Warning, this post has math and math based analysis. Enter at your own risk.
No matter how you shake it, Tom Savage took a beating on Saturday. You can blame the OL, play-calling, and Savage himself. I’m not too interested in blame. I’m interested in facts: how much time did Savage have from the snap of the ball until he was sacked, where did the sacker come from, and was there a possible option to get rid of the ball?
First, some details on what I’m looking at. I’m not the biggest fan of Pro Football Focus’ analysis, but advanced stats? I love them. Yes, they’re pretty much exclusively an NFL website, but I want everyone to look at the second chart in this link. The chart is the average time it takes from snap to sack for NFL QBs in midseason 2012. It’s a little dated, but the math remains a good barometer.
If you look, you’ll see NFL QBs had anywhere from 4 seconds to 2.3 seconds between snap and sack on average. The longer the better, obviously. Right smack in the middle was about 3.2 seconds from snap to sack. So, if your QB is sacked on average later than 3.2 seconds, your OL is above average. Below that, obviously means below average. The worst in the NFL at that point was the Arizona Cardinals and poor Kevin Kolb only had 2.3 seconds to get rid of the ball before his average sack. You can’t control for mobile QBs, but it’s a good way to judge things overall.
Yes, this is the NFL and not college football, but OLs and DLs are equally more talented and if most NFL QBs struggle under 2.8 seconds, you better believe college QBs will too. With all of that said, let’s look at each of Savage’s sacks.
Sack 1 (1st qtr, 1st drive, 3rd and 1): Savage was on a roll out and no one was open. Not really a sack, more of a run that lost yards. I won’t count this one for blocking purposes. It was just a dumb play call.
Sack 2 (2nd, qtr 5th drive, 1st and 10): 4 man rush. Savage had 2.05 seconds from snap to sack. Hopkins from VT went right through the A gap between Rowell and King. It looked like a double team. Savage had no way to get off a pass on this play.
Sack 3 (2nd qtr, 6th drive, 1st and 10): 4 man rush. Savage had 2.65 seconds from snap to sack. Hopkins came from inside again and got the sack after Bisnowaty let Dadi Nicholas speed rush him outside. This forced Savage to step up in the pocket…right into the sack. Bennett was the checkdown but Savage was looking left and Bennett was to the right. There probably wasn’t enough time to get back over, but it certainly was possible if he feels the rush a bit better. Rowell and King clearly had a miscommunication. Rowell came off of Hopkins to help Rotheram and King came off to help Bisnowaty, even though his rusher went wide. I have no idea why this happened. It gave Hopkins an untouched path to the QB.
Sack 4 (2nd qtr, 6th drive, 1st and 10): 4 man rush. Savage had 2.82 seconds from snap to sack. Clemmings was beaten outside by James Gayle. There was not a visible checkdown route. Bennett was out on a route but he was covered. The rest of the line blocked just fine. Savage had some time and I only saw one receiver (Bennett) within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. I’m guessing Savage was looking deep, can’t tell from TV angle.
Sack 5 (2nd qtr, 6th drive, 2nd and 12): 4 man rush again. Savage had 2.17 seconds from snap to sack. Bisnowaty was beaten badly on a speed rush from Dadi Nicholas. Savage started to step up as Nicholas got to him. He felt the rush, but he was too late. I don’t think he anticipated Nicholas would get there that quickly. Bisnowaty was slow out of his stance. Savage was in shotgun and right before the ball was snapped, Biz was looking in. The silent count gave Nicholas the advantage. This is where inexperience on the road hurts. This is the first game the OL had to use a silent count and on this play it hurt because Biz was slow out of his stance. The result was a sack.
Sack 6 (3rd qtr, 8th drive, 1st and 10): VT blitzed with 7 guys. Savage had 3.7 seconds from snap to sack. However, he had 1.9 seconds from snap to pressure. The rest of the time he was trying to dodge the blitzers. The initial pressure came from the right and Orndoff just flat out didn’t see him. Orndoff and Holtz double teamed one guy. Holtz was inside, Orndoff outside. If Orndoff actually reads the blitz properly, Savage has a chance. However, the play then completely broke down. Biz and King both got beaten and here’s what the end of the play looked like. 4 VT players and Tom Savage in the backfield. It started with a blitzer off of the right who went untouched thanks to Orndoff, then 2 guys lost their block and another VT defender came in late untouched. All around disaster from the blockers.
Sack 7: (4th qtr, 9th drive, 2nd and 5): VT blitzed, 6 total rushers. Savage had 2.11 seconds from snap to initial pressure. He bobbed and weaved for about 2 seconds after but it was hopeless. Biz was flat out beaten by DE Collins. He disengaged and went inside Biz, then he ran over Bennett. Biz panics and lets a delayed blitzer go through untouched and King loses his guy to the outside after Savage flushes that way. The blitz was fairly obvious as VT stacked the line on the left side. While Savage had no time, he also had to have known the blitz was coming. Not sure if he has the ability to change the play, but he certainly didn’t do it.
Sack 8: (4th qtr, 9th drive, 1st and 25): VT blitzed, 6 total rushers. Savage had 2.3 seconds from snap to sack. The free rusher gets to Bennett and goes straight through him. Biz lets his guy go outside of him again. Two guys with a clear shot at Savage. Clemmings is beaten initially but he rides his guy wide, a good save. Savage does have Garner open and when he looks his direction he sees the 2 VT guys headed straight for him. Even in slow motion (Fios DVR rocks for this!!!!) it’s not fair to say he could’ve gotten the throw over.
