OK, so I was re-reading one of my college Kierkegaard books last night… (yes, I was a useless Philosophy major… that’s why I had to go to grad school at OSU)

Here are the games that I’m most interested in this week. I’ll briefly discuss each and then pick it, putting my absolutely stunning 14-14 season record against the spread on the line.

SYRACUSE (+7) AT PITTSBURGH: Chas provides a very detailed and (based on all that I’ve seen and read) accurate summary of the Orangemen’s strengths in his latest post.

Defensively, Syracuse’s line was extraordinarily tough against Boston College — holding Derrick Knight (then the nation’s leading rusher) to just 51 yards and frequently pressuring BC’s quarterback. The Orangemen’s tackling was vastly improved over their performance against Virginia Tech the week before (thus proving that you CAN improve fundamentals in the middle of a season, Pitt Defensive Coordinator Paul Rhoads!). However, Syracuse’s defense did have some occasional containment issues and did let a few passes get behind them.

Keeping in mind that Boston College’s offensive line is vastly superior to Pitt’s, I think we can assume that Syracuse will effectively shut down our running game and frequently pressure Rod Rutherford. Will they disrupt our aerial attack as much as Notre Dame did? Given how uncreative and unresponsive our offensive coaching staff has been thus far, I can’t see why not.

Offensively, Syracuse has a very balanced attack. Walter Reyes is, as Chas noted, one of the best tailbacks in the Big East. Although Reyes was out rushed by his own quarterback last week, the Orangemen still pounded out 182 yards on the ground. Through the air, Quarterback R.J. Anderson threw for 230 yards (21 completions on 28 attempts) and 3 touchdowns.

Unless our defense has learned to tackle and penetrate the offensive line in the past seven days (and since Paul Rhoads and his staff haven’t improved anything thus far this season, why should I assume that they will now?), the Orangemen’s offense shouldn’t have much trouble with us.

In conclusion, I can’t believe that Pitt is actually favored to win this thing. Give me the Orangemen and the seven points.

#8 OHIO STATE (-20.5) AT INDIANA: Twenty and a half points? Are you freakin’ kidding me!? Ohio State couldn’t hang that many on its own practice squad.

Offensively, Ohio State is now ranked 114th of the 117 teams in Division I-A. Its pitiful rushing attack — which has netted an average of 2.89 yards per carry and 108.7 total yards per game — is ranked 97th in Division I-A and is the worst rushing unit to come out of Columbus since 1966.

Not that I don’t think the Buckeyes will beat Indiana. They certainly will. But only because of their exceptional defense and special teams. This is a team that wins ugly, but not a team that beats anybody by 21 points.

PENN STATE (+11) AT #16 IOWA: Ah, the Blunder Bowl, the Generosity Game, the Anti-Beamer Brawl… Each one of these teams gave away its last game largely with its special teams… and each to a quality opponent (Wisconsin and Ohio State respectively). Who will blunder the most this week?

Well, I ain’t gonna stop picking against Penn State until they actually beat a spread. That being said, this pick does make me nervous. The emergence of Quarterback Michael Robinson has re-energized Penn State’s once pathetic offensive line and receiving corps. And jeez did Iowa’s offense screw up a lot in Columbus.

#3 VIRGINIA TECH (-13) AT WEST VIRGINIA: A little Wednesday night surprise? No way in hell. The Hoopies ain’t sneaking up on any more ACC-bound traitors. Besides, the Hoopies and the Hokies have already agreed to continue playing each other indefinitely due to their long-standing rivalry. So there’s little motivation for revenge. And like I’ve been saying, the Hokies are better than the Hurricanes anyways. So give me the Hokies and I’ll give you 13.

NOTRE DAME (+4) AT BOSTON COLLEGE: The Irish and the Eagles can both run the ball well, but BC has run it better throughout the season (I’ll take Knight and his o-line over Jones and his o-line any day). Plus, BC can throw the ball, and its o-line should protect the QB better than Pitt’s did against ND. I’ll take BC and give four.

