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March 17, 2006

Big Numbers

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 1:17 pm

[Editor’s Note: A version with more explanation as to the stats meanings and how they work was posted to NEO Babble yesterday. Since most of you already have read that stuff before, I’m keeping it limited to the vitals.]

Here are the basic numbers for Pitt and Kent State:

Pittsburgh — Key Team Stats — Kent State
72.5 ——– Points scored —– 72.5
62.8 ——- Points allowed —– 65.5
.452 ——— FG% own ——- .449
.402 —– FG% opposition —– .439
.352 ——— 3PT% own ——– .357
.344 —– 3PT% opposition —– .332
406 ——- Off Rebounds ——– 363
809 ——- Def Rebounds ——- 738
1312 —– Total Rebounds —– 1211
1.2 ——- Assist/Turnover —— 1.0
17.1 —— Fouls Per Game —– 20.1

Here are the advanced numbers for Pitt and Kent State.

——— Pitt ——-Kent St.
FG% —- 45.2 ——- 44.9
FT% —- 68.8 ——- 71.6
3FG% — 35.2 ——- 35.7
PPWS — 1.09 ——- 1.10
eFG% — 50.8 ——- 51.1
Poss/40 — 68.5 ——- 69.4
O-Rating — 105.8 —– 103.9
D-Rating — 91.9 ——- 94.9
RPG —- 36.1 ——- 30.0
BPG —- 3.8 ——— 2.5
APG —- 16.5 ——- 13.4
SPG —- 6.4 ——— 7.8
FPG —- 17.0 ——- 20.1
A/TO — 1.2 ——— 1.0
TO Rate — 19.7 ——- 18.8
A/B% — 65.3 ——- 55.0
B/PF — 0.2 ——— 0.1
Floor% — 53.3 ——- 49.8
FT Prod — 27.9 —— 29.2

FG% (Field Goal %); FT% (Free Throw %); PPWS (Points per Weighted Shot); eFG% (Effective FG %); A/TO (Assist-Turnover Ratio); B/PF (Blocks-Fouls Ratio); BPG (Blocks Per Game); FPG (Personal Fouls Per Game); APG (Assists Per Game); TOPG (Turnovers Per Game); SPG (Steals Per Game); RPG (Rebounds Per Game); 3FG% (Three-Point FG %); O-Rating (Offensive Rating (Points per 100 possessions)); D-Rating (Defensive Rating (Points allowed per 100 possessions)); Floor% ((FGM + OR) / (FGA + Turnovers) FTProd Free Throw Production (FTM / FGA) ); TO Rate (Turnover Rate (TO/Poss)) A/B% (Assisted Basket Pct. (Assists/FGM))

Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS), goes to understanding the efficiency of players and teams in translating shot and free throw attempts into points.

PPWS = PTS/(FGA + (0.475 x FTA))

Obviously, the higher the number, the better. Kent St. is actually 70th in the country (out of 334 teams) and Pitt is at #88. Not a significant difference.

Both Pitt and Kent St. have similar numbers, with Kent St. shooting a little better.

The possession/40 number (explanation here). That goes to explaining the pace played by the team. The average pace for a NCAA game is somewhere around 69.0 possessions. So, you can see that Pitt plays a slightly slower pace than the average while Kent St. plays slightly faster.

The offensive/defensive ratings (O-Rating and D-Rating) are based on points per 100 possessions. Despite Pitt playing a slightly slower pace, they do more with their possessions than Kent State. On defense, Pitt is clearly better.

Kent St. is a very respectable team in their adjusted numbers, but Pitt is one of the best defensive teams in the country and an excellent offensive team.

Another area of significant difference is the assists to baskets made % (A/B%). This is simply the percentage of baskets that come from an assist. In other words, teams that pass and find the open man versus teams that have individuals creating their own shot. Pitt has excelled all season at making the extra pass and finding the open shot. It is no surprise then, that at 65.3%, Pitt is 10th best in the country in that number.

Kent is respectable at 55% (186th), but they are more likely to pull up for shots more or come off of screens and pass less. This means that they have players creating or taking their own shot more often.





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