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October 19, 2003

Week 8 Review: Clouds on the Horizon

Filed under: Uncategorized — Lee @ 11:42 am

You’d think that I’d be in a fairly good mood this morning. The Yankees lost game one (which I didn’t watch in protest… plus, you know the Yankees will just win it all anyways), Pitt won 42-32, Ohio State won 19-10, I got to spend the day with my charming baby niece in Baltimore (the armpit of the East Coast), and my picks against the spread for the week went 3-2 — taking my season record back to .500 (14-14). But I’m admittedly still smarting from last weekend’s disaster.

Nevertheless, let’s review my picks… especially the Pitt-Rutgers and Boston College-Syracuse (our next opponent) games…

PITT 42, RUTGERS 32: I took Rutgers plus 15.5 here because of Pitt’s weak defense, poor fundamentals (especially tackling), terrible Defensive Coordinator, pathetic offensive line, and one dimensional offense. I was right on the pick, but mostly because Pitt’s defense let Rutgers score 25 unanswered points in the second half.

Chas makes an interesting and possibly valid point about Pitt’s defense in his latest post. Chas theorizes that our pathetic offensive line and weak running game (apparent even at Rutgers) causes (in the best scenario) quick or (in the worst and all too common scenario) ineffective drives that keep the defense on the field for too much time during each game. Thus, the defense simply tires out and begins to play poorly. I think that Chas’s common-sense theory holds a lot of water, although it fails to explain the poor tackling and lack of intensity at the beginning of some games. Plus, Defensive Coordinator Paul Rhoads’s scheme-calling and halftime adjustments are terrible (by Pitt’s standards) even though he’s comfortably standing on the sidelines. Besides, doesn’t Pitt have the legendary Strength and Conditioning Coach Dave Kennedy and the best training facilities in college football on its side? Ohio State’s defense is regularly left out on the field all freakin’ day, but it still performs far better than Pitt in the 4th quarter.

At the very best, Pitt’s defense stinks. However, I agree with Chas that it is made to smell even worse partially by Pitt’s even stinkier offense. In any case, I’m worried about next Saturday (see my notes on the Syracuse/BC game below).

MIAMI 52, TEMPLE 14: I took Temple plus 31 points here because I was betting on a letdown between the Miami-Florida State game and the Miami-Virginia Tech game. I actually thought that this was one of my safer bets. Oh well. Maybe Miami is better than I thought it was. Maybe Temple’s just worse. Either way, I’m sticking with Virginia Tech for the upset against the Hurricanes in two weeks.

SYRACUSE 39, BOSTON COLLEGE 14: I took Syracuse plus 3.5 points here mostly because of the revenge factor. And boy was I right. How many Panthers fans didn’t crack a little smile when the Carrier Dome erupted into cheers of “A-C-C! A-C-C!” as the Orangemen returned a blocked punt for their final score?

But Pitt’s next opponent deserves more discussion than just that. Syracuse’s passing attack was pretty impressive: Quarterback R.J. Anderson threw for 230 yards (21 completions on 28 attempts) and 3 touchdowns. However, the Orangemen really outgained BC on the ground — rushing for 182 total yards vs. BC’s 72 (remember what BC did to PSU on the ground?). Intercepting BC twice sealed the deal for the Orangemen.

So next week, Pitt will be playing a competent and fairly well balanced offense. And Pitt will have to counter against a fairly strong Syracuse run-defense that will likely make the Panthers one-dimensional yet again. I’m nervous.

OHIO STATE 19, IOWA 10: I bet against my beloved Buckeyes here (taking Iowa and 3.5 points) because Iowa’s defense and passing game seemed so much stronger than those of the Wisconsin team that beat Ohio State in Madison last Saturday night. However, I badly overrated Iowa’s offense (which sucked golf balls through garden hoses). Furthermore, I wasn’t counting on Iowa to gift-wrap 9 points (via a punt-block and a high snap through the end zone) in the fourth quarter.

However, Ohio State’s offense clearly regressed for this game. Despite FINALLY having every starter back from the national championship team except Maurice Clarett, the Buckeyes had only 185 yards of total offense — including a pitiful 56 yards on 42 carries on the ground. However, OSU’s defense and special teams performed adequately.

