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August 12, 2009

Pickin’ the Big East

Filed under: Football,Prognostications — Chas @ 9:27 am

Gene Collier wonders how Pitt got picked to be first in the Big East. Didn’t we cover this last week? It’s because every contender has huge, gaping flaws.

This has the feel of a forced column to tie-in to the start of practices. That or it was held from last week, when it might have been a touch more timely.

It does, however, allow a little recap of some other things. I avoided making an actual pick in my brief Big East preview for FanHouse. Instead, just looking at the pros/cons/scheduling of the top five teams.

Paul Zeise did something similar (except the schedule factor), as he looked at why teams would or wouldn’t win the conference. He also admits that he did not pick Pitt in the media poll, because of Pitt’s flaws.

Kevin Gorman did pick Pitt to win the conference, as he thinks Pitt can fill in most of the losses of players well and not have much of a drop-off. I don’t know. He rattles off so many questions and battles for spots that it just seems that he is presuming too many things work themselves out in a good way.

It’s the questions that make it tough for me to confidentally pick Pitt to win the Big East. Whether it is QB, the offensive line (especially center), kicking and punting, running back, and coaching.

Honestly, if I wasn’t taking into account the teams and their history I would go with either USF or Rutgers to win the Big East.

USF has the talent, but they have some cold-weather games (at Rutgers and at UConn) to contend and of course have faded in the second half perpetually.

As for Rutgers, have you seen their schedule? It’s not just the paper thin non-con. They get all of the other contending teams at home this year — Cinci, Pitt, USF and WVU. It is set up for them to win this year if they can find a QB and receivers.





All versions of the uniform…

link to media.photobucket.com

Comment by JSS 08.12.09 @ 11:02 am

24 days to kickoff folks! Looking at the schedule, there is no reason (other than that we’re Pitt) that we couldn’t start 6-0 and ranked decently high on our way into a nationally televised 8:00 PM tilt at Rutgers. Of course, since we frequently don’t take care of business, put me down for 4-2, with a last minute pass to Baldwin just barely overthrown at NC State. The other loss will probably come to UConn, but to get creative, I’ll say at Louisville, because their fans are fun and treated me well when I was there in 2005.

The schedule opens up perfectly for about 10 wins…but sadly, I can see 7-5. Please, for the love of God, win ten freaking games for once.

Also, I’ll go ahead and say we’ll be trailing at the half in three of our first four games.

Comment by maz. 08.12.09 @ 11:15 am

I think our defense is good enough to get us 6 or 7 wins… itself… its up to stull and and the O if we can get 2 or 3 more…

Comment by Snala the Panther 08.12.09 @ 12:01 pm

Any Pitt fan that has the audacity to look at our schedule and start to make super positive predictions is crazy. We should look at this like the players should — ONE GAME AT A TIME! Last year we didn’t “prove it” out of the gate, and it tarnished our whole season. I want to see these guys prove it before I start softening up and getting on a high horse. Walking out of that home opener last year was the most miserable experience of my sports watching life. Quite honestly, most Pitt Football games are horribly frustrating and mind numbing (the opposite would be Pitt BBall– the most pleasurable, guilty sin). Nonetheless, I am hopeful but in NO WAY confident.

One game at a time, people. Just win the home opener Stull & Co… that’s all we should ask.

Comment by Pauly P 08.12.09 @ 12:38 pm

no new ground here; all BE teams have flaws, Rutgers have very favorable schedule but lost Teel, Underwood and Britt. Pitt returns 14 starters and appear to have more depth at almost all positions, something that hasn’t occurred for a long time.

However, I would never pick USF — not sure I’ve ever seen a team so inconsistent sometimes even within the same game. Do you realize that USF was 5 and 0 and 10th ranked, coming off wins vs Kansas and at NC State, when Pitt beat them in Tampa last year? They finsihed with 2 BE wins.

I can see anywhere from 7 to 11 wins but must go along with Pauly here …. one game at a time.

Comment by w Bill 08.12.09 @ 1:06 pm

Over/Under on years until we see a script Pitt in the unis anyone? Further, odds on that script Pitt being in the hip flexor of the pants? I digress…

I truly hope Stull comes out of the gates with a serious chip on his shoulder and shows the tenacity that hasn’t been. Get it on with the quickness Stull!

