Plenty of people e-mailing, tweeting and commenting about Ken Pomeroy deflating some rather lazy analysis from college basketball writers and Pitt’s offense.

Of course, that team was Duke, and we can debate forever whether they were truly the best team in the nation but it’s unreasonable to deny that its offense was one of the most prolific last season.

This season, we appear headed down the same road. To say Pitt’s offense could hinder a tournament run is like saying Kemba Walker’s ability to hit late jump shots will hinder UConn’s chances of success. Sure, eventually Walker will come up empty on a final game-deciding possession, just as someday Pitt’s offense will have a bad game. But that misses the point.

The Panthers’ offense is very similar to Duke’s last season. They make three-point shots, they don’t commit many turnovers, and they get to the free throw line a fair amount. And as the Panthers have done in every season under Jamie Dixon, they also crash the boards relentlessly.

That Pitt’s offense has been so good, even when they have stretches of offensive silence.

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A short story that has little context.

The national telecast of the Pitt game on Versus drew an overnight rating of 8.6 in the Pittsburgh market. According to a network spokesperson, it was the highest cable rating of the evening and second overall in the market.

The top rating belonged to the Steelers, who played their final preseason game against Carolina at Heinz Field. The game drew a 30.0 rating on KDKA-2, the local CBS affiliate.

An average of more than 99,000 households tuned into the Pitt game. More than 346,000 viewed the Steelers game.

Now, am I or anyone else really shocked that even an exhibition Steelers game would be the runaway ratings winner in Pittsburgh? Especially when one is on a regular network and the other is on a less than pervasive (semi) sports channel?

No information as to how many households in the Pittsburgh market have Versus, especially compared to KDKA.

To put this in context, since it is hard to compare anything that airs on Versus except the NHL. When the Pens were playing the Red Wings for the 2009 Stanley Cup, game 2 was on Versus. That game got a 26.1 rating in Pittsburgh. Meaning that the Steelers’ exhibition also outdrew the Stanley Cup.

Also to put it in perspective, the highest watched regular season NHL game in Versus’ history (and apparently since 2004) — Pens-Red Wings — drew a 6.7 in Pittsburgh. Which the Pitt game beat.

Simulations are interesting, and seeing them used increasingly in sports creates an interesting question regarding the information input into the system.

The guys at WhatIfSports ran plenty of simulations for all the upcoming games this week. Including the Pitt-Utah game.

The Utes, expected to be TCU’s top challenger in college football’s top non-AQ conference, lose a tight one to Pitt, the Panthers winning more than 61% of the time but by an average of just a single point.

The score averaged out to 33-32. Not exactly the defensive battle expected.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team’s roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those player’s are removed from their team’s game simulation for that week.

Under normal circumstances, I would question the value of the simulations for the first game simply because the information is stale. It is based on the previous season.

In the case of this game, where the simulations result in a very, very slim win for Pitt it seems useless. Even slightly over 60% of the time with a Pitt the margin shows what a toss-up this game is.

You look for trends, history and all those things that can help you in predicting an outcome. Utah has a very interesting little factoid might make you nervous.

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham doesn’t use a wand or pull rabbits out of his hat.

Whittingham does, however, have a practice model in place to prepare the Utes for games with extra preparation time. Since October of 2007, they’ve won 13 straight contests when given more than a week to size up the opposition. The streak includes three bowl victories and a pair of season openers.

“I don’t believe it’s any magic in the practice plan,” he said. “I think it’s the way our players go about it.”

Of course, after pausing to think about the 13-0 mark, that is a little skewed, to not count the season opening loss to Oregon State and another loss to Air Force with more than a week to prepare that followed. That 13-0 mark also includes a game played 8 days later — technically more than a week, but barely seems to count in my view.

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Last year Dion Lewis grabbed the starting tailback job as a true freshman. A lot of attention was on how he beat the more heralded Ray Graham — also a true freshman. Really, though, it was that he also beat Chris Burns and Sharif Harris that made it surprising. Before the season started, this seemed like a bigger concern. I mean, Lewis didn’t even have the starting job at this time last year in camp. It was still open.

Hindsight (or even just a couple games into last season) made it obvious that Dion Lewis was a special player that was somehow missed by nearly everyone as Pitt was his only 1-A offer when he accepted. A mix of luck, shrewd evaluation, and late realizations by other programs.

Now that theme is being promoted with true freshman CB K’Wuan Williams.

