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July 25, 2018

More Preview Thoughts

Filed under: Football,Prognostications — Chas @ 6:18 pm

Just to get this out of the way. The resignation of Tim “Ox” Enright as the football Equipment Manager of 31 years; barely more then a week before training camp starts is not a good thing. The rumors as to the reason for the resignation cast football head coach Pat Narduzzi in a poor, petty asshole-ish light.

It’s not a crisis, but the loss of a popular figure within the football program is the sort of thing that can lead to a more critical eye to be cast towards Narduzzi and how he operates. From within the athletic department, the school administration, by past players who adored Ox, and fans to some degree.

It is by all appearances a minor, self-inflicted wound by Narduzzi. Something that will be quickly forgotten. Especially if the season goes a lot better then predicted.

Yes, Pitt has what may be the most difficult non-con schedule. Especially since it is four games, not three like in the Big 12, Pac-12 and Big 10.

Interestingly, while Pitt’s non-con is considered the toughest among all P5 programs, Stewart Mandel notes that the ACC — for whatever reason — has a year with many programs facing tough non-cons.

1. Pittsburgh. The Panthers have long histories with Penn State and Notre Dame, but this year marks the first time since 1999 they’ve played both in the same season. As if that’s not enough, they’re also heading to Orlando to face defending “national champion” UCF. That’s just brutal.

2. Florida State. The Seminoles open the season against a tough ACC foe, Virginia Tech, but in exchange they visit reigning Citrus Bowl champ Notre Dame in November, two weeks before hosting rival Florida. There’s also a September game against ever-tricky mid-major Northern Illinois. And Samford.

3. Miami. The Hurricanes open the season against LSU on a Sunday night at Jerry World. Not content with just one long-distance date, they also spend Week 3 at Toledo, which went 11-3 last season. And a home game the next week against FIU isn’t necessarily a gimme. (But Savannah State is.)

4. UCLA. The Chip Kelly era begins with a winnable game against Cincinnati, which has seen better days. But next up comes a trip to Oklahoma for a close-up scouting report on future A’s outfielder Kyler Murray, followed by a visit from Fresno State, a 10-win team last year.

5. Louisville. Opening against Alabama (in Orlando) is always going to get you on the short list. Ask Florida State what that’s like. As always, the Cardinals also face in-state rival Kentucky, as well as Mike Sanford’s Western Kentucky team, with one breather against Indiana State.

Mind you, in researching this, the options got to be slim pickings pretty quickly.

Oh, Miami. Beware the Glass Bowl. Bad things happen there. Bad, bad things. Especially in September.

Maybe I’m being an irrational optimist, but I like Pitt to go at least 2-2 in their non-con. With enough rationalizing (and perhaps beverages to go with it) — 3-1.

What it really comes down to, though, is what Pitt does in the conference schedule. Most of the conference slate is going to be toss-up games.

GT — who knows for either side.

UNC — they were bad last year, but Pitt still found a way to lose and has yet to beat them as part of the ACC, so until that happens I just can’t assume anything.

Syracuse — again, I like to think Pitt has this one, but Dino Babers coaches offense to 11. And last year was some kind of crazy slog just to keep everyone off-balance.

Duke — Other than one blowout Pitt win, the games have all finished at 7-points or less to decide it.

Virginia — In Charlottesville, so technically the Cavs have a better chance.

VT — 0-2 against Fuentes. I’d like Pitt’s chances a lot better if this game was in September or early October. Guessing this one comes down to the final minutes.

Wake Forest — Dave Clawson has been steady and strong on making the Demon Deacons a stable and quietly good team. It’s down in Winston-Salem, so definitely a toss-up.

Miami — Welp. Not that irrational about Pitt right now.

Legitimately, Pitt could be anywhere from 7-1 to 3-5 in the conference slate.

That, “who really knows with Pitt,” is echoed in the SBNation preview.

They went from playing like a bottom-40 team to a top-40 team. The offense was still sporadic, but the defense turned good. The win over Miami was a nice signpost of the improvement, but even if they’d fallen short in that game, the Panthers were already far ahead of where they’d been a couple of months prior.

And now that improved defense returns its top six linemen, top five linebackers, and six of eight defensive backs.

