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July 14, 2015

With the predictions we talked about in the comments in our last article I thought it would be fun to look back at this time three years ago and remind us all of what predictions we  made prior to the 2012 season getting underway.

This three year old article, “2102 Season Predictions”, posted in the last week of August 2012, offered five questions for the readers to respond to in the comments section.  Here are those questions with my predictions included:

What will be PITT’s regular season record, what bowl game if any and why will it be that way?  (Actual: 6-6 in the regular season with a 38-17 loss in the BBVA Compass Bowl against Ole Miss to end 6-7.)

*  I think PITT will be a 7-5 team this season, 8-4 at best and will get to some minor bowl. I think we are 3-3 after the first six games. (Reed’s)

* 9-3; We win the Big East and play in the Orange Bowl

*  13-0 with a blowout win in our BCS bowl game.

*  Pitt goes 9-3. **If Tino tanks, no more than 6-6.

*  Pitt should have the most talented team in this conference… except… well… one little 5’10” problem named Tino Sunseri.

What will be Tino Sunseri’s and Ray Graham’s final stats?  (Sunseri actual: 256/393, 13.3 ypc, 3,288 yds, 65%, 21 TDs, 3 INTs and Ray Graham actual: 222/1042, 4.7 ypc, 11 TDs)

*  As far as Sunseri’s totals I’ll say 17 TDs/10 INTs, 65% and 2500 yards. He (Graham) MAY get 1000 yards if he plays the vast majority of the games but he won’t be near his 5.8 ypc average we saw last season. (Reed’s)

*  I predict 2500 yards with 20 TD’s and 15 picks(he’ll be sack conscious this year) for Sir Tino

*  Tino 1500 yds, 6 TD, 4 int. gets injured/pulled. Ray over 1000 yds in 7 games.

*  I have Tino throwing the ball only about 18 times a game (which will go a long way towards the 9-3 record, though, yes, my 5 yards per attempt is probably a little low.

*  Tino is going to throw far fewer times than in previous years. Clock management and Chryst not asking more than he can give past the point of diminishing returns. (393 attempts)

Which new “star”, either a new or returning player, will burst onto the scene in a way we didn’t expect?

* Breakout player of the year will be Rotheram or Pitts. Vinopal, Grigsby and Brinson are sleepers. (Reed’s)

*  Carswell the TE (Actual: 13.163, 12.5 ypr, 2 TDs; dismissed from team after tge season ended.

*  Breakout season goes to Ronald Jones(Actual: 3/14, 4.7 ypc, 0 TDs)

* Your breakout star is J.P Holtz, who catches 8 TDS and about 750 yards receiving.(Actual: 13/173, 13.3 ypc, 3 TDs)

*  J.P. Holtz makes all BE 2nd team as a true frosh.

*  Shell, Holtz, Bisnowaty, Rippy and Voytik all burst on to the scene with stellar stats and by year’s end have been dubbed by the media as Pitt’s Freshman Fantastic Five. (Shell and Rippy left the team after the season, Voytik didn’t start until ’14)

*  I agree with the prior poster that Lafayette Pitts will be the breakout star this year.  (Actual:  35 tkls, 1 INT and 2 fumbles recovered)

*  New star will be Tyrone Ezell getting dirty in the trenches.  (Actual: 39 tkls, 7 TFL, 3.0 sacks for 16 yds

*  T.J. Clemmings finally turns his stars into sacks. (Actual: 20 tkls, 1 TFL, 0 Sacks.  Moved to OL after the season and started as the Right Tackle in ’03.)

What will be the most disappointing aspect of the season?

* Disappointment will be losing close games against better opponents much like last season when we dropped four big games by 12 points. (Reed’s)

* Loss in week 1 to Youngstown; correctly called by the Blather commenter “Pitt in Oregon”!!  It was a 31-17 loss at home.

* Not having the chance to meet WVU in the backyard brawl or PSU for the in state civil war. Also Dan Mason not being a stud anymore. (Actual: Five games, 27 tkls, 3.5 TFLs for 11 yds and 1.5 sacks for 6 yds.)

