For a round-up of some of the media day, Pitt-centric stories head over to Pitt Script for the link round-up. If I can get back to it, I want to comment on some of the stories.
For now, let’s take a look at the Coaches’ preseason predictions.
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Pts.
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1. Pittsburgh (12)
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222
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2. Villanova (1)
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208
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3. Syracuse (2)
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187
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4. Georgetown
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173
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5. West Virginia
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164
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6. St. John’s (1)
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145
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7. Notre Dame
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123
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8. Louisville
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121
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Marquette
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121
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10. Connecticut
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113
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11. Seton Hall
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104
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12. Cincinnati
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91
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13. USF
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54
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14. Providence
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36
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15. Rutgers
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32
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16. DePaul
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26
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Here are my thoughts on the rankings.
Not surprised that Pitt was picked first in the conference. It could have been ‘Nova just as easily but Pitt finished the season a lot stronger than the Wildcats so there are some lingering questions about them. Not their talent, but how they will play together.
Syracuse has been climbing the perceptions from the end of last season. Credit Jim Boeheim for hyping Kris Joseph as their next big breakout guy. Along with the amusingly named Fab Melo as a likely one-and-done freshman star.
Georgetown could be be very good or they could be as inconsistent and unpredictable as last year.
Last year I think I saw a factoid that Bob Huggins teams have never finished worse than 5th in conference play. The coaches seemed to have bought that, as the Hoopies are pegged there despite the loss of excellent players and questions with the returning drunk PG Mazzula and others. For the record, 5th or 4th is about where I expect WVU to finish, so I actually don’t disagree with #1-5.
Honestly I think spots 6 to 13 are complete toss-ups. Some teams are more likely than others to finish higher in the overall order, but the margins will be so slim. A little luck, a bad bounce, injuries. Those will be the differences.
St. John’s is something of a surprise at #6. If you are wondering about who could have voted them #1, that would be Rick Pitino. Slick Rick said he did that back in the summer, and he meant it. Probably as much to try and put extra pressure on Steve Lavin with expectations. Bit of a mind game, dick move, but that is Pitino for you.
The Red Storm has a lot — I mean a lot — of seniors on the roster. And really not bad talent. Just that Norm Roberts did his best to waste it. I think a lot of the coaches see that — and had to coach against it. That’s why they are up so high. It’s possible.
Notre Dame, Louisville and Marquette are in a virtual tie at nos. 7-9 (with ‘Ville and Marquette actually tied). I would reverse the order, but otherwise that seems about right. Maybe I would put Marquette 6th and St. John’s 7th. They have talent, but big gaps and questions. Toss darts to determine these spots.
At tenth and to some a surprise is UConn. I have no problem with them there, even as I expect they will finish a little better. Majok never happened and is gone. There’s going to be a lot of reliance on guys to suddenly make a leap in play and leadership. Plus the freshmen are going to have to contribute quickly. Some misses in the last few years in recruiting plus the forced roster turnover/impatience by Calhoun with some players’ development appears to be taking a toll.
Rumors were flying yesterday that Herb Pope was bolting for Turkey. I’m not making that up. Really that about sums things up with the Pirates. There are some very good players who will make a living overseas on the roster, but they are such head cases you don’t know what will happen with Seton Hall. I guess we will find out if Willard 2.0 can handle loony talent better than his father could. /not bitter
Someone has to start bringing up the rear so they can be a surprise team. Cinci leads the way at #12. They could very well finish as high as 8th, but I put them in the group with UConn and Seton Hall. That’s another jumbled area.
You know, USF might not be that bad. Stan Heath failed at Arkansas, but he does know how to coach and find some good talent. He really is in the right place for him. He’s not a high end job kind of coach, but the guy that will put together a solid program in time.
Providence managed to be picked just ahead of Rutgers. Maybe it is some bias towards Mike Rice, but I would at least switch that around. Providence — somehow — seems like more of a mess than Rutgers. Plus Rutgers will play defense. Providence has yet to prove that it even knows what that concept is.
DePaul is dead last. Oliver Purnell is making some serious retirement cash.
Here’s a common theme I have been hearing since Ashton received honors for 1st Team ABE….
How will Ashton deal with being the “man”???
I’m not worried at all about this…
First of all, by the 10th game of the season, Ashton was keyed on by opposing teams quite heavily, so he knows what to anticipate. He had his off nights, but I think he is fully aware of the focus he will garner. Will he distribute more, focus on rebounding and defense, or will other players step up to help on the offensive side? Not sure, probably a combination of all three.
If anything, I would question how Wannamaker “the stat machine” will adjust to the role of being the 2 guard and lock down defender? Will he focus on offense? Will he focus on the LDD role? Will he do well in this role.
