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March 12, 2006

More On Seeding

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 10:08 am

[At the in-laws on dial-up. There’s no good way to really compile a media round-up at this plodding pace.]

I guess I’m an optimist. Despite Pitt getting screwed by the seeding the other year — given the way the team was flaming out last year, hindsight suggests we weren’t screwed — I think Pitt is sitting at #3 in the seedings. Here’s the RPI after yesterday’s action. Pitt is sitting at #11 and non-con SOS is 223.

Here’s who we should be rooting for to help Pitt with the seed lines: South Carolina, Texas, Ohio State and Duke.

South Carolina: Sure winning might knock a BE team out of the NCAA because of taking an auto bid, but beating Florida would be double good for Pitt. Their RPI (presently about 61) would likely be vaulted into the top-50. Meaning Pitt would have a very respectable 8-5 record against the RPI top-50 (3-2 versus RPI top-25). Also, that would mean Florida — with a worse overall RPI and weaker non-con SOS than Pitt (#16, #253) — would not be able to go up and make the argument for a #3 seed ahead of Pitt.

Texas, Ohio St. and Duke: This is all about keeping the teams they are facing from jumping Pitt in the RPI.

Idle anti-Duke thought. There were rumblings that Villanova is no longer assured of a #1 because of concerns that Allan Ray might miss the opening game or weekend — though that has changed. J.J. Reddick hurt his knee I believe against Wake. If Reddick were to go down to a knee injury today, Duke loses and his return was questionable before the opening weekend does anyone really believe Duke would be penalized?

Any how, Texas is pretty much locked in at a #2 seed. Kansas sits at #25 in the RPI. They are hot, on a 9-1 run at the moment, but are only 3-5 versus top-50 RPI. Being second in the Big XII to Texas. With a win, they vault into a battle for #3 seed despite their RPI. A big win, hot team and coupled with a big name program in college basketball.

Ohio State is still trying to sneak in as a #1, taking the spot from either Memphis or Villanova. Iowa, with their win yesterday moved ahead of Pitt to #10 in the RPI. They have an impressive 10-5 record against the top-50 RPI (5-5 versus top-25 RPI). Tied for second with Illinois in the Big 11 regular season. Beating OSU locks them at #3 and puts them in the argument for a #2 seed.

There is virtually no doubt that Duke will be a #1 seed regardless. The issue is Boston College. Their RPI is now up to #21. They are a hot team with a 9-1 record. On the flip side they have a non-con SOS of 282 and are only 4-4 versus top-50 RPI (1-2 versus top-25 RPI). Their non-con is embarrassing even compared to Pitt. 8 of their 13 non-cons were versus teams with RPIs of 150 or lower (plus GT had an RPI of 158). Even if they beat Duke, they shouldn’t be more than a #4 seed, but beating Duke has cache and might put them up to #3.

Now looking over my seeding lists from last night and now, with some coffee and a clearer head, I see a lot of glaring errors and excluded teams. Especially looking at some other seed lines.

The ESPN.com Bracketology (not updated to reflect yesterday) at this time, has Pitt at a #3 seed and Syracuse at #9. I don’t understand how Illinois (RPI #14, non-con SOS 191) gets a #2 seed. Greg Doyel at Sportlsine.com and Stewart Mandel at SI.com have Pitt as a #3 seed. Even before Pitt beat ‘Nova, Seth Davis at SI.com had Pitt as a #3 seed.

Tennessee has an RPI of #6, but perception of them is falling. Plus, it turns out their forward Dane Bradshaw needs wrist surgery — it might be put-off, but it will limit his effectiveness — that has to hurt their seeding. (The article also notes that Pitt will be getting that contract extension from Pitt. Grant Wahl at SI.com ranks Coach Dixon as having performed the 9th best coaching job of the year.) Louisiana St. probably played itself out of a #3 or #4 seed with the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament. UNC is still probably a #3 seed.

So, yeah, Pitt could get screwed by the seeding committee, but I feel strangely good this time that Pitt will get a #3, at worst the high #4.





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