as a baby sitter, there will be a lot of quick brief posts from press releases and media day puffery.

How about the Big East pre-season poll by the BE Media? Looks like Rutgers jumped the gun on the press release — the Big East hasn’t even published it officially.

  1. WVU — 22 of 24 1st place votes, 189 points
  2. USF — 1 1st place vote, 149 points
  3. Pitt — 1 1st place vote (really?), 128 points
  4. Rutgers — 110 points
  5. Cinci — 98 points
  6. UConn — 97 points
  7. Louisville — 69 points
  8. Syracuse — 24 points (which means every vote had ‘Cuse dead last)

There’s going to be a lot of questions for whoever gave Pitt a 1st place vote.

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