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November 4, 2018

Game for Saturday against VT in Heinz Field has been announced.

3:30 pm. ESPNU coverage.

Here’s the bad.

Pitt’s offense is utterly, completely and without a doubt. Completely one-dimensional.

Pitt’s defense cannot stop a good passing game.

Pitt is still not even bowl-eligible at 5-4.

Now the good.

That single dimension of the offense is really, really good.

Pitt likely doesn’t face another passing offense as good as even Duke’s over the remaining three games.

Pitt is 4-1 in the ACC and alone in first place in the ACC Coastal Division.

I’m not going to get bogged down in the non-con schedule that had Pitt play three top-15 teams. We knew it was brutal going into the season. There was still some level of optimism about what could be. It didn’t happen. Losing all three was always realistic. The fact that Pitt wasn’t even competitive in two of them is what did and still does stick in the craw.

If Pitt had even lost closely in those games, Pitt fans and the national perspective on Pitt might be a little more upbeat. Maybe not by too much given yet another year of losing to UNC, but a little. Pitt fans might at least have been feeling a little more charitable about the program direction after September. After the UNC loss, it was legitimately fair to ask if Pitt was even going to to get back to a 5-7 record.

The point is, now. In November. Pitt has the best chance of any team in the Coastal Division of winning. That is, well, it’s a bit on the crazy side.

Here are the legitimate scenarios for Pitt to win the Coastal with the minimal amount of drama:

3-0 — beating VT, WF and Miami

2-1 — beating VT and either WF or Miami

2-1 — beating WF and Miami, losing to VT; but VT drops one of their last 2 games to UVa or Miami

After that it starts getting messy. Let’s not waste time on scenarios where Pitt gets the Coastal finishing 1-2.

Now, I know there will be some Pitt fans who will try to be contrarians to argue that they don’t want Pitt to end up winning the Coastal this year just to be destroyed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game (along with those who want Narduzzi fired, and fear that any success will prevent that). God, forbid the optics.

Just don’t. Forget the rampant negativity and self-hate for a moment that it represents. No one rational is even thinking Pitt would win. But then, no one would be picking any Coastal team to beat Clemson. Clemson is a playoff team and the best of the ACC by a wide margin.

What needs to be considered are the bowl implications. Want to see Pitt in a decent bowl? They need to get to Charlotte.

No ACC team will be picked for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl. At worst, ND loses a game and they drop out of the Playoff picture to one of those bowls. That means the loser of the ACCCG heads to the Camping World Bowl to face a Big 12 team. Correction. I didn’t read that right. Camping World gets first pick, not simply the loser of the ACCCG. It’s just worked out that way at times.

After that it will be a jumble for one of the four ACC “tier one” bowl slots. Where Pitt is unlikely to get slotted.

If Pitt isn’t in the ACCCG, they will find themselves way down in the bowl tiers. Every ACC Coastal team except UNC will be likely be bowl eligible (6 teams). The ACC Atlantic — even if you take Clemson and ND out of the mix and consider them for the Playoffs — will have at least three teams and perhaps four (BC, Cuse, NCSt and maybe WF). So that’s 9-10 teams with records almost all within a few games of each other.

NC State and either BC or Cuse will likely end up with better overall records then Pitt. Miami or VT are more attractive bowl participants for TV or attendance.

Pitt will be battling for a better bowl slot with Duke and Virginia (and WF?). But that tier is below the Belk, Gator or Music City, Pinstripe and Sun.

We’re talking Military, Independence, Quicklane or even the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl.

[Additional note, in regards to the correction. With Camping World, that’s 5 slots. Pitt’s only chance of getting a tier one bowl starts with going 3-0 in the final three games. At least have the best record in the Coastal and hopefully bring pressure with the ACC to have the Coastal Champ in a tier one bowl.]





3-0 is the only way to go. Guarantees winning the Coastal and should place Pitt into a higher tier bowl game – the key word is should.

We start with game one vs VT. This should be touted as a revenge game as Pitt should have been able to get one yard in four tries at the goal line to win last year.

As Pitt fans, lets expect more – going 3-0 is not asking to much after the pitiful start to the season. And gaining one yard is very doable with this Oline. Finish strong, Pittsburgh Strong!

H2P!

Comment by Erie Express 11.04.18 @ 3:47 pm

I know it’s off topic but may I say just how much I enjoy seeing James Connor in a Steelers uniform?

H2P!!!

Comment by Pitt Dad 11.04.18 @ 4:02 pm

Thanks for the bowl discussion, Chas. First analysis I’ve seen anywhere. Hoping we can scoot into Tier 1 obviously as we’ll otherwise be looking at the 12/21 Lawn Boy Bowel.

