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March 12, 2006

The Game To Play

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 11:16 pm

All props to the Pitt Athletic Department for getting this info out right away. No time has yet been announced for the game, other than it being on Friday. I guess for me, the good news is that since it is Kent St., the game will definitely be shown locally.

The Pitt players all expressed surprise and disappointment over being a #5 seed. They also admitted they knew next to nothing about Kent State. Coach Dixon was diplomatic.

On where the team is seeded…

“A five seed is obviously a little bit of a surprise. Based on our RPI, I thought we might be closer to a three or a four seed. However, the committee can move you up and down based on location and based on other teams from your conference. With eight teams making it from the Big East, that probably had an effect.”

On whether the Big East tournament should play into the seeding…

“I think RPI is the committee’s primary tool. Even after our success in the tournament, our RPI didn’t change that much. Obviously it helped Syracuse out this year, but we got what we needed.”

On whether he’d rather be a higher seed or play closer to home…

“I think it’s different in every situation. It really all depends on which coaches you ask. It’s always a source for heated debates. It’s great for us to be in Michigan. Since playing at “home” in 2002, we’ve been sent around the country a lot, it’s nice that our fans are a driving distance away.”

On being in the same bracket as UCLA…

“It definitely caught my eye. I thought we might end up out west with Gonzaga, UCLA and some of the other teams. It’s nice because I’m very familiar with the coaches and the programs in our bracket.”

Assuming Pitt and Kansas win their first round games — big assumptions — the crowd should definitely be a little more Pitt partisan based on location. Another flaw in the system since the pod system was supposed to protect top-4 seeds from being exposed to likely partisan crowds. Last I checked, a Detroit suburb was a lot closer to Pittsburgh than Lawrance.

I have set up a free bracket group for those interested through ESPN.com. The group name to look for is “Pitt Sports Blather.”

Vetting the Seeding

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 10:17 pm

I’ve had some beer time to think about this.

The seeding is one of the worst. Pitt’s snub got glossed over because there was so much to sort through in the confusion.

The #1 seeds were fine, but there is rarely much confusion over those. Just occasional disputes as to who was more worthy.

At #2, there wasn’t much dispute, except for Tennessee which shocked everyone. About the only thing they had was the #6 RPI and a non-con SOS of 10. Otherwise they were not looking good. They went down early in the SEC Tourney. They had lost 3 of their last 4 and 4 of their last 6. In their final 10 games only 6-4. Splitting with Kentucky and beating Florida. They were only 4-4 against RPI top-50. Plus there is an injury issue to their starting forward.

With the #3 seeds, Iowa is reasonable considering their #7 RPI following their winning of the Big 11 Tournament. Florida got bumped to this line solely for winning the SEC. They finished #15 RPI. A non-con SOS of 253. 7-3 in their last 10 games. They were 6-3 versus the top-50 RPI (2-2 versus top-25). UNC is #12 in RPI and of course they are UNC coached by Roy Williams and the defending National Champs.

Let me pause here. In the top-12 RPI, Pitt (#11) was the only team not to be seeded in the top 3 spots. And they weren’t dropped to the #4 line. They fell to the #5 line.

The only other team in the top-20 RPI to fall more than 2 spots in the seeding was Oklahoma. Oklahoma has a #16 RPI, and finished 6-4. They also lost their opening game to Nebraska. They lost one other game to Colorado. That’s two teams who didn’t even make the NCAA. Pitt also went 6-4, but Pitt’s 4 losses all came to NCAA Tournament qualifiers.

