The more I think about the Big 12’s survival, the more it reminds me of the desperation of the Big East in 2003 when Miami was getting ready to go to the ACC. There was a lot of desperation by the Big East. The leadership belatedly realized how much they needed the Hurricanes, and how unstable things really were.

Especially when the ACC was willing to add two more Big East schools to go with Miami.

The Big East football schools were ready to split from the basketball side to keep Miami — and two teams from going with them to the ACC. Expansion would have been on the table to go with Louisville and Cinci just to get to 10 teams (USF would never have been included), or keeping making Temple a full member and adding just Louisville. In addition, the Big East made offers to Miami beyond simply uneven revenue sharing. They were offering them an extra $1 million per year for the next five years.

It was really a sweetheart deal born of desperation. Miami could have taken it and probably held a much more dominant place in the Big East. Essentially they were offered control of the Big East and the clearest, easiest shot to a BCS bowl and possible national championship every year. After five years, they still could have bolted.

For the Big East, the reason was clear. It would have given the conference time. Time for figuring out whether they could reach long-term stability. Whether they could reach a 12-team conference by raid and expansion. Give the conference time to get stronger and keep Miami happy. Time was what the Big East needed.

Instead, Miami spurned the offer for the stability and improved geography of the ACC.

The situation isn’t exactly the same. Texas, by staying in the Big 12/10 has a better geographic fit than the Pac-16 would have. Otherwise, it isn’t too far apart. Time seems to be the overriding thing that the Big 12 got out of this deal for half the membership.

Texas chose the easier path to the BCS and far, far greater control over the conference than they could anywhere else. The Pac-10/16 would have kept media rights and divided money more equitably. Same with the Big 10 and so would the SEC.

No one seems to believe that the Big 12 will last more than a few more years in the present state. All it did was give the teams that would have been left out in the cold a little more time. Time to figure out what their long-term options really are (or to simply bury their head in the sand and pretend that all is well and nothing will change — also known as the Big East method).

Too many fault-lines were exposed.

Some Texas fans were not totally surprised, because they understood how much Texas wanted, craved and likes being in control of the conference. It isn’t uniform, though, the idea of the Pac-16 and the conference had many in favor of going forward. Plus, they recognize that there is no stability out of this new arrangement.

Things are unstable now, despite the bandages.  If the numbers being tossed around are right, the gap between the “haves and the haves nots” in the conference is enormous.  Texas could make over 100% more than the poorest teams (I’ve seen 30+ million total, compared to 14-17 for the lower earning schools), and we saw how much angst 30% caused.  For a time, there will be peace, because so much of the conference didn’t have a plan A or plan B, and they feel like UT saved them.  I’m setting the over-under at 18 months before KU and Mizzou start to quietly explore their options.

The more I have read about this, and the attitude of Texas fans overall, I have concluded that the Longhorns and Irish should explore some sort of conference with football independents where they have a home for all other sports.

Texas A&M was ready to go to the SEC and the fans were totally in favor of getting out from under their “little brother” position in the Big 12. Even as they stand to make out rather well, money-wise they are pissed.

By not joining the SEC, A&M has basically said they do not want to be part of the big time. The BOR has shown that they are not forward thinkers. A tv contract with such unequal revenue sharing will cause the same hard feelings that have plagued the conference to continue to fester in our ‘new’ 10 team league. Given a chance to join the best league in the country while in the process creating a new athletic identity for the school, the BOR chose the easy way out. The Board of Regents has delayed the inevitable for a couple more years, at the most. This conference is doomed to fail because tu’s boorish behavior will eventually drive someone else away, and the resulting instability will cause the whole process to repeat itself again.

Missouri fans are a little sick of being treated like they did anything wrong. A lot  of valid points, but claiming that were not doing anything and everything to get into the Big 10 — and when they were convinced they were, all but saying “sayanora suckers.” I’m not saying I don’t understand, but it is hard to claim picked-upon, victim status. That said, they do have valid complaints and are right to point out that nothing has changed.

And to be sure, the new TV deal not only doesn’t address the inequality in the Big 12ish, but makes it worse in every possible way.  I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again: conferences that don’t treat their members equally don’t survive.  The Big 12 will live on as long as the money’s good and the teams being treated like lesser entities don’t have better offers on the table, but that probably won’t be the case forever.  And the treatment of the supposed “lesser” programs will make sure that there is absolutely no way they can be retained with calls to loyalty or rivalry.

The astounding thing, in all of this is how the Big 12 pulled the new contract terms out at the last minute.

The Big 12 was able to stay intact thanks to the promise of an extended media deal from FSN and assurances from ESPN that it would not demand a lower rights fee with two fewer teams. No FSN deal has been signed, and nothing is expected for several weeks at the earliest. But sources say FSN has told Big 12 officials that it would increase its annual payout to as much as $130-$140M per year. It currently pays $19.5M per year for the cable TV rights, a deal that ends following the ’11-12 season. As part of its proposed deal, FSN has asked to take control of the conference’s third-tier rights that are currently controlled by rights holders IMG, ISP and Learfield, sources said. These rights include radio, local media, third-tier TV rights, corporate sponsorships, and in-stadium and arena signage.

FSN also drove up the price that ESPN payed the ACC for rights a month earlier.

Another good point, is that over the weekend, plenty of other interested parties got involved in keeping the Big 12 together. The TV side in particular had good reason to keep the Pac-16 from happening.

They don’t want some fox to come along and challenge their dominion over college football by taking over TV rights for half the country. They don’t want a conference to band together and become top dog over any of the other conferences unnamed television network has in their pocket. They sure as hell don’t want the BCS to die–no matter how much money a playoff might generate, when something is making good money, the people in charge feel very little desire to change the system to even consider the risk of losing those profits.  As the dominant power over all of college football, it was clear they had to make a move to hold onto their power or risk being cut in half with one swift stroke.

So unnamed television network promised the quick fix. They contacted the commissioner and promised enough TV money to keep the conference financially stable. They shill out the extra money for a Texas TV network (pocket change for unnamed television network compared to the vast loss Texas would be if they ended up on a competitor’s network) to keep the Longhorns placated, since that’s all they wanted to begin with. Then they promise bigger, better contracts to ensure more TV games, better exposure, etc. No matter how much more profitable Pac-10 expansion might be, nothing works as well as the magical wand of unnamed television network promising more TV for everyone, especially Texas, right here and right now.

A fine point. Fewer, larger conferences means stronger bargaining power to the conference side. While the money that conferences seem to be getting are absurd, the potential for even more looms.