“If he continues to improve he has a shot to help us,” said defensive backs coach Jeff Hafley. “We still have a long way to go before that first game, and he has a lot of work to do with the rest of us. But he’s putting himself in position to battle for a spot. There is no question about that.”

That’s quite an accomplishment for someone who did not receive another scholarship offer coming out of St. Joseph Regional High in Paterson, N.J.

Williams appears to be another recruiting coup for Hafley, who is gaining a strong reputation for being able to identify high school players out of New Jersey. Hafley is the coach who is responsible for landing another lightly recruited player from New Jersey, Heisman Trophy candidate Dion Lewis, and many other New Jersey-bred players on the roster.

One of the reasons Williams was overlooked by major-conference schools was his height. He was only 5 feet 8 as a senior in high school. He has grown a full two inches since signing day in February, which has been an added bonus for the Panthers.

It’s not to say that Williams will be starting in the first game. Antwuan Reed has one spot locked-up. Ricky Gary is a senior and has played well in training camp, so he looks like the other.

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You know, before the NCAA moved the draft withdrawal date to May 8, these revised, but still-way-too-soon lists of preseason top-25 basketball teams weren’t out until June. At least by then you also had a better idea about which teams might have injuries or academic casualties (either present or incoming class).

Here are yet a few more top-25 revisions.

Mike DeCourcy from the Sporting News comes in with the lowest ranking in to this point with a ten-spot.

10. Pitt. The Panthers need their youngest players to score. They relied too heavily on Ashton Gibbs last season and won more games than most anyone — Louisville, WVU, Providence — that could have gone either way. If sophomore Dante Taylor and some of the team’s freshmen can improve the offense, they might not need to win as many close games.

You could throw Wofford, Duquesne (2OT) and Cinci into that mix of either OT or games won by 3 points or less for Pitt. On the other side of the ledger, only two losses — Seton Hall and Xavier were by 3 points or less. And in both cases, it took a furious late effort just to make those losses that close. 6-2 in games that close. There’s a reason my liver took a few extra hits this past season.

Gary Parrish for CBS Sports updates his list with Pitt at #6.

The top three scorers — and seven of the top eight — return from a 25-win team, including Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wannamaker and Gilbert Brown. The roster still doesn’t seem imposing from an individual-talent perspective. But it’s basically the same roster Jamie Dixon used to tear through the Big East last season. There’s no reason to believe he won’t do similar things next season.

He does have ‘Nova at #4 and installs them as a slight favorite for the conference over Pitt. Lot of ‘Nova love this offseason. Seems that their late season swoon and Tourney flop is being pinned on Scottie Reynolds. How quickly they can turn.

Rivals.com is a fan of Pitt. Putting the Panthers at #4.

BUZZ: The Panthers went 25-9 overall and 13-5 in the Big East in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season. Guard Ashton Gibbs was a revelation as a sophomore, and he should continue to improve. The Panthers need to beef up the frontcourt to justify their top-five ranking. The Panthers will look to sophomore Dante Taylor, a former McDonald’s All-American, to contribute more than 4.1 points and 3.7 rebounds.

The top-2 or 3 in all of these lists seems to be some order of Duke, Michigan St. and Purdue.

If you are interested, the NCAA released attendance figures for 2009-10 (PDF). Eighteen homegames with a total attendance of 185,209. That averaged 10,289. That was 7th in the Big East and 42d overall. Not bad in a rebuilding year. Esepcially with a non-con that was light on marquee home games. Should be better this season with the expectations.

No it isn’t particularly original, but it had to be done.

Wow, the issue of Dante Taylor has become a raging point of debate.

Let’s stipulate that we don’t actually know anything for certain. And by that I mean, what is really going on in Taylor’s head. How things are going in practice. Whether he can really handle playing power forward better in the Big East. All of that. We do not actually know. We observe, we speculate. we perceive, we believe.

Let’s put aside the issue of being a McDonald’s All-American. It’s a very high honor for high schoolers, and yes it indicative of the talent and expected success the kid will have in the college level. It is not a guarantee, or a clincher that the player is a future NBA-talent.

We can agree that Taylor was considered a consensus top-30 player under the RSCI (Recruiting Service Consensus Index) nationally coming out of high school.

