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October 9, 2007

Maybe it’s the fact that the Steelers are off to a hot start, the Pirates are cleaning house and the Pens are starting their season. Or maybe it’s that apathy towards Pitt football has already set in. I’ve been stunned that over the last two stinkers of losses that the primary ‘Burgh columnists (Starkey, Collier, Cook and Smizik) have done a grand total of one column about Pitt — a Smizik quickie on how Wannstedt needed a UVa win for his future. That’s 2 1/2 weeks and practically nothing. I mean Starkey has a side gig doing a weekly Big East report and column for ESPN.com and he couldn’t be bothered with Pitt. This has nothing to do with any pro- or anti- biases to Pitt or Wannstedt. That has everything to do with the interest in the Pitt football program right now in Pittsburgh. Which apparently could be classified as very little. This is a bad trend. Personally, I don’t think the media sets much of the agenda in sports anymore. It is increasingly a reflection of audience interest. That should be a big concern for Pitt’s Athletic Department. I mean, if there was anyone in charge.

Is the game important to Coach Wannstedt and Pitt? Does Coach Wannstedt even realize how frustrated the fans are? It’s hard to say. Like a Magic 8-Ball, it depends on how hard you shake and when to see whether he realizes how important this game is.
From an article on Sunday.

“We’ve got to get one,” Pittsburgh coach Dave Wannstedt said. “So, yeah, it’s important. You come out here and work real hard and put this much time into it. The thing that’s frustrating is that you go out and you recruit good players, and they come here.

“So, we’ve got guys who want to win and are preparing to win, but we’ve just got to find a way to make it happen on the field. There’s no other way to really put it than that.”

Wannstedt was also asked if the Pitt administration has still expressed confidence in him and the football program, and his response was curt.

“I won’t even respond to that,” Wannstedt said.

And then yesterday.

“Sure it is,” Wannstedt said. “We need to get back on track and we need to find a way to win this game to get to .500 and we’ll go from there. Is it more important today than it was yesterday? No. Is it more important today than it was the opening game? I would say no. I don’t think you look at leadership that way. You are either a leader or you’re not.”

And I have no idea what that exactly means or the relation for the need for a win and something about leadership; other than the fact that I’ve read and re-read that several times and I want those minutes of my life back.

So, while the regular sports columnists aren’t wasting time on Pitt, the beat writers are trying to fill it in, without dancing too far over. After all, they have to deal with the coaches and players on a daily basis. It’s a delicate situation.

Pitt will play host to Navy tomorrow night in what has suddenly become one of the Panthers’ most important games in recent history.

There were plenty of questions surrounding the direction of Pitt’s program under coach Dave Wannstedt before the season started. They have turned into legitimate concerns in the wake of the way the Panthers have performed.

With a three-game losing streak, Pitt (2-3) seems to be rapidly descending to the bottom of the Big East. The Panthers appear headed for a third consecutive season without a bowl game. A home loss to the Midshipmen (3-2) on national television would further damage Pitt and Wannstedt’s reputations.

Even if it’s by simply stating the facts.

The Panthers coach enters the midway point of both his third season and his five-year contract with a 13-15 record that includes three wins over Division I-AA opponents — and without a signature victory to his credit.

The athletic director, Jeff Long, who pledged his support, left for Arkansas. Pitt chancellor Mark A. Nordenberg has kept quiet amid the search for a replacement. When asked late last week if he still had the administration’s support, Wannstedt snapped, “Yeah. I won’t even respond to that.”

When Pitt (2-3) plays host to Navy (3-2) at 8 p.m. Wednesday, it will do so before an ESPN national television audience that will cast an even greater spotlight on a program that has slipped from Big East Conference co-champion to its basement in less than three seasons.

After a 2-0 start, Pitt has lost three consecutive games. Dating to last season, Pitt has lost eight of its past 10.