HTP

Comment by Cool Hand Nuke 08.12.09 @ 1:19 pm

SI.com predicts an International Bowl featuring Pitt vs Temple.
I think I just threw up in my mouth.

Comment by jason 08.12.09 @ 2:25 pm

“Any Pitt fan that has the audacity to look at our schedule and start to make super positive predictions is crazy.”

Thanks for the commentary. Normally, I’d respond to that further, but since no one on this thread actually made super positive predictions, I’m not sure what the point of what you said was. Other than, you know, blanket attempts to categorize and put-down other people as “crazy.”

“We should look at this like the players should — ONE GAME AT A TIME!”

Well, not really. Unless we ARE players and/or coaches. I’m a fan. I like to look at the schedule and think about what could happen. I can confidently say it has never hurt the team once in my entire life that I, as a fan, was looking ahead to other games on the schedule.

“One game at a time, people. Just win the home opener Stull & Co… that’s all we should ask.”

I suppose that depends on how you mean to use “ask” here. If I were actually speaking to a given player, that might be what I’d ask. Or more accurately, I’d just ask him to play his best. But as for what we ask of this team generally? Sorry, I want more than beating Youngstown State. Of course, I will support them even if we go 0-12, but as for what I ask of them? More than 1-0 after Sept 5. Much more, in fact.

Comment by maz. 08.12.09 @ 2:46 pm

report on this morning’s practice link to pittsburgh.rivals.com

glad to see Burns step up; both Rivals and Scout rated him in top 15 RBs when recruited, and was surprised that he was demoted inspring .. but of course, long way to go

I do hope (and expect) that Cignetti can get the ball into the hands of the game-breakers hopefully in open spaces more than last year … namely Baldwin, Wright, Dickerson and the fast RBs

Comment by w Bill 08.12.09 @ 2:49 pm

Hey Maz,

Relax, I’m commenting on your thread and many others I have seen. Let’s just get through YSU, okay?

HTP

Comment by Pauly P 08.12.09 @ 3:36 pm

Wow, big surprise yet another post and more comments doubting Pitt football by Pitt fans. And I’m sure I’ll be labled yet again overly optimistic. But really why even root for a team if you always expect the worse. I was at the debacle at Toledo a few years back, but I’m still not going to same lame things like Pitt is only going to be 7-5. All this negativety is probably why Pitt played better on the road than at home last year. And I would know I was at every game.

Facts are this: Pitt returns a lot of starters on both sides of the ball. The defense is absolutely loaded. If you take out the outliers of the Rutgers game and the 6 OT ND game, Pitt only allowed 17 some points a game. And from all accounts the D-Line is going to be even better than it was last year.

Plus, Pitt’s offense will be better just with Cavanaugh gone. People still hate Cavanaugh in Baltimore for what he did there. He has coached some of the worst offenses ever. Addiontally, reports are that Pitt’s offensive line is going to be much improved. So I’m sure improved coaching and improved line play will make the offense better. Besides Pitt’s offense with Stull was getting better until Stull was hurt in the Rutgers game. And no this isn’t revionist history. Look at Stull’s stats. His completion percentage and rating increased every game following the Iowa win. And in the Rutgers game Stull was 16 of 22 for 279 yards, 72% passes complete and a 179.26 rating. I’m not even a huge Stull fan. I actually like Sunseri a lot. But still the numbers don’t lie.

Bottom line is yes the Sun Bowl was a terrible performance. But it was only one game, and bowl game results tend to be flukey do to the time in between games. But Pitt is still loaded with depth and experience.

All I know is that I am going to have a much better time being positive and always expecting and hoping Pitt to win, than being negative and wondering how Pitt is going to lose.

Go P, Go I, Go P-I double T!

Comment by theparty00 08.12.09 @ 3:38 pm

Some people are just slow learners, I guess.

