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July 28, 2015

We’ve talked on here about how great it is to have landed a defensive ‘genius’ as our Head Coach, especially after the rather disastrous showing by our Panther defense in some of our close losses over the past two years.  It is nice that we have a HC with a defensive bias, especially after spending three years with Paul Chryst who pretty much ignored the defense and left it in the hands of an inexperienced and overwhelmed DC in his last two years at PITT. (Surprisingly, in Chryst’s first year of 2012 with Defensive Coordinator Dave Huxtable running the defense was ranked 17th overall.  Still we pulled in seven losses.)

When looking back on our defensive shortcomings last year the low point was the knife in the neck, thrust by DC Matt House, that gave us the quick bleed-out defensive trauma in the bowl loss against Houston.

We boldly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on the strength of our Swiss-cheese defense allowing three TDs in the last 3:41 of the game.  It was apparent that our defense was so confused and upset out there trying to get them in the proper positions pre-snap was like herding cats. That game, as sadly negative as possible and even worse than the ‘Same Old Pitt’ games, will be remembered for eternity.

The defensive lapse problem wasn’t limited to that particular game but occurred in our losses during the regular season also.  In the table below we see how poorly our defense played in five losses where we allowed the opponent to come back in the second half to take the lead and the win.

Opponent  Score at Halftime 2nd Half Points Scored Final Score
Iowa 7-10 Pitt Iowa 17;    Pitt  10 24-20  L
Akron 7-7 Akron 14;  Pitt  3 21-10  L
Duke 28-28 Duke 23;   Pitt  20 51-48  L
UNC 21-13 Pitt UNC 27;    Pitt  14 40-35  L
Houston 17-6 Pitt Hou 29;    Pitt  17 35-34  L

What does table that tell us? Two things really; first our offense got better at scoring 2nd half points as the season went on…Yeah for us!  But more importantly, it shows how truly horrid our defense was in the 2nd half of our losses.  Look at it more closely and you’ll see that in those five losses we gave up an average of 22 points in the 2nd half!  22 points on average!  Here, let me say that one last time…22 frickin’ points in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Get what I’m saying?

So how do we go about changing that as soon as possible?  Can we do it as soon as the 2015 season?  Most Pitt fans say yes, not only can we but we will be much better.  There are valid questions to that belief, but let’s first review we have done over the off season to rectify the ‘Big Problem’ (which also centered on not having this).

Well, the first thought that came to Pitt’s collective minds was to hire a defensive minded HC, which we did in MSU’s Pat Narduzzi.  The second was to have him select and hire a DC who he feels he work with and can have execute his overall defensive planning. Narduzzi hired Florida International University’s (FIU) Josh Conklin for that position.

The third was for Pitt to give Narduzzi and his staff adequate resources to be able to recruit defensive players that he and Coach Conklin want to have on the roster so to succeed in avoiding what happened to Pitt football in this last season.  Immediate impact recruiting, especially on the defensive side, is very hard to accomplish but you can’t build a good defense without good players.

So, one of the above points is an immediate fix (Narduzzi & Conklin)  and the other is for the future… or is it?  It all boils down to the age old question of ‘Which came first; the chicken (good defensive coaching) or the egg (existing defensive player’s talent)?

The reality of this situation is that we are going into this season with a HC who in his first DC job at MSU took a full four years until the roster was almost totally populated with his recruits to show signs of a decent defense.  Listed here are Narduzzi’s results in his first four years as the DC at MSU.

His defenses put up continually worse results in almost all categories in each of his first three years before he steadied out a bit in his 4th season.  Keep in mind that all the rankings listed are out of 120 D1/BCS teams.

Year Rushing Yards Passing Yards Pass Efficiency Scoring PPG Total D (YPG)
 ‘07 30th / 125 44th / 219 63rd / 126 57th / 26.6 32nd / 345
‘08 67th / 147 69th / 213 37th / 115 44th / 22.1 58th / 355
‘09 24th / 113 112th / 268 101st / 141 67th / 26.9 73rd / 380
‘10 37th / 134 60th / 220 43rd / 121 39th / 22.3 43rd / 354

Not real pretty and we want much better.  We will get back to Narduzzi’s past results in a moment also…

Narduzzi’s start as a DC is much the same situation as Conklin will be facing now regarding inherited defensive talent. We had only one 3rd team All-ACC on defense in LB Anthony Gonzalez and he’s graduated.  Save him we had no post-season award/selection recognition for any others on defense.  That last point is the basis of the apparent lack of talent in returning players who Conklin is working with.  (More on individual players later…)

Here is Josh Conklin’s staff experience and record. One could look at his past results and think he was a failure in his first job as the DC of  (FIU).  His defense’s weren’t very good and contributed to FIU losing 19 games over the last two years. Granted, he didn’t have much of an offense to complement and help the defense as Pitt had last season, and at FIU he was using inherited (poor) players much like Narduzzi had in the beginning of his tenure as MSU’s DC.  While you certainly can’t pin those losses on Conklin alone it isn’t impressive to see how badly the team played.