Yes, Coach Wannstedt knows he’s getting extra criticism, but honestly — and I think I keep repeating this fact — he isn’t going anywhere. He’s going to be here next year. Lack of a new Athletic Director, the money Pitt is paying and high administration and booster support are the reasons. Any one, would probably be enough. All three makes it a lock.

Well, Dennis let the cat out of the bag as a blog exchange between myself and Adam Nettina of the excellent Pitch Right blog and myself regarding Wednesday night’s Navy-Pitt game. Part 1, where I answered his questions are here. Now for Part 2.

1. Can you give a reasonably simple explanation how Navy’s triple-option works and who the vital players in this offense are and what is going right when it is working? Is speed from a defense the best way to stop it, or is it something else?

Of course. Navy’s triple option is run out of the flexbone formation. It’s basically a spread formation with the inside receivers (called “A” or slotbacks) in tight about a half yard back from the line. There are other sets of the formation, but this is the most basic set. On a typical option play the quarterback will take the snap and pivot as the fullback comes forward. This is the QB-FB mesh and depending on the quarterback’s read of the defensive end, he will either hand off to the fullback on an inside run (“dive”) or the quarterback will pull the ball out and proceed up the field. That’s the first option. The second and third option comes when the quarterback makes the decision to pitch the ball or to keep it and run up the field. If everything is blocked correctly, that read is dependent on what the guy “running the ally” (usually a safety or outside linebacker) does. Keep in mind this is still a spread formation, and that Navy runs more than just the “triple option” out of different flexbone sets, including fullback options and reverse pivot option plays. And of course, there is always the threat that the quarterback can pull the ball back and throw the ball downfield, especially if the defense is “firing the corners” to try to get into the backfield in anticipation for the option. For further explanation of how the offense functions, I’ll refer your readers to fellow Navy blogger Phelix, who gives a fantastic breakdown of the anatomy of a 76-yard touchdown run on his website.

Navy’s triple option is really a team effort because it takes everyone- from the offensive lineman to the receivers to the quarterback- to make it work correctly. However, we do have some skill players that really make it fun to watch. Our quarterback, Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku Enhada, has been playing in this kind of offense since High School and has already recorded seven rushing touchdowns on the season. At the fullback position we have Eric Kettani and Adam Ballard. Ballard was the team’s leading rusher last season, but we’ve seen Kettani (6’1, 220, 4.53/40, 400 BP) hit more long runs this season and take the bulk of the carries. At slotback we have the now famous Reggie Campbell, who at 5’6 is one of the smallest players in the country. He’s a fierce blocker though who runs in the 4.3s and is so low to the ground that he’s really a nightmare for players to tackle. Zerb Singleton and Shun White, two other speedy slotbacks, also play a big role in both the run and passing game.

As far as stopping the triple option goes, speed certainly helps, but it’s all about playing disciplined. Beating the triple option is about reading your keys, reacting quickly, and either beating or shedding the block to get to the ballcarrier. Navy has played some very big and athletic defenses over the past five years, but the ones that do the best are the most disciplined. It also helps to have extra time to prepare for the offense, and to have personnel who have played against it in the past.

2. It seems after some early struggles, the offense has really started to click. Is it the players more comfortable in it after a few games, or were there changes made?

I think a lot has to do with guys just getting up to speed as the season goes along. This is something we see every year, and if anything we’ve seen the offensive come together earlier this season because of the experience. I’m sure Paul Johnson has made some adjustments as far as personnel packages go, but mostly the adjustments we see the offense make come during the game. Everything else is fundamentally the same.

3. 43 points to Duke? Really? What happened? What are the weaknesses/exploitable aspects of the defense?

