I’ve held off writing/posting anything for a few days, because I really needed to be calmer about things. I also needed to climb out of the “Black Pit of Negative Expectations.”

The BPONE is a state of mind in which no part of a football game is enjoyable because it is merely a prelude to some pratfall made more embarrassing and or painful by whatever minimal, temporary successes are experienced prior to the pratfall.

…

Alcohol will not improve anything but will be consumed in quantity anyway.

At some point repeated defeats will create an OMINPRESENT BLACK PIT of NEGATIVE EXPECTATIONS. OBPONE is a severe condition with consequences such as writer’s block, writer’s block, and writer’s block. The only cure for OBPONE is a new season, but yo-yo-ing in and out of OBPONE makes individual occurrences of BPONE more severe.

This state could also be used to describe almost the entirety of  the Stallings Era.

I definitely entered BPONE early in the UNC game. Seeing how quickly and easily the Pitt D was being shredded was the trigger. My nadir was late in the game, when Pitt finally scored a second half touchdown.

Perfect.
Now for the the negative Pitt fan view. This way when Pitt loses by 3 points, the argument can be made on just how close it was.

— Chas Rich (@ChasRich27) September 22, 2018

Not that I was wrong, mind you. Narduzzi even hit that note in the opening statement following the game.

We did a lot of great things out there today. There was a lot of great plays made, but it’s a game of inches and when you don’t do the little things right, it can come back and get you by another three points.

It’s just that everyone knows that it wasn’t just one thing or one mistake.

“You’re going to have mistakes,” he said, “but one less mistake and you win the football game. That’s all it takes is one. Make one more (play) than you did.”

It makes a nice speech to his players, who probably heard the same thing Sunday before, during and after video review. Really, Narduzzi is right.

Change the result of one bad play, and a three-point defeat could be reversed. The problem Saturday was there was more than one bad play, and if you stack them up, they add up to an 1-1 start in the ACC.

“There are just little things, each play,” Narduzzi said.

Little things that turn into big things.

Here’s the other things. Many of those errors. Those mistakes. They were happening during the week. The coaches didn’t get them cleaned up in the practices. They let them carry over into the game.

Pitt tailback Darrin Hall on some of his team's mental errors today: "We can’t do it in practice. We got foolish penalties throughout the week, and it showed up on gameday."

— Brian Batko (@BrianBatko) September 22, 2018

To watch a team that got rolled by East Carolina. That got beaten soundly by Cal — late scoring made the game look closer. (Not unlike Pitt’s late TD to make it “only” a 3-point loss.) To watch UNC just roll over Pitt on offense. To watch Pitt be helpless against them on defense. That was completely ridiculous.

Head Coach Pat Narduzzi tossed Josh Conklin under the bus for last season’s defense. He stressed how the defense was going to be much better now. And we bought it. Especially since this is year four. These are his players. There are a few seniors that came in with Chryst, but if they are starters that means they are still better then the players that Narduzzi has since recruited and should be ready.

Instead, it was the same as it was the past two seasons. A defense that can’t get off the field. That gets torched on passes. Narduzzi can talk about the mistakes, but they are the same ones seen over and over regardless of the personnel. And now, regardless of the DC.

That puts the focus on the Head Coach. The guy who has a specific defense in mind. Wants it run a certain way. Believes in it to the point of blindness to the fact that it isn’t fucking working; and still won’t change it to fit the players.

It’s all just little mistakes. A player out of position here, a blown assignment there. The system is fine. Nothing wrong. I’m having some real nasty Dave Wannstedt flashbacks. I’m waiting for Narduzzi to bring back “correctable mistakes.”

Then there is the offense.  I won’t pretend to understand how an offense that can look so solid, even creative at times; completely craters in the second half. They suddenly can’t run. The passing game goes no where. How does this happen each and every game?

And yet, that’s not where my aggravation lies with the offense. It is the O-line. Say what you will about Paul Chryst and his tenure at Pitt, but he left the school in amazing shape on the O-line. And Narduzzi benefited for the first two years.

Then came last year as players graduate. The drop-off was noticeable. The O-line became merely adequate in run blocking and lousy in pass protection. OL Coach John Peterson took the fall. A year later, and nothing has changed. If anything, we should be even more nervous. The looming crisis on the O-line for next year with four senior starters (including grad transfer Stefano Millin) departing.

Barring grad transfers or JUCOs, the O-line looks really green for 2019.

The issues on this team is not simply the talent. Or the coaching on game day. It is about the development of the players.

In hiring Narduzzi — and Chryst before him — Pitt chose to hire a head coach from program that has had success over a period due to excellent development of kids who may not grade out as the highest starred recruit, but were well evaluated to fit the program’s system and then developed/coached to play well above their recruiting ranking.

