Even before the Cuse-Pitt game ended last night, the usual comments about Pitt were starting. About how Pitt’s regular season play means nothing if they don’t perform in March, or how they don’t perform in March. It was showing up on Twitter and other sites. Typical stuff that happens every year.
If you think this is whining about it, you are mistaken. More of a weary sigh to the repetitiveness. I suppose it is to be expected. Until Pitt actually breaks through to the Final Four, there is going to be this doubt and dismissiveness.
Heck, even when it does happen, the narrative would shift to the fact that Pitt hasn’t won it all (assuming for the sake of argument that when the time comes that Pitt makes the Final Four, they don’t win the whole thing). Think Jim Boeheim and ‘Cuse, Lute Olson at Arizona, Roy Williams during his Kansas tenure. That is just the way these things work.
So, at 1/3 of the way through Big East play, Bob Smizik gets it rolling locally with the typical stuff.
About Pitt, though, we can’t make such a postive projection. The Panthers have no history of winning national basketball championships. In the modern era, they’ve never advanced to a Final Four and only twice have made it to the round of eight.
This is one sweet team to watch. A bunch of guys who know how to play the game and who play it hard all the way. It’s an easy team to like, an easy team for a lot of fans to fall in love with.
But everything I know about college basketball at its highest level tells me this Pitt team is going to break the hearts of its fans again.
Pitt’s NCAA tournament history is littered with losses to lower-seeded team. The Panthers never quite match up to their regular season in the post-season. That’s not an indictment. I don’t consider the Panthers as underachieving in the post season. I see them as overachieving in the regular season.
Pitt is able to ratchet up its intensity for regular-season games to a level most teams can’t match. In the post-season, Pitt is still at that high level, but so are its opponents.
That’s when talent takes over from heart and hustle.
So is it any wonder that the preseason pick to win the Big East, and sits atop the Big East standings, actually is playing the underdog card?
Maybe it’s a byproduct of a coach who fought his own doubters, or maybe it’s because many of the Panthers weren’t been highly touted recruits. Whatever the reason, these Panthers have embraced an underdog role for most of Jamie Dixon tenure, even when they aren’t underrated or under-regarded.
“I don’t think people forgot about us,” Brown said. “Maybe they doubted us.”
That mindset has been effective, even when it’s unwarranted. The Panthers of DeJuan Blair and Sam Young would act that role despite being ranked No. 1 and getting a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Therein lies the perceived slight. Though Brown didn’t implicitly say it, but that “strong run” some believe Pitt isn’t capable of means it will again make an early NCAA Tournament exit.
Something that is easily forgotten. Pitt hasn’t won the regular season Big East title since 2004. All those runs to the Big East Tournament Championship game, tends to blur that.
Pitt finished seventh, fifth, fourth and second three times between 2004-05 and last season. Dixon has an excellent chance to get back to the top after a 74-66 victory Monday night against previously undefeated Syracuse.
Pitt (18-1, 6-0) is alone on top of the Big East standings, and the Panthers have an opportunity to extend their lead over the next two weeks as the schedule eases a bit.
Pitt’s next three games are against DePaul (6-11, 0-5), Notre Dame (14-4, 3-3) and Rutgers (10-7, 1-4). Before games Tuesday night, DePaul and Rutgers had one victory between them in Big East play. Notre Dame is ranked No. 16, but the Fighting Irish have lost three of their past five entering a game tonight against Cincinnati. Plus, the Notre Dame game is at Petersen Events Center, where the Panthers have won 51 of their past 52 games.
Given Pitt was a top pick in the conference, the schedule is back-loaded and Pitt finishes its final 8 games of the season with 5 road games which includes WVU, ‘Nova, St. John’s and Louisville. There is no other way to say it, February will be brutal. Piling up the wins now is essential.
One other basketball note. Basketball Prospectus does its per-possession look at teams in each conference.
