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July 24, 2018

Every year I pick up just about every preseason football mag. Partially out of curiosity. Partially out of boredom that comes with the June-ish dead time.

Every year, I page to Pitt’s entry first. See where they are projected in the ACC. See what is being said.

Coming off a 5-7 season, expectations have been low.

The Phil Steele preview is the biggie of course. That wonderful mix of stats, self-promotion and actual useful information tucked into the small print and vaguely comprehensible abbreviations.

He was also the harshest in projecting Pitt in their ACC finish. 6th in the ACC Coastal. Ahead of only Virginia. 4th or 5th wouldn’t have surprised me, but 6th?

It was the second last sentence in his Pitt preview, though, that struck me.

“My 9 sets of power ratings have them any where from 4-8 to 10-2.”

[Plenty of emphasis added.]

And that right there is this year’s Pitt football team.

I went on a podcast to talk about Pitt a few weeks back. Near the end of some very extensive blathering on my part, we went through the schedule. I think I ended up having Pitt finish 9-3 or something like that.

I’m surprisingly optimistic about most of this team. Yet, I can also see having a really disappointing year. And not all because of the schedule.

We believe Kenny Pickett is going to be really good at QB.

We think that the running game will be solid.

We hope that the O-line will be better after a coaching change and some help with a grad transfer.

We have no idea about the receiving corps.

That’s a lot to take on faith. And that’s just the offensive side of the ball.

I’m optimistic that the defense finally comes together. I love the depth and talent in the secondary — despite the departures of Maddox and Whitehead.

Many Pitt fans seems to think that the linebackers will be a real strength as well. That the D-line is better and that the ends are poised to finally break through (literally and figuratively).

I’m not too bent out of shape at seeing Pitt picked 5th in the ACC pre-season media poll. Duke and North Carolina getting a vote each to win the Coastal? Now that has me disturbed.

 

 





The “Dreaded Pitt optimism”! An incurable disease that spreads rapidly among older Pitt Alumni pre football season every year. It is quite contagious! 10-2 Baby!!!

Comment by Dan 72 07.24.18 @ 1:21 pm

I see 7 games as a toss up or winnable on paper, 2 mild upsets and 3 big upsets. I understand that Duke and Wake are supposed to surprise but when you look at their overall talent, they do not have a clear advantage over Pitt.

That gives Pitt 9 realistic opportunities at wins if everything bounces their way.

I’m not going to predict anything. Just leaving that out there.

Wins/Toss ups:

Albany
GT
UNC
CUSE
Duke
UVA
WF

Mild Upsets:

UCF
VT

Big Upsets:

PSU
ND
Miami

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 07.24.18 @ 2:22 pm

Yes I am a statistician, so I cannot help but think…the relationship between a) past season’s record and b) player turnover on optimism. When the first is low and the second is high, there is a lot of unknowns, and thus a lot more room for Pitt optimism to rear its head.

I too have this blind hope the OL will totally surprise me…since that is the principal biggest question. Then Pickett. We all were so primed for something better last year, I think we were all wearing super thick rose colored glasses when he finally did. I can see him putting it all together…or spending most of the year running for his life and getting hurt.

With this schedule, at 10-2 we should be playing for the national championship! Only 4 loses would make me very happy actually.

Comment by DD 07.24.18 @ 3:22 pm

So long Ox!

Comment by Duggie 07.24.18 @ 3:28 pm

The normal M.O. for Pitt is to surprise to the downside with high expectations and surprise to the upside with low expectations. Totally understand why the expectations are low. Hoping the trend to surprise works out. Also sometimes schedules based upon last years results look daunting and then at the end of the year maybe was not so bad because opponents ended up underachieving to their own expectations.

Comment by The Ghost of Billy Gaines 07.24.18 @ 3:33 pm

So about Ox, longtime Pitt equip manager…fired today….turns out Narduzzi asked him to clean up after a party a Duzz’s house and he refused. I’m sure there’s more to this but Narduzzi is rapidly getting the rep as a very difficult man to work with…if not an outright prick! Assistant coaches have bashed him as they left Pitt Football and the recruiting stories of Narduzzi’s temper and shortsightedness are outright scary.

If he was Knute Rockne on game days, the tone might be different. But he still acts like he’s no more than asst coach in all that he does. Maybe that’s why no 4’s and 5’s.?

Comment by Dan 72 07.24.18 @ 4:10 pm

I think the defense will pick up where they left off last season which was much improved…I think Pickett is a special football player who will be a difference maker…I think our schedule is very difficult….I think when you add this all up 8 – 4 looks like a successful season…What do you think?

Comment by HbgFrank 07.24.18 @ 6:15 pm

PITT sports teams are on a long overdue upward trajectory – we will experience surprising success within 2 years. As for the future,in the class of 2020, there are two extraordinary program changing Pennsylvania talents that Pitt has a tremendous chance at landing : Football – Southern Columbia WR Julian Fleming(#2 nationally )which is Henry Hynoski’s alama mater & he will be a major factor in his recruitment & Butler HS Point Guard ( top 40 nationally ) Ethan Morton – Capel will 100% land this local product ! ( Pirates just won 11th in a row !!)

Comment by daddylonglegs 07.24.18 @ 8:23 pm

between 4 and 10 wins
Vegas says 5.5
so I’ll take 6 and finally a bowl win
The D should be better
But tough to win with an inexperienced QB, suspect O-line, no stand out RB’s and few safety valves for a QB running for his life

I’m more hopeful for long term success by the basketball team because I believe Capel can recruit. The football program doesnt have the talent to consistently compete or win the division without better recruits.

I dont drink Pitt Optimism any more. Gives me bad headaches. I prefer a bottle of Realism with a side of Pessimism. Never the headache or upset stomach.

Comment by TX Panther 07.24.18 @ 9:23 pm

8/4

O line will be ok and Pickett isn’t inexperienced, he has game experience and has been in their offense for a year now and the RBs aren’t an issue. They are a bit over scheduled on non con but this team is far from inept and inexperienced.

Comment by WLAT 910 radio and the Big Beat! 07.25.18 @ 11:43 am

We need to start predicting UNC as a loss.

Comment by Atlanta Panther 07.25.18 @ 2:13 pm

Atlanta – Haha. I only said winnable. No predictions. I think, like the post implies, this team is too difficult to project.

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 07.25.18 @ 3:27 pm

Sure losses:
Penn State ( already 14 point underdogs)
Notre Dame
UCF ( mini Miami team) speed everywhere
Miami

Most likely losses:
Georgia Tech ( Pitt cant stop their offense)
Virginia Tech

Possible wins:
North Carolina
Wake Forest

Sure wins:
Albany
Syracuse
Virginia
Duke

Comment by Pitt Dreamer 07.25.18 @ 11:19 pm

This will not be a good football team to watch, will be sitting in our seats again hoping for improvement. The QB won’t be able to do it all himself.

Keep on recruiting 3 stars and you get 3 star play.
The man is not head coach material and our AD gave him a new contract , he now makes over $3 Million a year and for what.

Comment by Pitt Dreamer 07.25.18 @ 11:24 pm

Penn State and Notre Dame should NEVER be considered “sure loss” for Pitt. Anything can happen in rivalry games. The thing you have to watch out for are the ones that sneak up on you. Important: DON’T LOSE TO UNC this year! Looking forward to the game on Nov. 10th – hope the Hokies don’t get embarrassed…

Comment by Hokie Mark 07.31.18 @ 4:40 am

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