With that one has to wonder why Narduzzi specifically chose Conklin rather than other more experienced and successful DCs who could be lured away from their present positions.  But nothing is always as it seems, especially with sports and stats. Personalities and relationship sometimes trump logic.

In hoping that is the case here let’s take a detailed look at Conklin’s results during his time as the DC at FIU.  Also listed is are the ’12’s Tennessee team’s defense stats when he was the Safety coach there – not that that means much in this context but I wanted to provide some additional background.

Year Rushing Passing Pass Efficiency Scoring Total D (YPG)
Tenn ’12 * 85th / 189* yds 111th / 282* yds 86th / 139* 104th / 35.7* yds 107th / 471* yds
FIU ‘13 99th  / 205 54th / 224 116th / 161 110th / 37.0 94th / 430
FIU ’14  54th / 160 29th / 203 99th / 115 40th / 24.8 35th / 364
PITT14 55th / 60.8 24th / 189.9 43rd / 122 58th / 26.3 33rd / 359.8

* = Conklin’s year as the Safety coach at Tennessee.

It appears that Narduzzi did disregarded Conklin’s factual results as a DC and liked what he saw in Conklin’s football personality in molding aggressive and turnover producing defenses so much it clinched his decision to hire him.  Many have been hired on lesser reasons. This reason of hire could very well be the tipping point from an inept to a solid defense especially as we were horrid in that area. Here are those sterling FIU TO stats compared to our less desirable ones:

Team TOs Gained Fumbles INTs Rank Nationally
FIU 33 (2.75 per game) 19 (1.6 per) 14 (1.2 per) 5th
Pitt 14 (1.1 per) 4 (0.3 per) 10  (0.8 per) 113th

That 19 fumbles covered is truly outstanding and it is hard to believe that a team can create almost three TOs per game on a consistent basis… if we get that type of play things will look pretty bright.

In his new position Narduzzi’s biggest adjustment will be that he isn’t the DC and while he’ll obviously be involved he won’t be the prime decision maker during the games, nor should he be.  His job is to set defensive policy and steer his staff into meeting his goals for how the defense should work and produce.  It isn’t to be calling defenses or making in-game personnel decisions that undercut his DC position with Conklin’s defensive staff and players.

Unless of course we see the same sort of crap defensive play this year under Conklin as we did with House last year… then Narduzzi damned well better get directly involved.  Of course, as the HC he can question the quality of his DC’s decisions and have Conklin cinch up the game’s defensive game plan to adjust to the opponent’s successes on offense.

That is where Narduzzi’s defensive experience will help PITT this season. We all know by now what Narduzzi did in his last four years at MSU.  His defense got better each season and ended up being one of the best in the country across the board of defense in 2014.  But the situation of those last four years as a DC at MSU compared now to what’s he’s seeing in his first year as HC at PITT are two different animals.

The football theory dissimilarities between Narduzzi and Chryst are also as mentioned above; Chryst didn’t have the defensive acumen to intervene with his DC’s running of the defense in overall planning or in-game strategy when needed.  That combined with an inept and inexperienced newly-promoted DC in Matt House killed us in the long run.  Chryst’s influence on the offense was clear, his no-hands-on approach to the defense, even as it was sinking our ship, was pathetic.

A similarity of this season as compared with Narduzzi’s first four years stated above is that neither he nor Conklin will have players of their choosing who may get two-deep playing time save true FR LB Saleem Brightwell and JUCO transfer JR DE Allen Edwards. Pitt fans seem to be setting their caps on these two new players really contributing but they are both average rated recruits and are untested at this level of play.  Luckily the staff will also have true FR Safety Jordan Whitehead whose talent could go a long way in smoothing out Narduzzi and Conklin’s first year at Pitt.

What they have to work with are returning defensive players who were mostly unsuccessful in pulling their weight as a unit last season, especially in the clutch times as seen in the ‘Second Half Defense’ chart above.  We are replacing two three year starters at LB in Todd Thomas and Anthony Gonzalez with upperclassmen who weren’t good enough to win a starting position other than by default.

