[Original version posted to the Diaries of College Basketball.]

I don’t believe in luck. Not really. I think of myself as a fairly rational person. Then sports get involved and it all seems to go out the window.

I am still blaming myself for Pitt losing to Villanova last week. Why? Because I didn’t sit in the right chair in the living room and I didn’t have a beer. Technically I should blame my daughter for both. She was sitting in the chair, and since it was early in the afternoon on a weekday with me wathcing her while the wife was at work I couldn’t have a beer (and I promised Children and Family Services that I would stop doing that). Still, it seems wrong to blame someone under 3, so I guess it’s my fault. I followed plenty of other little pre-game rituals, but not the big ones.

Rationally, I know that sitting in the wrong seat, and not having a Yuengling during the game wasn’t what cost Pitt that game. But…

Really, this sort of thing goes back to the 1996 MLB playoffs and World Series. A bunch of us at law school got together to watch the games. We all sat in the same seats, repeating the same standards, drinking the same type of beer. The only times we didn’t meet to watch, the Yankees lost. We graduated in ’97 and blamed ourselves for the Yankees losing in the playoffs that year.

I’m very worried about what to do with Pitt’s game at 12:40 pm on Thursday. It doesn’t bode well.

So, here’s the question of the day. What are your rituals and superstitions when it comes to game day for Pitt? How bad does it get?

After some semi-literate attempts and finally some help from Chas, I managed to create my bracket. (See: McClearn, Entry 1) View at your leisure.

For the purposes of conversation, however, here are my final four picks:

Chicago: Illinois

Albequerque: Louisville

Syracuse: UNC

Ausitn: Syracuse

For the final, I predicted:

Illinois 71, Syracuse 73

I predicted UConn losing to UNC, Syracuse upending Kansas, Louisville beating Wake Forest, and Illinois fending off Oklahoma State to get to the Final Four.

I also predicted that we beat Pacific and Washington but then losing to Louisville in the Sweet 16. So, hey, I’m not a TOTAL homer.

Let the comparing of notes begin!

Just a few pieces mentioning Pitt or Pacific to pass on. A look at Pitt’s stumbles in the last few years.

SWEET 16: Pittsburgh

The Panthers have become a force in the Big East but have been eliminated in the regional semifinals three years in a row. Two of the three teams that eliminated the Panthers (Marquette and Oklahoma State) went to the Final Four. Pitt‘s best chance to get past the Sweet 16 probably was its first, when it lost in overtime against Kent State.

Pitt‘s premature eliminations partly were the result of its nonconference schedules, which led to poorer seedings than the teams’ strength warranted. Last year, for instance, the Panthers were 28-4 in the regular season and went to the Big East Tournament title game — but had only the 45th-best RPI strength of schedule. So in some ways, they were fortunate to be a No. 3 seed but were good enough to be a No. 2.

Pitt‘s schedule was weak again this season, but it will be less of an issue with the Panthers not contending for a high seed. The difference between this team and its predecessors is that it can score, although that requires wing Antonio Graves to be playing aggressively and confidently.

Oh, and since some people are sick of me making comments about the importance of the non-con, I’ll let someone else do it.

Bob Bowlsby wasn’t kidding.

For weeks, he warned us in the media. He warned you in the listening audience. And most of all he warned them — college basketball schools and coaches.

Bowlsby, the chairman of the 2005 NCAA Tournament selection committee, warned anyone who would listen that the non-conference schedule would be a vital line on each candidate’s resume.

When the bracket was released Sunday night, it was clear just how vital.

Interestingly, conference tournaments also played an enormous role in the makeup of the 2005 bracket.

Shockingly, the conference slate — the part of the season coaches think should matter most — was downplayed in the process.
…
It told the selection committee to ignore Pittsburgh’s work in the Big East regular season. The Panthers (20-8, 10-6) finished two full games ahead of West Virginia (21-10, 8-8), but West Virginia was seeded two full rungs ahead of Pittsburgh, getting a No. 7 seed compared to Pitt’s No. 9.

That was a function of West Virginia’s season sweep but also the other unexpectedly important resume line — conference tournaments. Surely no one thought what happened last week would be unimportant. But who knew it would be that important?