Big East: Repeat after me — Pitt has a very good offense
W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM 1. Pitt 6-0 66.0 1.19 1.01 +0.18 2. Villanova 4-1 67.7 1.13 0.98 +0.15 3. Syracuse 5-1 65.6 1.07 0.95 +0.12 4. Marquette 3-2 65.7 1.16 1.08 +0.08 5. West Virginia 3-2 66.3 1.12 1.05 +0.07 6. Connecticut 4-2 63.6 1.05 0.99 +0.06 7. Louisville 3-1 70.3 1.08 1.03 +0.05 8. Cincinnati 3-2 65.0 1.02 0.98 +0.04 9. St. John's 4-2 66.1 1.01 1.01 0.00 10. Georgetown 2-4 61.9 1.05 1.10 -0.05 11. Notre Dame 3-3 65.5 0.98 1.04 -0.06 12. S. Florida 1-5 64.7 1.03 1.12 -0.09 13. Rutgers 1-4 64.9 1.03 1.13 -0.10 14. Seton Hall 2-4 66.8 0.89 1.00 -0.11 15. Providence 0-6 71.8 0.99 1.13 -0.14 16. DePaul 0-5 68.1 0.97 1.14 -0.17 AVG. 66.3 1.05How good a program has Jamie Dixon built at Pitt? Last year the Panthers were young and raw — and went 13-5. They were over-seeded as a 3, but that’s kind of my point. When the floor for your program is a 3-seed, you are in a happy place.
The good news is that the defense has been getting better, without great expense to the offense.
This is the deepest and best Pitt team in recent memory. They have to continue to take each game one at a time and the W’s will continue to pile up.
Right now this team is playing like a legit 1 seed, again it’s a bit early but I really like our chances come March.
Pitt is playing terrific basketball right now and I hope they can get the 1 in the East that would be huge.
I remember 3-4yrs ago being frustrated Pitt was always under-seeded and played too far away. Last few years we’ve arguably (other than ’08-’09) been over-seeded. So expectations seem to be a bit our of whack with this program. Still, this will be 10yrs straight in the tourny and we’ve yet to over-achieve.
Im optimistic because:
-> Defense: while our D is having a down year, we’re still in the top 35 nationally for defensive efficiency. Dixon was doing a good bit of experimenting with the rotation and offensive schemes/pacing earlier in the season, letting other teams score a little more frequently than they otherwise would have. Better yet, I believe we’ve incrementally been improving since BE play.
-> FTs: our free throw shooting is bad, but improving historically over past seasons and so far over the course of this year. I’m not as worried about it losing us a game as I once was. Team shooting may be poor, but that’s less relevant than the individual shooting performances in end game scenarios, and we’ve got decent guys for this. Besides, people seem to forget that you can offset to a degree poor free throw shooting with great rebounding (generally and off missed free throws), which we’ve always done. Also, a few guys (Gary esp) seem to be taking it a little more seriously which may mean trending improvement over the rest of the season.
-> Depth: we are deeper than ever at every single position. Foul trouble, which has hurt us in past tourny games reffed by ACC-type crews, has not been an issue once this year. We’ve had games where two starters fouled out in close contests – yet no drop when subs came in. I think we’re good here — only minor concern is a few guys seem to get too worked up about bad calls (looking at you Gil).
-> Versatiliy: similarly, depth has translated in to termendous versatility. We’ve run in to poor match ups in tournys past, but we should be able to find a rotation that works against almost anyone this year. Worst match up so far was against a long an athletic team, esp when it was a strong front court (see Tenn), but we played a similar team in ‘Cuse and it was obvious to me by the 2nd half we figured out how to deal with (if not contain) such a team. This is better dynamism than I recall in the past.
-> history and odds: Its been said before but only in a very few freak occurences have coaches either been to the final 4 or won nat’l tiles within their first decade of head coaching. This makes sense. Dixon’s done a lot of thinigs earlier in his career than Calhoun/Boeheim/Coach K/etc. This may be another one of those things.
-> Experience: 6 current guys played on the ’08-’09 team. Some had meaningful minutes (esp Brad, Gil and Gary, though the latter played terribly). Nas and Gibbs seem un-rattle-able. That has to count for something.
-> Each of the X factors on our team has shown improvement. Gil is more consistent. Taylor is showing more prowess on defense. Gary’s shooting free throws better-ish. Woodall has been down right reliable. Its trending in the right direction.
Of course, there’s a long way to go. Obviously I have some time to kill here so there you have it.
This is why I am excited about the offensive stats so far. This could be the missing piece of the puzzle to overcome officiating in the post-season.
HTscriptP
btw – lets hope it lasts thru early April!
if gil is playing/shooting well and getting to the hoop this team is extremely dangerous…
plus… this team has EXCELLENT fast break and spot shooting capability (#1 offensive efficiency in country) so we can put up poitns versus some of the early 50 poitn scoring pitt teams that struggled in march
i) rebounding: the current team is, so far, rebounding better than that team (despite Blair).
ii) scoring: we don’t have a Sam Young like scorer, but we’re not far off.
–> top scorers: Sam had 19.2 ppg. Gibbs has 16.0. Not that big a difference. and no one on that team was an assissin like Gibbs.