Some other players showed promise and made some good plays over the year but any new and better talent will most probably be from guys who were never starters before like DE Rori Blair, DT Tyrique Jarrett, DB Terrish Webb, etc.  There is also the hanging question of how much Rori Blair will be able to contribute early in the schedule due to his pending  disciplinary actions.

This brings us back to whether we’ll see a big difference in PITT’s defense and just how good it will actually be.  In looking at all the results these two coaches have had both in their past jobs and factoring in talent level of the returning players they have to work with I’m not overly optimistic.  I don’t feel the same as other fans do who assume just because we have Narduzzi with his defensive experience we’ll automatically see a 180 degree change.

In two or three years we’ll start really benefiting from Narduzzi’s hire when it comes to defense.  He and Conklin will have their own favored systems in place, will have worked together and understand each other as a team for a year or two and, perhaps most importantly, will have a roster with their players recruited specifically to play in those systems.

But will they have major success right off the bat in Year One just because we hired Narduzzi?

There are way too many variables to be convinced that by itself will turn the defense around.  Narduzzi has a strong background in defensive arts but the bottom line is that he’ll be the HC and Conklin will be in the position where the rubber meets the road and he’s completely unproven as far as defensive successes go.

We are probably not going to see a big jump happen like we hope it will. We should keep our fingers crossed for a better defense in the aggressive way they play.  That is the biggest area of progress we’ll have.  which will get us more turnovers , give the offense shorter fields to score in and will create positive breaks that were missing in our losses last year.

But the defining description of a good defense is wherheter of tnot that defense alone can carry the team to a win if the offense is faltering that game.  At this point with Pitt that isn’t the case and we’ll see if that can happen throughout the upcoming season.  Let’s hope it gets better in keeping the opponents score down by a few ticks per game and not having any Houston-like meltdowns. That alone would be +1 in the win column.

If the defense can do those things then we will have the “Narduzzi Turnaround” we hoped for.  If not, then we will be on the more realistic two year track for major changes to the success of the defense.

 

 





I know you have heard that 60 is the new 40… Well Thursday evening is the new Friday evening… Cheers Men of Pitt… Bottoms up! Next week we hear from Wheeler…

Comment by BigB 07.30.15 @ 6:17 pm

But that ‘thing’ has that elusive ‘gold’ molecule that Pitt has been trying to reclaim since ’76. Not sure what is most appropriate to describe ‘him’ or ‘her.’ For whatever its worth, need to be true to yourself.

Comment by TX Panther 07.30.15 @ 6:24 pm

how now brown cow

Comment by Dan 07.30.15 @ 7:22 pm

Just to divert to the thread topic for a second … Me thinks the linebackers will be our weak link..Achilles tendon… Defensive line will pleasantly surprise

Comment by BigB 07.30.15 @ 7:45 pm

Grigsby.. Galambos .. Bradley not too impressive as starters… Who do we have behind them with any experience?

Comment by BigB 07.30.15 @ 7:49 pm

I think Grigsby and Bradley could be much better in a Nard Dog defense.

Well one thing for certain, they shouldn’t be out of position, lined up wrong or 10 yards from the line of scrimmage.

Bradley was effective in the bowl game, until the last 5 minutes of the game, when they went into the OutHouse prevent win defense. He had like a sack, a TFL and 4-5 tackles.

Galambos on the other hand…. would have to go thru a complete metamorphosis.

Comment by Emel 07.30.15 @ 8:09 pm

Buckeyes suspend 4 players for the opener vs the Gobblers including AllAmerican DE Joey Bosa for violation of team rules… VT was the only team to defeat the Bugeyes during their National Championship season.. Think that one through .. We all know we coulda shoulda won ten games last year and we beat the only team who beat the national Champs…Shit .. We could have had our 10th NC!!! Battle Cry for 2015… 10-2 Is It PITT!! TT order the team some
T’s with the battle Cry on their chest,,I’ll pay for 1/2 the cost

Comment by BigB 07.30.15 @ 8:11 pm

Poteat was switched to LB, so maybe we’ll catch lightning in a bottle…ala Zeke Gadson.

And perhaps the Wirginis kid will come on, seemed like he had some speed on special teams.

Comment by Emel 07.30.15 @ 8:16 pm

Had they not chased off the DC who was here in Paulie’s first year, we would have won at least 8 or 9 games last year.

Seems he was too boisterous for the melbatoast Paulie.

Comment by Emel 07.30.15 @ 8:20 pm

So, Akron beat Pitt who beat VT who beat Ohio St. Maybe Akron should have won the NC.

