Plenty of people e-mailing, tweeting and commenting about Ken Pomeroy deflating some rather lazy analysis from college basketball writers and Pitt’s offense.
Of course, that team was Duke, and we can debate forever whether they were truly the best team in the nation but it’s unreasonable to deny that its offense was one of the most prolific last season.
This season, we appear headed down the same road. To say Pitt’s offense could hinder a tournament run is like saying Kemba Walker’s ability to hit late jump shots will hinder UConn’s chances of success. Sure, eventually Walker will come up empty on a final game-deciding possession, just as someday Pitt’s offense will have a bad game. But that misses the point.
The Panthers’ offense is very similar to Duke’s last season. They make three-point shots, they don’t commit many turnovers, and they get to the free throw line a fair amount. And as the Panthers have done in every season under Jamie Dixon, they also crash the boards relentlessly.
That Pitt’s offense has been so good, even when they have stretches of offensive silence.
Scoring problems have surfaced in three of the first six league games. The Panthers went scoreless for 7:34 during a stretch in the first half of a win against Providence. In a victory at Georgetown, the Panthers made one basket in the final 12:02. At one point during that 12-minute stretch, they went scoreless for 4:27.
“Just watching film, we’ve had a lot of mental lapses,” senior guard Brad Wanamaker said. “We’ve had some times when we kind of stopped going at the other team. It seemed like we were trying to catch a break on offense and defense sometimes. Maybe some guys were tired, maybe not. But that’s something we have to learn from. We have to learn when we have a good lead to keep building on it.”
Yeah, and you should see the calm, reasoned reactions to these dry spells during game liveblogs. Lots of calm.
Back to numbers, Rush the Court looks at assists and how valuable they are (or are not). Pitt has the second highest assist-to-field goal percentage in the country (part of that whole #1 offense Pomeroy just mentioned) at 69.8%.
So while teams that get lots of assists seem to be doing better on average than teams that get relatively few assists, don’t put too much stock in how well a team assists. Assists are just too squirrelly a statistic to draw much of a conclusion from it.
So, is Pittsburgh good? Of course they are. They are a good team because of their rebounding, their shooting, their defense, and their ball control. I also happen to think that they move the ball well and have players who create shots for each other. I just think that they could be 150th in assists-to-made-field-goals, play about the same way for Jamie Dixon, and still be this good. Assists mean something, but it really isn’t all that clear what.
The article doesn’t come out and say too much — and it gets a little confused trying to figure things out. It really is a bit of a spitballing an idea and trying to hash it out.
Here’s why the assist-to-FG% being high is good for Pitt. It is a motion offense that is intended to work the ball for the best shot.
Pitt can get out in transition, but as a team that doesn’t incorporate forcing turnovers into its defense, there aren’t going to be a lot of fast-break opportunities. Nor are there many spots where one guy will try to just take it from the wing.
The other factor goes back to Pomeroy’s point about Pitt’s offense. They are making a lot of shots. While Pitt is still a power at offensive rebounds by percentage, the vlume of opportunities are fewer as Pitt is shooting so well. This is part of what is driving up Pitt’s assist-to-FG %. More shots going down in the course of running the offense.
Basketball people watch Pitt games and think — at the end of the year, when the shot clock winds down a couple times against major competition, who’s going to get in the lane and either create his own shot or get somebody one?
Those were the moments when Scheyer and Smith were huge for Duke last year. Pitt’s not fortunate enough to have a Scheyer or a Smith and none of us in our right minds want to watch Gibbs or Woodall create in those situations against elite defenders. Much as I like Wanamaker, I’m not sure he can get it done either.
It’s a fair concern. The KenPom stuff is mindless.
try to create his own shot or setup someone else(that would be most likely Wannamaker). At 6’4″ Wanny creates some mismatches in terms of strength for opposing guards and he can get to the hoop and is also an excellent passer.
BigEast play is only a third completed, we’ll know a lot more about this offense and how good it is after maybe 2/3 complete. As we’ve only played a couple of road games. They need to get more minutes out of Moore, Taylor & Zanna as the minutes pile up for some starters.
After his performance vs. Jackson, McGhee will wrestle at UNL
They seem to have their playbook and they pretty much stick to it. I’d say only a few have veered off that course, one is Bobby Knight(go figure) who says what he wants, thank God
What’s funny is, Pitt can be lighting it up and score over 88 points in a game (like the Marguette game) and yet the announcers will tell you something that belies what your seeing in front of your face. This seems to be becoming a trend, whereas what we see is the opposite of what the broadcasters are saying. Damn reality let us tell you what reality is.
Even if this were an issue, we do indeed have the guys to deal with this. As said up thread the guy with the right match-up/opportunity will take the shot, and we have good weapons for almost any scenario.