* Inconsistent play on both sides of the ball. Still giving up 4th Qtr leads – the Wannstache legacy lives on.

How will PITT fans feel in January of 2013 about the Paul Chryst hiring?

* Fans will be split on Chryst. There won’t be any off-field drama and we’ll win 7-8 games but his recruiting will be better than most expected and most fans will look forward to next season. (Reed’s)

* Despite a so-so record, Pitt will be sound fundamentally and that will have Pitt fans optimistic about the future…and still believing in Paul Chryst.

* Pitt fans will feel glad just to have a coach come back for another year, but the angst-meter on recruiting will skyrocket as PC pulls in another average recruiting class. Steam will actually shoot out of Dokish’s ears.

Dokish was spot on with this about the 2013 recruiting class: “If the Panthers land classes like this every year and coach them well, they will probably be a 6-8 win team in most years. 

* Ecstatic–like ND fans felt after Ara Parseghian’s first season when he took a ND team that went 2-7 the prior year and finished 9-1.

* Good but yearning for more. I think the play calling will be decent, game management very good and we should see players get better as the year progresses.

* Fans will think of Chryst what people thought of Howland .  That meat and potatoes taste good.

Take a look back at the comments you and others wrote in response, some of them are right on the mark and some were so far off it is pretty funny… especially the responses to what Sunseri’s final stats would be… you could see just who really disliked Sunseri and who felt he would put up some real passing production.

Of course, hindsight is 20-20 and we always know more after the season ends then before it begins (I have a firm grasp of the obvious!).  I think that all-in-all the predictions regarding the season itself were better than the ones on the player’s future accomplishments were.

Most had us at 6-6, 7-5 in the regular season and nobody predicted a losing season overall.  I think come the last week of this year’s fall camp we’ll probably see about the same thoughts on wins and losses.

One of the things that jumped out to me is that a lot of the readers commenting on this article don’t seem to be contributing much any longer.  If you are still out there reading but not commenting please come home to God’s Little Acre and get back in the game.





Much harder schedule this year.

Could be another 6-6 but doubt it. I see 7-5 or maybe 8-4. And a bowl win. Where and against whom I do not know. But isnt all this just a wild ass guess.

I could wish for an ACC championship. A Heisman for Conner. 24 TD’s for Boyd. 60 Sacks and 30 picks by the D.

I just want Hope. I want a plan for Excellence. I want to see Pitt going in the right direction and improving as the season goes on.

I want to say Pitt is It and have it mean something.

Comment by TX Panther 07.14.15 @ 10:42 pm

I’m ready for a wildly disappointing season.

Comment by Chris 07.14.15 @ 10:53 pm

It’s going to be a wild ride, 6-6 seems to be about right but we have a difficult schedule and if the defense improves 8-4 could be attainable. So I’m going 7-5 with and a minor bowl.

Comment by WLAT 910 radio and the Big Beat! 07.14.15 @ 11:33 pm

I became an official(hope I’m accepted) Blatherer in 2012ish. I was not on that thread.

Good and sad to see a voice from the beyond. We came a little short of his prediction, but nice to see my man frankcan on that blast from the past.

Was surprised at wbb’s optimistic 9-3..

Comment by Pap76 07.14.15 @ 11:34 pm

Maybe it was 2013 I joined the family. Time can get away from you.

Benn a pretty regular poster. God, Reed you’re right..lot of fallen soldiers…

Comment by Pap76 07.14.15 @ 11:43 pm

It’s crazy how some things you remember definitively and other things allude you.

Spent 6 mos or do just perusing and gettin a feel for The Blather,1st time I posted was late July or early Aug, either 2012 or 2013.

Either way, glad I found you guys…

Comment by Pap76 07.14.15 @ 11:48 pm

Hey I hit the Bowl Game we were going to play in….right on the money !

And was too optimistic at 7-5.

1) 7-5 and guess what a 3rd trip to the CCVA Tino & Sal Get together Bowl in beautiful Birmingham Alabami (yes i spelled that correct). It will be this way because we can’t have Sal & Roxy traveling too far to watch their son play in a bowl game.

