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March 8, 2010

Figuring Out Gilbert

Filed under: Basketball,Players — Chas @ 10:23 am

There are mysteries that remain. Such as why Gilbert Brown is literally up-and-down from one game to the next.

There might not be another player in the country that has been as inconsistent as Brown this season. His scoring has fluctuated like the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Since returning from an academic suspension that had him miss the first 11 games of the season, Brown has been Pitt’s leading scorer five times. He also has been held scoreless three times.

Some players get hot for stretches and then go cold for a period. What makes Brown’s inconsistency so strange is that you can set your watch by him. He plays well every other game.

It has gone on like that all season. Most recently, Brown was shut out by Providence Thursday night. So, of course, in the regular-season finale against Rutgers, he scored a team-high 19 points.

“I don’t know what it is,” Brown said. “I’ve been trying to figure it out. I swear it’s coincidence, but it’s not. It’s not pressure, me thinking about it, ‘OK I had a good game now I have to put another one together.’ It just happens. We have other players step up and play so well. Like against Providence, Brad [Wanamaker] and Ashton [Gibbs] put the bookbag on and carried the whole team on their backs. [Saturday night against Rutgers] was a different night when everyone got involved.”

With only 5 losses since Brown has come back, it is hard to truly say that how Brown goes, Pitt goes. In two losses (at USF and Georgetown) Brown was the leading scorer. In three losses (at Seton Hall, at WVU, and at Notre Dame) he scored a total of 10 points — including scoreless at WVU.

Don’t jump to the conclusion quite yet about the road being the difference. If you look at Brown’s numbers since he got back — 20 games — it is inconclusive. Using scoring and shooting percentage as the base metrics it is very bland.

I counted 6 good games at home, 4 bad games at home. On the road it was an even split of 4 good and 4 bad games. Two additional games — DePaul and at Syracuse were neither good or bad. Just there.

I wish I had a good answer. Is it simply psychological? I doubt it. It doesn’t appear to be match-up based since he against the three teams Pitt has played twice — WVU, St. John’s and Seton Hall — he has had good and bad games against each.

Anyone with a good theory that could actually be tested, broken down or analyzed?





Posted my “best guess” after the Providence game.

Agree that it’s psychological. My theory is that he only shows up – focused, angry, hungry, whatever – after a bad game. Then he has a good game and relaxes again leading to another bad game. He’s done it so often this year that it’s become a habit or a mental block.

I saw Young live early in his Freshman year and thought “this guy’s going to be something if he stays long enough.” Thought the same about Brown when I saw him his Freshman year. I love his game when he’s on. It kills me when he’s not.

Comment by TampaT 03.08.10 @ 10:31 am

it’ll take him a while to realize it’s his time to be the man. he’s going thru that process now.

Comment by johnnyrocket 03.08.10 @ 10:34 am

Maybe he is getting over the “Miss Me” syndrome!!

Comment by George Busch Jr 03.08.10 @ 10:57 am

could it be game plan….Coach would alter his game plan the second time around he would play an opponent….??? could it be what coach is trying to do if one, two, other players seem to be productive…..so many of pitt’s possesions are dictated by the bench, a set and what player should take the shot….i know it does not work out like that, but just another idea????? i think he is motivated everytime he touches the hardwood, maybe just a nuiance of the year….

Comment by DRGAGS 03.08.10 @ 11:22 am

Changing the subject a bit…since almost everyone is giving Coach Dixon accolades for the job he has done this season, I found this article about Bobby Gonzalez particularly interesting:

link to nytimes.com

(Full disclosure – I found the link at ESPN)

Not a pretty picture at all.

If I remember correctly, Pitt was being pushed pretty hard by Sonny Vaccaro to hire Gonzalez after Howland left, and Pitt’s resistance led to a breakdown between the school and Vaccaro. My memory is that Vaccaro was a driving force behind Ben Howland (and by extension, Jamie Dixon) coming to Pitt.

Comment by Pantherman13 03.08.10 @ 11:54 am

One other possiblity that just came to me. It would require someone who has DVR’d every game Brown played in this year to verify.

It depends on whether or not he hits his first shot of the game. If he does, he relaxes and plays well. If he doesn’t he tightens up and gets tentative.

Went back and looked at RU replay on ESPN360. He got hacked on his first attempt and swished the FT. Also, recall him hitting 3s at least twice this year as soon as he came in, and then playing well afterward. Mark Adams, the RU game commentator, even mention that if Brown hits early shots he plays well.

It would be purely coincidental that he hits the opening shot every other game, so I still like my original theory.

Comment by TampaT 03.08.10 @ 11:56 am

I still chalk up his inconsistency to lack of minutes (in practice and games) from the suspension. I’ll go one further and say confidence.

FWIW, when JD runs the set play for GB where he curls the bigs and receives the pass in the corner…and GB can hit the 3 or pump fake and drive to the hoop for a jam… when GB nails the 3 or jam on this play, he is money the rest of the game. When he clanks the three or gets tied up, he tends to strugle. Very unscientific, I know. To me, that’s confidence.

