Before beginning, check out some real nice analysis of Pitt’s offense — especially with the sweep — by OSU blog Pistols Firing.
Oklahoma State is in an interesting position. They are favored by six points. They are at home. They and their fans feel righteously robbed of a win. Now, are in a must win situation this Saturday.
The concern in Stillwater is that their offense, while still fully there with the potential for explosiveness, has become predictable and almost exclusively about passing the ball.
In the game against Central Michigan, the Cowboys ran the ball only 15 times. 15. Against a MAC team. And they still only managed 27 points.
Cowboys running backs received just 15 carries in the 30-27 loss to Central Michigan. They gained a respectable 4.2 yards per rush, but the problem was not their production. It was their lack of opportunities.
Gundy said Justice Hill needs to touch the football more than his five carries. Gundy wishes Rennie Childs could have gotten more carries than the single touch he received in the fourth quarter. Gundy likes Carson’s attitude, and Carson did lead the team in carries, even if it was only eight.
…
Two weeks into this season, Hill and Carson lead OSU with 12 carries. That’s 12 carries total — not per game.
OSU’s run game has yet to provide a spark to the Cowboys’ offense. It ranks 116th out of 128 FBS programs in rushing yards per game. It’s 114th in yards per carry.
Those numbers are slightly deflated by OSU’s sacks allowed, but that goes for every other team, too. And even with the sacks counting as rushing attempts, OSU is just tied for 95th in rushing attempts for the season (it is 19th in pass attempts).
On Saturday, Oklahoma State did not try to establish the run early in the game.
OSU’s running backs touched the ball on 4 of 22 first-quarter plays, 5 of 14 second-quarter plays, 4 of 12 third-quarter plays and 8 of 22 fourth-quarter plays. In addition to the 15 rushes, the backs combined for six receptions (four for Carson and two for Barry J. Sanders).
Gundy said the lack of touches early in the game, when OSU handed the ball off just three times in the first quarter, was based in part on what Central Michigan’s defense showed.
It’s really, really hard to conceive that the Cowboys let the Chippewas dictate to them. Especially to open the game when a team like OSU would want to set the tone. They like to pass. They want to pass. That’s what they came out and did.
The Cowboy identity is with the pass. It has increasingly skewed that way. The balance isn’t just lacking. It is almost non-existent.
During a 28-game span in 2006-08, the Cowboys rushed for 6,668 yards, averaging 238.1 per game and 5.3 per attempt. In those 28 games, OSU gave up only 29 sacks.
In OSU’s past 28 games, there were 3,619 rushing yards, with averages of 129.3 per game and 3.5 per attempt. In those 28 games, it gave up 79 sacks.
Examining the 28-game numbers from 2006-08 against the more recent 28-game stats, there are staggering differences of more than 3,000 rushing yards and 50 sacks allowed.
If Rudolph had the security of playing behind the 2006-08 O-lines and could hand the football to a guy like Hunter, I’m confident that the Cowboy quarterback’s efficiency numbers would skyrocket. He wouldn’t be asked to bear such a heavy burden every week — or on Saturday, when OSU hosts an interesting Pittsburgh squad at Boone Pickens Stadium.
There were several issues during last week’s Failure Festival in Stillwater. A nationally discussed bust by the MAC officiating crew provided Central Michigan a chance to convert on a final-play miracle and dance away with a 30-27 victory. Cowboys coach Mike Gundy was zapped by a lightning strike on a sunny day, but OSU never should have been in that precarious position. With a talent edge and homefield advantage, OSU should have beaten Central Michigan by three touchdowns.
Ultimately, OSU lost because it couldn’t block anybody and couldn’t sustain possessions. Consequently, Gundy and offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich bailed on the run game. Running backs had combined totals of only 15 attempts and 63 yards, and OSU finished with a time-of-possession deficit of nearly 11 minutes.
There is real concern about the O-line for Oklahoma State. That could bode well for Pitt, with a defense and D-line that wants to get after the QB.