So for this week, I got the Orangemen, Hoosiers, Hawkeyes, Hokies, and Eagles against the spread… two dogs and three to cover.

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Not that anybody asked, but here’s my top ten for this week.

1. Oklahoma: OK, so you didn’t cover against Missouri (score one for Lee). You’re still scary good on both sides of the ball.
2. Virginia Tech: Speaking of good on both sides of the ball, Tech is also good on the ground, in the air, and on special teams. The Castrated Turkeys still haven’t played anybody yet, but they will November 1…
3. Miami: You’re meat in 11 days.
4. Georgia: Clearly the toughest and best rounded of the one-loss teams. Besides, losing in Baton Rouge is no big thang.
5. USC: It’s so hard to rank these guys, since they have few common opponents with eastern teams. But damn, they looked pretty against Notre Dame, didn’t they?
6. Washington State: Ditto my comments for number 5… minus the Notre Dame stuff, obviously. But hey, you’re still better than…
7. Ohio State: OFFENSE, PLEASE!!! And will Tressel hire a real offensive line coach already? Jim Bollman has clearly proven that he can’t handle both that and his Offensive Coordinator duties. But even with no offense whatsoever, the Buckeyes are still better than…
8. Florida State: You’re very lucky that you’re in such a weak conference, Bobby. Remember that when both the Hurricanes and the Hokies start regularly kicking your ass next year.
9. Purdue: If you can beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, we will all finally begin taking you seriously.
10. Michigan State: Um… ditto?

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Hail to My Pitt-Syracuse Pick Being All Screwed Up

As you probably already know, the loyal members of the Big East Football Conference (Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Rutgers, Connecticut, and probably Louisville, Cincinnati, and DePaul) will keep their automatic bid to a BCS bowl until 2005. What happens after that? Well, the BCS Commissioners are currently mulling that over. ESPN’s Ivan Maisel reports the following on their progress.

The BCS commissioners are looking at eight different plans to modify the Bowl Championship Series beginning in 2006. Among the changes being considered are a lowering of the qualifying standard for the non-BCS champions, a play-in game for the highest-ranked champions of the non-BCS conferences, an expansion to a fifth bowl, a post-BCS championship game, or some combination therein.

The most appealing to both sides is the lowering of the qualifying standard. Whether the BCS adds a fifth bowl or not, giving a team that finishes in the top 20 in the BCS standings an automatic bid makes competitive sense and puts the antitrust question to rest.

Assuming that the Big East Football Conference will lose it’s automatic BCS bowl bid after 2005 (and I now think that this is a fairly safe assumption), either (1) lowering the qualifying standards for non-BCS conference teams (which Pitt will likely become) to play in a BCS bowl, (2) starting a BCS play-in game for the highest-ranked non-BCS conference teams, or (3) expanding to a fifth BCS bowl (thus making more conferences into BCS conferences) would be acceptable. Of course, I’d prefer the last option. Maintaining a guaranteed Big East BCS bowl bid is always better than having to fight it out for a bid with the MAC and Mountain West teams.

However, adding a fifth BCS bowl may not fly because it would spread the BCS money to more teams than the current BCS conferences would like. So I’m currently betting that the BCS Commissioners will just lower the qualifying standards for non-BCS teams to play in a BCS bowl. This isn’t good for Pitt (and we still should be fighting to get in the Big Ten, which will obviously maintain its automatic BCS bowl bid), but it’s acceptable.

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Finally, under the “Laughing At Penn State’s Misfortunes” category (and don’t think that they weren’t laughing when we lost to Notre Dame), the Nittany Lion’s star wide receiver, senior Tony Johnson, has been charged with Driving Under the Influence of alcohol after he was pulled over at 3:00 AM last Friday morning. Thus, Johnson joins offensive lineman E.Z. Smith (who was cited for underage drinking twice in one week in August), defensive back Anwar Phillips (who was charged but later acquitted of sexual assault), and a long list of other Nittany Lion football players who have discovered that there is absolutely nothing to do in State College but drink and screw.