Comment by FG 11.05.18 @ 9:16 am

Thanks for the bowl discussion, Chas. First analysis I’ve seen anywhere. Hoping we can scoot into Tier 1 obviously as we’ll otherwise be looking at the 12/21 Lawn Boy Bowl.

Comment by FG 11.05.18 @ 9:19 am

In reading the ACC bowl tie-in info, the bowls get to choose. Losing the championship means nothing. Teams with better records and or cache and or travel history will get the good bowls. Pitt has a chance to go to the Birmingham Bowl, if other conferences don’t get it first.
Sigh

Comment by Caw Miller 11.05.18 @ 12:50 pm

It’s so doable that as a Pitt fan I think it’s impossible.

Comment by Chris 11.05.18 @ 1:07 pm

Pitt is already in a bowl game. Its the Turkey Bowl this week in Pittsburgh. No other bowls matter this week.

Comment by DionJag 11.05.18 @ 1:31 pm

If Pitt were to get into the ACCCG (and that’s a big IF), would it also mean an extra week of practice? That can really help with younger guys (imo). Also, does anyone know how Redshirt designation is handled with regard to conf championship games and bowl games? It the 4 games a hard limit or does it flex depending on how many games a team plays? Just curious.

Comment by CalvinHobbes 11.05.18 @ 2:42 pm

Calvin, Its maximum four games for red shirts. No matter if you play or don’t play in a conference championship game or whether you play or don”t play in a bowl game

Comment by DionJag 11.05.18 @ 2:46 pm

Haven’t read much this season. Curious though, has anyone given Coach Watson blame for Pickett’s poor development?

Seems like Kenny’s throwing motion has gotten much worse. He doesn’t follow through as he did last yr.

Comment by The Grandfather 11.05.18 @ 9:40 pm

I was one of those who at the end of September hoped we would lose out. This was based on the blow-outs and the lose to North Carolina. It appeared at that time that the current Pitt coaching staff needed replaced. A two or three loss record would have forced the AD to at least give serious consideration to making a change.

At this point in the season, nothing can be gained by hoping for losses the remainder of the season. It would reinforce my personal feelings that the coaching staff starting with Narduzzi needs replaced but little else. Even if we do not win another game, Pitt being in its current position atop the Coastal gives the AD enough leverage to fight off anyone wanting a coaching change.

As for bowl speculation, I agree with “DionJag”, Pitt’s next bowl appearance is already on the calendar. It is this Saturday. The game starts at 3:30 PM. It will answer the question if Pitt has really returned to relevance again or will it be a repeat of the 2009 Cincinnati game?

If we win on Saturday (a very big if given Pitt’s history since Sherrill left) then I think Pitt gets seen in a new light. I would even extend that to Narduzzi and his coaching staff. Pitt and Narduzzi can win when a game is critical. If they then win out, at the end of the regular season they will be ranked! I have no doubt about that. Pitt by that time will be viewed as a Phoenix rising from the ashes of September.

If we lose on Saturday but still win the Coastal, then it will be viewed as Pitt stumbling to the division title. The bowl selection committees will pass over us until there are not other options.

Comment by John In South Carolina 11.05.18 @ 10:18 pm

We are good enough to win all 3 but bad enough to lose all 3. My guess is 2 & 1 which looks great compared to where we were a few weeks ago. Yes I will be there Saturday as always.

Comment by Tony in Harrisburg 11.06.18 @ 10:19 am

I would be thrilled with 2-1. It would guarantee a really decent bowl game too.

Comment by Jackagain 11.06.18 @ 5:42 pm

Nothing is guaranteed in life. I’m with Tony regarding his assessment of the current Pitt FB team and their remaining 3 games to this regular season.

Two extra games would be a sweet bonus.

H2P!

Comment by Erie Express 11.06.18 @ 7:36 pm

Beating a LONG dead horse, but you HAVE to win the games you SHOULD. That loss to NC looks worse every week and its like a shiv in the side when you look at how jammed up the Costal is. There’s no shame in losing to PSU, ND, and Central Florida (speaking of teams that get screwed by selection committees…) – those are are really solid teams and two of them are unbeaten. Could have/should/have/would have with Notre Dame, but the other two stomped us. North Carolina has won ONE game. One. There’s your bowl eligibility right there.

I’m pretty confident Pitt beats Wake. I think VT is about 50/50 and Miami maybe 40/60 because it’s away. They get bowl eligible regardless, but there’s a decent chance it will be something like the Sun bowl… or worse. Years of irrelevance have their cost, and Pitt’s been getting shafted for decades in the “post season”, even when they were good.

Speaking of the “post season”, I might be alone, but I would really like to see an undefeated UCF team in the finals. I think they could give Notre Dame fits. I don’t think anyone blows them out except maybe Alabama and Alabama is capable of blowing anyone out on any given day. Alas, there appears to be no scenario that gets them in.

Comment by 55 11.08.18 @ 8:14 am

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