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March 11, 2009

Waiting For Tomorrow

Filed under: Basketball,Big East,Conference — Chas @ 1:38 pm

So, should teams tank the Big East Tournament? That’s the question in the Wall Street Journal.

Looking at the last 20 Big East Tournaments, 38 of the 40 teams that made the final went on to play in the NCAA Tournament. Of those teams, 14 of them, or 37%, were upset by a lower-seeded team — and many of those upsets were plug ugly.

There’s a chart, though, that somewhat undermines the thesis.

Here’s how the teams that reached the finals of the last 20 Big East tournaments have done in the NCAA Tournament, based on their seeds.

  • Met Expectations: 53%
  • Beat Expectations: 10%
  • Lost By Upset: 37%

So, 63% of the time they at least won the games against lower seed opponents before falling to higher seeds. The theory might have more validity if compared by teams that played four games in four days to make the BET Championship game. Something Pitt doesn’t have to worry about this year, but last year?

“I was pretty tired. Last year, I feel it affected us a little bit,” Blair said.

Does this prove the popular opinion that Pitt puts too much emphasis on the Big East Tournament? Maybe the Panthers should rest their key players to get primed for a Final Four-or-further run. Blair’s comments certainly point to that.

But last year’s situation may have been more circumstance than correlation. Playing for your immediate future tends to wear one down.

The Panthers were desperately trying to re-acclimate themselves with point guard Levance Fields, who was getting healthy on the court after missing six weeks with a foot injury. They emitted every ounce of energy just to make sure they got into the NCAA Tournament, a bid they still hadn’t secured as the Big East Tournament opened.

“We were still finding ourselves in game (No.) 30 or 31,” Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said.

These Panthers’ already know much of their NCAA Tournament future: They’ll be either a one or two seed when the event begins next week. That’s not to say the Panthers won’t dispense the same type of effort, merely that the mental anguish won’t be as taxing.

As for conference tournament champions not fairing well in the NCAA Tournament?

Recent numbers suggest that is bunk.

Of the automatic qualifiers for the six BCS conferences (Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC) over the past three years, eight of the 18 advanced to the Final Four. Those 18 teams had a combined 54-15 Tournament record. Four of the past five national champions won their respective conference tournaments.

More pointedly, Big East champions have fared just as well.

Three of the past 10 Big East champs have advanced to the Final Four, with two of those teams (Connecticut in 1999 and 2004) being crowned national champions.

That’s why the double-bye is so important. No one — no one is going to tank it. No coach is going to hold something back. The players and coaches are not wired that way and would never approach it that way. So, if at all possible, you want as much rest and to be limited in the amount of games you have to play.

Nothing could be worse for teams like WVU, Marquette and Syracuse, but to get too hot and make it to the championship. They are  not deep enough to hold up without the mental toll as well. Marquette especially would be burned out by the mental side. They are still trying to figure out what they are doing without Dominic James.

Last year, Pitt defied log5-based preview. They are not nearly the longshot this year, but still not the favorite.

Back to Pitt, specifically, of course they are planning to win the BET.

And the Panthers are keeping an eye on the even bigger picture. They are keenly aware of what’s in front of them, and how it’s been beyond their reach in the past.

Despite wins over Marquette and Connecticut, the Panthers feel that this season is just beginning.

And that starts at the Garden.

“The coaches kept saying that we haven’t played well (recently),” said Blair, who has a poster of Final Four site Detroit hanging on his bedroom wall. “We haven’t played to our abilities.

“But everybody wants to go out on top.”

Sam Young, having busted out of a brief slump is looking to keep it going.

The 6-foot-6 senior forward seems to be tuning up for another big effort. Young is averaging 22.5 points and 7.5 rebounds over the past six games. He is shooting 54.6 percent from the field in that span.

Young, a native of Clinton, Md., also was named a first-team all-Big East selection and was the Big East Player of the Week.

“I think he’s been pretty good all year long,” Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said. “He’s been playing very well. He played really good defense on Saturday. He’s taking good shots. Layups are good shots and he’s had a lot of layups.”

To say nothing of reprising his performance in the BET, but this time carry it further.

“I think about it all the time,” Young said. “I’d watch the film, see exactly how I played, see how I was successful in those games.”

Young’s Garden Party was one of the great performances for any Pitt player at the Big East tournament. He scored 21 points in the first-round victory against Cincinnati, 21 in the overtime quarterfinal win against Louisville, 22 in the semifinal victory against Marquette and 16 in the championship win against Georgetown.

“He led and everyone followed,” sophomore guard Brad Wanamaker said.

Young joined Julius Page as the only other Pitt player to win the Big East tournament’s most outstanding player award. Page won the award after the Panthers claimed their first tournament championship in 2003.This week, Young is hoping to do something that only one other player in the history of the Big East has done — win the most outstanding player honor twice.

Patrick Ewing of Georgetown achieved that feat in 1984 and ’85. Of course, that would mean Pitt would have to repeat and win a third tournament championship.

Young is up to the challenge.

“If the opportunity presents itself, I’ll try to do that to the best of my ability,” Young said. “I can’t let something like that slip away.”

Wanamaker believes Young is motivated by Pitt’s early exit from last year’s NCAA tournament.

“It seems like he has some unfinished business,” Wanamaker said. “He feels like he can lead us to a championship.”

If you didn’t watch any of the CBS college basketball studio — either after Pitt trumping UConn or even on Sunday, you most likely heard Seth Davis declare that Pitt would win the national championship. So, really, Mr. Davis, don’t play coy now.

All right, let’s cut to the chase here. Who is going to win this thing?

I like to save my official pick for the Selection Show. If I spoiled the suspense here, what reason would you have to watch? While I always reserve the right to wait until the last possible moment to make up my mind, let’s just say it’s pretty unusual for a city to celebrate both a Super Bowl championship and an NCAA championship in the same year. This is feeling like one of those years.