The offense is still in flux. Two of the three QBs who saw the field last year are gone, and while returning sophomore Ke

nny Pickett was at the helm for the Miami game, he’s still only seen real action in three games (and went 5-for-13 in one of them). Receiver Jester Weah, the only real big-play threat, is gone, and there are another couple of all-league linemen to replace as well.

Depth-wise, it feels Pitt is getting somewhere. This team is mostly made of Narduzzi recruits now, so perhaps his aggressive defensive scheme will stop feeling quite as risky.

Plus, hey, we don’t have to worry about inconsistent performances against lesser competition, because there’s almost no lesser competition on the schedule. After a week-one visit from FCS’ Albany, each of the remaining 11 opponents is projected 73rd or better in S&P+, and five are in the top 25. That tamps down the expected win total for what should be a top-50 Pitt, even if Pitt doesn’t really do “expected.”

I’m finding it pretty easy to talk myself into Pitt as a top-40 team again. The Panthers were close to that late in the year, and if Pickett goes from small-sample all-star to all-star, then the Panthers should be efficient offensively, even if there aren’t a ton of big plays. And since the defense returns most of the reasons for its late-year improvement, there’s reason for hope there, too.

This is an unforgiving schedule, though. S&P+ projects Pitt 45th, which seems safe, but the Panthers are still only projected favorites in five games, and three are relative tossups. Meanwhile, they are a 12-point underdog or worse against Penn State and in road trips to UCF, Notre Dame, and Miami.

This being Pitt, they’ll probably win at least one of those games, but they’ll have to win a majority of their tossups, without any slips in the easier games, to get back to bowl eligibility. S&P+ projects an average of 5.3 wins even with the top-50 ranking. Pickett might not only have to be good; he might have to be excellent.

Notwithstanding the terrible attempts to bring back the X-Files, “I want to believe.”

Really, it keeps coming back to Kenny Pickett for these previews. Which is scary. Not necessarily because I doubt Pickett. My doubts remain with the receivers. This isn’t Marino throwing to whatever stiffs the Dolphins used to trot out, but the receiving corps outside of Araujo-Lopes is a giant, flaming question mark.

But everyone still puts it on Pickett.

This is a promising roster that, for better or worse, has weathered tough times together already. So much of this team’s potential success likely comes down to the play of Pickett, although the depth of the quarterbacks room has to be comforting for Pitt. The Coastal seems fairly open this year aside from Miami, so Pitt has a chance to play its way into meaningful November football, provided it survives that brutal nonconference schedule in one piece.

Still remains the question of who is catching the damn ball.





I understand some questions about the receiving group, but I just don’t get this recurring theme that it is a complete unknown. We saw Tipton as a freshman. He showed that he makes key plays in big moments. We know Araujo-Lopes is not only a volume receiver, but also a quick and gritty playmaker. We saw the ability that Ffrench has. Yes, he had concentration issues last year, but the ceiling is exceptionally high. That’s three receivers that we have seen that can be strong contributors. Will they have big seasons this year? We won’t know until they play the games, but there are some known commodities in the receiver room.

Comment by PittFaninEnemyTerritory 07.25.18 @ 6:40 pm

Tipton is coming off injury. So that always remains a question. Aaron Mathews has yet to make a significant impact (and is ahead of Tipton on the depth chart at this time). TE is [shakes magic 8-ball, comes up “ask again later”].

That was just off the top of my head. Let’s look closer.
Here’s what the 2018 media guide lists as the WR and TE depth chart

WR: Aaron Mathews, Tre Tipton
WR: Rafael Araujo-Lopes, Maurice Ffrench, Schocky Jacques-Louis
WR: Darien Street, Michael Smith
TE: Tyler Sear, Charles Reeves (whoops), Grant Carrigan

That’s a RS Sr., RS Jr., Jr., Soph, 2 RS Fr. and a Fr. presently on the roster on this depth chart.

The upper classmen are stacked on each other at two of the WR spots.