I have been pretty hard on Wannamaker over the years. To me, he has been his turnover problem and his reckless styler that can be very frustrating; however, I cannot deny his ability to pile on stats and make some clutch shots in recent years. Hopefully, Wanny will get some love nationally if he continues to improve and eliminate those WTF moments.
okay….time to hypothesize…
Here’s my Starting 5 and subs (taking into account, multiple positions and lineups could dictate changes in first sub)
PG Gibbs (Woodall, Epps)
SG Wannamaker (Gibbs, Epps, Wright)
SF Brown (Wannamaker, Robinson, Patterson, Moore)
PF Robinson (Brown, Richardson)
C McGhee (Taylor, Zanna)
It seems to me that everybody is penciling Brad in for numbers similar to last year and few people are considering the possibility of him improving. I think Brad is going to really surprise those who haven’t been paying close enough attention this year.
I would imagine that Brad and Travon will remain the primary creators for this team. Brad will have TOs. It’s unavoidable with what the team asks him to do, but if he can get that assist number up slightly than he will have had a fantastic career at Pitt.
Fans should also realize that Brad is only 21 years old. He is 3 months younger than red-shirt sophmore, Travon Woodall and junior Nasir Robinson. He is only 6 months older than Dante Taylor and Ashton Gibbs. The kid still has a higher ceiling than most people realize.
Here are some thoughts on each starter:
Gibbs- I can’t recall a single moment last year when I thought “No Ashton, don’t do that!” or “Ashton, that’s the wrong play!”. He’s really one of the most self-aware, heady players I’ve ever seen. For an absolute assassin, he’s not a gunner. And he’s certainly not someone who tries to play beyond his own athletic ability. While he lacks let’s say, Kemba Walker’s, speed and athleticism, he makes up for it by playing the hand dealt to him and never getting out of control. I’ve grown into the idea of him as scoring point guard. He’s Pitt’s best pure shooter since Jason Matthews. Probably better too.
Wannamaker- Agreed- he’s the best overall player on the team- a jack of all trades and one of the most physical guards in the country. Interested to see him take on a more significant leadership role. In terms of leading by example- i.e. manning up on D, rolling on the floor for loose balls, taking it strong to the rack, he does all the things that don’t appear in the stat book.
Brown- Gilbert basically rolled in straight from the Squirrel Hill JCC to the Big East last year. He shot 50% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. If he can approach these same numbers playing a full season, he’ll be 1st or 2nd leading scorer and will probably have played himself into the 2nd round of the NBA draft. However, those are tough numbers to keep up over an entire season. This time he will be starting and playing the 3. Last year, he was basically Nasir Robinson’s sub at the 4. Only a few times did they both play on the floor together. When Gilbert was in, he pretty much seemed to float around to the wings anyway. So now he can do it and leave Robby at the high post to take up space and distribute. It’s usually a dream to have a quick and strong 6’6” small forward. So if Gilbert can play well, he should be getting close to 30 minutes per game. If he’s not getting this much, than he’s doing something wrong and not living up to his potential.
Robinson- Undersized, under-athletic(?) and yet he was our starting power forward on a team that won 25 games. I like that he’s a great interior passer and likes to bang around. Hopefully he’s trimmed up a bit to improve his jumping for tip-ins and finishing around the basket. Adding a 15’ jumper would make him even better, but that might be asking for too much.
McGhee- Saw some fleeting glimpses of a turnaround jump hook late last year. Looking forward to see how his time spent at the big man camp has affected his offensive game. Like everyone, I was impressed with his defense, but I thought there were times when he got caught on breakdowns and his help defense looked poor. This might not have been his fault. But any incremental improvements in his offensive game can have exponential affects for the team.
Omar: As a late birth myself, (November & constantly the youngest person in my class) THANK YOU for bringing up Wannamaker’s age. There are sophomores & juniors older than him in D1. His development is not yet set: remember, he was the biggest shot maker in the games I considered lost, Louisville & Wvu
The guys had an interesting opportunity to go Ireland this summer & bond. Considering last season, with its injuries & academic consistencies, I think the biggest aspect of this team, before they’ve played a game, is the togetherness aspect. Remember the summer of 2008, when we were all thrilled that they established the summe4 league??
A lot of positives, for sure, but question marks as well. Gary McGhee needs to continue to improve, Taylor needs to improve a lot, Zanna has to contribute, and I still think we need a reliable point guard. To take nothing away from Gibbs – but he has been to this point a perimeter player, and not a creator, though, and Woodall is creative, but turnover prone. I felt that Jermaine Dixon was a real key last year – when he reinjured his foot, the team was just not as good, and he never really recovered. Moore and Epps, while promising certainly, are unproven.