Here’s a game guaranteed to piss off. Compare the numbers:

Team A
RPI: #22
Non-Con SOS: # 282
Non-Con W-L versus NCAA Tournament teams: 0-1
Number of sub-150 RPI non-con played: 8 (8-0)
Number of sub-150 RPI teams played in conference: 2 (1-1)
Last 10: 8-2
Lost Conf. Championship in tight game
Conference RPI Rank: #3
Vs. Top-50 RPI: 3-4
Vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-2
Overall W-L versus NCAA Tournament Teams: 3-4
National Rankings: #11, #11

Team B
RPI #11
Non-Con SOS: # 227
Non-Con W-L versus NCAA Tournament teams: 1-0
Number of sub-150 RPI non-con played: 6 (6-0)
Number of sub-150 RPI teams played in conference: 0
Last 10: 6-4
Lost Conf. Championship in tight game
Conference RPI Rank: #2
Vs. Top-50 RPI: 7-5
Vs. Top-25 RPI: 3-2
Overall W-L versus NCAA Tournament Teams: 6-6
National Rankings: #15, #16

Team C
RPI: #15
Non-con SOS: #253
Non-Con W-L versus NCAA Tournament teams: 1-0
Number of sub-150 RPI non-con played: 7 (7-0)
Number of sub-150 RPI teams played in conference: 1 (1-0)
Last 10: 7-3
Won Conf. Championship in tight game
Conference RPI Rank: #4
Vs. Top-50 RPI: 6-3
Vs. Top-25 RPI: 2-2
Overall W-L versus NCAA Tournament Teams: 5-4
National Rankings: #16, #14

Team A: Boston College.

Team B: Pitt.

Team C: Florida.

BC is considered the hotter team, and has a higher ranking. That’s it.

To briefly address the bogus argument of the committee penalizing Pitt for not succeeding as a higher seed in the past, then the same would have to apply to BC considering their lack of success — especially last year. Not to mention UCLA in recent appearances and even Gonzaga when they are a high seed.

About the only argument I can fathom, is that they bumped Pitt to a #5 from even a #4 for match-up reasons. Keeping them out of potential Sweet 16 games against UConn or Villanova. I think that if South Carolina had pulled the upset over Florida and/or Iowa lost to Ohio State, Pitt would have been a #3 seed.

Selection Sunday

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 7:02 pm

Quick thoughts. Barely got home before the selection show.

It’s official. I am an optimist. I just could not believe Pitt would be a 5 seed. And to have to face Kent St. Not good. A 5-12 upset always happens and this could be the one.

Maybe I was reaching with a #3 seed, but at the very least they should have been a #4. This selection committee not only ignored the RPI, but they also ignored non-con SOS. I don’t care what Craig Littlepage said on CBS. BC got a #4 seed with one of the most pathetic non-cons. Illinois got a #4 seed with a sub-par non-con. Pitt was in-between and got a #5 seed. It seems they put a much heavier emphasis on the last 10 games. Pitt was a pedestrian 6-4 in that span and BC was hot.

Really, the BE got screwed when you realize that only UConn and ‘Nova made the top 16 seeds. Pitt and ‘Cuse ended up at #5, Cinci got screwed out despite a solid non-con.

Seeding matters. The ACC got 3 of its 4 in the top 4 seeding. To hear Nantz and Packer stupidly complain that the MVC got the same amount of teams in the Big Dance ignores where they were seeded by comparison.

I’ll have more when I settle down.

Pitt-Syracuse: Disjointed Thoughts

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 11:25 am

No broadband really feels weird. Go over to Keith Wehmeyer for a better, more coherent round-up.

Krauser and Gray were named to the All-Big East Tournament Team (PDF). Randy Foye, Villanova along with Nichols and Watkins from Syracuse were also named. No shock that McNamara was the Tourney MVP. He was deserving of it before the final game.

I found myself tossing and turning about the game last night, replaying key moments when Pitt missed opportunities or blew a defensive assignment. I’m only a fan. I can’t imagine what Dixon, and the players were feeling (and hopefully those refs).

That’s the hideous flip side to all 7 of Pitt’s losses being by 5 points or less. Essentially, that means each loss arguably have turned on 1 or 2 possessions. Whether it’s a blown call by the refs, a missed open look, a defensive breakdown, a turnover, anything. In a bigger loss, it can just be a bad game, a hot team or something else that almost makes it more palatable.

