The more observant reader might have read the fine print under the title of this post and said to themselves “who the hell is Pabs and what did he do with Chas?” No worries, I assure you that Chas is fine; all charges were dropped after he had a change of heart and allowed me to start posting.
Anyway, welcome to Pitt by Numbers where we will take a look at Pitt basketball through the lens of tempo-free statistical analysis. Most of my data will gathered from Ken Pomeroy’s excellent website but if you know of any other places that provide great data like kenpom.com please let me know.
Today Pitt faces off against Tennessee at the Consol Energy Center (3:15pm, ESPN) so here’s a quick and dirty preview of things to look for in Pitt’s matchup with the Vols.
Pitt’s depth will be tested – We’ve all gushed about how this is Jamie Dixon’s deepest squad yet. Today will be the bench’s biggest test as the Vols do a better job than just about anybody in the nation at getting the other team in foul trouble. Tennessee shoots and absurd .59 free throws for every field goal attempt which is the most in the nation by a comfortable margin.
Also Tennessee has always historically played more of a transition game than Pitt and will probably look to try to lure Pitt into a making this game a track meet which will test Pitt’s fitness. Jamie Dixon will have to use his bench effectively to offset Tennessee’s ability to both run and get teams in foul trouble.
Guard play can lose this game, but it won’t win it – Pitt usually plays low turnover games. The Panthers rank 39th in taking care of the basketball and 234th in forcing turnovers (calculated by % of possessions that end in a turnover). Tennessee is very average in both statistics ranking 196th offensively and 141st defensively (there are 345 teams playing D1 hoops). Neither team looks like they are in a position to exploit the other in the turnover battle.
The Vols don’t rely on their guards for a lot of offense as 57% of their possessions are run through either 6’7” Scotty Hopson or 6’8” Tobias Harris. The Vols rank 303rd in 3-pt field goal frequency (3-pt attempts/FG attempts) which would make them poor candidates to exploit Pitt’s 206th ranked 3-pt FG defense.
What Tennessee does do very well is defend the perimeter as they rank 40th in 3-pt FG defense so Ashton Gibbs could be in for a long day today. Up and down the line it doesn’t appear as if either team is well equipped to exploit the other team’s perimeter weaknesses.
Will the Panthers continue to dominate the boards? – The Panther’s rebounding statistics have been downright silly through the first ten games this year. The Panther’s have grabbed 48.5% (1st in the nation) of all of their misses and 73.5% (20th in the nation) of their opponents misses. This obliterates the respective national averages of 32.8% and 67.2%. Tennessee will present a tremendous challenge on the glass for Pitt. Tennessee grabs 40.7% of their available offensive rebounds and 71.6% of their available defensive rebounds.
Tennessee will bring a size advantage into this game. They rank 40th in effective height (height of players who play significant minutes weighted against the national average height on a position by position basis). Pitt ranks 118th at 1.6” shorter across the board than Tennessee.
Because both teams rely on dominating the boards and neither team holds a distinct exploitable advantage anywhere else on the court, it isn’t hyperbole to say that rebounding is the key to winning today’s game.
Pomeroy has Pitt winning this game 83% of the time and predicts a 75-65 Pitt win. At the end of the day I think Pitt wins because they are a slightly better shooting team and they had the distinct advantage of sleeping in their own beds last night.
That said, if the Panthers don’t play their style game then Tennessee is in a very good position to take advantage and leave Steel City with a victory. All in all it will be a very interesting strength on strength matchup that I can’t wait to watch…if for no other reason than to take my mind off Pitt football. Hail to stats and Hail to Pitt.
He’s got a lot of experience coaching WR’s and we have some good ones in the wings, like Todd Thomas, Devin Street, the other 6’4″ kid we redshirted who played in the Big 33 game. Plus Shanahan returning and the two TE’s who transferred from UVA & Illinois plus Cruz.
Plus since he’s been with Texas Tech & Houston he must have some contacts in Texas, which would help in recruiting that state with TCU coming in.
Hey if he can actually get this team to run a screen pass properly and it actually gains yardage, I’ll be happy 🙂
He is so hot…….
I guess the first thing I would ask, what is a “big” game. Only the NCAA Tourney?? Only the Big East tourney?? Only regular season against BCS type conferences?? Only against Syracuse,UCONN,GTOWN, Villanova and West Virginia?? Only if and when they play Duke, N.Carolina, Kansas or Kentucky??????
Well, lets hit the big dance first. Are you considering, only the last lost as a “big game”?? Because everyone in the country, except the Champion and consolation winner lose their last game. So, yes, he has lost his last game the last 7 years, as have 349 other Div. 1 coaches, two finish with a win.
I wish, as much as everyone else, that Pitt gets a final four and a NC, and I am as disappoointed as anyone when we’ve been knocked out. However, unlike football, where there are 120 div 1 teams, there are 351 Div 1 basketball schools. Gettin to the tournament still means something, allthough they were going to try to water it down going to 98. Half the teams go to bowl games, only 1/7 get to go to the tournament, it still means something to get to the NCAA tourney.
If you are only going to consider Tourney games, fair enough, but, then you must count the tourney wins, no matter who. So, Jamie Dixon is about 11-7 in tourney games. Seems pretty good to me.
If talking about the BE tourney. Jamie is 11 and 5 with a championship. Surely, those were big games and big wins against Villanova, Gtown, Marquette twice, Louisville 3 times etc. etc.. Or, don’t they count as “big games”??
Conference play???? Most, would consider these “big games” against, arguably, our top 5 rivals, and also, top BE teams.
Syracuse, he is 8-1, yes, 8-1!!! He owns them. Surely some of those were biggies????
