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October 21, 2003

Week 9 Picks: Fear and Trembling

Filed under: Uncategorized — Lee @ 12:44 pm

OK, so I was re-reading one of my college Kierkegaard books last night… (yes, I was a useless Philosophy major… that’s why I had to go to grad school at OSU)

Here are the games that I’m most interested in this week. I’ll briefly discuss each and then pick it, putting my absolutely stunning 14-14 season record against the spread on the line.

SYRACUSE (+7) AT PITTSBURGH: Chas provides a very detailed and (based on all that I’ve seen and read) accurate summary of the Orangemen’s strengths in his latest post.

Defensively, Syracuse’s line was extraordinarily tough against Boston College — holding Derrick Knight (then the nation’s leading rusher) to just 51 yards and frequently pressuring BC’s quarterback. The Orangemen’s tackling was vastly improved over their performance against Virginia Tech the week before (thus proving that you CAN improve fundamentals in the middle of a season, Pitt Defensive Coordinator Paul Rhoads!). However, Syracuse’s defense did have some occasional containment issues and did let a few passes get behind them.

Keeping in mind that Boston College’s offensive line is vastly superior to Pitt’s, I think we can assume that Syracuse will effectively shut down our running game and frequently pressure Rod Rutherford. Will they disrupt our aerial attack as much as Notre Dame did? Given how uncreative and unresponsive our offensive coaching staff has been thus far, I can’t see why not.

Offensively, Syracuse has a very balanced attack. Walter Reyes is, as Chas noted, one of the best tailbacks in the Big East. Although Reyes was out rushed by his own quarterback last week, the Orangemen still pounded out 182 yards on the ground. Through the air, Quarterback R.J. Anderson threw for 230 yards (21 completions on 28 attempts) and 3 touchdowns.

Unless our defense has learned to tackle and penetrate the offensive line in the past seven days (and since Paul Rhoads and his staff haven’t improved anything thus far this season, why should I assume that they will now?), the Orangemen’s offense shouldn’t have much trouble with us.

In conclusion, I can’t believe that Pitt is actually favored to win this thing. Give me the Orangemen and the seven points.

#8 OHIO STATE (-20.5) AT INDIANA: Twenty and a half points? Are you freakin’ kidding me!? Ohio State couldn’t hang that many on its own practice squad.

Offensively, Ohio State is now ranked 114th of the 117 teams in Division I-A. Its pitiful rushing attack — which has netted an average of 2.89 yards per carry and 108.7 total yards per game — is ranked 97th in Division I-A and is the worst rushing unit to come out of Columbus since 1966.

Not that I don’t think the Buckeyes will beat Indiana. They certainly will. But only because of their exceptional defense and special teams. This is a team that wins ugly, but not a team that beats anybody by 21 points.

PENN STATE (+11) AT #16 IOWA: Ah, the Blunder Bowl, the Generosity Game, the Anti-Beamer Brawl… Each one of these teams gave away its last game largely with its special teams… and each to a quality opponent (Wisconsin and Ohio State respectively). Who will blunder the most this week?

Well, I ain’t gonna stop picking against Penn State until they actually beat a spread. That being said, this pick does make me nervous. The emergence of Quarterback Michael Robinson has re-energized Penn State’s once pathetic offensive line and receiving corps. And jeez did Iowa’s offense screw up a lot in Columbus.

#3 VIRGINIA TECH (-13) AT WEST VIRGINIA: A little Wednesday night surprise? No way in hell. The Hoopies ain’t sneaking up on any more ACC-bound traitors. Besides, the Hoopies and the Hokies have already agreed to continue playing each other indefinitely due to their long-standing rivalry. So there’s little motivation for revenge. And like I’ve been saying, the Hokies are better than the Hurricanes anyways. So give me the Hokies and I’ll give you 13.

NOTRE DAME (+4) AT BOSTON COLLEGE: The Irish and the Eagles can both run the ball well, but BC has run it better throughout the season (I’ll take Knight and his o-line over Jones and his o-line any day). Plus, BC can throw the ball, and its o-line should protect the QB better than Pitt’s did against ND. I’ll take BC and give four.

So for this week, I got the Orangemen, Hoosiers, Hawkeyes, Hokies, and Eagles against the spread… two dogs and three to cover.

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Not that anybody asked, but here’s my top ten for this week.

1. Oklahoma: OK, so you didn’t cover against Missouri (score one for Lee). You’re still scary good on both sides of the ball.
2. Virginia Tech: Speaking of good on both sides of the ball, Tech is also good on the ground, in the air, and on special teams. The Castrated Turkeys still haven’t played anybody yet, but they will November 1…
3. Miami: You’re meat in 11 days.
4. Georgia: Clearly the toughest and best rounded of the one-loss teams. Besides, losing in Baton Rouge is no big thang.
5. USC: It’s so hard to rank these guys, since they have few common opponents with eastern teams. But damn, they looked pretty against Notre Dame, didn’t they?
6. Washington State: Ditto my comments for number 5… minus the Notre Dame stuff, obviously. But hey, you’re still better than…
7. Ohio State: OFFENSE, PLEASE!!! And will Tressel hire a real offensive line coach already? Jim Bollman has clearly proven that he can’t handle both that and his Offensive Coordinator duties. But even with no offense whatsoever, the Buckeyes are still better than…
8. Florida State: You’re very lucky that you’re in such a weak conference, Bobby. Remember that when both the Hurricanes and the Hokies start regularly kicking your ass next year.
9. Purdue: If you can beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, we will all finally begin taking you seriously.
10. Michigan State: Um… ditto?

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Hail to My Pitt-Syracuse Pick Being All Screwed Up





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