To put it bluntly, everything. Navy had a very inexperienced defense coming into the year that got a whole lot more inexperienced very quickly, as junior linebacker Clint Sovie and Free Safety Jeff Deliz (defensive captain) were lost for the season against Rutgers. This was a huge loss because Clint was the guy who lined everyone up, and to tell you the truth the coaching staff didn’t have anyone to turn to who could line up the defense correctly. Navy basically lost the Ball State game because guys were covering the wrong gap assignments and, as Paul Johnson put it, were playing “streetball.” Defensive coordinator Buddy Green has simplified some things to make it easier since then, but the adjustments are putting strains on what our personnel can accomplish. A great example of this is in the secondary, where cornerbacks have been forced to play man coverage. Rashawn King, the left corner, is actually one of the better corners at the Naval Academy in some time, but the right cornerback spot has been a revolving door all year, with nether Darius Terry nor Greg Thrasher able to prevent the big play. Blake Carter, who is solid in run support, will get the start against Pitt, but he hasn’t been tested in coverage. The defensive line is also an area of great concern, as the defensive ends have failed to keep containment while getting pressure on the quarterback has been almost nonexistent, with only three sacks in five games. But more than anything else, Navy’s defense is just not playing smart, fundamental football. Tackling is an issue, playing in space is something we don’t do well, and stopping other teams on third down (allowing a conversion rate of over 50%) is a constant problem. Navy has never been lights out on defense under Coach Green, but because of the youth and the injuries this year the defense has played especially poor. Even though Pitt’s offense is banged up at key positions, they shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the football. The real question will be whether Navy can come up with stops in the red zone, which is what the defense was able to do against Air Force.

4. Paul Johnson has been phenomenal for Navy, so naturally his name comes up for the annual coaching carousel. Is he really going anywhere? Is there a school you think he is holding out for the particular opening?

For the time being, no. He signed a contract extension last year and he is in a very good situation here, making top dollar and also getting an amazing amount of support for what he does. As far as the long term goes, I’m about as clueless as most people. If the right offer comes around I’m sure he’ll take it, but true to form he’s never actually defined what the “right offer” means. He’s a Carolina native so he may be somewhat interested in those positions, but fortunately for us they’ve all been addressed in recent years. He’s got a good thing at the Naval Academy, and quite frankly doesn’t have any reason to leave unless he’s intent on proving that his offense works at the BCS level, which he may or not be.

5. Way before the season, the Poinsettia Bowl all but guaranteed a bowl bid for Navy if they get bowl eligible. People eyeballed the schedule and suggested it was a virtual guarantee that Navy would get to at least 7 win to take all the guess work out of it. How vital is beating Pitt getting the needed number of wins at this point?

I don’t know if we can really tell at this point, but I will give you the standard line of any win helps. The rest of the schedule is, by conventional standards at least, very manageable. North Texas and Northern Illinois are two of the worst teams in the country, while Delaware is an FCS team and Army is, well, Army. That being said, look at the last two weeks of college football and tell me if anyone is “guaranteed” anything. Navy may need to win this game for no other reason that nothing is assured, even against teams like North Texas and Northern Illinois. Beating a team like Pitt out of the BCS conference would be a huge accomplishment for the program, and give the Midshipmen momentum rolling into the “tougher” portion of the schedule with Wake Forest and Notre Dame looming.

6. How do you see the Wednesday night game playing out? Your predictions?

Well, it sure won’t be decided by halftime. Navy’s defense is going to keep other teams in games this year, that’s almost a given, while Navy’s offense probably has the experience and personnel to score on most teams. I think Navy will squeak this one out, if for no other reason that team’s traditionally struggle defensively when they have never played this kind of offense in the past. Had Pitt been fully healthy and had it’s offensive line been in order, I think the Panthers would win this game by two touchdowns, but considering just how beat up they are right now I think Navy will be able to get one or two big stops defensively to seal the game. I’m a little shaky on this, but let’s say 34-31 Navy.

Thanks again to Adam for doing this. Adam will be liveblogging the Wednesday night game  — as will I — so multiple online locations to take different perspectives. I also recommend you take a look at The Birddog, another Navy-centric blog, as Phelix has his look at Pitt.

Looking Into Navy

Filed under: Coaches,Football,Opponent(s),Wannstedt — Chas @ 12:33 am

The basics.

