I’m back with my stunning 9-9 record against the spread and ready to talk about this weekend’s games. And what a weekend it is — #2 Miami at #5 Florida State, #1 Oklahoma vs. #11 Texas. And most exciting of all — #16 Pitt vs. Notre Dame.
Not unlike most Americans, I hate Notre Dame. It’s not that I’m anti-Catholic or anti-Irish (although I do enjoy getting into it with Pat). It’s just that I’m jealous of Notre Dame’s exclusive television contract with NBC, and since when is jealousy a bad reason for hating someone? Besides, the Irish get far more money than at least a dozen programs who regularly put a better product on the field. And this leads to the second reason why I hate Notre Dame: they’re the biggest underachievers in sports (even bigger than Penn State or the Braves). With the money, television exposure, and recruits that they get, Notre Dame should either win or strongly contend for the national championship every year. Yet they rarely, rarely do. There’s no excuse for that.
So let’s get down to business. Here’s what I’ll be watching this Saturday…
NOTRE DAME (+12) AT #16 PITTSBURGH (see how that works, Chas?): So what happens when Notre Dame’s pathetic offense comes up against Pitt’s equally pathetic defense? Will the world end in a matter/antimatter-like explosion? Possibly. I’m guessing that at the very least, the Irish will run the ball against us better than they ran it against Purdue (49 yards on 25 carries). Irish Quarterbacks Quinn and Holliday (whichever it is this week) will probably pass a whole lot better too.
According to an AP story on page B3 of today’s Altoona Mirror, Pitt’s Head Coach Walt Harris and Defensive Coordinator Paul Rhoades have spent most of the past two weeks re-tooling our pass defense. Will their efforts bear fruit? For some reason, I’m going to guess yes. I’ll guess that our pass defense will slightly improve, and that we will be able to get slightly more pressure on the opposing quarterback than we have been getting. The end result? Notre Dame will score two or three touchdowns on us.
Larry Fitzgerald will score at least that many touchdowns by himself. Pitt’s newly discovered home field advantage will be worth a touchdown, and our resurgent running game will be worth yet another. So I’ll take the Panthers to barely cover this 12 point spread.
#2 MIAMI (+6) AT #5 FLORIDA STATE: Of course, regardless of who I pick here, I’ll be rooting for a terrible natural disaster or an act of a vengeful God to wipe both of these programs off of the face of the Earth and plunge them all into eternal torment.
OK, maybe I got a little carried away there (hey, I’m Protestant, I’m allowed)… Still, I’ll take the more fundamentally sound team with the significantly better defense over the flashier team with the suddenly depleted running back corps (if I have to hear who Jarrett Peyton’s dad is one more time…) anyday, especially when the former has home field advantage. Moreover, I think that Michael Bouleware will limit Kellen Winslow Jr.’s effectiveness to the point that Florida State will beat Miami by more than six. Bobby Bowden knows that needs to make a statement here, and I think he will. Give me the Noles, and I’ll give you the points.
#3 OHIO STATE (-3) AT #22 WISCONSIN: When Ohio State first lost Maurice Clarett, I said that they wouldn’t really miss him except for three games: N.C. State (which the Buckeyes barely won), the season-ending battle with Michigan (of course), and Wisconsin. So will the magical, luck-laden winning streak finally come to an end for Ohio State this Saturday in Madison?
I’m guessing no, mostly because the anchor of OSU’s offensive line — Center Alex Stepanovich — will finally be back from his injury. OSU’s offensive line has been the team’s achilles heel without Stepanovich, but was one of the strong suits with him in there. Plus, Coach Tressel has had two weeks to re-tool the offensive line in general. Finally, Quarterback Craig Krenzel (easily the Buckeyes’s greatest weapon) will be back, healthy, and rested after the bye week.
On the other side of the field, the Wisconsin team that had to hold on to eek one out over pitiful Penn State is dinged up. Both tailback Anthony Davis and receiver Lee Evans allegedly have ankle problems.
A three point spread is usually a pick ’em in the Big Ten (not all that many games are decided by field goals). So I’ll take the Buckeyes to cover here.
#1 OKLAHOMA (-6) VS. (neutral site) #11 TEXAS: Oklahoma has the better coach, the better defense, and the better quarterback. I hope Mack Brown enjoyed his one-week reprieve from the hot seat after beating perennially-overrated Kansas State in Austin. Welcome back to the coals, boys. Gimme the Sooners to cover a measly six point spread.
PENN STATE (+12) AT #20 PURDUE: Do I really have to explain why I’ll take the Boilermakers to cover here? Does anybody remember the last time Penn State actually beat a spread? Besides, the Boilermakers really are all that.
So I got the Panthers, the Noles, the Buckeyes, the Sooners and the Boilermakers. I guess I’m just not much for the underdogs this week.
Hail to a Loud House Saturday Night
