You would think that at the one quarter point in the season we’d have a solid idea of how good the team is and how well the primary players are producing. It seems not to be the case this season for PITT. Granted we are 3-0 going into Saturday’s noon game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Heinz Field but really doesn’t feel like 3-0 given who the wins were over.
Delaware and FIU are both teams that PITT should beat handily even if the PITT team isn’t that great and in essence we did that, so for an optimist that is OK. Beating Boston College up in Boston is on a different degree of difficulty level and the Boston College Catholics, err…I mean Golden Eagles, pretty much looked like a lost team out there for the majority of the game. But they did have a couple of big plays early for scores and recovered an onside kick at the end of the game so at least there was some tension during that game.
But PITT fans jumped on those first two wins and used those results to then assume that we would charge out of the gate and start whipping up FIU from the opening kickoff. That didn’t happen until late in the 2nd quarter when Voytik lead a nice five play 52 yard scoring drive to close the score to 16-14 FIU. From that point on and through the 2nd half we had good control of the ballgame.
This brings us to this week’s match and the Iowa team who is coming to visit us in Pittsburgh. Usually anytime PITT plays a Big Ten team we’d look at it as a game with a tough opponent and a chance to lift PITT’s stature with a win.
Those two things are still semi-valid although this season the Big Ten is getting their asses kick by other conferences on a regular basis. Plus, Iowa hasn’t exactly been burning up the football field with their play. They won their first two games against Northern Illinois and Ball State by eight points and three points respectively. Again, not a powerhouse’s showing.
Combine that with a three point loss to a rather poor in-state rival, Iowa State, and we should have all the reason in the world to be skipping and singing from our tailgate parties (Lot 7C Red, in front of the Clark Bldg) to the seats we have for the game. But we are PITT fans and won’t do that because WE ARE JUST NOT SURE!
We’ll never be sure even when we watched Boston College turn around and manhandle USC doing all the things they needed to win couldn’t do against us. So, if we kick the snot out of Iowa and beat Akron the next week –it will still be our time to worry about VT.
Toss on top of the early concerns about our passing game and we nervous types add more fuel to the worry fire. Is our OL to blame for poor pass protection? (No); are our WRs taking plays off halfway into the route so the QB can’t hit them? (no, and I actually read that); is our QB good enough to win if Iowa shuts down our run game? (big concern).
I say big concern because Iowa is doing just that to their opponents. They are currently 6th nationally in rushing defense allowing only 65.7 ypg. They back that up with an OK scoring defense that gives up 18.7 ppg. So they may well be able to put some breaks on our run game but I’ll expect we roll up a lot more than 65 yards, but we won’t get our 334 ypg.
I see somewhere around 175-200 yards on the ground for us which means we will almost certainly have to supplement that with a effective passing game. Voytik doesn’t have to win the game by himself, but another 100+ rushing yards from him would be nice. All he has to down is move the ball toward 1st downs and get us into Iowa’s red zone where the RBs and Blewitt, or Voytik himself, can put points on the board.
On the other side of the ball I don’t see a lot of problems areas for our defensive units. Remember the quality of Iowa’s opponents and then look at this: 61st in passing offense with 246.0 ypg; 92nd in rushing offense with 131 ypg and 99th in scoring at 21.7 ppg. Nothing there scares me so hopefully Iowa will run true to form in their fourth game.
Phil Steel picked Iowa to share 2nd place in the Big Ten’s West division but that may be a pipe dream now. The Hawkeyes do have some good players though: All-Big Ten OT Brandon Schreff tore up a knee earlier in the season but still played last week against Iowa State but he’s listed as day-to-day by Pittsburgh’s own HC Kirk Frenetz.
However, the above aside, JR QB Jake Rudock returns as a second year starter and can throw the ball. Already in three games he has 80 completions in 117 tries for a 68.4 completion percentage (very good) and has 718 total passing yards so far for 240 ypg. All this makes him a concern for our mostly young and inexperienced DBs.
I trust our DBs athletic skills, which maybe the best we’ve had in years, but we’ve seen some big errors for long plays from our opponents. The key will be keeping those receivers in front of them.
I think we’ll play well, maybe better than some expect, and we’ll carry the day but it will be closer than we’d like it to be. I’ll post a ‘Predictions” article toward the end of the week but I’ll take a shot here also.
Lower scoring and hard fought on Saturday:
27-21 PITT.
That being said, still a lot of unknowns. Will our running game stand up to a better D? Is the Iowa D as good as their numbers or was it the competition.
Will we hold up against a slightly better QB?
I like our chances, especially if we go up early. Unfortunately a win still does not answer the question “How good are we?”
A 50,000 + crowd sure would be nice. A two touchdown victory gets us in the top 25.
Chryst is a big ten coach, I think we are built to win this game.
link to blackheartgoldpants.com
Reed – I like the 27 but Iowa only scores 17
Pitt 27 – Iowa 17
The line on the game has PITT giving more points now.
It’s up to Pitt giving 7 points.
Good points PittHW
The pass blocking is suspect and only Chad’s legs have saved us from more sacks. Perfect example was the first series against BC, Chad’s legs produced the first BIG PLAY of the game. A sack there in previous years could have set a different tone for the entire game.
After seeing Chad run for over 100 yards last week I wouldn’t mind seeing a little Veer offense installed to take additional advantage of Chad’s running ability.