Comment by Emel 08.23.12 @ 9:53 am

Not bad huh !

Comment by Emel 07.15.15 @ 12:04 am

Reading the comments from back then is pretty funny.

It was a pretty optimistic group by and far.

We are the eternal Charlie Browns of the college football world.

Comment by Emel 07.15.15 @ 12:20 am

Anybody who doesn’t predict a 6 – 6 season isn’t paying attention. We are, me included, optimistic every year with 7 to 10 wins …. but seriously, how can predict anything else?

This program has been mediocre since 2010, and except for 2002, 2008 and 2009, has been mediocre since 1996 when we stunk.

I hate to be realistic here … but someone has to be.

Comment by wbb 07.15.15 @ 5:40 am

I too have to see the improvement so I’ll say 6-6 in the regular season with a minor bowl win for 7-6.

Comment by PittPT 07.15.15 @ 6:24 am

“Anybody who doesn’t predict a 6 – 6 season isn’t paying attention. We are, me included, optimistic every year with 7 to 10 wins …. but seriously, how can predict anything else?
This program has been mediocre since 2010, and except for 2002, 2008 and 2009, has been mediocre since 1996 when we stunk.

I hate to be realistic here … but someone has to be.”

Ehhhhhh I feel you, buuuuut……

I’m the true anti-Machiavellian / End-All, Be-All / Endgame-Focus / etc. : I live for digging into the Nitty-Gritty Details of why results happened the way they did, and how to fix+solve+improve undesired results.

So, (cough) Ahem! The reign of Nordenberg and his Lieutenant (Dan!) Steve Pederson began in 1996 — and frankly they led Pitt from the Dire, Horrific recent “Dark Age” PItt had been in. But they had zero Ambition beyond making Pitt Football “Not Embarrassing”. They kinnnnda succeeded in that really — as in their minds 6-6 meant they were keeping PItt Football’s Head “Above Water” and therefore meeting their personal quota.

Flash-Forward to now:

“Baller” Chancellor Gallagher (Who I gladly Betroth to you my first Born Daughter to, should he desire — hahaha love this Man!!)

—- Who’s he bring in to be “His Man”???? Ex 4 Year VArsity D-1 Basketball Player (led his team to Tournies!!), Charisma Monster and cool-A$$ rock-star AD Scott Barnes (Take my MOney, Take my Money!!!)

And of course, In the “DArk KNight” Narduzzi we invest ourselves for this upcoming season —- He’s like a splice of Graham (Huge Ambition, Big Personality, Wants it All!), Wannstedt (Loves his players, already shows he loves PItt, genuine and Hard-working guy you’d love to have a beer — or diet soda if you’re off-it lol — with) — and even Chryst (loves Bratwurst lol — but no a great Defensive Technician)

The “Dynamic Duo” at the top for PItt will pour in their Hearts — and therefor, Resources — into PItt sports and connect with all of us supporters — vs. guys who absolutely met their ambitions in Nordy and Pede (his pants) – erson: the ambition to just make Pitt not horrible anymore lol.

Comment by Pat "Dark Knight" Narduzzi 07.15.15 @ 6:27 am

P.S. Chancellor Gallagher if you track me down from my I.P. Address and demand my first born daughter…..all I can do is make you up and Avatar on my computer and that will have to do unfortunately, unless I sleep-walked one night and did something crazy —– because how would an Internet Troll who lives in his Momma’s basement make offspring??? jk jk

—Pre-empting “Dr. Tom” and “Emel” haha

Comment by Pat "Dark Knight" Narduzzi 07.15.15 @ 6:32 am

6-6 would blow. There MUST be improvement/momentum this coming season.

Comment by notrocketscience 07.15.15 @ 7:28 am

or else?