–> We also have more scorers. Both teams had/have 3 guys scoring +10ppg. But this year we have 7 guys scoring over 6.5ppg. ’08-’09 we had only 4 guys doing that.
–> we’ve got better shooters, w higher %s in both FG and 3pts.
–> and of course we have more assists because we have more points and more guys that can score (same # of TOs per game coincidentally, so our assist:TO ratio is better).
I don’t think there is anything that team did better than this team does. Individuals, maybe.
What I think that means is that we are just more dynamic. If a few guys go cold/fouls out, we’re far from screwed. We’ve got far better subs this year then we did then.
Also, this year we’re taller at each position — for whatever that’s worth.
Boeheim’s first Final Four came in his eleventh year at Syracuse in 1986-87. His title came in 2002-03. Calhoun broke through in his 13th year with both.
It’s basically 7 guys, the starters plus Woodall & Taylor. Patterson, Zanna, & Moore are all getting less & less minutes every game, with Moore being on the pines for some of them. So unless one of these guys of the 3 emerge we have basically 7 players. That’s not really deep. And Taylor is subject to picking up lots of quick fouls which limits his minutes.
While it is great being in first place and all that, it is imperative that we try to get one or two of these other bench players more minutes and experience for the NCAA’s. Or I foresee another Sweet 16 early exit. Especially with the way the Selection Committee has a habit of matching us up with bad matchups. (ie. small tradition rich Catholic schools)
The Blair/Young team was better as of now, this years team can still improve, especially the bench, guys like Taylor, Moore & Zanna have tremendous upside.
That noted, we had a First Team All-American center Blair on that team who should have been a lottery pick who led the nation in rebounding and an All-Big East 1rst team forward Young who was an NBA pick and is currently playing in the NBA and an All-BigEast point guard Fields. And that team had a defensive stopper in Dixon, plus Gibbs, Wannamaker, Gil Brown & McGhee off the bench.
Unless the current team really steps it up and the bench improves a lot,,,,,but hey we’ll wait and see. Hope they do become better, as that should mean we get to the Final 4. HTP !
The 08-09 team with Blair and Young was better than this team’s starting 5 for sure. The two teams were equivalent defensively, but this years team has been improving steadily on that end.
However, the bench in 2008-2009 was not nearly as good as this year’s bench. That makes a difference in the second week of the tournament. A player like Tra Woodall, Dante Taylor, Talib Zanna, or Lamar Patterson might be able to help Pitt win a game in March. The 2008 team got absolutely nothing from the bench in the tournament. The starters were playing nearly the entire game.
Additionally, this team has not scored less than 1.06 PPP all year. The 2008 team had three instances through the first 19 games where they scored under 1 PPP.
The 2008 team only had one player make more than 50 three-pointers (Sam Young at 54) all season and he was 37% accurate. No other player on that team shot better than 34% with over 25 threes besides Gibbs (36 threes at 44% accuracy) and he was a marginal contributor.
Ashton Gibbs already has 58 made threes at an accuracy of 44%. Brown is on pace for approximately 50 threes and is shooting 41%. Wannamaker is selective, but shoots at 40% from three. Travon is less accurate, but on pace for about 30 threes at 33%. This team is much better from distance.
Finally, the 2008 team collected 42% of their missed shots. This years team is collecting 45% of their missed shots.
Based on some of the more important offensive metrics, this years team is further ahead of the 2008 team than one would think.
Of course, we’ve never lost to a team that even went on to play in the nat’l championship, so the dominant teams has never been our issue. Half of our losses were to final 4 teams, the other half to some wiley opponent we didn’t match up well with. Those teams are out there, but it does seem the general landscape is less dangerous than many previous years (esp ’08-’09).
Definitely the offense is good enough, but can the offense and defense both be good enough on the same night?
I’m waiting to see how we do against a team that has a solid, balanced scoring attack. We’ve really only seen two teams that are both good and balanced on offense(‘Cuse & Tenn.), both of whom gave us all or more than we could take. Would be even better to see how we do against a team like that on the road. That type of game will be the real test of how far we can go. Feb 12th against ‘Nova will tell us lots.
Until then…great to be a Pitt fan.
Another point that isn’t necessarily seen in the defensive statistics that Omar pointed out is that Fields was a huge liability on defense. I don’t mean to diminish him as a player because he was a terrific offensive point guard, but we can match up with a variety of different teams/offensive styles because of our length and depth which wasn’t true of the 08 squad. Perhaps we don’t have that “lock down” defender that Dixon was, but we also are much stronger across the board as far as individual defenders go.