And if you look at Pitt’s recruiting ranking over the past few seasons, they haven’t really varied too much — aside from 2015 when Chryst left for Wisconsin and Narduzzi had to try and salvage the class. Just to give a little history, per Rivals.com, Pitt’s ranking among schools:

• 2009 — 47th
• 2010 — 33d
• 2011 — 58th
• 2012 — 47th
• 2013 — 35th
• 2014 — 44th
• 2015 — 65th
• 2016 — 29th
• 2017 — 38th
• 2018 — 36th
• 2019 — 40th

The concern is, that while recruiting as far as rankings go haven’t changed wildly, the on-the-field results are going down from where Narduzzi started. Which raises a lot of questions about the evaluation of the players recruited and the development of them. That is what is worrying me.

Pitt’s performance against UNC. The way the rest of the schedule suddenly looks really bad for Pitt. It has everyone surprised and wondering. On “The Audible” podcast with Stewart Mandel and Bruce Feldman, they hit on Pitt near the end in their mailbag. Very surprised at Narduzzi struggling. Especially with the defense.

At USA Today, Dan Wolken’s tongue-in-cheek Misery Index included Pitt.

Pittsburgh: The textbook example of how not to be an athletic director was authored last December by Heather Lyke when she gave Pat Narduzzi a seven-year contract for reasons that remain largely unknown. At that point, Lyke was relatively new to the program. Narduzzi was coming off a third year in which the Panthers struggled to a 5-7 record and failed to make a bowl game. Even at the peak of his tenure, the Panthers were an 8-5 team that could occasionally upset someone (like Clemson in 2016). Last fall, his name wasn’t coming up in any coaching searches, meaning Narduzzi had no apparent leverage. So why the long extension? “There’s just a confidence that you know that you have the right leader and he’s gonna build it the right way,” Lyke told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “and you’re doing it together.” They’re also going to suffer the oncoming apathy together because Pitt isn’t very good, the fans know Pitt isn’t very good (they knew it long before Saturday’s 38-35 loss to North Carolina), and as much as they want Narduzzi to be on the hot seat, he’s not going anywhere because of that contract he signed just nine months ago. Meanwhile, North Carolina is 2-9 in its last 11 ACC games with both wins against Pitt.

There were reasons. The contract extension also allocated more money for assistants. Despite the record, there was more optimism in the program overall. The team did get better as the season went on. A starting quarterback was found.

And then there was the relationship between Lyke and Narduzzi. Or rather questions about their relationship. Things whispered about how they didn’t get along. A prime example being Lyke talking about making Heinz Field a little cozier for games by potentially tarping off the the upper-levels and Narduzzi dismissing it out-of-hand. The fact that Narduzzi was not hired by any AD. He was hired by a committee and the Pitt’s Chancellor. The extension was widely viewed as a show that the two of them were on the same page and were comfortable with each other.

The reasons don’t seem as good now that the problems are looming large and a buyout seems unlikely this soon. Especially after all the money shoveled at getting rid of Stallings and hiring Capel for the basketball program.

I have to be honest. I get the questions and even desire to move on from Narduzzi right now. Reasonably certain most of what I’ve typed has hardly been an endorsement of the guy’s work this year (or last).

A lot of his act is starting to wear thin on people. And even I’m getting a bit tired of it. It’s one thing to have a bit of swagger. To run the mouth a little.  It adds a little fun, especially in college football where way to many coaches seem to lack any sense of humor and fun. But, to make catty comments about other programs; and not be able to back up the talk. Well, that’s just some weak shit.

He’s had an advantage no Pitt coach has had over the last 15 years. Thanks to membership in the ACC, Pitt has a fully funded, competitive athletic department. One that will put up the money. Walt Harris, Wannstedt, Graham and Chryst. They didn’t have that. They had to fight for every bit of money from the budget.

Narduzzi has gotten what he wants. More money for assistants. Remodeling lockers. Updating the weight room. Players’ lounge. Its’ been there for the asking. One more factor in why the excuses are so empty.

Yet, I really don’t think firing him after this season is something Pitt should do. It’s not the buyout. It sure as shit isn’t the damn, “Well, Frank Beamer struggled for 5 (or 6, I forget the length) and they stuck with him and then it all came together with unicorns and rainbows…” anecdotal argument.

It is simply that I think Narduzzi needs to go into the 2019 season with the pressure on him, to see what happens. His excuses have worn thin. His talk has been only that. He’s got his players. For better or for worse, this is his program and so far he has done nothing beyond tread water.

He needs to show that he can adjust to the new situation.