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March 12, 2010

Concerned About Seeding

Filed under: Basketball,Uncategorized — Chas @ 11:42 am

At the end of last night’s liveblog, there was the frustrated angst of how Pitt had played itself out of a 3 and even a 4 seed. I’m not buying it given the field and how weak it really is after the first couple of lines. If Pitt gets bumped to the four line, it will have more to do with geography, the number of Big East teams in the field and a sense of interchangeability between a lot of teams.

Still, if you are so inclined to worry, here are the teams you should be cheering to win today:

  • San Diego State (over New Mexico)
  • Northwestern (over Purdue)
  • Kansas State (over Baylor)
  • Minnesota (over Michigan State)
  • Ole Miss (over Tennessee)
  • St. Bonaventure (over Temple)
  • Georgia (over Vanderbilt)
  • Georgia Tech (over Maryland)




What’s to be concerned about? I can’t see this team any better that the Sweet 16 regardless of seeding. But that’s OK. These guys played above their heads all season long and get a big thumbs up from me.

With Jamie coaching, I know that the program will remain strong for the near future.

Comment by Chuck Morris 03.12.10 @ 12:16 pm

I’m not that inclined to worry, but I can’t see them getting a number 3 seed, I really tink they will get a weak 4 or strong 5.

They have some great quality road wins but they have lost to some questionable teams and the ND blowout will hurt.

Again, seeding is nice, but it all boils down to match ups and style of play when you go into the tournament.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Pitt goes to the sweet 16 or further and I would not be surprised if they lose their opening game.

That’s why they call it “March Madness”!!!!

Comment by Wlat Radio and the Big Beat 03.12.10 @ 12:22 pm

its hard to get any favorable matchups as a 4 seed. a 3 would be very nice but i just dont see it happening. we were ranked 16th for a reason

Comment by Tony Cancilla 03.12.10 @ 12:36 pm

sorry, i know this is unrelated but i had to share it here. i think you will all enjoy it. check out this hilarious video of big east fans shot outside MSG this week: link to youtube.com

Comment by Pete W 03.12.10 @ 12:51 pm

A couple other close to home games to add to Chas’ list on teams to root for:

Marquette to beat Georgetown
WVU to beat Notre Dame, then win the BE Tourney

The first result simply takes away any momentum G’Town might have to jump Pitt for the “eye-test” folks. The second result probably gives a slight bump to Pitt’s RPI.

Pitt’s RPI is now at 15 (after last night’s loss).

Comment by Pantherman13 03.12.10 @ 12:54 pm

i can never root for WVU to win the BE tourny, even if it gives pitt a better seed. I hope ND, as much as i dislike them as well, to beat ND.

Comment by mike 03.12.10 @ 1:13 pm

Mike – when I typed my previous post, I meant to add a sentiment similar to yours but hit “Submit” too quickly. I also find it impossible to root for WVU, even when I know it’s better for Pitt and/or the conference. The best I can do is acknowledge that it would be best if they won, then turn off the TV and refuse to watch…

Comment by Pantherman13 03.12.10 @ 1:49 pm

Rooting for WVU?

Sacrilege!!!!!!

Never in a million years!!!!

Even if the TV is off.

Comment by WLAT Radio and the Big Beat 03.12.10 @ 2:53 pm

With regard to the Double Bye, I can’t explain why three of the four DB teams got beat and the fourth DB team nearly lost. The common thread, of course, was the DB. But I know that during the regular season if Pitt had a Wednesday game and then had to turn around at play a ranked team the next night that was coming off of a 4-day rest, I’d be yelling, “Hey that’s not fair! Pitt will be somewhat sore and tired while the ranked team will have fresh legs!” Given the choice, I would rather be the rested team.

Comment by BigGuy 03.12.10 @ 3:26 pm

Hate to remind folks, but I recall many of us rooting for WVU to beat Nova last Saturday so Pitt would get the 2-seed in the BET. That sure backfired, so I won’t get caught in that sacrilege again.

Pantherman13: If ND beats WVU in an ugly game like last night, Marquette beats G’town and also ND for the championship, wouldn’t that help both Pitt’s RPI and our eye test? Just curious because I of all scenarios, that’s the easiest to stomach.

