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January 1, 2006

Wisconsin – Pitt: Some of the Numbers

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 4:41 pm

For those that hate numbers, this will probably make your eyes glaze. I’m going to look at some of the more esoteric numbers. Overall for Pitt, given the level of their opponent, this was probably the best team game from them.

Pitt:
Poss 69.4 Pace Moderate
O-Rating 105.2 D-Rating 92.2 (Eff. Margin +13.0)
eFG% 60.2 PPWS 1.2
A/TO 1.3 TO Rate 20.2% A/B 66.7%
Floor Pct 50.8% FT Prod 28.6

Wisconsin:
Poss 69.5 Pace Moderate
O-Rating 92.1 D-Rating 105.0 (Eff. Margin -12.9)
eFG% 44.7 PPWS 1.0
A/TO 1.1 TO Rate 20.1% A/B 62.5%
Floor Pct 49.3% FT Prod 22.8

A little explanation. Stats in basketball are slowly getting more advanced, much like in all other sports.

The first line contains the possession number (explanation here). That goes to explaining the pace, which was considered “moderate.” The average pace for a NCAA game is somewhere around 69.0 possessions.

The offensive/defensive ratings are based on points per 100 possessions. So on offense you want a high number, while on defense it should be lower. The effieciency margin is simply the O-Rating – D-Rating. The higher the number on the positve end indicates just how good the team is over the course of the season. In a per-game use, it is of less value, but Pitt was below its season average in both for this game. Not surprising considering the higher quality foe faced. It still points out a team playing very, very well.

Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) is an attempt to take into account the 3-point shot and its value rather than simple FG %. eFG%= (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA.

In the Wisconsin game, Pitt’s eFG% was huge. This is Pitt’s eFG% for the whole season (including the Wisconsin game).

(286 + (o.5 x 79))/620 = 325.5/620 = .525 = 52.5% Season eFG%

It just points out how well Pitt was doing shooting, period.

Then there is Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS), which goes to understanding the efficiency of players and teams in translating shot and free throw attempts into points.

PPWS = PTS/(FGA + (0.475 x FTA))

It also serves to give better understanding the value of individual players. Here are the top 4 scorers for Pitt, the overall team, and opponents for the season.

Krauser: 1.19 PPWS = 190/(136+(.475*51))
Gray: 1.12 PPWS = 128 / (89 + (.475*54))
Young: 1.30 PPWS = 90 / (55 + (.475*30))
Kendall: 1.11 PPWS = 81 / (57+(.475*33))

PITT: 1.08 PPWS = 820 / (620 +(.475*244))
OPP: 0.94 PPWS = 610/ (564 + (.475*185))

Pitt had one of its best days, even with less than spectacular free throw shooting.

It also suggests that Gray is doing fine work at Center on offense and that Young is going to keep taking minutes from Kendall and/or DeGroat as long as he maintains the defensive effort. Kendall isn’t playing that badly, it’s just that Young is playing that much better.

Getting back to the next line, those are mostly common numbers. Pitt’s assist/TO ratio was not as good as one would like, but not surprising considering the number of offensive fouls called against Pitt in the game (those count as turnovers). That’s how Gray had 3 TO in his limited minutes. TO Rate is TO/Poss.

Floor Pct means the percentage number of possessions that result in baskets: (FGM + OR) / (FGA + Turnovers). Even with the turnovers Pitt had, they were still doing well because of the the high shooting percentage. Usually Pitt’s number is kept higher because the number of offensive rebounds it gets, but without Aaron Gray inside, that number was lower.

FTProd stands for Free Throw Production: (FTM / FGA).

A Great Way To Go Into 2006

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chas @ 11:25 am

This may simply be projection, but mild surprise seems to be the tone of the stories for Pitt beating Wisconsin. Something about the stories suggest a sort of slightly befuddled, “what?” Or that could just be me and being a bit off this morning.

The Wisconsin players are still trying to figure out what happened.

With about a half-minute left Saturday, the Pittsburgh student section, which affectionately is called the Zoo, began a chant that summed up what the University of Wisconsin refused to accept.

“It’s all over! It’s all over!”

They were celebrating what would be a 73-64 Panthers’ victory over the Badgers in front of a New Year’s Eve crowd of 11,580 at the Petersen Events Center. It was Pittsburgh’s 11th consecutive victory to open the season and its 57th in the 62 games played in the four-year-old arena.

The Panthers snapped Wisconsin’s string of six straight games holding its opponent to less than 40% shooting. They shot 55.1% and were 5 of 12 (41.7%) from three-point range.

And Pittsburgh did it without much help from its top big men, Aaron Gray and Levon Kendall. Strapped by foul trouble, the two combined for 11 points rather than their customary 20. However, freshmen Young and Tyrell Biggs picked up the slack, equaling their personal highs with 16 and eight points, respectively.

Getting Kendall and Gray off the floor was part of the Badgers’ game plan they accomplished.

“We did it and it turns out the guys that came in off the bench did just as well or even better,” Ryan said.

The play of Young and Biggs helped seal what started as a promising evening for the Badgers. An early 7-0 run gave Wisconsin a 10-5 lead, but Krauser sparked a 13-0 run that put the Badgers in a hole they never completely climbed out of.

“I don’t think we did a good job of executing,” said junior guard Kammron Taylor, who finished with five points. “They let us know that they were going to be physical with us, and we played right into their hands. That’s just something we’re going to have to continue to work on: executing our game plan.”