–Watched some of Iowa’s game last week – I guess he could play lights out against Pitt, but I wasn’t impressed with the Hawkeye QB. Just didn’t seem scary to defend. Uh oh – bulletin board material…
–Also – I shouldn’t say this, but I was not impressed with the Iowa back seven on defense (more bulletin board material!).
–Prediction: Ibrahim will score on a wheel play (just like ISU did)…
–I still can’t quite believe we beat BC and we’re 3 and O. So far, not your typical Pitt season.
Go Pitt.
and thinking a bit more about the Iowa run defense.
I will also add that I think we will really see how well our new S&C coach is holding up his end of the bargain during the Iowa game.
Maddox, Mitchell and Webb – all who are getting major playing time – are excellent athletes and the fastest players on the team. The make up the bulk of the DBs when the playing minutes are tallied up.
New York – I’m not looking past Virginia – I saying that we’ll probably feel the same nervousness up until VT. The pass blocking isn’t as bad as everyone thinks. First off our QB has been sacked three times in three games – that’s good anyway you cut it. Secondly, Voytik is bagging out way too soon to give the OL guys a chance to block up a pocket for him to step up into. I think I’ve seen only a handful of drop back plays where Voytik actually steps up and sets himself.
That is part of what he has to learn to do and what Chryst was referring to when he said this about Voytik’s play: “I thought he seemed pretty composed just going through it,” Chryst said. “Going back, I thought he made some throws and it got a little fast on him on a couple of things. We’ve just got to slow him down, but I thought he did some OK things.”
That is in reference to his leaving the pocket too soon and the media have been talking about it also. It is one of the things he has yet to learn to do regularly and that is to put some trust in his OL.
1. James Conner
544
2. Aaron Jones
543
3. D.J. Foster
510
4. Nick Wilson
449
5. Tevin Coleman
437
Complete Leaders
I think this is a tough game for our plodder back and a bigger game for James and Ibrahim. Speed beats slowness. Haven’t studied their chart yet. Surprised Schnerff was back five days after meniscus surgery. Good for him and hope he doesn’t reinjure. They must not have found anything structurally and the integrity must be fine.
The fighting Ferrences will be tough this week. Will read up on them a little bit more before predicting a victory. Carpe’ Hawkeyes!
I’m talking DBs as a whole – Pitts seems a bit better than last season but he’s just OK. I got no problem with Vinopal or the other guys. Yes – big plays have occurred against our defense but we are not and probably never will be the type of team that shuts down every opponent’s offense we face. The big gainers happen and will continue to happen to both teams on the field. The key is to stop the everyday normal runs and passes on a regular basis to force punts and low scores.
We are doing well at that.
Conner is fast as hell for 250 lbs. Timed as 4.4+ in camp and he gets around the corners on a regular basis. He looks plodding because on his rushes up the middle he’s usually dragging three guys with him for five yards and that slows things down.
Here is an interesting page I just found – it shows current “Strength of Schedule”. PITT’s future opponents are 10-5 at this point with a rating of .667. Someone else look at it and tell me if I’m correct in this – it is pretty confusing.
These NCAA websites are very detailed and official – you can mess around with them all day. Here is the PITT page:
… and here is the NCAA 2014 PITT Web page:
Post: link to post-gazette.com
Trib: link to triblive.com
We’ll see how they do, I don’t see a shutdown of Iowa’s passing game but I don’t see them throwing the ball all over the field for TDs either. Sooner or later, as the gist of the Blather article above states, we’ll get a handle on exactly how good the team and the team’s individual units are. This game will be a good litmus test.
“Call me crazy”
Only too happy to oblige!
I can’t find the “future strength of schedule” info that you mention. Point me to it and I will be happy to let you know what I think. I am not good at much, but math is one thing that I do well.
H2P
It excludes FCS opponents & head to head results.
For PITT, our played opponents are 2-0 against FBS teams (exclude Delaware, BC is 2-0 (W’s over UMass & So Cal) & FIU other two games where against FCS teams.
Future opponents are a combined 10-5 against FBS teams.
@pmdH2P – Go to Reed’s link & it is under misc reports.
H2P
Another mention was that Witherspoon looked surprisingly slow coming out of the end zone on one of those kicks. Hoping it was a turf problem like the others had.
Nice article about Conner today. They mention him as a plower not a plodder……If you find a better way to link it, it is well worth the read. I actually laughed out loud with one of the visuals.
Apparently the unrelated DB Coach and unrelated local writer’s picked up on what I have been saying for the last two weeks after watching the games and the coaches tape. It’s nothing special and not difficult to figure out. It was my opinion that’s all. I almost feel like Upitt after that remark…Sheeesh!
1. “Is our OL to blame for poor pass protection? (No)” I’m really surprised you feel this way. The pass protection has really not been good at all, it only seems better because Voytik has escaped the collapsing pocket so well and hasn’t been sacked much. I’ve tried to pay careful attention to the pocket on those rare occasions when we’ve passed and the protection has really not stood up well at all. I think a lot of people see how well we are doing in the run blocking and just assume we’re doing OK in pass protection too.
2. “I trust our DBs athletic skills, which maybe the best we’ve had in years, but we’ve seen some big errors for long plays from our opponents.” Your caveat notwithstanding, I am very unimpressed with their work this season. Honestly, they’re even worse than I thought they’d be. Especially Pitts, he just can’t get it going. This is the first good QB we’ve faced and I really have a hard time believing he’s not going to have a good day against our DBs.