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March 17, 2013

Wounded Pride at #8

Filed under: Basketball,NCAA Tourney — Chas @ 7:06 pm

So after all my comments about how seeding is not as important as match-ups and where you play the games. When Pitt ended up as a Number 8 seed, well that kind of went out the window.

Pitt was a top-20 team. They were ranked in the top-10 in KenPom.com. The ESPN system of BPI said top-15. In the RPI, Pitt was only #43. The NCAA Tournament Committee Chair, Mike Bobinski has said they don’t just look at RPI. That they look at Sagarin, KenPom, and plenty of rankings beyond RPI. And when there is a significant discrepancy they look at a team closer.

I guess they didn’t like what they saw. On their official 1-68 list they had Pitt at #31. The popular sentiment is that the Committee leaned towards agreeing with the RPI rationale. Which penalized Pitt for their non-con strength of schedule. That the Committee wanted to penalize Pitt for a weak non-con.

Even so, it seems that this is more than a single seed line penalty to be dropped to an #8 seed.

(more…)

Selection Sunday

Filed under: Basketball,NCAA Tourney — Chas @ 9:39 am

You know, when you aren’t on the bubble and you aren’t on the top 4 seed lines, this seems like a whole lot of standing around for nothing. All the talking heads on CBS and ESPN. Along with the punditry online and in print are focused on the #1 seeds and the last 4 in (along with last 4 out and 4 more after that for good measure).

Pitt falls into neither of those places. Pitt will be seeded somewhere in the #5 to #7 range. The seeding will have to take into account the seeding of Big East teams placed ahead of Pitt.

Louisville is expected to be a #1 seed. Georgetown, a #2 or #3. Syracuse a #3 or #4. Marquette will be somewhere in the #4 or #5. Notre Dame is probably a #5 or #6. (Villanova and Cinci will likely be anywhere from #9 to #11)

Where they get seeded and what bracket they get placed will have a significant impact on Pitt’s seeding. Protected seeds — the first 4 lines — will keep conference foes from facing each other in the opening weekend.

So, for example, say the committee made a Pitt a #5 seed but Pitt got placed in the same region as #4 seed Marquette. If the committee could not make it work to switch them to another region, they could drop Pitt down to the #6 seed so that they avoid any potential 1st weekend meeting.

Needless to say, seeding after first few spots is more of a point of pride than true relevance. Match-ups become much more important. Who you face and potentially face in each round makes a bigger difference.

The selection show starts at 6pm on CBS. The babbling and endless analysis goes on through tomorrow.

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