Comment by Pauly P 03.08.10 @ 1:48 pm

Gil doesn’t have many “moves”. he’s just not a polished offensive player yet. color guy on rutgers game mentioned how he should’ve come to a jump stop on one illconceived drive to the hoop. he’s got a decent first step and takes it to the hole w/ authority but if he doesn’t beat his defender w/ his first move, he’s kinda done. sam young was much more polished last year, hitting fade aways, pull up jumpers. w/ gil, it’s either a monster dunk, foul and trip to the line or nothing.

Comment by wilk 03.08.10 @ 2:23 pm

wilk – interesting comment.. and I agree…

gil uses his first step and makes up his mind he is going all the way to the hoop. Definitely not a bad thing.. and I wish he would do it more. Also he never works around to beat a defender after his first step jab doesn’t work. Throw in some crossover action.. multiple pump fakes.

If he doesn’t go to the hole, he simply takes a three pointer, usually from the corner.

Earlier he would take shots from the middle of the zone, which he doesn’t do much often., If he keeps the mid range game up… he could be much more dangerous then he already is.

Comment by Snala the Panther 03.08.10 @ 2:50 pm

I agree, Snala..the mid range game could improve but that is mainly shot selection, set plays and or defensive schemes. The plays (mainly one play) where he curls for the corner is one that I see the most, and seems to provide the most success and is usually against man on man. Maybe the mid range game can appear in games versus zone teams? I still think his skills are yet to be untapped on both the offensive and defensive side, and I attibute that to minutes. The kid needs to be out on the court. Rmemeber, Sam Young struggled with his offensive game until he finally got the minutes needed in his Junior or Senior year. A hot GB is a matchup nightmare for opposing coaches, IMHO.

Comment by Pauly P 03.08.10 @ 3:13 pm

wilk and Snala:

See the point about adding more polish to his game. He’s certainly not Sam yet. I do think the pull up is a part of his repertoire, but he doesn’t use it often enough. However, how does that explain the one-game-on next-game-off trend?

Pauly’s comment is more along the line of one of my two theories – it’s how he starts the game that triggers it. And, he could be right that the lack of playing time has played with his confidence, although within Chas’ post Brown says it’s not that.

Comment by TampaT 03.08.10 @ 3:24 pm

Another thing I’ve noticed with Brown, particularly on his jump shots, is that his release can be very inconsistent. Sam Young had an awkward looking shot, but the more he worked on it, the more it looked the same almost every time. He really didn’t become a consistently good shooter until his senior year. Maybe Gilbert can make that same type of improvement with offseason work (remember, he did not get to work out with the team at all last summer and fall).

Dan 72 is our resident shooting coach – I’d be curious on his take.

Comment by Pantherman13 03.08.10 @ 5:48 pm

Hi to all….

G. Brown is easily the most gifted player on Pitt’s team if he realizes it. He has the ability to take over the game sorta like how Sam did his final two years once he realized the only person who could stop him was himself!

I think that not knowing when he going to get in the game may also be a hinderance to his growth.
Some games he get in at the first Tv timeout other times if Nasir is playing well he may not get in the game til the 12:00 min mark…not saying this is an excuse but after being so pumped up before the game and have to sit on the bench for so long may take alot out of him…

Comment by jeremey 03.08.10 @ 6:04 pm

Gil Brown is the best player on the team both statistically and talent wise and is “inconsistent” because his minutes get jerked around. If he starts slow he may only get 20 mins a game. It’s Sam Young all over again.

Comment by J-Maile 03.09.10 @ 12:10 am

Wilk was headed the right direction……. and then we lost the thread.

There are some skill shortcomings in Gilbert’s offensive game. He has good athletic ability in terms of first step and leaping ability but none of the basketball coordination skills that sometimes come with those athletic gifts…….no dribble drive moves (wiggle, crossover), no ability to adjust in the air and still shoot a soft shot, no ability to fade, no ability to be moving forward and then pull up……….plus his release is unreliable and slower than Byron Leftwich’s. (the release should have been worked over by the coaches a couple yrs back).

He’s an athletic player with some important offensive limitations. Those limitations are especially visible when you see him play pickup or summer games; he’s just not coordinated enough to be a complete offensive player and take over games.

I’m pretty happy with what he gives Pitt now. Points off the bench…….sometimes in bunches and good defense and the ability to run the court.

Comment by hugh green 03.09.10 @ 9:44 am

Hugh: Excellent breakdown of Brown’s offensive limitations, and I don’t disagree.

However, I’ll ask the same question I asked Wilk: How does that explain Brown’s one game on, next-game-off phenomenon this year? That’s the question Chas asked to start this thread.

“What makes Brown’s inconsistency so strange is that you can set your watch by him. He plays well every other game.”

I posted two theories, but both have flaws. Is is simply as Brown states, “coincidence”?

Comment by TampaT 03.10.10 @ 12:48 am

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