It means less games against teams who have an RPI below 200. Yes, the top-25 game or two would be excellent, but reducing the number of bottom feeders played is more important. Sorry, I can’t help it. This has been an issue for me since this blog started.

From the 65 storylines for 65 teams.

6. Players Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon has tried at the wing positions since senior Yuri Demetris was suspended in January for violating team rules. As important as sophomore center Chris Taft’s progress is, getting consistent offensive and defensive production at shooting guard and small forward will be more important to Pittsburgh’s tournament run.

Can’t really argue with that. In the BC game, DeGroat provided a new wrinkle. In the comeback games against UConn and Syracuse, it was Kendall.

For something fun and to feel better about Pitt. How about the rankings for schools with the best combination of football and basketball.

12. Pittsburgh — No one seemed to really want the Big East championship this year, so Pittsburgh snuck in with a huge win in the Backyard Brawl, and earned a fat paycheck to be Utah’s speed bag in the Fiesta Bowl. The 2004 season marked the anticipated debut of quarterback Tyler Palko and the expected departure of head coach Walt Harris. Indoors, the Panthers have been rather schizophrenic. The same squad that lost to Bucknell and St. Johns also won road games at UConn, Syracuse and Boston College. At 20-8, they’re the No. 9 in the Albuquerque region.
Winter MVP — F Chevon Troutman

Spring drills for the football team start on Saturday.

Wannstedt said his top three priorities in the spring are evaluating players, installing a new offense and laying a foundation for the Panthers to become tough-minded, mentally strong and physical.

That final point means practices likely will be more physical than in the past, and players will be pushed as if it were training camp. Wannstedt is an old-school coach and has a reputation for running tough practices.

Pitt is coming off an 8-4 season, a Bowl Championship Series Fiesta Bowl bid and has nine starters returning on offense and seven on defense. Usually, a team with that profile would use the spring to fill a couple of holes and tune up for the season.

But with a new coaching staff in place, every job is up for grabs.

I get the feeling there might be a few more than usual media types covering spring practice this year.

It likely won’t be avoided for much longer. Panthers versus Tigers. We can expect all the usual cliches when two teams with the same genus of mascot meet. Especially when the teams have no history. The teams have never played each other. Pitt has played a total of 5 games against Big West Conference teams, with a record of 4-1. The last time facing a Big West opponent was in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament in 1981. Pitt beat Idaho 70-69.

On the West Coast, they are lining up to get on the bandwagon of the team from Stockton. San Jose claims the rights to them, despite being 75 miles away, because Pacific was originally located in San Jose up until 1925. Okay.

In the Big West championship game, Pacific had their 22 game winning streak snapped. They weren’t playing well in their tournament.

The Tigers are approaching the tournament like a new season. They know they
have to play better than they did last week to defeat a team like Pittsburgh.

Pacific committed 23 turnovers against Cal State Northridge and escaped
with a 63-61 victory in the Big West Tournament semifinals. Utah State smothered
the Tigers with a 25-6 run in the second half en route to a 65-52 win in the
championship. Pacific couldn’t match the Aggies’ physical style of play, which
is something it will address this week.

“We’d better bring our mouth guards to the game because it’s going to be a
physical game,” guard Marko Mihailovic said. “If we thought Utah State was
physical we have something coming. Pitt’s one of the most physical teams in the
country, and the Big East is one of the most physical conferences in the country
and they stand out amongst them as the toughest team in that conference.”

You get the impression that Pacific is taking their cues from Lou Holtz by building up Pitt. It continues.

Early yesterday morning, Pacific coach Bob Thomason was speaking with
friend and coaching colleague Jerry Tarkanian, who confirmed what Thomason had
suspected all along. His basketball team got a raw deal in facing Pitt in the
first round of the NCAA tournament.

“Tark said, ‘Man, that’s not a good draw for you. I’ve seen them play a
few times. They can go to the Final Four,’ ” Thomason said yesterday, taking
some time to discuss a first-round matchup Thursday against the Panthers.

Isn’t it fascinating how Tarkanian, one of the most ethically questionable basketball coaches — ever — is like every college coach’s friend? It’s not just me is it? I get that the guy is apparently friendly and charming, but he’s everybody’s buddy. How? But I digress.