Comment by Jeff 08.12.09 @ 4:01 pm

Unfortunately it’s not always that simple to file things as ‘just one game.’ Pitt has had some FANSTASTIC games over the past few years, but unfortunately, Pitt has also come up embarrassingly short in times we really needed to grab the bull by the balls. We ended a season with a breathtaking victory from one of our fiercest rivals and then opened the next season with a loss to Bowling Green at home? Are you freaking kidding me? And there’s still question about how there might be dissension amongst the faithful? Get real. We all have pride and optimism here, but how can anyone forget how horrific it was to be the laughing stock of the day when we lost to Bowling Green.

Pitt can’t continue to kill the momentum it picks up. Before the Sun Bowl, I would have NEVER imagined we could lose 3-0. I can absolutely accept a loss, but I will not accept losing in such a myriad of different circumstances that seems to be so far outside of the realm of possibilities. Quite frankly, I’m sick of excuses, Palko slides, being worried about openers, losing bowl games 3-0 with great backs, and certainly sick of ANYONE questioning the ability of Pitt being a top notch program. Every single successful program has the thing in common…they ALL build off of momentum. Well, except for USC; they pay players AND build off of momentum.

Maz said it best. We’re not players and we’re not coaches. We’re fans heavily involved in this ridiculous phenomena known as sports. It’s our job to keep the fire lit under the asses of everyone running the ship.

HTP

Comment by Cool Hand Nuke 08.12.09 @ 4:52 pm

pauly p

I’m relaxed. I just don’t particularly like being told that anyone with an opinion different from yours is crazy. You’ve entirely ignored the analysis of the post…surprise, surprise. To reiterate: looking over an entire schedule and making predictions about what might happen is not crazy, nor does it imply that I am somehow taking for granted that we’ll beat YSU (I, too, was at Toledo). Its simply a common and entertaining exercise for fans the world over to fill downtime between their teams’ games with speculation about the future. Or, you know, completely crazy to do because you don’t want me to do it. Its one of the two.

Cool Hand Nuke

Cheap shot at USC there. I have no problem with taking swipes at them, of course. But at least include other top teams with payrolls edging near the luxury tax. I’d hate to see Florida State get left out of any such discussions.

Comment by maz. 08.12.09 @ 7:44 pm

I know I have commented much about the negatism about Pitt fans, and will continue. It seems the farther we get from an event, the worst it ios made out to be.

For instance, I just read a reference about the ‘slide play’ which happened 5 years ago. While I don’t agree with the call, that play was not as critical or a turning point of that game as people think. The slide play occurred right before half time, but Pitt took its biggest lead of the game towards the end of the 3rd quarter … yet that goes down in Pitt lore as a heinous act. The sames goes with Stull’s performance in the Sun Bowl, as if he was soley to blame. People forget the snapping wind, the o-line being dominated by the OSU d-line, and Cav continuing to call passes that Stull could not throw.

But the fact is that Pitt returns 14 starters from a 9 win team, has more depth than its had in a long time, and is competing in a league that looks to be just as weak as the last time Pitt went to a BCS (same year as the slide play) … yet many people here sees last year as an abberation instead of a step forward!

Comment by w Bill 08.12.09 @ 8:08 pm

There are a few reasons to be optimistic, which you cited, but if you’ve been a Pitt fan for any length of time, you have to realize there have been any number of seasons in recent years where there were just as many if not more reasons to be optimistic, and the team winded up being a disappointment. 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007…unfortunately this program has a history of not living up to expectations (the Fiesta Bowl season being the rare exception).

Pitt fans aren’t just being negative for no reason, they’re just reacting to the team’s recent history. No point getting your hopes up too high when the team has repeatedly dashed them over the last decade.

On the bright side, at least we have SOME reasons for optimism this season. That’s more than you can say for Syracuse fans.

Comment by Jeff 08.12.09 @ 11:04 pm

Every year has to be judged on its own merits. Yes, last year’s Sun Bowl hurt…but that was last year. We also had exciting wins against nd and wvu (i know, i’ll hear the wvu game was, at times, poorly called…but still exciting).

I tend to think this could be a great year…yes, i know take it one game at a time…but we have plenty of speed, one solid line (O), and one superior line (D), and a new OC…as far I’m concerned…PITT is IT!

