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November 5, 2009

I expected Pitt to be ranked in the preseason somewhere in the 7-11 range. There’s just such a bunching in the Big East in the middle. After the projected top-2 teams of Villanova and WVU, you really can make a case for (but mainly against) the next 8 or 9 teams in what order.

Nine seems to be the popular place to put Pitt. The rationale is a common one and it makes sense.

Jamie Dixon has never won fewer than 20 games, never missed the NCAA tournament in six years as a head coach. But this should be his most challenging season considering Sam Young (19.2 ppg), DeJuan Blair (15.7 ppg), Levance Fields (10.7 ppg and 7.5 apg) and Tyrell Biggs (6.4 ppg) are no longer around to dominate the Big East. Meantime, Jermaine Dixon is recovering from foot surgery. So, at the moment, the Panthers are without all five starters from last season’s 31-win team, and even the greatness of freshman Dante Taylor — the McDonald’s All-American scored 27 points in Pitt’s first exhibition — won’t be enough to ensure a smooth transition.

I get it, but I have to admit. Seeing Pitt anywhere lower than 9 is bothersome. Coach Jamie Dixon is seeing this as good motivation.

Dixon knows what’s being said, and he’s pushing it right back at his players. The stars may be gone, but Dixon is certain this team has depth, developing players and a mindset for playing defense.

“This team can be as good as any team we’ve had,” Dixon said. “I know what everyone’s writing, because you look at it on paper. But we play games on the court. Where we are now isn’t where we’re going to be. That is our belief and our driving motivation.”

He’s been on record as expecting this team to overachieve — at least based on what is being predicted. Why are teams like ND and Syracuse getting pushed ahead of Pitt despite achieving less recently and losing almost as much? Well, ND has a likely All-American in Harangody so talent always gets a little more love. As for Syracuse, well most of that is the love always given to Boeheim in the media and more willing to buy his sales pitch about his team.

Jermaine Dixon is right there with the underdog/disrespect perspective.

“Everyone can’t be picked high,” Jermaine Dixon said. “When you lose four starters and 60 percent of your points, they are going to pick us low.”

“But Pittsburgh has always been the underdog,” he added.

When Dixon gets healthy, I expect a lot from him this season. He seems especially motivated and he is still stung by the way Pitt lost and his role in it.

Big brother Juan of the Washington Wizards was calling to offer his condolences after Villanova beat Pitt to advance to the Final Four.

“He told me, ‘don’t worry about it, it was a good game, you guys fought, you played well, don’t let it get you down,'” Dixon recalled. “Then he told me, ‘You know you messed up.'”

Jermaine, of course, did not need to be reminded. He had just lived through one of the most excruciating experiences that a college athlete could endure. Dixon made not one, but two, critical mistakes that turned the game in Villanova’s favor.

I like that he doesn’t shy away from his mistakes. Instead trying to improve from that spot. Not obsess and go grim over it, or simply laugh it off. It’s there and he knows it.

Over at FanHouse, Pitt was picked 10th. Disclaimer time. I still write there, but I had no input on this one. Where Brett McMurphy says “FanHouse predicted order of finish” as far as I know, he means himself.

SBNation’s Blogging the Bracket has Pitt all the way down at 11th. You will pardon my having trouble taking seriously any predictions that has Syracuse tabbed for 4th.

Here’s roughly how I see the Big East regular season shaking out if I have to actually put them in a set order:

  1. Villanova
  2. West Virginia
  3. Georgetown
  4. Louisville
  5. UConn
  6. Cinci
  7. Pitt
  8. Syracuse
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Seton Hall
  11. Providence
  12. St. John’s
  13. Marquette
  14. USF
  15. Rutgers
  16. DePaul

Again, from about 3-8 it could be totally jumbled. Same with 7-11 and 9-13.Yes, the overlaps were on purpose, because I think there’s a reasonable ceiling on a lot of the teams.

Villanova and WVU have the best talent and experience mix in the Big East. I almost want to put WVU on top, but, well…

I think G-town will bounce back nicely. Again lots of talent. They collapsed in the second half, but Thompson III did not become a bad coach with one bad season.

Louisville still has Samuels and some good complimentary players coming back. Plus the usual Pitino recruiting haul. Expect early struggles and mistakes and a stronger team finishing the season.

