I know, it is the topic lately. Whether fans or media. With Travon Woodall healthy, Pitt is surging (Insider subs) with 3 straight wins. They look like a completely different team. The team left for dead as recently as last week now has a pulse.

And so goes all the talk about if Pitt can make the NCAA Tournament.

I do get it. Especially from the media side. It’s a guaranteed read when you talk about the bubble (trust me, the most commented most read stuff I did for NCAA Basketball FanHouse outside of the NCAA Tournament was “bubble” posts). It’s a big reason why you see these discussions happening earlier and earlier.

The importance of the NCAA Tournament and interest in it continues to thrive, and so all talk of who is in or out gets more attention/discussion. And following the Super Bowl on Sunday, you can bet that there will be even more of it.

Now here’s the reality. It’s too soon. It’s all theoretical. Is Pitt on the bubble? Are they outside the bubble? What do they have to do to make the Tournament? There are 8 games left for Pitt plus the Big East Tournament. That goes for all the other teams that you already hear being discussed in terms of “can they get in, get in the conversation, get on the bubble, etc.”

When should bubble talk begin? I say, in about 2 weeks. At that point there are only a small handful of games left and the conference tournaments. Computer numbers (RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy) are all relatively stable and unlikely to fluctuate too far the rest of the way. At that point you can legitimately project who is most likely in. How many spots are left and what teams should be in the discussion for the remaining spots, and what they might be able to do or have happen to others for them to make it.

You cannot do that right now. There are too many teams that still have a shot. That may fall out. Opinions and biases skew the argument too much because solid numbers are not there.

We don’t know for sure which games will be considered bad losses or good wins. We have too many undefined variables to make a really reasonable and logical argument one way or the other.

Right now there is only one formula. It is very is simple. Win.

You can create multiple scenarios by which Pitt gets in, but it still comes down to winning almost all of the remaining games. We do no know how much emphasis the selection committee will place on Woodall’s injury factoring into things. They can’t ignore all the losses without him. The more Pitt wins with Woodall, though, the stronger Pitt’s case will be that it should be more heavily factored into the equation.

So keep winning. Next up, the Pre-Super Bowl game on Sunday against Villanova.