Also, the non-con schedule this year is very tough, and several traditional also rans in the BE will be better this year – major coaching upgrades in a few programs. And the top tier teams are very, very good, better than last season, in my view. I just think that WVU is being badly overlooked, Georgetown and Villanova look really tough, no one is even talking about Louisville.
On the other hand, this team has the potential to be a lot deeper than any Pitt team in the Howland/Dixon era. And if we do get that improvement, and contribution from freshmen (red shirt and not), with JD and his staff, there is no reason this team cannot make a serious run at the final four.
Just great to be dealing with these kinds of questions, instead of the one big mustachioed question mark that continually hangs over the football program. Really excited for the season to start.
That said, there’s a small tiny part of me worried about this season– I just keep thinking back to all the games we pulled out of virtually nowhere last year: Louisville, WVU, Providence, among a few others… any worries that things even out a bit this year?
great breakdown of the seasoned vets. remember guys, there are a couple guys we haven’t even seen yet (moore and epps). this team might be special. this isn’t football. i think jamie dixon is getting it. play for march.
Also a great point about Brad looking to score. He is better at just trying to make a play. Score or pass. When he has the ball at the end of the shot clock and has to go one-on-one turnovers happen. That is very true, but not exclusive to Brad. But who else is going to be able to do something with the ball one-on-one in that situation? It’s either Brad or Tray
I honestly think Pitt is ranked a little too high actually. Ashton Gibbs is first time Big East, but no other Panther in on any other preseason squad. I think that speaks to something, but not bad basketball. Last year was excellent, but how many times did we come back? Our “best” win was Syracuse, and it was the only big win we dominated throughout. The lack of star power on this team is apparent. Star power is the wrong term, its more “game changer”. The best example -the loss to Xavier. Jamal Crawford killed us, repeatedly, and we clawed back, but had no true answer on our end. The two players who can serve this role are Gibbs and Brown. Gibbs can hit big shots and Brown can take one step into the paint and slam it home.
Then again, who is better? I look at the BE and see only a couple teams that can challenge. Nova has talent but I think Wright’s system can kill him against size and bad shooting. Georgetown is another school with good players and a unfavorable system. Cuse will be right there with us and has a chance to make some noise vs Mich St at the Jimmy V. I really think its West Virgina who we have to look out for. They lost a lot, but they’ve been sneakingly good at recruiting since Huggins has got in and have guys waiting. They’re bigger this year, and have a couple dangerous athletes. The rest is muddled, but someone always surprises. I feel like the league needs to knock off four teams.
This year has sooo many talking points. I mean I didn’t even get into Gil Brown, Dante Taylor, Lamar Patterson, J.J. Moore, the teams depth, etc etc. I’ll see you guys at the scrimmage!
Last year we were the underdogs, this year favorites. As a Pitt fan you can never be over confident, because something almost always goes wrong. But with Jamie and the depth of this team it is impossible not to look forward to great things.
Looking forward to another outstanding basketball season and even more outstanding conversations. I’m sure we won’t win every game and the players won’t always perform to our expectations, but in the end, I think we’ll all be happy with the product Jamie puts on the floor.
While I am very bullish on this team, I am not happy about the pre-season ranking. Top Five, WOW! No room for upside. Kind of like a tech stock in 1999. All of the possible growth was already factored in.
Regardless, they will be fun to watch this year.
I am worried about Nova, Syracuse and WVU. Nova has a ton of returning talent. I actually think that losing Reynolds could be a positive (google Bill Simmons Patrick Ewing Theory). He dominated the ball and looked for his own shot most of the time. I expect the young guys to flourish with more opportunities. And much like Pitt, you have to pick your poison. Someone different could step up on any given night.
See you at the game! Why don’t all you guys wear your nicknames on your shirts so we’ll know who you are?
However, his bigger problem is going to be opportunity. Right now, all indications are that Jamie is going to play him exclusively at center. And since Gary is playing so well, has added some new post moves, plays outstanding defense and rarely gets in foul trouble, Dante’s minutes will be somewhat limited to maybe 10-15 per game. Hard to get too many double doubles with that kind of PT.
He probably won’t get much time, if any, at PF. Talib Zanna has really made great strides. He looked great playing with Gary last night on the blue squad. Look for him to have a big impact this year.
Next year we’ll need Dante to wrack up double doubles. This year, we need him to improve, be a reliable back up to Gary and contribute when called upon. But certainly, he won’t the reason we make (or don’t) the elite 8 or final 4.
Anyone else excited for FanFest tomorrow?