If we get a #1 seed, I am prepared to say yes, this team has a better chance than the 08 09 squad to get to the Final 4 because competition is worse this year. But there is a long way to go before I think the comparison is fully eligible.
The 1987-88 Pitt team was the most talent laden. That team should have won a national championship. This year’s team has a chance to win one. I am not worried about the poll rankings, or Duke, or ACC referees, or what Bob Smizik complains about. Neither is Jamie Dixon or his team.
1) We’re playing in Cleveland for the first two games(book us for S16)
2) NCAA, as a whole, is down (not many GTGs as usual). Aside from a guard heavy teams raining 3s, I’m not worried about any team in the country. 2008/2009 was a monster talent year…that team would dominate this year based solely on lack of quality teams.
3) Team Rebounding is MILES ahead of previous Pitt teams. As long as we stay efficient and get our garbage points, we can survive an off-shooting night in the 6 game run.
4) We can score from multiple schemes and formations; thanks to Gibbs’ range, Wanny’s attacking style, and Nasir’s high basketball IQ…we are versatile as heck on offense.
5) Karma is on our side; Damnit, we are due.
Here are some of my fears for March…
1) Low Team FT%…if we shoot 70% or greater, we will be tough to beat; below that and look out for tightly called games and hack a shaq games …
that could cause a premature exit.
2) Gilbert never metamorphisize into the monster GTG in ONE of the games in the tourney (He needs to have ONE monster game when Wanny has his game where he goes MIA and/or Gibbs has a game where he is stymied). To me, I hope he has a game in the E8 to bust a nut from 5 YEARS of frustration and underachieving.
3) Our depth gets squirelly in the 2nd rounds when the competition is tougher…Taylor, Woodall, Zanna, and Moore…will they have stone hands, poor defense, and ill-advised plays? Probably the biggest things we need from backups is defense from Taylor and ballhandling from Woodall.
4) Injuries– lots of time before March…
5) Perimeter defense; basically, we have to prevent the games in the tourney where we give up tons of points from beyond the arc. We’re getting better on defense, but we need to get better.
I won’t ever give up hoping, though!
To me, the main argument for “this is the year” is the level of nationwide competition. The 08-09 team was star-laden and had fantastic synergy, but foul trouble and off-nights by individuals were dooming. This year we don’t have the big scorer that wins 4+ games in the NCAA, but we have 2-4 guys who can drop 15 in the flow of the game. Dixon runs so many fresh bodies onto the court he’s almost Ron Everhart. We’re a tough match-up, and the scouting report is probably a long read.
I said it in another post but the eye test is always the most true – who is better than the Panthers right now? I watch a fair amount of college b-ball and outside OSU and Duke not many teams can handle what we can throw at them. In the nine previous years I can never remember thinking “We got this”, this year I do. Alas, anything can happen in the tourney but we could literally stumble into the Sweet16. Final Four this year is not a high hope, its right on cue, and we should not feel like poor fans to expect our team to achieve what we feel is obtainable. But for now lets plow through the BE and win the regular season.
HTP
and Jamie Dixon getting offered the Lakers job shortly after when the Zen Master retires, turns it down, and NOONE ever brings up this ridiculous horseshit about not making a FF or winning the big one!!
How great would that be?
Maybe the Karma Gods will shine on these young men…and Coach JD…
Three of the key bench players on the 08-09 team are starters on this team now. And two years ago we talked about how the team had decent depth and the team was fairly recognized for that. We went 8 deep on that team. And plenty of people on this forum were also spending a lot of time whining that Gilbert Brown, who was the sixth man, should start. Also, every great team with a great center in the middle or prolific scorer is always one foul-out away from being in trouble. But we had one of each on that team, plus a sure-handed point guard. I love both teams and actually prefer this current team’s ball movement and chemistry. The next few weeks are going to be great.
Intangibles…it will come down to that, and a little bit of luck. Did anyone really believe that Butler was the #2 team in the country last year? The Bulldogs had a few decent three-point shooters, and they stepped up their “D” and their confidence with each game.
If we can make it past the Sweet 16, it could considerably boost our confidence enough to break through the ceiling. We have the talent; we just need to catch the right wave and ride it.
I think the stats show that the 2010-2011 Pitt team can end up better than 2008-2009. Right now 2010-2011 has a higher KenPom rating than 2008-2009.
Also, stats seem to suggest 2010-2011 team has more playmakers and better offensive players at the top.
