First this:

Naturally, when Blair started slipping, some Pitt fans ripped his decision to leave school early. Why? Because that’s what fans do. They love you when you play for their favorite team. But if you ever leave early they mock you if the decision doesn’t go as planned.

Happens every year.

It happened this year.

I changed two words in that passage. Instead of “Blair” and “Pitt,” it really reads “Brown” as in Derrick Brown and “Xavier.”

(Derrick Brown was another potential 1st round guy who slipped to #40. His old teammate Stanley Burrell was backing him on Twitter and getting pissed at the negativity. He also got off a mad rant on Sean Miller. Well worth reading the whole post from Gary Parrish.)

Back to DeJuan Blair. It isn’t just some Pitt fans talking about how Blair made a big mistake going pro and as the Liveblog last night brought up the specter of Chris Taft.

In the history of mock draft mockery, Pittsburgh C DeJuan Blair will join former Panther Chris Taft and former N.C. State F Josh Powell on an ignominious list. All three were convinced by Internet speculation that they would be NBA lottery picks. Taft dropped deep into the second round in 2005. Powell wasn’t even picked in 2003. As of Thursday afternoon, NBADraft.net had Blair going No. 13 overall to the Pacers. He went in the second round, at No. 37 to San Antonio. Remember this declaration from Blair at the press conference when he announced for the draft? “I’m an Internet freak and I go on all the draft boards, and nobody’s got me going second round. That’s almost guaranteed to me.” Whom does Blair see to get his money back?

That seems to be the source of a lot of the second-guessing of Blair. His declaration of relying on the mocks. No question, that haunts him in terms of a quote being thrown back in his face.

When you view the mocks in terms of buzz and a player’s status — which is really the way to treat them it is different. Most other mocks have had him slipping and moving for the last couple weeks. While none had him falling out of the 1st round, he was definitely not a lock in the teens.

All because of his knees.

The burly Pitt star was viewed as a lottery pick until teams got wind of his medical exam. Blair underwent ACL surgery on both knees in high school, and many teams said his long-term prognosis was not good.

Though he went undrafted in the first round, his landing site could not have worked out better for Blair. He’ll join the Spurs and help them as a rookie while playing limited minutes, which should set him up for a contract in three years.

Many executives in the league didn’t like seeing Blair fall this far, but there was little they could do to stop it. Most team doctors red-flagged him, which prevented the GMs from taking Blair in the first round.

“This is the worst I’ve ever seen as far as doctors unwilling to put their butts on the line,” said a senior executive of an Eastern conference team. “If there’s any kind of gray area, they’re going to flunk the player.”

Because of the sophisticated testing of MRIs and other high-tech devices, team doctors “know things they never used to know,” the executive went on. “They never used to flunk players, and now they flunk them all the time. And a lot of the time it’s to cover their [butts].”

Unlike Chris Taft, which because he was a Pitt guy and has admitted that he watched the mocks today Blair is being compared, Blair did not start falling in the mocks immediately after leaving Pitt.

No revisionism. Taft started sliding when he showed up to workouts and bombed. When his conditioning stunk. When he was acting like he was already getting paid. By draft night he had already fallen from any top-10. For Pitt fans and some scouts, he started sliding before the season ended and he was clearly not giving a full effort. He was still expected to be in the first round, and his deep slide was surprising, but his stock had been falling because of his performance in workouts and attitude — not medical reasons.

Blair killed in the workouts. He aced interviews. He was rising on the draftboards. Teams picking in the 8-12 range were bringing him in for one-on-one interviews. Then came the medical reports on his knees.

Damage control was run, but if team doctors ultimately wouldn’t sign off on the pick, then no team was going to risk a guaranteed contract. It also means that his coming back to Pitt for another year would have made no difference. The knee issues would still be waiting next year or even if he stayed all four years.

The Spurs had him fall into their lap with their first pick in the draft. They were the worst rebounding team in the NBA last year. They pick up the best rebounder in the college game in over a decade. Now, everyone lauds them for this.

Are you kidding me? How do these guys fall into San Antonio’s lap? Tony Parker at 29? Ginobili late in the second? Now Blair here? This is a great pick for the Spurs. He might be able to start in San Antonio if Duncan plays the 5. This late in the draft, his knee issues aren’t much of a risk; he’s just a really cheap rebounder. The Spurs are getting an A+ tonight.

Stat guys.

I don’t understand how a player projected to be a top-15 talent can slide all the way to 37th based on reports about his knees. Here’s why: At some point, the injury risk is a “so what.” As in, “so what if he can only play for three years, he’s so much better than the average 25th pick in the draft that he’d still be worth it.”

This a player who absolutely destroyed the second pick in the draft when they went head-to-head. His rebounding numbers are something out of a video game — I’m not sure NBA personnel people have put together quite how dominant Blair was on the glass in college, but he had a better rebound rate than Blake Griffin. His offensive rebound rate of 20.5 was double that of most other big man prospects — the next closest prospect was Santa Clara’s John Bryant at 14.4.

But Blair has bad knees, and someday they might catch up to him. In the meantime, the Spurs got a lottery talent for a second-round salary while the rest of the league was drafting Sam Youngs and Taj Gibsons.

And the Spurs are a team that has depth and knows what they are doing.

The Spurs’ selection of Blair was an ingenious move. Even though Dixon was upset over Blair’s precipitous drop, landing in San Antonio is a great fit. He will play immediately, and the Spurs are the right team to go to for managing a potential injury.

Buford said his team has the ideal coach to handle the lengthy season and massage minutes for players (see how Gregg Popovich has managed Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan in recent seasons).

Blair should compete for starter’s minutes. The situation couldn’t have worked out any better for him, even though it appeared dire at one point. Not getting guaranteed money as a first-round pick will make it that much more difficult for Blair. However, he has dealt with obstacles before, and the Spurs clearly want to make this work.

From a Pitt fan, this sucks and sucks for DeJuan Blair in terms of a guaranteed contract. It doesn’t suck where he went. Viewing the narrative from the drafting team standpoint, there is nothing but acclaim.

As I’ve said before with regards to Young and Blair in the draft, the idiocy of teams — at least from picks 14 and on is drafting a player for his potential down the road. Odds are, he won’t develop within the 2-3 years for that team to benefit. Take a look at the first round going back to 2001.

Here are the players taken from #14 or lower that have had an impact with the team that immediately got their rights.

2008 — Courtney Lee, Orlando, #22 (and just traded)

2007 — Rodney Stuckey, Detroit, #15; Aaron Brooks, Houston, #26

2006 — Rajon Rondo, Phoenix to Boston, #21

2005 — Danny Granger, Indiana, #17; Nate Robinson, Phoenix to NY, #21; Jason Maxiell, Detroit, #26; David Lee, NY, #30

2004 — Josh Smith, Atlanta, #17; Jameer Nelson, Denver to Orlando, #20; Kevin Martin, Sacramento, #26

2003 — Leo Barbosa, San Antonio to Phoenix, #28; Josh Howard, Dallas, #29

2002 — Tayshaun Prince, Detroit, #23

2001 — Zach Randolph, Portland, #19; Brendan Haywood, Cleveland to Washington, #20; Sam Dalembert, Philly, #26; Jamaal Tinsley, Memphis to Indiana, #27; Tony Parker, San Antonio, #28

Now obviously the jury is still out for the rest of the 2007 and 2008 classes, but I think the picture is rather clear. Most years, a draft is lucky to produce more than 2 players that develop quickly enough to have an impact with the team that drafted them.