Through its first two games of the 2016 season, Pitt has 10 sacks, tying it for first among Football Bowl Subdivision teams. The number is the product of a strong core of players Narduzzi inherited, specifically defensive end Ejuan Price. More than anything, however, the sack increase is reflective of a scheme predicated on applying pressure on almost any offense it faces, a strategy that embodies its coach and staff.
“I give credit to the coaches for coaching them up,” Narduzzi said. “I think we’re keeping it simple enough that these guys can go play. Schemes are important, but if you don’t have guys that are playing fast and confident then schemes don’t mean anything. We teach them to know what to do and execute it quickly. We have guys that are buying in to what we are coaching and understand what is going on. That’s the key factor.”
Pitt’s current sack total is part of a small, two-game sample size, but it’s indicative of a larger change that came about once Narduzzi accepted the job.
In 15 games under their new coach, the Panthers have 47 sacks, surpassing the 44 sacks they had in the previous two seasons (26 games total). The trend isn’t just limited to Pitt, as any look at Narduzzi’s history would reveal a similar impact at other schools. In the two seasons before the arrival of Narduzzi and head coach Mark Dantonio, Michigan State had just 32 sacks. In just their first season in East Lansing, the Spartans had 40 sacks, tying them for 12th among FBS teams.
Schematically, the difference under Narduzzi has been extremely noticeable for players, especially those on the defensive line. Under former coach Paul Chryst and defensive coordinator Matt House, defensive linemen were primarily tasked with keeping offensive linemen occupied so they wouldn’t attempt to block the Panthers’ linebackers, who could then roam uninhibited and make plays. With Narduzzi, as well as defensive coordinator Josh Conklin, the plan is for the same defensive linemen to penetrate the offensive line and cause havoc in the backfield.
As we saw last year and in the last game, it does leave the defense prone to giving up the big plays in the passing game. OSU has more mature and better receivers than PSU. They will burn the Pitt secondary during the game. The question becomes whether Pitt can minimize the number of times it happens.
I would accept the fact that in so doing, even with successful WR chucking at the LOS the majority of the time that the inevitable release of a WR deep for an explosive play is probably going to happen, maybe even more than once. that being said you may spot the Cowboys 14 easy points if two of these go for quick scores.
But after seeing what this defense can do to disrupt the timing of a passing QB, causing him to make mistakes and cough up turn overs. I’d accept that trade off.
I’m confident that Pitt can dictate the time of possession with their running game so if we score 17 points while accepting the fact that we may get burned acouple times big over the top that still spells a win in my book. with our running game 17 on the scoreboard for the Panthers seems like it would be about the minimum that we could expect.
– We will be competitive as long as we are to run and control the time, and this game is certainly no different
Foot injuries are a b*tch.
Only avg’g 3 yards per carry rushing.
And only 5 yards per play.
And that was against 2 scrubs.
Might be catching them at the perfect time. 😉
Dr Tom – Methinks you have a valid point. I think PN’s blitz schemes save the day for us. Also we need consistent pressure from the OL, so the DBs don’t have to stay in pass protection so long. If we can pulverize the quarterback, early and often, I think we can make it much easier on our DBs. Hard to complete a pass in the prone position!
I’m excited to see what MC has in store for our offense this week. I have a feeling he won’t throw too much again – I think he (and PN) want to keep the passing attack under wraps until league games start. And I’ll bet we’ll see the same kind of mix of passing plays as we’re seeing in the running game!
If the Chips can win TOP by 11, we should be able to do even better. That in itself will stifle the passing game – hard to complete a pass from the sideline!
LET’S GO PITT – TIME TO “PONY UP”! TIME FOR A BARN BURNER! In the words of that immortal NYPD detective, John (“Roy Rogers”) McLain, “Happy Trails, Mutha F**ker!!” OkSU is Headin’ For The Last Roundup. Go Pitt – Head ’em up; Move ’em out!!
This is from my seats in the North Club looking down on the students. What an environment!
Magical. Field of Dreams moments at Heinz.