2008-2009, Levance led Big East in Assist-Rate at 38.0 next highest was Wanny at 31 at 18.0 then Jermaine Dixon at 50 with 13.7. This Wanny at 3rd in the BE at 33.3 year and Woodall at 9th with 30.0, Gil at 25 with 20.9 and Ashton at 26 with 20.5.
Offensive rating wise Ashton is the same as Blair, Wanny and Gil Brown are a bit better than Fields who was second on the team. And to my surprise Gary McGhee is higher than the rest of the team including Sam Young. Travon Woodall has the same rating as Biggs (who was 3rd in 08-09) and is higher than Sam Young’s.
I guess we’ll agree to disagree.
Pitt hasn’t made a run in March. Pitt wears itself out in the BET.
If it is all about a deep run in March…is Marquette looked at as a better program than Pitt. Seriously. They made a final four run going on 8 years ago. Have been to the tournament sporadically since…winning maybe one or two games in those appearances. I know, I know…Al and the 70s…history….But I don’t see it. Or how about Maryland. They won a title 10 years ago but have been back only a couple of times since…are they better than Pitt?
The most glaring example of a Pitt guy getting his ass handed to him on an individual, break down level was Scotty Hopson ripping up Gilbert earlier this year. Brown’s a great athlete but Hopson tore him a new one.
The most important statistic is beating good teams. We are looking at aggregated stats from 08-09 for an entire season. This year’s team still needs to run the Gauntlet through ‘Nova(2x), L’Ville, and WVU(2x), not to mention conference tournament and NCAAs. All fields are weaker now, so hopefully we can keep up or surpass our current levels.
Long way to go this season before we can say definitively who was a better team. Obviously ’08-’09 accomplished more, and even comparing the teams at this similar points in the season, ’08-’09 was more potent.
But one key thing is I think this team has a more room/capability to improve than the ’08-’09. By this point in that season, I think we knew what we had in ’09. I think there are a number of areas where the current team hasn’t peaked yet — maybe another gear for Brown and/or Taylor, some defensive adjustments, maybe a better idea how to optimize our rotation. Still, LOTS left to prove.
Fields and Gibbs are not good or solid defenders. They are below average defenders that get beat off the dribble leading to help defense and missed rotations. Levance Fields was one of the top 1 or 2 offensive point guards in college basketball. Defensively he was very mediocre. Missing conditioning because of two surgeries on the foot hurt.
Gibbs just isn’t a great defender. He is an A+ shooter, an above average ball handler, but average or below in most other things. Doesn’t matter as long as he plays his game. Players shouldn’t do things that are out of their circle of competence. McGhee is a perfect example. He always plays within himself.
Neither Gibbs or Fields really ever get broken down off the dribble that much. Watch the games. It doesn’t happen to them any more than anyone else. The level of competition is rarely so talented that they can be exploited off the dribble. Plus they are smart, understand their limitations and don’t take risks. That’s why their steal numbers are low. No one is calling them defensive superstars or more than average. But neither was/is a liability that compromises team defense because of the notion that they are getting their ankles broken by their man. It’s sounds basketbally clever to claim that, but that’s not what happens and it’s not why we lose games.
Dominic James, Kyle Lowry, AJ Price, Scottie Reynolds, Chris Wright, Kemba Walker, Deota Vaughn, Tory Jackson, Darren Collison, and Jonny Flynn all beg to differ on your assessment of our two most recent starting point guards defense of dribble penetration.
But that game, especially defensively, showed that we need to learn how to defend a team that has a multitude of good offensive weapons. Fortunately against Cuse, Pitt’s offense was so hot that first 9 minutes (and again later) and Cuse’s shooting so cold for long stretches, it didn’t matter.
There was noone that could replace what Fields did offensively (esp passing), during any game, so whatever we lost on D (not too too much, btw) was worth it. This team, most nights we can’t really replace what Gibbs does either. But, there will be nights where if Gibbs may not be hot shooting and someone else is, and if D is needed Gibb’s is momre replaceable. Dixon it seems is still tinkering with rotations to see what works when. He’s good at it (better this year with adjustment than in the past, is my impression) and this team gives him the ability to adapt better than the ’08-’09 team.
This year, everybody does (or can do) everything well. For ’08-’09, the roles seemed more defined and rigid and so when things went south there wasnt much that could be done. Not so with this team.
I agree with about 95% of your hoops analysis on here. But I watch every game twice. Usually live, then again on DVR- usually after reading post game comments here. Some things, like you may consider conventional wisdom, aren’t in fact what they are. This is one of them.
We need a bit of work against the press and Gibbs needs to work on his shooting form when his legs are tired.Other than that,we are good to go! Bring em all on!