Pitt is 4-7 in games decided by 5 points or less, and 6-7 in 7 points or less.

I’m pissed at the refs but I’m not blaming them for this game. Pitt came out and played a lousy first half. Forget the 8-29 shooting in the first half, they were 3-17 inside the arc. That’s right, .176 2FG% and .417 3FG%. That Pitt was only down 9 at the half was amazing.

Yes, Pitt’s defense was a little soft in the first half, but give Syracuse a lot of credit. They still made a bunch of those shots. Pitt didn’t when given opportunities. Ramon and Fields went 0-8.

Stat wise, this game was completely befuddling. Syracuse actually outrebounded Pitt 35-34, but Pitt committed 1 less turnover than ‘Cuse 12-13.

While Pitt got startlingly great offensive production from Antonio Graves, 14 points on 4-7 shooting; Demetris Nichols, 15 points on 5-7 shooting was the counter balance for Syracuse.

The same could be argued for Krauser (16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 TO) and McNamara (14 points, 0 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 TO).

Really it came down to the frontcourt. Terrance Roberts and Daryl Watkins looked nothing like the soft, lost players Pitt was able to shove around the last time they met. Both were aggressive and active. They produced points and were strong on defense. They outplayed Gray, Young and Kendall.

Luke Winn who blogged the BE Tourney for SI.com still likes Pitt’s guard production and capable of at least getting to the Sweet Sixteen.

While lauding McNamara and the Orange, there was this to say about Pitt:

Pittsburgh was the forgotten team in this tournament, and rather unjustly so; the Panthers had to beat 19th-ranked West Virginia and second-ranked Villanova on consecutive nights just to get to their fifth final in six years. But Pittsburgh fell behind by 15 points in the first half and had to battle back.

That’s what happens when there is an easier story. A single player and a hall of fame, media savvy coach who knows how to make the big story.

Here are the post game quotes from both teams.

Q. You guys weren’t expected to get to this point. How will this run you made bolster you going into the NCAAs?

AARON GRAY: We learned a lot from this week. Even as disappointed as we are as a team, you know, from just tonight’s effort, you know, we definitely learned so much. One of the biggest things we can take away from tonight is we got to bring it every night.

We started off real slow, and the guys did a great job of playing so hard and coming back. Our team was almost, like, determined at one point. We just didn’t make the final plays to come down the stretch. But, I mean, there’s so many positives that we can take out of this week. We’re real confident going into the NCAA tournament. I mean, we’ve beaten really good teams the last three nights, you know. To come up short to another very good team, you know, like I said, it’s all positive at this point going into the NCAA tournament.

Q. Coach, can you talk about adjustments you made. They were defending high post real well. You made adjustments. The zone looked more intense out there.

COACH JAMIE DIXON: I mean, you know, we didn’t shoot it great tonight. That has a lot to do with the zone. I thought we got the ball inside when we wanted to. I think second half we got a little bit used shot fakes around the basket, got some finishes too, as well. I thought we did a good job attacking. I don’t think it was any different than what we’ve seen in the past against them. We’ve always been pretty good against the zone.

I thought our defense, they shot the ball well. It’s, again, it was close. We want to really overanalyze this thing, it was a close game coming down to one or two plays. Don’t read too much into it. Two teams battles, two teams playing hard, and came up a little bit short on a shot or two and a rebound or two or deflection. It’s two teams that battled and played their hearts out.

Q. Carl, are you going to walk out of this thinking you should have won this game?

CARL KRAUSER: (Laughing). Yeah. Yeah, we’ll walk out of here thinking, “We should have won this game,” of course.

Q. Why?

CARL KRAUSER: Because, you know, I feel that we’re tough competitors, you know. Everything just felt right at the same time coming into the second half. We had the momentum and everything like that. Both teams are great, great competitive teams in the BIG EAST. I just always tip my hat to the other team and Syracuse did a great job.

Columns from Starkey and Smizik to round it all out.

