Shh. Make sure Pitt players don’t read this. They don’t need to feel too cocky.

How can ETSU score on Pittsburgh if it can’t even score on itself?

I just sat through the ETSU practice, where the Bucs ran up and down the court in a series of 4-on-3, 3-on-2, and even 2-on-1 scoring opportunities. And the Bucs couldn’t score. Almost ever.

Don’t get the wrong idea. ETSU doesn’t appear to have a great defense. The Bucs simply couldn’t make a shot. Mike Smith, their No. 2 scorer at 15.5 ppg, was particularly atrocious. Granted, this was practice. And maybe the Bucs are nervous. But the arena is empty and the television cameras are turned off and the players on defense are teammates, not killers from Pittsburgh.

If ETSU is nervous now … ETSU is in big trouble on Friday.

Basketball Prospectus has their log5 probability chart as to who comes out of the East. Take it for whatever it’s worth. In the same breath, they do capsules of each team.

Hopefully Pitt coaches and players are taking it one game at a time. Everyone else is already looking longer at Pitt as a storyline.

Pittsburgh: DeJuan Blair raises them from an OK defensive team to a good one, so any time he goes to the bench with foul trouble, bad things can happen. That’s the biggest reason to worry about their chances, because they need Blair to avoid foul trouble for six straight games to win the title. Their ridiculously efficient offense is also keyed by Blair, who recovers nearly one in four of their missed shots. All the Sam Young in the world won’t save them in the game Blair plays 19 minutes.

They also hit on Oklahoma State and give them a “punchers chance” against Pitt should they meet.

Not that Pitt is likely to play zone to protect Blair.

4. Can Pitt finally get past the Sweet 16?

During this decade, Pittsburgh has elbowed its way to the top of the college basketball hierarchy, only to tumble down the mountain — often earlier than expected — in the tournament. Since 2002, the Panthers have been seeded third, second, third, ninth, fifth, third and fourth, yet they have never advanced past the Sweet 16. Five times they’ve been eliminated by a lower-seeded team, most notably in 2006 when 13th-seed Bradley beat No. 4 Pitt in the second round.

This year should be different. The Panthers received a No. 1 seed for the first time, giving them the most favorable draw they’ve ever had. More significant, the Panthers rank second nationally in rebound differential and 10th in field-goal percentage. Don’t expect a Pitt stop anywhere short of the Elite Eight.

It’s the same theme here and  here.

Pitt coach Jamie Dixon doesn’t shy away from the obvious: For the Panthers to be taken seriously as one of the premier programs nationally, getting to a Final Four usually helps promote the premise.

Assuming Dixon stays at Pitt, and there’s no reason why he won’t, the Panthers will have other opportunities to advance. But during Dixon’s career he has never had the pieces in place the way he does this March.

…

Pitt won’t be considered a lesser program if it bows out early, but this is Pitt’s best shot to alter its image to the mainstream fan. A major difference this season is the Panthers are a No. 1 seed. That provides them the better opportunity to at least get to the Sweet 16. Beating Oklahoma State or Tennessee won’t be a walk since both are capable of running past the Panthers. But Pitt should be favored to get at least through the second round, where it could have a rematch with Florida State, a team the Panthers already beat earlier this season. The Panthers haven’t been to the Elite Eight since 1974.

No pressure or anything.