Overall average time from snap to sack or pressure that screws up the play: 2.28 seconds. On the first watch, I felt Savage could’ve gotten 2 or 3 throws off on these plays. The problem was 5 of the 7 actual sacks came on 4 man rushes. A QB should have more than 2.3 to 2.7 seconds on a 4 man rush. Your OL needs to give you that 3+ seconds to get the ball off. If you break down the sacks, it’s at least easy to see that there were huge mental issues. The only time you should be under 2.8 seconds is if there’s a blitz and then it’s on the QB to read the blitz and find the hot receiver.
On two sacks, King and Rowell allowed a DL to go right through them. Those are pure mental mistakes. Rotheram seemed to do a good job because not once did a sack come from the inside on the right and I don’t recall any moments live where I saw his name. Clemmings was beaten once outside but the playcall had Savage looking deep since the offense was in scoring range. The real problem was Bisnowaty. I’m not going to go back and count how many times he was beaten just on these sacks. I’m not happy with the mental errors by King and Rowell that led to two sacks, but those are things that can easily be fixed. Sometimes an OT loses to a speed rusher and that’s what happened to Clemmings.
But Biz? He was beaten outside so many times it’s hard to say why. Yes, one of them was definitely due to a silent count that caused him to be late out of his stance. But several other times? No excuses. When VT did blitz, they had issues getting a head on a head. Orndoff nearly got Savage killed when he ignored a blitzer. All in all, just a putrid day from blockers all around: OL, TEs, and RBs.
Will we get one in the four team playoff? Clemson needs to beat South Carolina. Miami, Clemson, FSU, VT can be a spoiler. Interesting stuff.
I think we need to beat GT, to be assured of 7 wins. NC and Syracuse on the road will be tough.
Most desired win, ND.
Whoever wins Sat night should have a good chance of going undefeated and making the BCS
This could be a bellwether game. May just tell us a lot about coach Chryst and the program.
Do we come out and play like the big boys we want to be, and put a 42-10 smackdown on an FBS team?
Or do we come out, stumble around, have a back and forth, up and down game, and barely win in the end or possibly even get upset??
Another game to be put with Ohio, Toledo, Bowling Green, YSU???
Has there been progress made?? Progress says you start thumping any FBS teams that are on your schedule. I know they have a good quarterback, that should mean jack to any BCS conference team worth their weight.
Does an occaisional App. St over Michigan happen? Sure it does. VERY RARELY!!!
Most of the time, if you watch the scores, FBS teams are the lap dogs.
Does it mean much to blow out FBS teams? Absolutely not, but that is what you’re supposed to do, and having a tight game or losing says a lot.
But now we once again have a perfect opponent to work on just those issues that plaqued us in the VT loss. Provide QB protection, re-establish a solid run game against the Monarchs and this one should be a sleeper for Pitt. But then again, we have a QB that is really talented playing against Pitt on Saturday night. Does he expose the soft underbelly of the “BAD” Pitt defense that made an appearance in the Duke game?
I’m more confident in the Offense rebounding in this OD game than I am in our Defense continuing to play at the high level that they have over the previous two weeks. More on this apprehension I have later.
Tom Savage, QB. We could have gone with receivers Tyler Boyd or Devin Street, but there is a reason those guys are having a great year. It starts with Savage, who has given the Panthers the ability to open up the passing game because of his arm strength. Plus, anybody who can stand in the pocket and take 15 sacks in the last two games is an MVP in our book.
Defensive MVP: Aaron Donald, DT. Donald went into the season with multiple preseason accolades and he has not disappointed, Donald leads the country in sacks per game (1.60 avg.) and tackles for loss per game (2.40 avg.). Donald has eight total sacks and 12 TFLs on the year. Donald has at least one sack in each game this year, including two last Saturday at Virginia Tech.
Insightful remarks about Savage despite the undesrving rap he takes in this blog and now from his coach. I am still a Chyrist supporter but his imitaion of Fraud after VT blaming Savage for what I see as a self serving attempt to disguise what is suppose to be his major strength and why he was hired development of the OL.
It is really not as early as it seems. 11/2 years is enough to see major improvement in the OL not 3 to last among sacks in the nation. IMO that is why he is calling out scapecoats . My first finger would be pointed at the coaching staff. LT too slow move him to guard is overmatched every game do not worry about Johnson’s read shirt next year with Savage gone unless Pitt can find an eligible transfer with our QB situation there will be no bowl. If Johnson can help Pitt now it is not inconceivable that Pitt could run the table with Savage. N.D. is a perfect match for us not a fast team, GT we could outscore them with OL changes, Miami with any improvement is a possible.
One more point on Savage. I feel bad for Boyd next year with the reincarnation of Tino. Because of this he may be gone after 2 years like Fitzgeral having to deal with Rutherford and Baldwin with Tino.
Street because of Savage has a possible NFL career. His handlers also taught him well to be the team mouthpiece for Chyrst something the GM’s consider rather than the truthful compliants of Baldwin about Tino (seen as a malcontent).
^^^ See, those are called “facts”. Your stating that Chryst threw Savage under the bus when all he was doing was saying that the fault for the sacks lay with both the QB AND the OL is an “opinion”.
Not only are the posts few and far between, when he does post, it’s like 5 or 6 bullet points of what he watched, and what we all watched.
1. Offense played bad.
2. Offensive line played bad.
3. Connor got hurt
4. Defense played ok.
5. Savage got sacked.
Not sure why he even bothers posting anymore.
If you can’t give some substance and evaluation, why bother??
Because of their information, I choose to come here.
“He gives us the best chance to win”.
Cause we heard it often enough last year ! lol
1. Their offense is pretty good.
2. Their defense is pretty good.
3. Their kicking game is pretty good.
By the way, no big deal at all.
I was just curious and bemused why a fellow Pitt fan would comment on a Pitt blog, that another fellow Pitt blog was better???
Odd I thought.
Just based on statistics Tino was the superior QB,
From a Ph.D. in Sociology
link to triblive.com