More On Seeding

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 10:08 am

[At the in-laws on dial-up. There’s no good way to really compile a media round-up at this plodding pace.]

I guess I’m an optimist. Despite Pitt getting screwed by the seeding the other year — given the way the team was flaming out last year, hindsight suggests we weren’t screwed — I think Pitt is sitting at #3 in the seedings. Here’s the RPI after yesterday’s action. Pitt is sitting at #11 and non-con SOS is 223.

Here’s who we should be rooting for to help Pitt with the seed lines: South Carolina, Texas, Ohio State and Duke.

South Carolina: Sure winning might knock a BE team out of the NCAA because of taking an auto bid, but beating Florida would be double good for Pitt. Their RPI (presently about 61) would likely be vaulted into the top-50. Meaning Pitt would have a very respectable 8-5 record against the RPI top-50 (3-2 versus RPI top-25). Also, that would mean Florida — with a worse overall RPI and weaker non-con SOS than Pitt (#16, #253) — would not be able to go up and make the argument for a #3 seed ahead of Pitt.

Texas, Ohio St. and Duke: This is all about keeping the teams they are facing from jumping Pitt in the RPI.

Idle anti-Duke thought. There were rumblings that Villanova is no longer assured of a #1 because of concerns that Allan Ray might miss the opening game or weekend — though that has changed. J.J. Reddick hurt his knee I believe against Wake. If Reddick were to go down to a knee injury today, Duke loses and his return was questionable before the opening weekend does anyone really believe Duke would be penalized?

Any how, Texas is pretty much locked in at a #2 seed. Kansas sits at #25 in the RPI. They are hot, on a 9-1 run at the moment, but are only 3-5 versus top-50 RPI. Being second in the Big XII to Texas. With a win, they vault into a battle for #3 seed despite their RPI. A big win, hot team and coupled with a big name program in college basketball.

Ohio State is still trying to sneak in as a #1, taking the spot from either Memphis or Villanova. Iowa, with their win yesterday moved ahead of Pitt to #10 in the RPI. They have an impressive 10-5 record against the top-50 RPI (5-5 versus top-25 RPI). Tied for second with Illinois in the Big 11 regular season. Beating OSU locks them at #3 and puts them in the argument for a #2 seed.

There is virtually no doubt that Duke will be a #1 seed regardless. The issue is Boston College. Their RPI is now up to #21. They are a hot team with a 9-1 record. On the flip side they have a non-con SOS of 282 and are only 4-4 versus top-50 RPI (1-2 versus top-25 RPI). Their non-con is embarrassing even compared to Pitt. 8 of their 13 non-cons were versus teams with RPIs of 150 or lower (plus GT had an RPI of 158). Even if they beat Duke, they shouldn’t be more than a #4 seed, but beating Duke has cache and might put them up to #3.

Now looking over my seeding lists from last night and now, with some coffee and a clearer head, I see a lot of glaring errors and excluded teams. Especially looking at some other seed lines.

The ESPN.com Bracketology (not updated to reflect yesterday) at this time, has Pitt at a #3 seed and Syracuse at #9. I don’t understand how Illinois (RPI #14, non-con SOS 191) gets a #2 seed. Greg Doyel at Sportlsine.com and Stewart Mandel at SI.com have Pitt as a #3 seed. Even before Pitt beat ‘Nova, Seth Davis at SI.com had Pitt as a #3 seed.

Tennessee has an RPI of #6, but perception of them is falling. Plus, it turns out their forward Dane Bradshaw needs wrist surgery — it might be put-off, but it will limit his effectiveness — that has to hurt their seeding. (The article also notes that Pitt will be getting that contract extension from Pitt. Grant Wahl at SI.com ranks Coach Dixon as having performed the 9th best coaching job of the year.) Louisiana St. probably played itself out of a #3 or #4 seed with the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament. UNC is still probably a #3 seed.

So, yeah, Pitt could get screwed by the seeding committee, but I feel strangely good this time that Pitt will get a #3, at worst the high #4.

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