Comment by wbb 07.15.15 @ 7:56 am

Sat. Sep. 5 (W) Youngstown State* Heinz Field • Pittsburgh, PA ESPN3 Sat. Sep. 12 (W) at Akron* InfoCision Stadium–Summa Field • Akron, OH
Sat. Sep. 19 (W) at Iowa* Kinnick Stadium • Iowa City, IA BTN
Sat. Oct. 3 (L) at Virginia Tech Lane Stadium • Blacksburg, VA
Sat. Oct. 10 (W) Virginia Heinz Field • Pittsburgh, PA
Sat. Oct. 17 (L) at Georgia Tech Bobby Dodd Stadium • Atlanta, GA
Sat. Oct. 24 (W) at Syracuse Carrier Dome • Syracuse, NY (Rivalry)
Thu. Oct. 29 (L) North Carolina Heinz Field • Pittsburgh, PA ESPN
Sat. Nov. 7 (L) Notre Dame* Heinz Field • Pittsburgh, PA (Rivalry)
Sat. Nov. 14 (W) at Duke Wallace Wade Stadium • Durham, NC
Sat. Nov. 21 (W) Louisville Heinz Field • Pittsburgh, PA
Fri. Nov. 27 (L) Miami (FL) Heinz Field • Pittsburgh, PA

Comment by Timmeh 07.15.15 @ 8:26 am

‘ Pitt goes 9-3. **If Tino tanks, no more than 6-6.’

This was mine back when I posted more frequently. I guess you could say Captain Comeback didn’t exactly tank, but after losing to YSU, I knew 9-3 was out the window.

Comment by pghFred 07.15.15 @ 8:31 am

6-6 would be extremely disappointing. Even with a more difficult schedule, we have Conner, Boyd, depth on the O-line, good tight ends, and a QB with a year’s experience and some depth. Only lost two guys in Clemmings and Rotherham on the line, and little used Bennett. Everyone is a year older.

If Narduzzi is the true defensive genius, he should get much better results than last year. We have solid D-tackles and depth. We have quality depth in the defensive backfield, with some experience. The question mark positions of D-End and linebacker could be much better than last year, there is more depth at linebacker, and more speed at D-end.

I say 7-5 and with some timely turnovers and few injuries 8-4.

Comment by gc 07.15.15 @ 8:45 am

I sense a SOP sentiment among the Blather faithful I think we vastly over achieve this season. Pitt FSU in the ACC title game.

Comment by Chick 07.15.15 @ 9:14 am

Josh Brinson @ Pitt FB?
Yep, he suited up for us and caught a couple of passes between 2011-2012. His stats are truly underwhelming so I’m thinking it’s not just me who asked their self ” Who the fck is Josh B.?” According to our friends at ESPN stats & info, the kid tallied a total of 5 receptions for a whopping 69 yards; 1 for 3 yards under the expert tutelage of HC Todd G. And 4 for 66, by chance, under HCPC.
There will always be a couple of players on the roster that are seemingly invisible; we’ll never see them in a Panther uniform EVER. So with regard to Joshua Brinson, I naturally thought that Reed made a mistake, as he has some grammar issues at times but moreover I thought he was mistakenly referring to newly committed Bricen Garner (Central Catholic (Pittsburgh, PA); S 6-1/158 0.8567; Commit 6/18/2015.
Sorry to doubt you, Reed; you are 96.9% accurate in your reports. But this post (or work, rather) was a tad confusing to read. Enough so, that I thought you may have been high or something before posting:)

****Just teasing, Reed! Thanks, as always, for your hard work, dedication and commitment to us Blatherites**** Sincerely.

Prediction for ’15: 6-6

Comment by Neil 07.15.15 @ 9:54 am

I have to be hopeful (but have trouble with that because I’ve been a Pitt fan for 46 years)so I’m going with 7-5. We get 1 more upset and we’re 8-4. I believe in Voytik and think he’s a gamer and a leader. I believe in Narduzzi and am prepared to defend my love of koolaid. I still think the D-Line hurts us and we’ll give up points but I love the O-Line and I think we can score.

Comment by The Hagen 07.15.15 @ 10:01 am

RivalBlogScout said this of my status : “Found Blather during recent FBHC search. NR. Non-preferred walk on, posted first time around Spring Game. Blather would prefer he move on to his life’s pursuit. Advertised on Facebook for another Blog – 107 thousand strong from central Pa have given likes if will have labotomy and submit to cult training”
Dark Knight have you been channeling Hunter S. Thompson from your basement room? 🙂
As Reed has not asked for specific predictions, I have many ideas, most bad. I will say only for now 7-5 (an eternal optimist). Back to number crunching.