Using the RSCI here, in order of rank were the top PF and C’s:

• Derrick Favors –Georgia Tech
• DeMarcous Cousins — Kentucky
• John Henson — UNC
• Renardo Sidney — Mississippi St.*
• Keith (Tiny) Gallon — Oklahoma
• Mouphtaou Yarou — Villanova
• Dante Taylor — Pitt
• Ryan Kelly — Duke
• Wally Judge — Kansas State
• Alex Oriakhi– UConn
• Mason Plumlee — Duke
• Daniel Orton — Kentucky
• Milton Jennings — Clemson
• Thomas Robinson — Kansas

(*Sidney has yet to play for MSU because of eligibility issues)

I think we can all agree that Favors and Cousins are both one-and-done. They are and should be the only ones on this list aside from perhaps Sidney. After that, well it is a little more interesting.

Henson (McDonald’s All-American)is averaging under 11 min/game and until last night’s VT game had played 10 min or less for 5 straight games.

Yarou was out with Hepatitis, so measuring him might be iffy. He’s playing 13 minutes averaging a 3 and 3.

Duke’s two 6-10 freshmen, Kelly and Plumlee (both McDonalds All-American)  are combining for 6.5 pts and 4.8 rebounds in a combined average of under 23 min/game.

Thomas Robinson, who Pitt was also after as an either/or with Taylor, is down to 8.8 min/game and has played 8 minutes total in the last three (admittedly on a loaded Kansas team)  with a 3-and-3 average.

Daniel Orton is playing 13 min/game and a 3.5-and-3.6 guy for Kentucky.

Wally Judge (McDonald’s All-American) at K-State is similar to this list. 12 min, 3.6 pts, 3 boards per game.

Milton Jennings was Clemson’s biggest recruit ever — yes another McDonald’s All-American. Guess what? 11.5 min, 3.5 pts, 2.6 rebounds per game as a 6-9 forward.

The only two players (aside from Favors and Cousins) having significant impact this year are Tiny Gallon for Oklahoma (24 min, 10.6 pts, 8.4 rbds) and Alex Oriakhi for UConn (27 min., 5.4 pts and 7.8 rbds). Both were also McD’s. Neither of whom will likely see their teams in the NCAA at this point.

I pointed out in December, an article from Luke Winn about what to legitimately expect from the “elite” freshmen.

Turns out, Taylor is not doing much too different from a lot of others.

This strikes me as desperately looking for some different angle to take on the team in an early bye week.

The result is skewed statistics in the run-pass balance in the offense.

Pitt has been passing more than almost any other team in NCAA Division I-A. Only three quarterbacks among 117 others in Division I-A have attempted more passes than Pitt junior Billy Stull.

Case Keenum of Houston, Graham Harrell of Texas Tech and Ryan Lindey of San Diego State have attempted 104 passes each. Stull is next with 84 attempts.

By contrast, Pitt has 66 rushing attempts and sophomore LeSean McCoy, who led all freshmen with 1,328 yards last season, has not gained more than 100 yards in either game against Buffalo or Bowling Green.

Of the Division I-A teams that have played two games, only 32 have attempted to run less than the Panthers.

I’m sorry, after two games there’s just nothing to judge here. That’s interesting that Stull actually ranks 3d nationally in passing attempts, the actual % of passing to running is only 56 to 44. It’s higher than the 50-50 you know Wannstedt and Cavanaugh state as the goal, but not by too much to be worried.

“I would do that, too, if I were a defensive coordinator, put 9-10 guys in the box against a first-year starting quarterback and an inexperienced offensive line,” Stull said. “We do whatever a defense allows us to do. They came up to try to stop Shady (McCoy), so we saw that and we had to throw the ball to loosen them up.”

So +5 to the coaches for realizing that you have to throw a bit more to try and open things up. That said, minus -200 for sticking with screens and 5-yard tosses that far from making the opposing defense pay, gives them time to recover and stop much of a gain. That isn’t going to loosen them up.

Of course, Wannstedt thinks they are close.

Wannstedt said the Panthers are close to breaking some big plays in both phases of the offense. When that happens, opposing teams will begin to change their game plans.

“We’ve been close a couple of times,” Wannstedt said. “Maybe it’s been the read of a back or someone slipping off a block. It hasn’t been three or four guys who have cost us from being successful. It’s usually been one guy. We’ll get those [big plays]. We’re getting closer.”

Roughly translated, “I see no reason to change a damn thing.” Sigh.

No surprise that Wannstedt wouldn’t be freaked by finding out he’s 0-5 off of bye weeks at Pitt.

“I wasn’t aware of that,” Wannstedt said. “I don’t know who we played after byes, but I think every year is different, every team is different, every situation is different. It’s helping us. I walked off the field (Tuesday) and said, ‘You know what? We got a little better as a team.’

“That’s all that’s important.”

Yes, but the coach and his philosophy is unchanged.