If you want to say, “Don’t panic!” I agree.
If you want to say, “Remain calm. All is fine.” Well…

Comment by Chas 07.25.18 @ 7:05 pm

I did not give any prediction on how the receivers will perform. But here and on other sites, everyone wants to say that we know nothing about the receivers. All I was pointing out is that we are not as blind as many are saying. As for the depth chart in July, I couldn’t care less. I will give you a prediction now though. I predict a strong performance by our receivers. Partly due to development by coaching and partly because Pickett is pretty freaking awesome!

Comment by PittFaninEnemyTerritory 07.25.18 @ 8:53 pm

Why did they force the “Ox” out?

Comment by Pitt Dreamer 07.25.18 @ 10:58 pm

What about Will Gragg, does he have to sit out 2018?

Comment by grizzly1 07.26.18 @ 12:22 pm

I’m not worried about the WRs — Pitt always seems to come up with a few diamonds, if not cubic-zirconiums (sp?), in the rough, and I think we will again this year. When guys have a legit chance to win starting jobs, they usually rise up if they were ever any good at all, and our WRs have pretty good pedigrees. It’s the O=line which concerns me most…really hoped O’Neil would stick around this year, but put the young guys through the paces this August and see what they do.

Comment by Matt N. 07.29.18 @ 11:30 pm

We are now competing with the likes of Toledo and UConn for our lineman. Something is very wrong with this picture.

Comment by Pitt Dreamer 07.31.18 @ 9:34 pm

Dreamer…I was thinking exactly the same thing. It’s a huge leap of faith to believe these guys see something different than ALL of the big 5 recruiters out there.

Comment by The Hagen 08.01.18 @ 1:24 pm

Amen!

Comment by pitt60 08.01.18 @ 2:57 pm

I dont think Pickett needs to be All-ACC this year. But I think he and the receivers need to be good enough to keep the D from jammin’ the line. That will open up the running game – can’t wait to see George this year!

Last year the D’s didn’t respect our QB play – wonder why. We gave up a slew of sacks; was that on the OL, or were the QBs holding the ball to long? Were they too slow? Or a combination. Could the receivers not get free to soon?

So many suspects for our inability to string together drives, that I see that small improvements in several offensive areas will make our OL look much better than last year. But we need to be able to RUN THE BALL – make a yard when we need to (VT, anyone???). I’m thinking Kenny will help out a lot in that area.

Comment by Savannah Panther 08.02.18 @ 9:23 am

How can the Ohio State mess affect Pitt?
Head Coach will be gone.
The tarnish will no doubt hit the Ohio State AD and he may be gone.
Who would take the Ohio State Athletic Directors Job? You guessed it, our one and only Heather Lykes. She is a product of Ohio State and would be the leading candidate to take over. Think about it.

Comment by Pitt Dreamer 08.02.18 @ 5:18 pm

Ox is a Pitt man.
I hate to see Pitt men get screwed, particularly by those who aren’t Pitt men.

Nardo will be gone in two.

Comment by Gasman 08.02.18 @ 9:26 pm

Wouldn’t break my heart to see Lykes leave — I think she handled the Stallings thing pretty classlessly and then caved to the popular choice for his replacement. Maybe bring Wanny back as AD and put a happy ending on that saga.

Morrissey and Bookser looked good but the other three spots are big question marks…Narduzzi better give every OL in camp a vigorous testing and look-see, and maybe even convert some DL if need be. Open the comp. wide open and play your best guys regardless of recruiting hype.

Comment by Matt N. 08.03.18 @ 3:25 pm

As Savannah rightly points out, better QB play/decision making will aid the OL cause greatly — I expect that from Pickett and look forward to the O jelling and learning quickly. The play-action and 10-15 yard pass will be the line’s best friend, and Pickett looked pretty good at that…no need for 40 yard bombs every series but definitely take a handful of deep shots every game.

Comment by Matt N. 08.03.18 @ 3:29 pm

Also, maybe goto a serious power run line-up every now and again to help the line get a push…go with a triple backfield of large RBs like Hall, Ollison, and Aston all in there at once, then run fake toss and hammer it up the gut…could loosen things for the line and give them confidence. Call it the “Rush” set (power trio, get it?!)

Comment by Matt N. 08.03.18 @ 3:33 pm

It all starts with the offensive line, if they gel and are good the rest falls into place. If not, it will be a long season.
As for Wanny as an AD, come on here. He would not know where to start. Not an administrator and that is what the job is.

