This column will be shorter than usual as I’ve been under the weather all week. I’m also quite busy at work so that’s eating up a lot of my weakened energy. So, please forgive more typos and errors than usual. Long story short, Pitt is a better team than Virginia at almost every facet. Chaney’s offense is still a work in progress without James Conner, but I’m willing to give him a mulligan on last week. This week, however, the offense needs to produce and get things going as this defense is not good enough to win on its own against the likes of Georgia Tech and UNC like it did against VT.

The Cavaliers opened up the season with back to back games against highly ranked out of conference opponents (UCLA and Notre Dame). The Notre Dame game was a respectable loss, with the Fighting Irish needing last second heroics to pull off the win but UCLA was never really a contest. Since then, they struggled to beat FCS foe William & Mary and got whooped by Boise State. I respect UVA for the tough out of conference schedule, but in order to build the program you need actual wins, not moral victories.

Offense:

The Hokies offense flows through RB Taquan Mizzell. When all else fails, he’s their weapon. Mizzell is only two receptions and seven yards away from leading the Cavaliers in rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He’s more of a WR playing RB as he doesn’t show much instinct behind the line of scrimmage. As a runner he’s had 46 carries for 157 yards (a 3.4 ypc average) but he’s the best they have because he has the skill to make plays in space.

Matt Johns returns at QB and unfortunately for him, he’s not very mobile. He has some athletic ability, but nothing compared to Brendan Motley of VT and we saw how little that helped him against Pitt’s pass rush. Johns has improved since last season and that shows up on the stat sheet with a higher completion percentage and yards per attempt. While Mizzell’s ability to get yards out of the backfield has helped, the emergence of senior WR Canaan Severin has been vital. Severin had 11 catches for 153 yards against Notre Dame, so he’s a threat Pitt must take seriously in the secondary.

The OL for UVA has been what you’d expect. They struggle to get push in the run game and pass protection has been good not great. They’ve given up seven sacks in four games, the same as VT had prior to the Pitt game.

One thing that’s comforting is that UVA has required luck and trickery to get points. Against Notre Dame, one long touchdown was a trick play. Against Boise, both touchdowns were long plays directly caused by the defense playing lazy plus some blatant luck. Take away the Notre Dame game and the offense has been garbage the other three games.

Overall, stopping UVA will be simple: execute. Other than two or three plays against VT, the defense executed consistently. UVA does not have the talent on offense that VT had, so mistakes will be easier to cover up as well. Worst case scenario is UVA gets some big plays through the air and trickery and forces Pitt’s offense to keep up. Best case is a result similar to last week against an inferior offense.

Defense:

UVA runs an aggressive 4-3 defense that leaves them susceptible to giving up big plays. I expect nothing different against Pitt as the offense has shown tendencies to make mistakes (which is probably why Pitt was uber conservative in the second half of the VT game). Take this play against William & Mary where UVA sent six on a blitz and had three deep DBs to protect the long ball and STILL lost a 1 on 1 battle.

I can’t tell if it’s scheme or athletic ability, but UVA players seem a few steps behind on defense consistently. A lot of times in the passing game guys were open with noticeable space between him and the UVA defender. I don’t know if they’re too aggressive or just slow, TV angles don’t always give the best view. Either way, Boyd is going to find open space easy to find.

One player to watch for is LB Micah Kiser. The sophomore has 4.5 sacks on the season, an impressive number for a MLB. Kiser also leads the Cavaliers in tackles with 39. CB Maurice Canady is tall (6’2”), led the team in interceptions last year, and has some NFL potential, but I’m not sure I see it on tape. Late against Notre Dame, Canady nearly grabbed a game-winning pick and then later on that drive got burnt by Will Fuller for the game-losing score. Not good.

Overall, the defense is too prone to giving up big plays. There’s some talent, but I think the scheme is too aggressive for the players they have. The big concern is that Pitt falls prey to the aggressive defense and makes mistakes. I’d expect to see more quick plays from Pitt in the form of screens, hitches, and slants. That’s one thing to help counter the OL’s inconsistent pass blocking. Worst case scenario the offense turns the ball over and can’t get moving, putting the defense in bad spots. Best case the running game gets going and the offense does whatever it pleases.

Prediction:

Narduzzi’s energetic coaching style should help Pitt avoid a letdown. All this team needs to do is play smart football and execute the simple stuff. Pitt is better than UVA, especially on defense, and has the talent on offense to score more than enough.

Pitt wins handily 31-13.