While I do believe last year to be an aberration, I do not buy into the theory that making it to the BE title game negatively affects the NCAA run – especially for not getting past the Sweet 16 game which occurs 13 or 14 days after the BE championship game.

Last year, Pitt played 4 straight days, had a lack of depth due to Cook’s injury (and a less than 100% Fields), and played in high altitude against a physical MSU team .. and I remember Coach Izzo saying that he thought Pitt look tired at the end of the game.

Pitt will play to win the BE, however, I do hope Coach substitutes more liberally than he usually does in the big games.

Comment by w bill 03.11.09 @ 2:44 pm

Saw that S.Davis piece earlier today. Shouldn’t he be picking Oklahoma, who he’s had a hard on for all year- voting them #1 even after they lost twice and we knocked off UConn the first time?

Comment by SilverPanther in NYC 03.11.09 @ 2:56 pm

St John’s has scored 20 points in the first 27 minutes of play. Come on Johnny’s you can at least shoot for 1 point per minute played, can’t you? This 16 team tournament is a joke. Accomplishes nothing. We should go back to the 12 team format.

Comment by Tiger Paul 03.11.09 @ 3:09 pm

Way to go Johnnies. 1.125 points per minute. You qualify to play Penn state or Illinois from the Big Ten.

Comment by Tiger Paul 03.11.09 @ 3:46 pm

HA- good one Tiger Paul!! it’s actually kind of hilarious, because the Johnnies are so horrible, the NYC media has taken Pitt on as their ‘home’ team! yay!

Comment by Caroline in NYC 03.11.09 @ 4:31 pm

Paul:

How can you say that when St. John’s and DePaul both won games as teams seeded below the top 12? Are you really going to argue that Georgetown, who lost twice to St. John’s, deserved to play Marquette more? That game was CLEARLY a statement game for a Marquette team that needed to show the committee that they can win without James after the four game losing streak. And DePaul, 0-18 in league play, beat a solid Cincinnati squad as the 16 seed, and then pushed Providence for 35 or so minutes. Sure, the 16 seed probably can’t win it all, but that kind of logic would suggest we cut the NCAAs back down to 32.

Also, St. John’s would obliterate Penn State. If you’re giving the Big East losing teams bids into the Big Ten Tournament, they should be byed to at least semis.

As for who will cut the nets down in Motown? Too early to throw that out there Chas. I will say this, though…of the teams that could, three of them come from the home conference. Count UNC, Memphis, Kansas (seriously), Oklahoma, UCLA, Michigan State (kind of seriously), and the SEC champ (nope, kidding) as other possibilities.

Comment by maz. 03.11.09 @ 6:34 pm

Maz,
I hate PSU/Big Ten just as much as the next guy, but let’s not be ridiculous. “St. John’s would obliterate Penn State”? Penn State is probably an NCAA Tournament team…I was at the St. John’s/Marquette game today (unfortunately) and believe me, St. John’s isn’t capable of obliterating anyone. They didn’t even look like a college basketball team today. 10 points in the first half? You’ve gotta be kiddin me!

The atmosphere at the garden was horrible too. I imagine it will be better tonight, but inviting 16 teams takes a little bit of the magic away from the tournament. Yesterday’s games were not even on TV and today’s atmosphere was incredibly lackluster.

Comment by TJ 03.11.09 @ 7:00 pm

Watching ND play basketball makes my eyes hurt. They don’t help each other and they hate to play defense. Too bad they lost to West Virginia, they could have made a tired snack for us before Pitt-UCONN III – No Mas Again. West Virginia is going to challenge us tomorrow but I think we win by 10 at least.

Comment by Panthoor 03.11.09 @ 8:02 pm

Ohh, we’re playing the Hoopies once again tomorrow night!!

Comment by Ann 03.11.09 @ 8:04 pm

PITT vs WVU round 3. I’m liking our chances

Comment by ryan 03.11.09 @ 8:05 pm

St. John’s and Penn State would be a good game. Looking forward to the Hoopies.

Comment by Luke 03.11.09 @ 8:16 pm

I agree with TJ in saying St. John’s obliterating anyone would never could never won’t ever happen any time soon. That being said, I agree with Luke in that they would be a good game with PSU. When SJU played at the Pete they showed they were good enough quality to play with and beat PSU.

Comment by Ontario Lett's Go Pitt 03.11.09 @ 8:44 pm

Maz, Kansas is kind of scaring me right now. I hope they’re not in our bracket. They’re playing really well.

Comment by KeyboardKev 03.12.09 @ 6:41 am

you read it here first — the only Big 12 to worry about is Texas. They are playing well again, and Barnes (like Izzo) seems to do well in the NCAA.

St John’s beats GTown on one day. scores 10 pts in the 1st half the next day; kind of like PSU’s seasons where they won at MSU but looked very bad on several occassions …….. PSU v SJU depends on which team from each side shows up

Comment by w bill 03.12.09 @ 7:02 am

W bill, no offense, but I think you’re completely off on this one. I think Missouri and Kansas are both talented teams and I’d specifically like to avoid Missouri because I think they’d be a matchup nightmare. They get great pressure up and down the floor for 40 minutes and they have really talented, athletic players to make this happen. I think Pitt’s better, but I don’t wanna find out firsthand.

Comment by Chris 03.12.09 @ 10:58 am

As I write this Baylor is beating KU 24 to 11, but wouldn’t be surprised at all if KU wins.

Both Missouri and KU are talented but I’m just not that enthralled about the Big 12 this year, and really don’t expect either to go far …. however, believe KU will be a Top 10 team next year.

Comment by w bill 03.12.09 @ 11:55 am

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