H2P

Comment by panther94 07.30.15 @ 8:25 pm

Tossing,
I’m signing that letter right with you … Just let me know.

Comment by 9-2,8-4,11-1,11-1,11-1 07.30.15 @ 8:35 pm

We were clearly outcoached in the Akron game.

Cause they were only 3-5 in the MAC and 5-7 overall.

Hell Buffalo put up 55 points on them and Marshall 48.

Comment by Emel 07.30.15 @ 8:42 pm

Btw I hate the Cincinnati Reds !!!

Have since 1970.

Comment by Emel 07.30.15 @ 8:43 pm

Those a-holes beat us in the first Pirate game and sporting event ever played at 3 Rivers Stadium. July of 1970.

And Emel was there. Hated them ever since.

Comment by Emel 07.30.15 @ 8:46 pm

I was there too Emel. Hate the Reds as well, especially Pete Rose. I remember a jerk running on the field. Bet the cops gave him a serious beating.

Comment by gc 07.30.15 @ 9:11 pm

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 07.30.15 @ 9:16 pm

That was no jerk, that was Emel, the putz.

Comment by Dr. Tom 07.30.15 @ 9:26 pm

Emel, I was at that first game at 3 Rivers also. Seems like a 100 yrs ago! LOL

Comment by pittman4ever 07.30.15 @ 10:23 pm

I still have my ticket guys. It was large Souvenir style ticket. Might have been the first one of it’s kind for the Pirates.

Yea I couldn’t stand Charlie Hustle either.. gc

Doc are you back into the nitrous again. Bad putz. ha

Comment by Emel 07.31.15 @ 12:58 am

~ TT

EJ needs to get with the Script !!!

Comment by Emel 07.31.15 @ 1:01 am

Take a look at the mid-section of the 2015 preseason college FB poll:

15. Ole Miss – 668
16. Arizona State – 577
17. Georgia Tech – 573
18. Wisconsin – 470
19. Oklahoma – 407

If we find a way to beat #17 and catch some of TT’s expectations with “lightning in a bottle”, we could be playing anyone of the other four teams listed in a nice bowl match-up.

Ole Miss and HC Freeze have done a nice job since blowing Pitt off the field in the Birmingham bowl a few years back – proof that Pitt can get back to top 20 status consistently.

ASU – do we need to say anything about this match-up? Get out of town…Bowl or The Fraud Protection Bowl – you name it!

Wisconsin – Awe, how about the Cheese Bowl or the Alvarez Bowl

Oklahoma – HC Stoops is from Youngstown –

I’ll settle for one of those ranking spots at seasons end (sorry for settling instead of expecting TT – but I think very strongly too that 10-2 is reachable). Get there in the polls and that should put Pitt in a nice, sunny bowl location (not in Detroit, NYC, DC nor Birmingham).

HTP!

Comment by Erie Express 07.31.15 @ 5:00 am

Emel – haha – just noticed that. You’re right!

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 07.31.15 @ 7:58 am

SFPitt – regarding your comment above about ‘Narduzzi’s hardest job’…

I think we are saying the same thing and that is Narduzzi needs to be a complete HC first and then dip into other areas after that.

Comment by Reed 07.31.15 @ 8:13 am

@Emel Maybe we catch lightning in a bottle but better odds say Poteat will be a bench player. Galambos might be the starter in the beginning but I do not see that happening for long. Personally I don’t think he’s very good, we’ll find out what PN thinks. I’m betting PN is not going to put up with his lack of speed. If the guys behind him cannot beat him out, that is not good.

Comment by bj 07.31.15 @ 8:20 am

Wow this thread is getting pretty long. I’m developing Carpal Tunnel just scrolling down. ha

Agree bj

Only reason Galambos is on the field would be perhaps to call the defensive signals or if there is nobody better than him. Which again points to Paulie’s/OutHouse’s inability to recruit LB’s and DE’s.

Comment by Emel 07.31.15 @ 9:30 am

What about joke article in the paper yesterday?

Comment by Kman 07.31.15 @ 9:32 am

Kman – It’s def BS because it was written with an agenda but it’s also kind of right. Pitt:PSU :: WVU:Pitt

The difference is that it was the old administration that was begging PSU. This new administration had no input into what happened before and I believe them when they say they won’t beg.

Both PSU and WVU need to be on the schedule even if alternating years. Screw giving up recruiting grounds. For the good of college football and rivalries they both should be on the schedule.