Comment by Pitt Dreamer 08.03.18 @ 8:11 pm

Matt N – This Stallings obsession that you have is bizarre. Classless? Popular choice? What in the cardiac hill are you talking about?

1. Stallings took a veteran team that made the tournament the year before and proceeded to only win 4 games in the ACC with essentially that same team.

2. In year 2, Stallings won zero games in the ACC and the team did not improve over the course of the season.

3. Stallings blocked Jeter from coming to Pitt forcing him to pay for a year of college out of pocket at a Junior College in Florida. Then, he pulled the same BS with Cam Johnson dragging Pitt’s name thru the mud in the process and making it a national story when it could have been nipped in the bud at the start by letting the graduated player go where he wanted.

3. Pitt was setting records almost every home game … for low attendance. Every time they set the record, they broke it the next game.

4. Capel wasn’t on anyone’s radar so how could he be “the popular choice”? Not one poster or media member linked him to the job. In fact, the rumor the day before he was hired was that it was another Duke assistant, Jon Scheyer.

5. Lykke has been lauded almost universally for every replacement hire that she’s made, by both the fans and the media.

6. Wanny? Wait? What?

All – I agree about the offensive line. If it overachieves, Pitt will follow suit. If it underachieves, the season is already lost. The defense should be good and the QB and running game should be consistent. That OL has to come thru big time.

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 08.04.18 @ 8:37 pm

Tossing — thanks for the book, speaking of obsession…I’ve maybe mentioned him 2-3 times in the last year or so? Your comment is “bizarre” and a bit hysterical as well.

Obviously he had a bad year but my point was not that, it was how the program seemed to cave in all around him and his team basically left…good luck winning in the ACC yourself with a brand new roster of guys who virtually had zero college playing experience, and your best returning player breaks his foot?!

I’m not sad he left as it clearly wasn’t working, but it seemed to me he got given up on pretty quickly and there was a player revolt that tanked him…by the way Jeter had very kind things to say about him, and the guy who got hurt (forgot his name), left Pitt as a protest to his treatment. I guess they’re both stupid or crazy in your view?

I wish Capel good luck but it just smelled to me like the fix was in on Stallings…imo.

Comment by Matt N. 08.05.18 @ 3:59 pm

Matt N. – Maybe I’m confusing you with another poster. I apologize if that’s the case.

The fix was on in so much as he was a very unpopular hire that reeked of nepotism and then failed miserably. His senior class the year before gave up on him. This team last season was too new to revolt but also did not improve. Everyone knew last season was going to be bad but you have to get better as the season progresses.

Stalling never endeared himself to the fan base. He dug his own grave as attendance is most likely what ultimately did him in.

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 08.05.18 @ 4:23 pm

Pitt just got a 2-star OL recruit from Morgantown.
It was between Pitt and Robert Morris !!!!!! Really , I am not kidding.

Comment by Pitt Dreamer 08.05.18 @ 10:03 pm

Stallings was a dumpster fire. There is no defense for what he did to Pitt Hoops…

Comment by The Hagen 08.05.18 @ 10:09 pm

Tossing — no worries.

Again, guys, not saying Stallings did well or that I’m sorry we got a new coach, but when an entire roster basically ditches you and you have to play brand new guys, mostly frosh, that’s a pretty f’ng raw deal…in the ACC no less.

I think he was just an old school disciplinarian — and a white guy — and that the new PC regimes of the NCAA and society at large cannot accept that and tolerate anyone who doesn’t coddle kids. No one needs to be throwing chairs at or choking their players (thanks Bobby Knight), but now its gone the other way and kids run the roost…to their own detriment. The man won TWO SEC Coach of the Year awards, at Vanderbilt for heaven’s sake! I guess that means he really sucks and knows nothing about basketball?

Anyway, the situation clearly became toxic and had to change…its just a shame, that’s all I’m basically saying. You guys can have the last word as I don’t want to defend myself anymore.

Comment by Matt N. 08.06.18 @ 1:34 pm

Matt…love the Rush set. Haha.

Comment by Lastrowofsection4 08.11.18 @ 9:39 am

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