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October 26, 2007

Misleading stats cut both ways. We’ve read how Coach Wannstedt talked up Pitt’s pass defense as being one of the tops in the country statistically, while then excusing the lack of turnovers as because teams have big leads and didn’t have any pressure to do much other than run the ball. At the same time, he talks of how the run defense has improved and excuses the Navy game as an aberration (or “not reflective”).

Obviously reality gets examined this weekend. Pitt will play a team with prolific passing, but a struggling running game.

The Cardinals (4-4, 1-2 Big East Conference) still rank fifth in the Football Bowl Subdivision in total offense at 529 yards per game, but they have been held below 100 rushing yards in four of their past five games.

Pittsburgh (3-4, 1-1) will enter Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium tomorrow ranked

Nationally, that puts Pitt’s run defense at 54th in the country. Louisville’s longest run from scrimmage this season has been 20 yards. Of course with one of the best QBs and probably the best pair of receivers in the country, the running game hasn’t been the problem. It’s been the Louisville Defense.

The running game leads into a topic of Coach Wannstedt in the papers today: Time of Possession.

If Wannstedt has it his way, though, standout Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm will be doing a whole lot more standing and watching than actually playing.

“[Controlling the clock] would be our objective every week,” Wannstedt said. “That is one of those things that shows up on the stat sheets that people don’t talk about usually. They talk about the obvious — touchdowns, interceptions, sacks — but possession time is a key and there are so many benefits to that, particularly when you are playing a high-scoring team and you want to minimize the number of possessions they have.

“If you are a running team and you can control the clock and you have a controlled passing game — and we’re that way now — I think the theme is, don’t stop ourselves. It is amazing how, even in last week’s game, we’re at the 9-yard line going in and we have a holding call and we settle for a field goal.”

Wannstedt said that even if the Panthers do control the clock on offense and even if they don’t turn the ball over, they still will have their hands full trying to figure out how to stop the Cardinals.

Unless there is a huge disparity, time of possession is a relatively minor stat for a game and the season. Louisville ranks 5th in the country in ToP

1 BYU 7 34:08
2 Arizona St. 7 34:02
3 Wisconsin 8 33:60
4 Wake Forest 7 33:43
5 Louisville 8 32:30
6 Boston College 7 32:29
7 Houston 7 32:27
8 Texas A&M 8 32:24
9 Iowa St. 8 32:19
10 Maryland 7 32:17
11 Northwestern 8 32:13
12 Western Mich. 8 32:12

So, while the running game for the Cardinals hasn’t been much, they still use plenty of clock moving the ball with the pass.

Pitt comes in at 47th at 30:24. The difference between being 23 in the country is just under a minute (Toledo, 31:21). The difference of being 70th is the nearly the same (Oklahoma, 29:25).

Zeise probably nailed the issue at the end of the article.

Although time of possession is one key statistic from the win against the Bearcats the Panthers would love to duplicate tomorrow, it will only be possible if they duplicate another — turnovers.

The Panthers forced three of them and turned the ball over only once, a big difference from the first six games of the year when they had 16 turnovers and forced only six.

More possessions leads to a larger ToP. To do that against Louisville, it is going to have to come predominantly from interceptions. Brohm has only 6 interceptions in 8 games. Pitt coaches are essentially talking scared about blitzing.

“He makes you pay for (blitzing),” Rhoads said. “First of all, they’ll ‘max-protect’ in a heartbeat. If they sense any pressure, they’ll keep seven players in to block and protect him. Now, it doesn’t matter how great the scheme or what you bring. Your chances of getting there are certainly slimmed up.”

Even if blitzing isn’t the answer, the Panthers are planning to pressure Brohm in some way, shape or form.

“You always got to get to him and touch him some how, some way,” Phillips said. “You let him sit back there, of course he’s going to pick you apart because he’s a great quarterback. You’ve got to get in his face, get after him and make him hurry some decisions.”

If not, Pitt’s secondary could be in for a long day.

“It’s a big challenge,” Phillips said. “We’re really going to see where our defense is at.”

Scary thought.





‘Earlier this week, tailback LeSean McCoy said the Panthers had “cut some stuff out of the playbook” to make it easier on an offense that starts two freshmen, two sophomores and a redshirt sophomore at skill positions and for a line that was besieged by pre-snap penalties. “The o-line thought it was too much, so we kind of simplified it for all the linemen,” McCoy said. “I think that worked out well. We came out mentally tough and executed. It worked out for the whole team.”’

Wait – what? I know that our most talented lineman are young – but don’t we play some upperclassmen as starters on the line (say, 4 out of 5)? Three or four years to “learn” a scheme isn’t enough? WTF?

Comment by Stuart 10.26.07 @ 10:50 pm

Otah is a second year guy at PITT.

Comment by Reed 10.27.07 @ 8:24 am

[…] Shocking, I know. Wannstedt wants to control the pace of the game. Even as I questioned the whole Time of Possesion (ToP) stat value, Gorman kind of follows up and kills it for Pitt and Louisville. […]


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