Luke Winn moves Pitt up to #11 in his weekly power ratings.

It’s easy to glance at 7-foot center Aaron Gray and dismiss him as just another plodding, white giant. But after watching the Panthers fall to UConn on Tuesday, I’m convinced that Gray should get votes for the All-Big East first team, even ahead of West Virginia’s Kevin Pittsnogle. Gray put up 23 points and grabbed 12 rebounds against the Huskies’ beastly, NBA-bound front line, and is averaging a double-double (13.6 ppg, 10.9 rpg) on the season. One NBA scout I talked to said that Gray is very much on the radar for the 2007 draft. Perhaps, in retrospect, he should’ve made this top-10 list …
Next three: 2/5 at Georgetown, 2/9 vs. West Virginia, 2/12 vs. Cincinnati.

And after reading this sort of comment versus his previous ones which seemed to come from the media guide, I’m convinced that the UConn games was one of the first time he’d actually bothered to watch Pitt play this season — like so many other pundits.

A couple weeks ago we watched most of Pitt’s NYC-area players struggle when playing St. John’s at the Garden. Plenty of speculation by me that the players were distracted and looking to impress their hometown family and friends. Now Sam Young is going home — or at least close to it.

Young is friends with several Georgetown players, most notably forward Jeff Green, who played at Northwestern High School in Hyattsville, Md.

“I played on the same AAU team as he did, so it’s going to be real competitive,” said Young, who chose Pitt over a host of Division I powers, including Georgetown and Maryland.

“Georgetown has a couple of guys I played against when I was at home. I played a lot of pickup games against those guys, so I know a lot about them.”

Young lost a tooth this season while playing in a pickup game over Christmas break at Friendly High.

“I remember a lot of times I was there (at various venues in the Washington area),” he said, “and there were a lot of people there who really didn’t care who won because they were family and friends of both teams.”

Young has played with maturity far beyond what was expected from a freshman. He’s going to need that maturity if Pitt is going to win this game.

This story about Pitt spending a good deal on practice this week on trying to improve on rebounding is interesting. There is some misunderstanding though, about the challenge of rebounding against G-town. Not that they aren’t good rebounders, but there is something of a misunderstanding in my view.

Against Georgetown, the Panthers will face another stiff rebounding test. The Hoyas have 7-foot-2, 283-pound center Roy Hibbert, who averages 11.8 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Sophomore forward Jeff Green averages 11.2 points and 6.4 rebounds a game.

Georgetown is seventh in the Big East in rebounding margin.

It is true. Coming into the game the Hoyas hold a +3.8 rebounding margin. Of course Pitt has a +7.5. The primary reason, though, is that Georgetown doesn’t give opponents many opportunities for defensive rebounds. Georgetown is second lowest in the conference in rebounds/game at 32.9 while Pitt is near the top (3d) at 39.7.

As I noted previously, Georgetown plays one of the of the slowest tempos in the country. They are also one of the most efficient offenses in the country. That means they make a lot of the shots they take — limiting defensive rebounds. They lead the Big East in FG% at .487, and are 4th in 3FG% with .380 (Pitt is 6th with .447 and 9th at .351 respectively).

This story noted many of the similarities in Pitt and Georgetown in certain numbers.

The primary concern for Pitt will be keeping the defensive intensity going for the full possession each time. Georgetown will pass, and pass, looking for the open man or the guy cutting to the basket. Like Pitt, they have a very high A/B% (Assists/Baskets made) at 64.4% (Pitt is 67.4%). Georgetown also handles the ball very well with only 12.1 TOs per game (Pitt is 13.2). A big thing for Pitt’s defense, especially on the perimeter will be getting the arms up to keep them from shooting the 3s rather than worrying about knocking the ball loose or getting the steal.

This game is vital for Pitt. Not just for avoiding a 2-game losing streak, but overall in the Big East. To be in the upper-echelon in the BE (or any conference really) you need to dominate at home and be at least 4-4 on the road. Pitt is 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. After Georgetown, Pitt’s remaining road games are Marquette, Providence and WVU.

I see only 1 expected win and 2 toss-up games on that list.

For the first time since I was in high school, I’m hoping for a lot of snow over the next couple of days as they are predicting for the Cleveland area. Anything to cancel that damn open house for a preschool on Sunday during the game.

Game notes for Pitt and Georgetown (PDF for both).

Pitt hasn’t lost to Georgetown in DC since February 2000. Of course, G-town returned the favor last year by beating Pitt at the Pete.

Both Seth Davis at SI.com and Greg Doyel at Sportsline.com are going with Georgetown in this game. Davis:

It’s hard to tell which is more impressive: That Georgetown beat Duke two weeks ago or that the Hoyas haven’t lost since. Pitt is pretty impressive as well, but while the Panthers do their damage by imposing their rugged style on opponents, Georgetown is comfortable playing at a slower pace. And unlike Pittsburgh, the Hoyas consistently make shots. They lead the Big East in 3-point percentage in conference play, they’re are second in field goal percentage and they have four players averaging in double figures. Plus, in 7-2 sophomore Roy Hibbert, they have one of the few players in America who can stand eye-to-eye with Pitt’s rapidly improving behemoth, Aaron Gray.
Seth’s Pick: Georgetown 69, Pittsburgh 66

Doyel:

The winner of this game is going to the NCAA Tournament with a high seed. The loser of this game is going to the NCAA Tournament. Also with a high seed. So there’s no pressure. Let’s just enjoy the matchup of Pitt 7-footer Aaron Gray vs. Georgetown’s 7-2 Roy Hibbert. And Georgetown guard Ashanti Cook vs. Pitt’s Carl Krauser. And Georgetown forward Jeff Green vs. … wait a minute. Who does Pitt have who can stop Jeff Green? Pick: Not Levon.

I always feel better about Pitt’s chances when multiple pundits pick against them. Not that they aren’t making very good points. This is an incredibly balanced Hoya team. They aren’t as deep as Pitt, but they are very accurate shooters and incredibly balanced. All five starters average between 9.2 and 11.8 points per game. They also play a very good defense. The only clear advantage for Pitt is on the boards. Georgetown is a lousy rebounding team.

HoyaSaxa has an excellent preview/scouting report for the game.

Keys to the game:
1. Fouls. Pitt scores a lot of point via the line. The Panthers average 18 points a game via the free throw. Fewer fouls mean fewer points.
2. Aaron Gray. Gray’s ability to create points inside reduces pressure on Krauser outside. Hibbert and Green must reduce his impact and force Pitt outside..
3. Tempo. Georgetown’s success with Duke was predicated on maintaining a lead and weathering the storm. This is not a Pitt team that Georgetown can fall behind with, so keeping things close will be to Georgetown’s benefit, and there’s no 18-0 point against a team like Pitt.

Obviously, they didn’t look closely at what happened against St. John’s and Marquette. Pitt is fully capable of finding itself down 18-0. Georgetown with its variation of the Princeton offense, makes Pitt look like a fast break team. Georgetown’s tempo is one of the slowest in the country, while Pitt is closer to the average. They are, though one of the most efficient teams when they do shoot.