Comment by rkb 07.15.15 @ 10:13 am

If Voytik can be better, and the defense improves leaps and bounds, Pitt can surprise and win some of the iffy games like NC and VT. Pitt is maturing as a group and now have the benefit of two years of experience in many positions. They have to learn how to win. It should start this year.

Comment by Chethejet 07.15.15 @ 10:25 am

Here it is, out of the gate fast, then stumble reading their clippings. Always struggle with Louisville. Duke and Ga. Tech have been tough recently, and Virginia gives us trouble. Nard will get the team ready for the big games against ND and UNC.
W YSU 9/5/15
W Akron 9/12/15
W Iowa 9/19/15
W Va. Tech 10/3/15
L Va.10/10/15
L Ga. Tech 10/17/15
W Syr. 10/24/15
W UNC 10/29/15
W ND 11/7/15
L Duke 11/14/15
L Louisville 11/21/15
W Miami 11/27/15

That will be 8-4 and a mid tier bowl against a SEC team that runs us into the ground.

Comment by scriptrules 07.15.15 @ 10:40 am

Michael Young selected by NCAA for oversight committee, one of only two players on the committee. It is a two year term … guess that NCAA determined that no way he is turning pro after this year. I jest — he is obviously a very good player and apparently very articulate.

link to post-gazette.com

Comment by wbb 07.15.15 @ 10:58 am

Good teams win. Bad teams lose. Bad coaching makes winners average and bad teams terrible. Difficulty of schedule is a moot point. Winners find a way to win and losers find a way to lose. I, personally, think this staff is full of winners who coach a fun style of football that the team and fans will embrace. Stop looking in the past. Not the same ole Pitt.

Comment by Tossing Thabeets 07.15.15 @ 11:03 am

I love Tossing’s outlook. He is right more than most of us and I respect his opinion. Thanks for the bitch slap TT…

Comment by The Hagen 07.15.15 @ 11:20 am

@Tossing – Agree with much of what you said. Winners do find a way to win. Tough schedule or weak schedule, just like you said. Winners make their “own” breaks, they don’t blame the refs. Having talent, making good decisions, making plays when it counts and believing you are going to win does wonders for a football team.

I know you’ve mentioned several times that this is not the same ole Pitt. It could be different this time, but we still “actual” results.

Comment by bj 07.15.15 @ 11:26 am

Each new regime deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Comment by wbb 07.15.15 @ 11:36 am

… however, I just returned from Vegas where I just put down half of my life’s earnings that Pitt will win 6 games this year.

Comment by wbb 07.15.15 @ 11:37 am

We should be better than we were last season. Conner/Boyd/Voytik and OL are one year older and more savvy. Will be nice to have Conner actually be a threat to catch AND run.

Remember a lot of stalled drives in the past 2 years when Conner was ALWAYS taken out on third down and Bennett was brought in and thrown a swing pass that didn’t get the first down. We were a very predictable offense.

Better coaching in all positions and more fire and emotion will motivate the players to be better overall. It may take a couple of years to get to the ACC Championship game but this coaching staff is capable of getting us there if we are patient and get behind this team in the stands as I am planning to do. H2P!

Comment by Panther Fan in Hoopieland 07.15.15 @ 11:40 am

10-2

How’s that for an overly optimistic, beaten child, kool-aide drinkin, starved for “the good ‘ol days”, loathing Pitt fan?

HTP

Comment by Pitt it IS 07.15.15 @ 11:49 am

not to mention the college football world will be stunned by Pitt’s turn around and ‘Duzzi will be hailed as savior to Pitt football.

Comment by Pitt it IS 07.15.15 @ 11:50 am

My guess is 8 – 4 with losses to IA, GT, ND (ugh) and Miami. 6 – 2 in Coastal.

Comment by Frank MD 07.15.15 @ 11:55 am

hard to believe this team manhandled Pitt a year ago

link to cleveland.com

Comment by wbb 07.15.15 @ 12:44 pm

Neil – I wrote that about Brinson because he was doing really good things in the spring and the fall camps before the 2012 season.