By the way, Iowa’s Head Coach Kirk Ferentz is still the man. Talent against talent, Iowa shouldn’t have been anywhere near Ohio State. But despite the scoreboard, I know who I thought won the battle of coaching and of getting the most out of his team.

OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 13: I took Missouri and 26 points here because I was betting on a letdown from the heretofore all-to-perfect Sooners. I was right… barely. Oklahoma hardly had a letdown. But Missouri stayed close enough to keep my day over .500.

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I always get up at 7:30 Sunday morning to catch ESPN’s College Gameday Final with Mark Mays and the always assinine Trev Alberts (plus some talking head who’s name escapes me right now). This morning, in a short outburst while he was bemoaning the fact that current (and may I predict, temporary) Big Ten leaders Michigan State and Purdue don’t play each other this year, Alberts demanded that the Big Ten add a 12th team adding that the current setup “IS A FRAUD!!!” So anyways, somebody out there besides Pitt fans wants the Big Ten to expand. Unfortunately, it is an immature, insulting (especially to Mark May) jackass who is universally despised across the Midwest (especially in BOTH Columbus and Ann Arbor, and that takes work).

In any case, I’m still betting on the Big Ten staying at 11 members for at least two or three more seasons.

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Hail to That Born-Again Hypocrite Good Ole Boy Bobby “Free Shoes” Bowden For FINALLY Tying Joe Paterno’s All-Time Win Record (so when do you have a bye week, Bobby?)

It’s a lyric from a song. Figure it out.

I realize a win’s a win. And no offense to Rutgers fans, but…

There was a lot to still worry about after that game.

Pitt had a 42-7 halftime lead. They failed to score in the second half and held on for a 42-32 win.

What has happened to Kicker David Abdul? He went into the season as one of the best kickers in the Big East. He missed both field goal attempts that were eminently makeable — 39 and 40 yard attempts. He is now 4-10 for the season.

The running game is still lost without Brendan Miree. Don’t let the stats fool you. Jawan Walker ran 16 times for 81 yards, but 55 of the yards came on one run. This means the rest was really 15 for 26 yards. Breaking it down further, Walker had 6 carries for negative or 0 yards, 4 carries for 1-2 yards, 1 carry for 3 yards, and 3 carries for 4 or more yards (excluding the 55 yard run).

The inability to provide a sustained drive means the defense is out on the field a lot more. Sure Pitt scored 6 touchdowns in the 1st half, but out of the 18 possessions by Pitt there were only had 4 drives of 7 plays or more (including punting on 4th down). They had 7 series where they went 3 and out. Pitt never held the ball for more than 4 minutes at a time. Little wonder the defense started giving up points and ground so much in the second half. (By comparison, Rutgers had 7 drives of 7 plays or more. Rutgers also had 5 series of 3 and out, but only 1 came in the second half.)

[I’m starting to feel some sympathy for the defense. Sure, they are still trying to hit rather than tackle, but it is becoming apparent that they are getting gassed from being out on the field so much.]

3rd down efficiency was abysmal. 3-12.

No defensive pressure. Only 2 sack for the Pitt D.

Being shut out 25-0 in the second half also suggests that Rutgers made adjustments at the half; and Pitt did nothing in response. Another longtime complaint about Harris at this blog (Longtime? This has only been up and running since August. — ed. So? It’s long been a complaint of the participants before the blog).

Even Coach Walt Harris knows that they won only because they were playing Rutgers.

“We’re thankful we won,” Pitt coach Walt Harris said.

Even the good stuff comes with the knowledge that it was mostly just from the first half. Rutherford was 22-38 for 381 yards overall, but in the second half was 2-10 for 34 yards. For the second straight week, Larry Fitzgerald was shut out in the second half. Of course that just makes his 8 catches for 207 yards and 2 TDs that much more ridiculous.

The offensive line did, however, give Rutherford protection this game, even as the running game was stillborn. He was sacked only once. More importantly, and something I have been screaming for, TE Kris Wilson wasn’t forced to stay and block. He had a big game with 9 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. Wilson is an excellent weapon that must be utilized more often.

Next up, Pitt is at home against Syracuse. It will be homecoming. Noon start. Damn. Looks like I’ll be on the road by 7 am.

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