Game Notes for Pitt and Navy (both PDF).

How does Navy look on the national level?

Rushing Offense 1 348.40
Passing Offense 119 98.40
Total Offense 26 446.80
Scoring Offense 33 32.40
Rushing Defense 83 172.20
Pass Efficiency Defense 119 173.46
Total Defense 104 453.60
Scoring Defense 92 31.40
Net Punting 107 31.43
Punt Returns 107 4.67
Kickoff Returns 71 21.00
Turnover Margin 73 -.20
Pass Defense 107 281.40
Passing Efficiency 51 131.30
Sacks 119 .60
Tackles For Loss 109 4.60

And now, Pitt.

Rushing Offense 79 127.00
Passing Offense 95 188.00
Total Offense 103 315.00
Scoring Offense 99 20.40
Rushing Defense 27 111.00
Pass Efficiency Defense 10 96.91
Total Defense 9 268.40
Scoring Defense 40 21.60
Net Punting 63 34.79
Punt Returns 72 8.50
Kickoff Returns 40 23.30
Turnover Margin 110 -1.60
Pass Defense 5 157.40
Passing Efficiency 98 109.47
Sacks 32 2.60
Tackles For Loss 43 6.80
Sacks Allowed T-88 2.60

Well, basically on defense, the Midshipmen’s weakness is defending the pass. The one thing Pitt is afraid to do on offense right now. The stats also suggest that they don’t generate a lot of pressure up front. If Wannstedt and Cavanaugh are going to let Bostick pass, this is the game. It’s also the best chance to give him confidence.

The one concern is that the Navy defense will change it’s looks and that could cause a lot of confusion for Bostick in reading it. Not to mention, Pitt’s O-line hasn’t exactly distinguished itself in any facet. Adjusting to different looks may confuse them as well.

Coach Wannstedt had his press conference today, and was talking up how the defense isn’t being given proper respect in light of its statistical rankings.

On Pitt’s national defensive rankings:

It probably doesn’t show up in wins and losses, but we’re fifth in the nation in passing defense, 27th in rushing defense and (ninth) in the country in total defense. We’re still in the top 10 in the country in total defense and when you look at the last three games, you say ‘well how can that be?’ Obviously we’re doing some real good things on defense, but you don’t get a chance to stand up here and talk about them when you don’t get the win. We’re doing some good things on defense and our defensive guys are confident. This is a different challenge, it’s exciting to them and I think they’re looking forward to going out there and executing.

I was going to blast away, but Kevin Gorman essentially beat me to it.

Pitt’s defensive statistics this fall can be misleading, considering it has allowed 57 of its 78 points in the first half the past two games as its opponents cruised to victory.

Granted, Pitt’s aptitude for turning the ball over has given its opposition prime field position. Both Connecticut and Virginia took advantage to score in the game’s first two minutes, the Huskies using an interception return to Pitt’s 6 to set up their first touchdown and the Cavaliers recovering an onside kick with a 10-yard penalty to start at Pitt’s 39.

“That’s no excuse,” sophomore cornerback Aaron Berry said. “You still have to keep them out of our end zone, hold them to three points. I feel we’re a great defense and we’re going to keep our heads up the rest of the season.”

Not to mention, we’ve seen these seemingly impressive starts on defense in past seasons quickly degenerate into pathos in the second half.

Not to mention, the biggest problem for Pitt’s defense in the last few games has simply been getting off of the field on 3d and 4th down. Guess what? Navy’s really pretty good on 3d and 4th down conversions.

Navy also completes a high percentage of plays on third (49 percent) and fourth downs (75 percent), which will repeatedly test the fortitude of Pitt’s front four.

Against UVa, Pitt allowed 6 of 13 and 2 for 2 on 3d and 4th down conversions. UConn was 7 for 17 on 3d downs (but a whopping 7-10 in the first half). Finally Michigan State was 8 for 19 on 3d downs and 1 of 3 on 4th. That seems problematic.

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