Anyone listen to the Jaime Dixon show last night — Dixon was sick so Sandle, Knight and Skerry were on. It was great to hear more about and from these guys. I was impressed. Talked about two things i like. The first is just an observational thing – during timeouts Dixon always meets with his assistants first before the team instead of jumping into drawing up a play. I like this. Second thing was they all mentioned that they intend to focus on defense a little more in the coming weeks because while its been good its not been great (according to them). anyway, it was good listen.
however, it isn’t as much fun because one day all of us wild eyed optimists are going to be correct. and that day will make all the disappointments worth it. i don’t know if this is the team, but it does have a lot of the ingredients.
if you think scheyer is miles ahead of wannamaker, then i urge you to take a look at the numbers. oh wait, i forgot that science and statistics are meaningles… all that matters is the eye test.
finally, i do recall mr. woodall playing some clutch basketball a time or two (WVU 3 OTS & Providence)>
Again, I really think Jamie has determined that this (and former) Pitt teams need to be able to score to move forward in the NCAA’s. Defense will suffer a bit but scoring (even with the recent lulls) takes precidence over D. Thus the uptempo offense and running the offense thru the post.
Feel better Jamie…..we need you.
Agree on Wannamaker for a last shot, but happy with Gibbs off a screen. Other teams are scared of these guys….Fine with Gilbert in the mix. Woodall was so clutch against WVU and he’s aggressive and tough and unselfish. Jon Scheyer was unselfish and a long threat.
Steve, I bought St.J’s tix from a online vendor.
TX Panther, spoken like a person that has a lot of class. (Well, maybe not.)
This team has much bigger problems than generating offense for finding someone to create offense out of nothing (which Brad is more than capable of, he’s been getting into the lane at will this year).
I would list my main concerns as solving elite pressure defenses, transition defense and perimeter defense in that order.
I was also born at Mercy and live in a suburb(Lake View in the town of Hamburg) of the city. I think its a great hire. The Bills need some defensive minds as their run defense is as stiff as Charmin. I am also hoping to see the ‘Stache around town.
As far as late game situations, check out Luke Winn’s power rankings from last week. Ashton Gibbs is the best shooter in the country when guarded. That’s what I call clutch and who I’d want taking a shot at the end of the game(see Providence last year and all of the 2nd half daggers he’s had this year. If we run our offense will we get a good shot and that’s all you can really ask for. Given our offensive history, I think that whoever takes it will knock it down.
I hope the Buffalo job works out well, and would love to see him at Pitt, as a fan. He just might be that rare individual that is a big enough man to forgive and forget the pain, in his love for the University.
Just ask him about Ricky Williams ditching the Dolphins.
KenPom isn’t worthless. His rankings are a pretty good predictor of tournament success.
And really Pitt doesn’t have anyone like Scheyer or Smith? Ashton has about the same offensive rating as Scheyer did. And Pitt has 4 players with a better offensive rating than Smith.
Some people are really selling this team short and not giving it nearly enough credit. This Pitt team is really talented. You don’t start off the season this good just because of a system. The offense is really good because the players are really good.
Pomeroy’s #1 Fan Match game today is the OSU/ Illinois game. Looking forward to firing that up.
2. if you scan above, you will see that I can multi-task
BTW, I applaud you for still being active and trying to do good at your age. To me, retirement is a four-letter word.
Do any of you have a personal relationship with him?
Great ambassador my ass. 4 of his players were arrested in the off-season for fighting, men and women, and a hit and run DUI. Harris didn’t have that many issues during his coaching career.
Eastern PA. Surrounded by blue and white zombies.
Guess we’ll ‘watch’ game tracker. ESPN3.com doesn’t work very well on the dinosaur.
As far as the future – Pitt hoops will just get even better with Dixon getting some of the best players in the country coming to Pitt – the next two recruiting classes are STACKED with talent and I can’t wait to see it in action. Additionally, the football team will have a high-octane offense that will be fun to watch. We will end up with a good recruiting class this year considering the recent events, and our coach and his staff shows a spirit and energy to start getting even better talent for next years class. We are finally going to get recruits from all over the country will also keeping some top local talent – sounds like a perfect mix!
So sit back, grab a cold one or 12, watch the hoops game, and realize that the future is looking good for our Panthers. No more Wanny or Haywood talk and focus on the present and future!!!
Hail to Pitt!
“Great ambassador my ass. 4 of his players were arrested in the off-season for fighting,”
Omar, I didn’t realize that Big Ben’s and Michael Vick’s coaches were such lousy ambassador’s of their respective teams. It gives me a new perspective. In the future, every time that I read about a player doing something bad, I will now blame it on his coach.
And one more thing … the graduation rate of Pitt FB players over the past 3 years was outstanding to go along with 27 wins … not bad for an asshole!
and I di this while still watching Pitt BB on ESPN3
wbb- i am glad you are concerned about what teenagers think. they are generally good decision makers….
And as Pitt fans, we should all be concerned about what recruits think; but the fact is that their parents, who of course were also a big part of the decision making process, were every bit as enamored with Wanny as their sons were.
I suggest you restrict your comments to the other Wanny (Wannamker).