What makes Tony Johnson’s DUI bust so entertaining, though, is the fact that his father — Larry Sr. — is Penn State’s defensive line coach and a highly respected member of State College society who regularly and repeatedly speaks to Centre County’s churches and church groups. My parents, bible-thumpers themselves, love the Johnson family. Tony’s brother Larry Jr., of course, was the Lion’s brilliant tailback who rushed for 2,000 yards last season.

So the moral of the story is, don’t drive around State College after dark in anything smaller than a Hummer. That guy in the car coming the other way might just be a Penn State football player.

Hail to George Foreman’s Lean Mean Grilling Machine (Jen and I got one as a wedding present, and damn is it slick)

Pitt coming off a game that they started with a roar and ended with a whimper, will play a Syracuse team that seems to be playing better each week (notwithstanding the 51-7 drubbing at the hands of Virginia Tech a couple weeks ago). Against BC, Syracuse played a solid defense and strong offense.

On defense, SU took the nation’s leading rusher out of BC’s equation, sacked the quarterback five times – twice more than they had in their previous five games combined – and intercepted two passes.
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“It was won up front,” SU defensive coordinator Chris Rippon said. “It was clear from the beginning that we were not going to be pushed around. Our front four was disruptive the whole game, and we tackled. It was as simple as that. Last week we didn’t tackle. This week we tackled.”

That was one of several encouraging signs displayed by the Orangemen. Here are some others:

Run defense. With the front four of tackles Christian Ferrara and Louis Gachelin – the unsung heroes of the victory – and ends James Wyche and Thomas controlling the line of scrimmage, BC’s Derrick Knight was held to 51 yards rushing, nearly 100 yards below his season average.

Overall, SU held the Eagles to 70 yards rushing, roughly 140 below their season average. This from a unit that had been run over for 337 yards by Virginia Tech the week before.

“Their D-line got after us all game long,” BC quarterback Quinton Porter said. “Give them credit, because we have a real good O-line.”

Much of the rushing yardage SU yielded to Tech came after plays designed to run inside got bounced outside and then Orange defensive backs missed tackles. The only place BC backs bounced Saturday was onto the turf.

Defensive diversity. The style of defense employed by the Orangemen against Boston College was light years away from the scheme they employed in their first few games of the season.

There were stunts, linebacker blitzes, safety blitzes, delayed blitzes, switches from man to zone coverage packages, all disguised well to keep Porter and BC coaches guessing.

“They were coming out blitzing, sending linebackers, giving us all kinds of different looks,” Knight said. “They were throwing all kinds of things at us.”

The result was a season-high five sacks and two interceptions, which made an otherwise fine performance by Porter (10-for-29 for 249 yards and two touchdowns) seem pedestrian.

There were a few danger signs. SU’s containment broke down several times, allowing Porter to scramble for first downs, and he hit Larry Lester with a 39-yard TD pass late in the third period.

With mobile Pittsburgh quarterback Rod Rutherford and superstar receiver Larry Fitzgerald up next, they could be ominous signs.

Brandon Miree is going to be out at least 3 more weeks. A new MRI revealed not a deep bone bruise in the calf, but a stress fracture. Pitt is going to have to figure something out to run the ball. Even if they can pass at will, the offense will need to find a way to eat some time. Syracuse appears to have a solid defensive line. Pitt’s O-line has yet to show any consistency and ability to give protection.

Syracuse has one of the best Running Backs in the Big East if not a top 10 in the country in Walter Reyes. After what Pitt has given up to Jumaine Jones of Notre Dame, you have to imagine he’ll be salivating at the chance to run at the Pitt defensive lines. This means Pitt absolutely must tackle. No hitting, no diving at legs. Wrap the arms around the body and drag his ass down. Tackle. Tackle. Tackle.

There is a weblog covering the Syracuse Orangemen, called Orange Juice — I’d mock the name, but I have this thing about throwing rocks from a glass house.