Here is what I wrote back then: “Keep an eye on Josh Brinson this year also. He got a lot of work in the spring and has been very productive so far in this camp also.”

Obviously Chryst and Rudolph didn’t think it mattered much….

Comment by Reed 07.15.15 @ 1:45 pm

Man I found this oddly depressing haha, thanks for the find though, Reed. I don’t believe I had found the blather at that point.

As for this season. I am not particularly optimistic and I’ll give 4 reasons why.

1. We have a first time head coach and he will make mistakes that will cost us wins. It is inevitable and OK. It doesn’t tell us anything about how good he’ll be with experience.

2. We lost 2 starters off the offensively line and we’ve already lost one of the replacement starters in JJS for the year. That’s 3 lineman we’re down.

3. We didn’t address our two biggest weaknesses with recruiting. We have no second WR and we lost the only other potentially quality WR when Jennings transferred. If you thought they could lock in on Boyd last year, just wait. And we lost our only 2 DE recruits before signing day. So our biggest issues went unaddressed.

4. This schedule is a big jump up from last year. At Iowa instead of at home. ND replaces FIU. And Louisville replaces BC. That’s 3 losses right there.

I have a hard time finding more than 7 wins.
Assuming we win our first two games, which would sadly be an accomplishment in its own right, expecting this first time coach, his brand new staff, and such a relatively untalented roster to go better than 5-5 against P5 opponents seems like a big stretch.

Comment by PittHW 07.15.15 @ 3:21 pm

Team might actually be better this year, but it might not show up in the wins and losses.

Due to the higher degree of difficulty of the schedule.

If nothing else we have to exorcise the demons of YSU and Akron.

I mean by really pounding them.

Comment by Emel 07.15.15 @ 4:26 pm

Need to think beyond 6-6 or mediocre. If you can’t see the future, you are lost in the past.

Comment by TX Panther 07.15.15 @ 7:51 pm

I’m the world’s worst at this. Every time I start to predict, I feel myself choking on my Kool Aid! Last year we were the youngest team in college ball. Those guys are 1 year older now. Those guys have 7 months learning Nard Dog’s D and Chaney’s O. We still have the Roadgraders – with depth. Everybody has the Houston Blues as inspiration.

I don’t see SOP this year. (oops – here comes the Kool Aid bubbling up again – I need some Tums!). We lost a ton in the 4th Q last year. I don’t see that happening this year. OK (deep breath): 8-4.

Offensive production better than last year. Not because they are a lot better. But because the new D schemes will get them the ball a lot more often than last year. I got so depressed last year watching us giving up LONG drives, and constantly losing the field position game. I think we’ll have MANY MORE 3rd down stops this year – our O will get the ball in much better field position. We’ll get to field many more punts – dare I say a few LONG returns this year??

And our Red Zone scoring will pick up right where it left off last year

Please pass the Kool Aid!

Comment by Savannah Panther 07.15.15 @ 10:28 pm

Emel, the schedule might be somewhat more difficult, but I don’t really see any ‘world-beaters’ on the schedule.

GT is probably the best team we play. Pitt, along with ND, Iowa, Miami, Duke, Lou, VT and VA are all decent/good teams, but none are outstanding or even in the ‘very good’ category.

Will Pitt be challenged? Of course. But looking at the schedule, there isn’t a team that Pitt cannot play with (like FSU a couple years back).

I’m not going to make a prediction yet, but I would be disappointed if Pitt doesn’t win at least 7.

Comment by pghFred 07.16.15 @ 7:28 am

We really didn’t get blown out last year.

Defense is likely to improve, by virtue of removing the OutHouse.

Need the offense not to take a step back with Cheney. I’ve heard his scheme can be complicated and takes a couple of years for the players to really grasp it.

I firmly believe that a WR will emerge, as well as a pass rushing DE.

I’m predicting 9-3 but 6-6 could very well be the number.

Comment by Atlanta Panther 07.16.15 @ 1:28 pm

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