Comment by TampaT 03.12.10 @ 3:35 pm

Ugly wins/losses don’t affect the RPI, which is based solely on wins and losses (as opposed to Pomeroy, which takes into account margin of victory). If I remember correctly, 50% of RPI is based on your opponents wins/losses, and 25% is based on your opponents’ opponents wins/losses. Generally speaking, the winner of the Marquette/G’town game shouldn’t affect Pitt’s RPI, since Pitt played each of them one time. My premise that WVU winning the BE Tourney would be better for Pitt’s RPI was based on the fact that we played them twice, and therefore, the part of our RPI based on opponents record would get double credit for the WVU wins. What I failed to recognize earlier is that since we have now played Notre Dame twice, we would also get the same benefit from their wins. Assuming my read of the RPI is correct, then, our RPI would get a similar boost if ND wins the tournament. Similarly, we would take a slight hit if the WVU/ND winner loses in the championship game. Of course, if ND wins out, that might give them the edge in the “eyeball” test, even though their RPI would be lower than ours.

Of course, it’s all speculation because we don’t really know what the committee is going to do…and the effect on our RPI of any of the Big East games is not likely to be more than a place in either direction.

Comment by Pantherman13 03.12.10 @ 4:30 pm

I forgot – moral of the story, we can all now root for WVU to lose without feeling any guilt whatsoever about how it affects Pitt…not that I was worried about it anyways…

Comment by Pantherman13 03.12.10 @ 4:32 pm

Lunardi’s latest on ESPN Bracketology has Pitt as #4 seed. It will really sting if we miss out on a #3 seed but we can’t do anything about it now; just have to hope things shake out in our favor over the next few days. I would hope winning 8 of our last 10 (with the only 2 losses coming to ND, who is arguably the hottest team in the nation) would count for something. Like I said the other day, I’ve sat back on selection sunday and watched the committee short-change Pitt more than a few times, so I wouldn’t be surprised either way.

Comment by WorkinOnMyPittness 03.12.10 @ 4:33 pm

OK, one other thing I didn’t make clear in my last post…when I said that the winner of the Marquette/G’town game would not affect Pitt’s RPI, I meant Pitt’s raw rating, NOT Pitt’s standing in the RPI rankings. Of course, if G’town loses, G’town’s rating would go down, perhaps enough to drop them below Pitt in the RPI rankings, even though it would not significantly change Pitt’s rating.

Wisconsin just lost (RPI 16 before the loss), and Tennessee (RPI 17) is losing by 1 in the second half.

Comment by Pantherman13 03.12.10 @ 4:43 pm

Big East tourney is not very meaningful. Pitt’s as good as its record indicates and its seed will reflect that. This team worked hard all year for its record and it’ll get the seed it deserves. I’m glad we dumped the BE tourney, now we can focus on the games that matter. It wasn’t too long ago that Pitt was dominating the BE Tourney and dumping the NCAA Tourney.

Comment by johnnyrocket 03.12.10 @ 4:52 pm

Man do people go crazy after a loss. Pitt ended as the #2 regular season in the Big East. That isn’t a 5 seed. Probably won’t get a 3 either, and Pitt doesn’t deserve it. Win last night and a 3 was there. Notre Dame is playing very, very well right now. They remind me of the Pitt team in 2008 that got hot at the end of the year and won the BET.

I really hope Pitt can get out of the first weekend. If they do, then I think they have a chance to get back to the Elite 8. The second round game will be the toughest. Big East tournament wins are nice, but the NCAA tournament is what counts. A sweet 16 or better would be outstanding. Especially considering everybody, sand Jermaine, comes back and you have a great recruiting class coming in. Pitt will be in the top-10 all year.

Wannamaker was outstanding last night. It stinks that the lay-up at the end didn’t go down for him. He was a MAN all night. Stupid turnovers and couple missed assignments cost Pitt the game. The effort was there. Some fans were talking about a lack of effort last night, but I didn’t see it. I thought they played hard. Notre Dame is playing a tough brand of basketball right now. It is very difficult to defend for 35 seconds each trip. Regardless, Pitt was right there at the end.

This has been another outstanding year. I love this program. The future looks even brighter. On to the NCAA and hopefully the sweet 16.

Comment by Omar 03.12.10 @ 5:24 pm

Omar – I agree with you regarding the effort last night. I thought they played hard throughout, they just didn’t execute well. I am hopeful that getting away from the Big East (and teams that are very familiar with you) will help this team.

In terms of seeding, I wouldn’t be surprised if it follows very closely with the RPI, and right now Pitt looks like a 4 seed. The games tonight will go a long way in determining if they stay in that position. For Pitt, it doesn’t really make much difference if they are a 4 or 5, since those two positions are likely to play each other in the second round anyhow. More important for this team is that they take care of business in the first round, whomever they play.

Comment by Pantherman13 03.12.10 @ 5:44 pm

Ditto, Omar.