UConn has been pegged for 2-4 in most predictions. I’m shading lower because I really wonder about the eligibility of several expected key players and what that will or could do to chemistry and depth. I refuse to also buy into Stanley Robinson moving past his enigma status as the puff pieces are writing. They do have an outstanding, experienced PG in Kemba Walker so that is a strong point in their favor.

Cinci actually looked potentially good last year, but were ravaged by injuries. Assuming some modicum of health and with or without Lance Stephenson, they should be a very good team. Mick Cronin’s very appearance can be annoying but I think he’s a pretty good coach.

I’m of course a bit biased with Pitt, but I believe Coach Dixon will have this team overachieve a bit. It won’t be pretty at times. It could be as offensively challenged/inconsistent a group since the 2003 and 2004 group, but I expect a stronger defense.

Syracuse has done well enough in the Big East Tournament, but their regular season has been completely inconsistent. Don’t pretend Triche and Jardine will be able to handle point as well as Flynn. Chemistry might be better this year, but I’m not sold on a team leader with this group.

Notre Dame has Harangody. They have a couple nice transfers that probably will add some needed inside toughness like Ben Hansbrough. They will, however lack any consistent shooters. That’s why some see them as high as 6th I suppose. Plus, everyone likes Mike Brey and his mock turtlenecks. I’m less convinced, and this is where they fall.

Seton Hall is the darling darkhorse with the potential talent from the transfers. They also have a coach that will either get a lot out of them, or potentially get into a slapfight on the sidelines with his own players. They will be entertaining, and yes they could well contend in the upper-half. Or implode.

Providence tends to get lost. Keno Davis has lost a good amount of talent, but he is a better coach than most people credit or realize. The team will look bad early, but get better deeper into the season.

Forget the rest.





I predict we will finish no lower than 6th in the BE and will make the NCAA’s. The team will make slow but steady progress as the season goes on. Talent + Coaching = Success.

Comment by HbgFrank 11.05.09 @ 1:46 pm

I’m bullish too, HbgFrank. Mainly for the same reasons you mentioned…and… the fact that many of the pundits (and us as fans) seem to discredit or not value the experience the non-starters have that will translate to better performance and guidance for our newcomers. Guys like Wannamaker, Gibbs, Robinson, Gil&JDix when available, and even the much-mailigned Gary McGhee have played in big games…most have made big shots or at the very least “held fort” for long stretches of time on the court versus big time competition.

My prediction is people will be writing about Wannamaker by mid season as a bigtime player…

I think we just need to expect a few more WTF moments than we are used to seeing…but, far fewer as the season moves on.

Comment by Pauly P 11.05.09 @ 2:46 pm

I have been reading your blog for a long time but never commented. I actually like St. John’s to finish in the top half. They get back Anthony Mason, Jr. to go with an experienced group of guys…they have six returning players who averaged .350 or better in points per minute the last time they played. They lose no one, bring in a decent JUCO transfer, and also have a reasonably decent-looking freshman class.

I have Pitt ninth too, but do have Notre Dame and Seton Hall behind us. I think our ceiling is around sixth, and the absolute basement is eleventh. I say that only because there are 10 other quality teams so a perfect storm of problems could put us that low.

Comment by Ben 11.05.09 @ 4:51 pm

I have trouble believing in St. John’s because they really seem like a program and their coach that can’t catch a break. Norm Roberts has done the job of cleaning up the program.

At the same time, he hasn’t gone beyond. I realize it was a complete mess and a wreck, but he has also contributed with some incredible churn with players coming and going — well after the Jarvis stuff. Transfers, players abruptly quitting. Beyond the incredible bad luck of injuries, there just seems to be a tension on that team suggesting something that is a real problem with the coach.

Comment by Chas 11.05.09 @ 5:43 pm

I understand the sentiment about Pitt always being undervalued in the pre-season, and it has been true. However, I don’t remember a time in the Howland-Dixon era when there were this much inexperience, but more importantly, so young. Specifically, except for McGhee, we have no real experience in the 4 or 5 positions with all freshman competig for the positions. And we are pretty young at the point … Adams has expereince but no in the BE or with the players he playing with.

I certainly hope I’m wrong, but I do see us a bubble team sweating out early March … and a 9th place seems about right to me.

Comment by wbb 11.05.09 @ 5:16 pm

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