Here comes our third game in 12 days.  Not a great schedule when you are struggling and coming off close back to back losses.  In both games against Iowa and ND only three points and one or two missed opportunities kept us from a win.  The two games were almost polar opposites in how we played our opponents,  against Iowa our offense was clicking for three quarters until the bearings seized up in the fourth quarter and our defense forgot that the game really is 60 minutes long.  A 21 point deficit was not insurmountable for the Hawkeyes as they came back to swing the momentum and take the win.

In contrast, the ND game was a close, defensive game on both sides, full of penalties by both teams and missed chances to extend a small lead by PITT to secure the win.  We had a last quarter drive when down by three points but ended up going backwards at an alarming rate when close to FG range that would have tied the game.

In both cases it was apparent that this PITT team just doesn’t know how to close out games and can’t understand what it actually takes to win against a good opponent.  We’ll find out if we learned anything by midnight tonight when our game against the University of South Florida has finished.

    USF has a fine offense, ranked high nationally in scoring at 46 ppg (10^th), total offense (10^th), rushing offense 228 ypg(20^th) and passing offense at 295 ypg (23^rd).  I saved the best for last there and hope that isn’t ruining your morning coffee break.  Throw in the fact that USF is also 15^th against the run on defense and things look like they can’t get any worse.

On the national stage PITT comes in at …well, basically nowhere and in fact hits triple digit rankings in two categories; passing defense at 115^th and net punting at 106^th.  The best of the rest, if you want to call it that, is our 35^th ranked rushing defense at 106 ypg.

   So, what does this mean for this evening?  Well, on paper it means we are about to get our ass kicked.

   But Todd Graham believes we are ‘this far” from making the magic happen on both offense, with Sunseri seeing the light all of a sudden, and on defense where our opponent’s QBs dreams of leading the nation in passing by are made.

   The fact that we have heard the same refrain from Graham since the afternoon of September 3^rd isn’t important; what is meaningful is the fact that this time he really, truly means it. He really, truly does! Finally the kids are getting the systems down and are ready to get out there and really execute as envisioned.  Except for the OL of course, that may be a sticking point.

   DiPaola of the T-R has some great quotes from Lucas Nix,  remember him, our star Offensive Lineman?,  detailing what ills the OL;  “I figured line play is line play,” Nix said, “but there is a lot of different stuff involved in this. I figured we’d have it down by now, but it’s obviously more complicated than I thought.”   Not too bad, it only took six months after he first saw the new line play schemes to realize how different it was.  He goes on to explain more fully;

“Last year, we would make a call and pick up a blitz,” he said. “This year, we are stepping back and reading it out and picking it up as we go.

“Last year, we were able to (make a pre-snap call) because we weren’t in this type of offense. We had time to get to the line and read a defense. This year, it’s a lot faster. It’s a matter of us just getting back and reading it on the fly. That’s what’s tough for us right now.”

   All kidding aside, this transition has to be tough for the OL and it certainly isn’t just Nix having a hard time with it.  But as tough as the OL is having it, this is just as hard for every other player who was recruited, taught and played under the previous coaching staff and their way of doing things.  Fans can gripe all they want about the fact that college players should be smart enough to pick up the changes, but I think we bury our head in the sand if we don’t recognize this issue as a real factor in what we are seeing so far this season.

   My heartburn is that I’m not nearly as optimistic as Graham and the players are that this problem, widespread problem at that, is going to magically be resolved over the course of this year.  I don’t think Graham can be more honest about what is happening out on the field.  He’s pretty much just told it like it is; the fact that there is a breakdown on both the coaching staff’s part in teaching the new systems and the players in being able to understand and apply those teachings in the games.

The scariest part is that Graham has mentioned problems across the board with not understanding roles and responsibilities.  No group of players has been immune it seems, which leads one to believe it is systemic in nature and can only be fixed by changing those systems in peril.  Ain’t going to happen folks, no matter how intelligent I try to be when explaining it.

Graham is locked in for 2011 and no matter how much he says he is simplifying the approach; it is still vastly different than anything these kids have worked before.  This is the horse he rode in on and the one he will ride into battle, no matter how hobbled it may be.

   So – how does that impact our game against USF this evening?  Here’s how; they have a QB who has led that team for four years now and done a good job in doing so.  He’s having a career year this season and has all the confidence in the world, as do his teammates in him.

Stand by for heavy rolls as he rips us up tonight.  The problems we have in our back eight pass coverage, specifically our four, (or three, or five depending on how confused they are) linebackers is going to be like crack cocaine to USF’s passing game.  They will get a taste early (“The first one’s free!!”) and then they’ll keep coming back for more and more.  USF has given up five total sacks this season so the supposed strength of our pass defense, DL pressure, will be minimized.  We aren’t advanced enough in our progress to overcome these fundamental problems that has plagued us in each game so far this year and against lesser opponents than USF.

   Offensively we could  come around a bit as the passing game may smooth out a little,  but I don’t expect it to be able to carry the day anytime soon so that won’t be enough for us to outscore USF, which will take a lot of points.  Our running game, the most overrated part of our offense, will fall short and it will be ugly out there.

   Sorry, I’m not optimistic at all about this match.  I think USF deserves it #16 ranking this time and shows why against PITT tonight.

38-17 USF

What are your predictions?