The other thing working to the advantage of Pacific, is that they are heavy with upper-classmen in the line-up. A team that has played together for quite some time, and everybody knows their role.

Pitt is trying to regroup. It has now fallen out of both polls. The first time in 3 years.

Speaking of knowing roles. That is the topic in the Trib. Coach Jamie Dixon’s rotation and substitution patterns (or lack of).

A new phenomenon entered the world of Pitt basketball this season — the well-choreographed head scratch by Panthers fans.

You know the one by now. It occurs when guys like forward John DeGroat, guard Keith Benjamin and center Aaron Gray go in and out of games at warp speed, as if they are stuck in a revolving door.

DeGroat, for example, played two minutes in the Panthers’ 67-58 quarterfinal loss to Villanova in the Big East Tournament, after playing a combined 25 minutes the previous two games against Boston College (16 minutes, 10 points) and Notre Dame (nine minutes, no points).

Benjamin had not left the bench for two games before playing 15 minutes and contributing six points against Villanova.

Gray’s minutes have fluctuated more than Oprah’s weight, as have those of forwards Mark McCarroll and Levon Kendall. It can be confusing to those watching the games — and to those playing in them, as well.

Coach Jamie Dixon is clearly attempting to push the right buttons, but Pitt has lost four of six entering its first-round NCAA Tournament game against Pacific on Thursday in Boise, Idaho, and some players are uncertain of their roles.

In the story, Kendall is about the only guy coming close to saying his game is suffering for the quick hook. I have mixed feelings. There have been several games, especially in the last 3 weeks, where I don’t think Dixon clearly thought out the match-ups. Where it seemed inexplicable that one player never makes it off the bench and another only gets one minute each half to play. Going into the season, I wondered how Coach Dixon would deal with having a team with legitimate depth — a first for Pitt in more than 12 years. Right now, I’d say he hasn’t handled it with aplomb. I’m not quite willing to go as far as Joe Starkey.

Yo, Jamie, it’s mid-March. Time to decide who can play and who can’t.

Why did we see Keith Benjamin singe Syracuse for 10 points and five rebounds in 21 minutes, only to be packed away in mothballs after a bad game a week later?

Why did we see John DeGroat burn Boston College for 1 points and seven rebounds in 16 minutes, only to be buried after a shaky encore at Notre Dame?

Dixon might as well install a revolving door at the bench. From this angle, it’s clear that his schizophrenic substitution patterns are partly responsible for Pitt staggering into the NCAA Tournament with four losses in six games.

A handful of players are confused about their roles. All they know is that Dixon has a short leash — and that can breed the sort of apprehension seen on certain faces against Villanova.

Let’s not go revisionist. The Villanova loss occurred because Troutman had a bad game, and Ramon and Graves couldn’t hit a deep jumper.

Starkey gets to Ramon and Graves, questioning why they are in the game so much when they don’t shoot so well. It ignores the fact that they are the two best defensive options at the positions. Benjamin has shown flashes, but has been inconsistent on defense. No matter how much this team is not like last year, defensively, the players are still expected to put defense first. McCarroll, DeGroat and Kendall provide energy at the small forward/three guard spot, but are not good on perimeter defense or with guys off the dribble.

As far as why some guys seem to disappear from the rotation for games at a time. I think the clue was found in last week’s Q&A with Fittipaldo.

Q: What ever happened to Keith Benjamin? He had a couple of huge games earlier in the season but hasn’t played a lot lately.

FITTIPALDO: I wouldn’t say he had any “huge” games, Jeff. Benjamin scored 10 points against Syracuse in January and looked like he was coming on strong, but he really hasn’t been a factor since. He has not played in three of the past four games. Word is he hasn’t been practicing well.
Dixon seems to have found his rotation the past few games, so I wouldn’t expect Benjamin to see a whole lot of playing time unless there is foul trouble or someone gets injured.

It seems that when you don’t do well in practice, especially the young kids, you don’t get game playing time. You want the best players out there, but you also want them to be working to get better. Playing time is really the only carrot available at this point.

Right now, it comes down to whether you want Dixon to now just pick and stick with a rotation no matter what, or try to game plan and look at the match-ups.