The fact that us Pitt fans don’t like going to Morgantown because of their fans I, personally, think is how it should be. Unruly fans are part of sports. Just don’t voluntarily go to Morgantown.

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 07.31.15 @ 9:53 am

BTW – PSU fans think of Pitt fans the same way as we think of WVU fans. They think we’re unruly neanderthals that wanna be PSU. We know it’s BS but that’s the perception out there.

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 07.31.15 @ 9:58 am

Somebody should tweet this a-hole and the Big Joke, that Mike Ditka was a Pitt Man !!!

link to twitter.com

Comment by Emel 07.31.15 @ 10:23 am

Let’s be honest – it is a shame that Pitt – PSU and WVU aren’t playing each other every year.

At least Pitt + PSU and Pitt + WVU.

PSU does have a point that they are a full East to West state school who have alumni in the Eastern part of PA also but to not play Pitt on a regular basis… no matter how good or bad either team is, is sort of an insult to tradition. Everyone involved, both Pitt and PSU fans looked forward all season to those November games.

I’m working on an article for the weekend reading…

Comment by Reed 07.31.15 @ 10:28 am

“Where’s the guy with my favorite name on here?”

Just lurking. Loved that someone called Woody a neanderthal. It doesn’t stop restaurants from putting his picture up all over Columbus, though. I try not to sit near them. Spoils my appetite.

Comment by OhHowIhateOhioState 07.31.15 @ 10:31 am

That was the same person who requested your presence…..OhHowIhateOhioState. lol

Comment by Emel 07.31.15 @ 10:37 am

That’s gotta be kinda creepy as well, living in Columbus with all those drooling *ucknuts around 24/7/365.

Personally I don’t think I could handle it. Cudos to you sir !

Comment by Emel 07.31.15 @ 10:41 am

@Kman, what article?? Is there a link somewhere on here, or could you link it.

Trib or Post?

Comment by Dan 07.31.15 @ 11:03 am

Is this the article Kman was referring. Post Gazette article written by Adam Bittner (who I believe is the Penn State reporter).

link to post-gazette.com

Comment by PITT-cocks Fan 07.31.15 @ 12:13 pm

Looks like it Pitt-cocks Fan, thank you!

Comment by Dan 07.31.15 @ 1:03 pm

Full page expose on tOSU Marching Band in the July 31 WSJ. link to wsj.com

Comment by OhHowIhateOhioState 07.31.15 @ 3:00 pm

Political Correctness at it’s finest (sarc).

While obviously not a fan of the tOSU, glad to see someone resisting this non-sense.

Comment by Emel 07.31.15 @ 4:18 pm

Quite a lengthy article from the WSJ. You’d think with with all the economic problems, Greece bankrupt, the EU teetering, Puerto Rico bankrupt, Italy, Spain & Portugal next.

They’d have more important things to write on.

Comment by Emel 07.31.15 @ 4:24 pm

Emil,

They do cover all the problems you mention but usually have a sports story on Friday.
Been proudly wearing my Pitt t-shirts every chance I get.

Comment by OhHowIhateOhioState 08.01.15 @ 9:37 am

I think it’s pretty clear from AD Barbour and Franklins comments that at best, we can hope for a home and home once every decade with the nits. Once the Barnes-Barbour meeting takes place and we get some clarity regarding the Nitwitts we should immediately move to lock down WVU for the longest deal possible. We don’t have our stadium, we have few traditions — we need a real rival on the schedule every year. I hate WVU and they hate us. That’s what makes it great! You gotta play those games.

As to Tossing – good news my friend, Narduzzi agrees with you. I don’t know if you had the chance to watch/listen to his ESPN media blitz last week, but said over and over that his goal was to win championships. When he was asked on college football live what he was goal was for his first season he said win the ACC championship. No caveats or equivocation. The interviewer asked if that was realistic and he said “absolutely.” Narduzzi will view and does view any season without winning the ACC as a failure.

I don’t remember who said it, God you guys can write, but someone questioned whether Gallagher is really committed because we hired another coordinator. First, Narduzzi has been universal declared a fantastic hire by the national media. Second, Gallagher and interim AD Juhl said that Narduzzi’s recruiting and assistant budgets had been raised to be in the top half of the ACC. Third, as of next week, a $4 million renovation of the Pitt practice facilities will be completed.

So in the last 8 months Gallagher has authorized the expenditure of conservatively $5 million more dollars for football. If that doesn’t prove and increased commitment I don’t know what does.

Comment by PittHW 08.01.15 @ 2:56 pm

PittHW – Amen.

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 08.02.15 @ 7:43 pm

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