UCONN, he is 6-4, pretty good against a perennial power. Some of those had to be big wins, no???
Georgetown, 4-3, better than .500. I remember some those, some of those were huge!!! Maybe I’m wrong??
Villanova, yes, crushing defeat in Elite Eight, but, 4-3 against the Wildcats, I also remember quite a few of them being kinda big.
WVU, Ah, the hated rival, 8-5, most would consider everyone of those “big” wins against the arch rival. No????
How bout’ non conference teams from BCS type conferences???
Has lost to Texas, Indiana and Wisconsin, there is no denying that.
He has also beaten, mind you, I’m not saying they are all huge, just to give you an idea of non-conference play, some years, some of them stunk, but, lest we forget some good wins,
Alabama
Florida St 3 times
Georgia
Memphis embarrassed them, top 20 program
S.Carolina twice
Auburn twice
Wisconsin about #13 at the time
Duke nothing needs to be said.
Washington twice, once a top 20 team, once
a top 10 team, and beat them all
the way out in Seattle, a nasty
gym to play in.
Oklahoma St. top 10 team
Washington St.
Texas Tech
Maryland
Texas
Penn St 3 times, I know they stink, but, had we lost to them and gave them bragging rights, would have been big. They are in a top conference though, so, they get considered.
Duquesne 7 times. same as PSU, but, had we lost to the city rivals, he would have heard how big a game it is.
So, I beg to differ with those that state otherwise, Jamie Dixon has nothing to apologize for, he actually is an excellent big game coach, has quite a collection of “Big Wins” against quite a few of the naional powers. No, we haven’t gotten to the final four yet, hopefully we do down the road, but, from when I remember 15 years ago, if someone would have told me the Pitt program would go to 10 straight NCAA tourneys, Elite Eight, Sweet 16’s, win the Big East and have lots of memorable wins against Syracuse, G-town, Villanova, UCONN, WVU, Duke, Wisconsin, Memphis, Washington (2), Ok. State, no one would have ever believed it.
No, Jaimie Dixon is a big time coach, with big time wins, and here’s to many more in the future.
p.s. Allthough not really “rivals”, seem to remember some great wins against Marquette and Louisville, on national tv, that a lot of people would consider “big games”.
p.s.s. If you’re only considering wins against the “big four”, N.Car. Duke Kansas and Kentucky, he is 1-0
I’m not sure who’s bitching about JD. If anyone is just ignore them for they are without a clue.
“They landed the first punch and we didn’t respond well. They were prepared for us. They came out aggressive from the start and we didn’t. We tried to make a run, but they kept making smart plays.”
The Panthers got off to their typical-of-this-season-so-far slow start. This time, they couldn’t get a team to panic when they decided to clamp down, and it cost them. Tennessee played a great game, and Pearl did a great coaching job.
Jamie is a great coach too. He’ll use this game to teach a lot of lessons that will pay off in BE play and beyond. Like I said before the season started, I hope we – the team and the fans – take the Izzo/Michigan State approach to the season: View every loss as a stepping stone to be ready and focused for tournament play.
College basketball is totally different than football for one reason – The Dance. Like Dan 72 said, 3 or 4 losses like that one better prepare a team mentally for the tourney, because they expose your weaknesses. Pitt’s were exposed pretty well on Saturday. Plenty of time to clean things up.
Today’s Noo Yawk Times is carrying a story about the risks of hiring football coaches without head coaching experience. There have been winners and losers. The Times points out that many of today’s best coaches have come from head coaching jobs at smaller programs: Tressel//Youngstown State and Saban at Toledo. Fulmer, Bob Stoops and Larry Coker never held head coach positions. O.K. so why am I going through all of this….well, Florida, clearly one of the top college programs has just hired Texas Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp a very successful assistant who will now need an offensive coordinator……yep, Dana Holgorsen would be a logical hire for Muschamp. Florida has deep pocket$ when it come to paying coache$. Stevie boy should have had a list of options well researched in order to make a move following the dumping of Wanny. I am not saying that Holgorsen is the best choice, however, it seem logical that whomever is picked it had better happen soon because our options could well be limited by Pitt’s failure to pay the big $$$ to attract a real winner to Yinzer Country.
Pitt cooperated for him, didn’t help that opposing cupcake coaches were heaping praise on the Panthers, like putting them in final four. Pitt played a horrible game and got smacked in the face early. Very unusual to see Pitt get killed backdoor, off the glass, in transition.
Pearl is a piece of work, the opposite of what you’d expect. Like Dixon he preaches team and selflessness but unlike Dixon he doesn’t practice what he preaches. For starters he lied to NCAA, many schools would terminate him on that alone. He’s an addict for attention. When he and his long-term wife split he married a young hot girl and in the media he called his new wife the love of his life. Nice put down of his first wife, the mother of his 4 kids. When he got his contract extended and bought a magnificent home he flaunted his wealth with a televised tour of his home, because he wants people to know he’s a celebrity. Can you imagine any Pittsburgh coach doing that? The most revered coaches I know are or were very humble men and women.
A loss like this was necessary to help everybody get their expectations back in line. Pitt’s got a nice team and should challenge for a BE championship. Top 10 maybe, Top 15 definitely.
Luckily, there aren’t many guards as strong as Goins around. He manhandled Gibbs.
And this isn’t one of Dixon’s best defensive teams. Taylor’s a terrible defender and Gibbs has trouble staying in front of anybody and there isn’t one glove guy to stick on the opponent’s scorer.
Not bad to get clobbered early by a good team that played a great game. Brings everybody back to reality. Can’t wait for the BE to start. The league’s going to be better than I thought — should be a fun year.
Here is the ladies man – ooh la la.