Hail to PITT!
-al-

Comment by Oregon_Panther 08.12.09 @ 11:49 pm

We return 14 starters from a 9 win team. We return the starting quarterback from a 3-0 embarrassment.

The world is not all sunshine and rainbows as you make it out to be. 8-4 is realistic for this team, 10-2 could happen, but so could 6-6.

Comment by Qb please 08.13.09 @ 6:50 am

Here are few excerpts from Paul Zeise’s blog from yesterday’s practice that may raise your expectations:

The more I watch Frank Cignetti’s approach, the more I like it. He’s high energy, he’s aggressive and he is demanding – and the players, particularly the quarterbacks seem to feed off that. He is much more animated than his predecessor and he really is a stickler for perfection. The quarterbacks really seem to have taken to him and frankly, they are playing as you’d expect. Bill Stull is steady and makes a lot of good decisions. Pat Bostick has surprised me with his increased arm strength. It is very noticeable that he can throw the ball down the field with a lot more distance and zip than he could last year. And like I wrote yesterday, the best pure passer on this team is Tino Sunseri. I’ve been as hard on the quarterbacks as anyone, but the more I watch them, the more I think they just may surprise some people, including me.

It could be a mirage — I mean, they are still playing fantasy football (i.e. they haven’t put on any pads) — but Aundre Wright has been quite impressive catching and running after the catch. And between Chris Burns, Dion Lewis, Ray Graham and Jason Douglas, the Panthers might have the fastest combination of four tailbacks in the country. Those guy are flying around the field, especially Douglas, who like I said is tiny, but my goodness can he make people miss.

Dave Wannstedt again made a comment about how much better the football team looks — you know, the Look Test — than it did when he got there and while he credited strength coach Buddy Morris, it is also a testament to the fact that he has recruited a lot of bigger, faster athletes and it is showing up on the field. This team really looks like a Division I football team is supposed to getting off the bus. In fact, this is one of the best looking teams I’ve covered since I started covering the Big East many moons ago. I know I was skeptical about the changes a strength coach can make — believe me, Buddy Morris has really made a mark on this team as they are mentally and physically tougher.

And finally, don’t forget to watch Pitt West (Russ Grimm and Terryl Austin (assistant coaches), Tyler Palko, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Gerald Hayes and Larry Fitzgerald are all with the Arizona Cardinals) play at Heinz Field in an exhibition game Thursday night (tomorrow or today depending on when you read this) against the Steelers.
(just thought the last paragraph would be of major interest here)

Comment by w Bill 08.13.09 @ 8:14 am

Jeff, I will argue with anyone 24/7 that the Fiesta Bowl team was the worst of Walt’s last 3 teams, and was not any better thatn Wanny’s last 2 teams. They just played in a very weak conference, easily the weakest BE of this decade if not in its existence. Just remember — that team needed OT to beat Furman, its leading receiver was a 5’8 walk-on, and its rush defense will easily qualify as the absolute worst to ever play in a BCS Bowl.

Every other team I cited played in a much better league whether it included Miami & Va Tech or Rutgers, WVU UC and Louisville having the best teams in the history of their programs.

I believe Pitt finished out of the Top 25 (or should have) after being routed by Utah. A year later, freshman QB-led WVU beat Georgia in Sugar Bowl, the last time an SEC chapm lost a bowl; 2 years after, 3 BE teams finished in Top 12 in BCS rankings; and 2 years ago, after losing to Pitt, WVU routed 4th ranked Oklahoma (who played much better this year in bowl vs national champ UF.)

I believe 2004 was the aberration, not last year.

Comment by w Bill 08.13.09 @ 8:45 am

I think that Buddy Morris has been pretty underrated.

Remember, Pitt was stronger than most of their opponents in the 4th quarter last year. That’s a testament to how in shape he gets these guys.

I’m just worried that we’ll be calling for Sunseri by game 3 or 4.

Comment by Jimbo Covert's my Dad 08.13.09 @ 11:00 am

In all fairness, I’m excited to see the boys line up in a couple weeks!

HTP!

Comment by Pauly P 08.13.09 @ 7:29 pm

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