Pantherma13: I wasn’t insinuating tha an ugly WVU/ND game would help Pitt’s RPI. I know that and Pomery are all stats driven. I meant that it might (speculative) help Pitt’s eye test. WVU is considered a talented team and is highly ranked in the polls = good eye test. If they play as ugly as Pitt, the committee might overlook last night as “that’s just what the new ND does to teams.” Very speculative but hope you see what I was getting at.

I thought that away wins carried some weight in RPI which is why I thought a Marquette championship would be more helpful even though we only played them once. But I don’t know all of the formulas that go into it either. I just watch the rankings.

Comment by TampaT 03.12.10 @ 7:11 pm

Kinda glad WVU just won. I know that’s insane, but I’ve never liked ND in the Big East and their BS fans. This will be a nice final.

Comment by mattnyc 03.12.10 @ 11:42 pm

it always helps to have your big time player step up at a big time … and like it or not, D’Sean Butler is big time player

Comment by wbb 03.13.10 @ 9:44 am

My concern about seeding is that we don’t end up playing a big east team early. it will be interesting to see how many big east teams line up against each other and how many are in each bracket.

We seem to play better and with more intensity as the underdog. We were extremely cold and out of sync. Give credit to ND for their D, Gibbs got no open looks and Brown, what can you say, he is an enigma. McGhee seems to be in a slump offensively. Dixon has to stop throwing up threes.

Like most I am thrilled with this season, but will not be surprised if they stink or do great in the tournament.

Against ND two shots down the stretch were the difference. ND made them and we didn’t. Even as poorly as we played we still could have won. Joe Bendel said ND is the better team. They were the hotter team. Defensive lapses made the difference. If they play Pitt defense they will go far.

Let’s hope we get to the sweet sixteen and the Big East dominates.

Pitt is a young team with little tournament experience, will they beat the odds?

Comment by gc 03.13.10 @ 9:58 am

we got A LOT of help yesterday: link to espn.go.com

Comment by Tony Cancilla 03.13.10 @ 12:56 pm

I’m hoping we may slip by for a 2 seed now. It seems as though that PITT will either go to the Elite 8 or Final Four, or lose in the First or Second round(especially if we play Murray State)*hint hint*

Comment by Luke 03.13.10 @ 2:33 pm

“I’m glad we dumped the BE tourney, now we can focus on the games that matter. ”

johnnyrocket, I couldn’t disagree with you more. Winning is about playing well and, well, about winning. A team’s focus should be on playing well regardless of the venue. We did not play well against ND. The BET is not like, “OK guys. Just go out there and loosen up in preparation for the real games next week.” It’s a matter of focus and discipline. Losing never bodes well except if a team needs a wake-up call. I don’t think that the ND game was a matter of being nonchalant on Pitt’s part. I think that certain weaknesses were exposed. After 30+ games, they, perhaps, cannot be corrected.

Comment by BigGuy 03.13.10 @ 3:36 pm

BG, just to prove your point: No team that has lost in the first game of their conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA Championship…Not that I thought Pitt was headed for the final four anyhow. We lost our first game in the BET last year, and still made it to the round of 8. Its never good to look bad on National TV…It hurts your perception in the market place, it could even hurt your recruiting if you make a pattern of it.

Comment by HbgFrank 03.13.10 @ 5:47 pm

Interesting bracket projections this morning – Lunardi (ESPN) and Glockner (SI) have Pitt as a 3 seed, while Palm (CBSSports) has Pitt a 4. From looking at this admittedly small sample size, it looks like the teams that are right on that cut line are Pitt, Baylor, Temple, New Mexico and Wisconsin.

If you go be RPI ranking, Pitt (at 15) is a 4 seed. In fact, of those 5 teams, only Wisconsin has a lower RPI. On the other hand, I don’t believe any of those teams has the quality wins that Pitt has, in particular, the road win against Syracuse, and the wins against WVU and Villanova. I was a bit pessimistic at Pitt’s chances for a 3 seed yesterday, but I think Chas and others may be right that Pitt’s quality wins give them a solid chance at a 3 seed. A 5 seed looks very unlikely at this point.

Does it matter? Maybe – but probably only if Pitt makes it to the second weekend. I think the quality of teams drops off considerably after the first line, so if Pitt manages to win its first two games, I think they would rather play a 2 seed than a 1 seed in the 3rd round. Of course, any team that celebrates its 3rd round matchup before taking care of the first two rounds…well, we’re fans, not players, so we can do it!

Comment by Pantherman13 03.14.10 @ 10:43 am

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