The fact that Pitt did this without Gray was stunning only because of the size inside for Wisconsin. Not because Gray isn’t important to the team, but because Pitt won by taking the ball to the basket. By not settling for the 3 or a jumper. They worked the ball around and got inside, despite the size of Wisconsin inside.

Wisconsin was stifled by Pitt’s defense. Despite shooting well in the second half, especially in the final 10 minutes, the Badgers were held to 42.1% shooting. The only game they shot worse was against UNC-Wilmington (40.9%).

Wisconsin does seem to be a team that has trouble playing from behind. At least that’s the thought based on both losses this season for them.

In Pittsburgh, obviously the fans story was how the freshmen stepped up, but there is still one other key.

Young, a budding superstar, played a big role in the Panthers’ 73-64 win yesterday against No. 24 Wisconsin at the Petersen Events Center with 16 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists.

Young was one of three freshmen who sparked Pitt’s win, but the major player for the Panthers continued to be the team’s senior leader — guard Carl Krauser, who had 22 points, 4 assists and 2 steals.

Krauser played with the poise of a veteran leader and made big play after big play to help the Panthers hold the Badgers off in the second half. And that’s exactly what the Panthers will need from Krauser because they are so inexperienced.

“My role as the senior leader is to make big plays and help my team win,” Krauser said. “I want to try and take this team as far as we can. I have to battle in the game. But this was a team win. We executed the offense and shot the ball from the field. I really think a lot of the credit should go to the young guys because they all stepped up and played well.”

Krauser was on the court for 35 minutes. Sam Young played the second most minutes with 28. Krauser may not be playing point as much, but he is at the center of the team. He’s the guy Wisconsin felt killed their chances at coming back.

“We got back into the game and it’s times like that where I think Krauser hit a big 3,” Tucker said. “It’s just a couple plays. We were right there. We had a couple of costly turnovers during that same period. It’s those plays right now that we have to learn we can’t do. We can’t afford that in tough situations, tough games like this.”

Things were equally tough for the Badgers beyond the arc. UW, which entered the game shooting 39.1 percent on 3s, made just three of 15.

Coach Dixon had praise for the guys running the point and playing that very good perimeter defense — Ronald Ramon and Levance Fields:

Dixon praised the play of Fields, who combined with sophomore Ronald Ramon to play 40 minutes at the point guard spot. The two did not put up big numbers — Fields had nine points and Ramon was scoreless — but they ran the offense well and played tough defense against Wisconsin’s Kammron Taylor.

“I think Ronald and Levance were a key for us tonight. The way they played and directed our team was critical,” Dixon said. “They combined for nine assists and they did not turn the ball over, which is what we are looking for from our point guards.”

Ramon was very, very good on defense and at finding guys. Fields, of course, as one of the freshmen who stepped up in the game was solid.

In all, Biggs, Young and Fields, combined for 33 points, made 13 of 19 shots and had five assists. All three played more than 19 minutes and were on the floor during the crucial stretches in the second half when Pitt was trying to hold on to the lead.

Young said that shouldn’t be a surprise because, 11 games into the season, they don’t feel like freshmen anymore.

“We don’t look at ourselves as freshmen. We are ballplayers,” Young said. “We’re competitors. We want to compete and win just like everybody else. Others from the outside look at us like freshmen, but we don’t. We’re just out there doing our best trying to win basketball games.”

It’s a great attitude. A confident one, but there will still be nights where they will look like freshmen.

John DeGroat definitely got whatever message Coach Dixon sent him in the South Carolina game. He played a very fundamentally sound game, with energy.

“It was a good win against a great program with Aaron just playing 14 mintues and in foul trouble,” Dixon said. “We played a few guys a little more than we had been. This is a game we needed John (DeGroat) to give us.”

And DeGroat, the only other senior on the team, responded by scoring five points to go with three rebounds in 24 minutes after playing only two minutes in Wednesday’s 58-51 victory at South Carolina.

The thing to remember, that while everyone points out how Pitt’s starting inside guys were limited in time and production because of foul troubles, Wisconsin’s inside presence didn’t exactly dominate.

Brian Butch, coming off an 18-point, 10-rebound game against Louisiana Tech, was held to nine points and five rebounds. Wisconsin’s other four starters besides Tucker were limited to a combined 23 points.

Tucker was the story in the second half for Wisconsin. He was the only one who could get free and score, after a slow start. In fact he was the only Badger to reach double figures.

My major concern right now is that Coach Dixon may have indoctrinated the Freshmen too much in speaking to the press.

Sam Young:

On his success playing bigger guys:

“Our coaches gave us a great scouting report. All I had to do was go out and execute. I give credit to both my coaches and my teammates.”

On the challenge of facing Wisconsin:

“This was definitely our toughest challenge. They have really good coaching and some great players. It was definitely the hardest game for me so far.”

Tyrell Biggs:

On what goes through his mind when Aaron Gray gets into foul trouble:

“I know I have to be ready to go in and bang down low. I want to make sure I’m physical and prepared to play defense.”

Levance Fields:

On having success as a freshman:

“I just want to make sure I stick to the game plan. I have confidence in my own game, but I also trust my teammates. As long as I go out there and do what the coaches tell me, I know I’ll be okay.”

On what a game like this means to him personally:

“It just boosts my confidence to know I can do what I have to do to go out there and help my team out.”

Okay, this sort of thing can’t be allowed.

More later on the numbers.

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