I know. His power rankings in the season always seem to suggest a slightly dour view to Pitt. Maybe there’s bias. Maybe Pitt is a team he simply won’t give as much credit towards until it has a bigger March impact. It’s also possible.

That said, he’s also been there with praise after the Big East Tournament. His pre-pre-power rankings for the upcoming year starts Pitt at #6. I happen to like Winn, since he is one of the few basketball sports writers willing to look deeper at numbers and statistical information.

So, yes, I saw his story talking about potential effects of moving the 3-point line back 1 foot for the upcoming season. In his final section it looked like Pitt got singled out as being at risk.

But the most interesting case study will be at Pittsburgh, which was seventh-worst on that list. Last season, defenses were kept honest by the shooting of junior Sam Young (38.3 percent, 44 threes) and seniors Ronald Ramon (37.2 percent, 67 threes) and Keith Benjamin (37.0 percent, 51 threes). The Panthers’ overall percentage was dragged down by the abysmal aim of point guard Levance Fields (27.7 percent, 28 threes) and Gilbert Brown (24.4 percent, 19 threes) — both of whom will likely be in the starting lineup now that Ramon and Benjamin are gone.

If defenses sag down against Fields’ penetration, and use help to double super-sophomore DeJuan Blair in the post, can Pitt make them pay? The Panthers are finding their way into plenty of preseason top 10s, but they won’t be a contender without being able to pose some semblance of a threat from beyond 20-9.

The point, though, was he was looking at numbers from NCAA Tournament teams. In that final section — those  Tourney teams that had the lowest shooting % on 3s — Pitt was not just the only preseason top-10 team for this coming season, but the only consensus pre-season top-25 team. That makes Pitt the team with that question mark. On a national level, who cares if UNLV or Georgia is going to struggle with the transition if it isn’t even a sure thing if they’ll even be in the rankings? I take it as a bit of respect and a note on the expectations that Pitt merited the discussion.

Really, even in if the line wasn’t moving back a foot, it would still be the big question mark on  the team going into the season — and a concern for Pitt fans. A literal change of guards. With Ramon and Benjamin gone. Especially Ramon. For all his struggles through injuries last season, Ramon was still the guy expected to take and be consistent on 3s. This is why there is some thought as to Ashton Gibbs coming in right away to help Pitt with that, and why the signing of Jermaine Dixon seems a little curious considering he isn’t exactly a 3-point marksman.

Damn. Damn. Damn. Damn.

Here’s the Cliff’s notes summary of what happened in that second half/final 12 minutes.

• Notre Dame was 2-12 on 3s in the first half, and 6-12 in the second.
• Pitt 5-13 on 3s in the first, 2-12 in the second.
• Pitt let up on defense to allow ND to really get out in transition to allow quick scores
• Free throw differential — specifically Harangody 7-8 vs. Blair 2-7
• Tory frickin’ Jackson.
• Guard scoring. Pitt got 17 points in the first half from Benjamin, Fields and Wanamaker; 9 points in the second half
• ND guards had 11 in the first and 28 in the second half.
• 2nd chance points — ND 17, Pitt 9

Now to the notes.

1st half

Early in the game, Rob Kurz had 7 of the first 11 points for ND. Sam Young didn’t exactly come out fired up to play defense.

An excellent job by Pitt to keep Notre Dame from getting out on transition. To the Irish’s credit, they showed a fair amount of patience and moving the ball around to get a good shot. Especially working it inside.

ND’s 3s not falling in the first half, but they were good about attacking the basket. Or at least Tory Jackson was.

DeJuan Blair will probably be the biggest beneficiary of Levance Fields getting healthy. It’s been a struggle to get the ball to Blair with consistency since Fields went down. There are already glimpses as the ball is coming inside to him better — on the money and less fumbling for it.

Fields looked a little bit sharper than in the Marquette game — thankfully. Still has some rust, but showing a little more confidence.

The missed 3s by ND in the first half were huge. eFG% by Pitt was 50% while ND was only 38.2%.

2nd half

Early in the second half: “Ramon can’t buy a bucket, but McAlarney struggling cancels it out — for now.”

At about the 13:50 mark: “Pitt goes up by 11, but slips on defense allowing ND one of their few quick scores out of transition”

When Blair missed those two free throws at the 11:40 mark, Pitt gave up another quick score and promptly turned the ball over and ND capitalized. That sequence made it a 4 point game and brought the crowd back into it. It had the effect home court should have. The Irish picked up their intensity on both ends.

Even then, Pitt still was in the game. But then McAlarney and ND hit their groove on the 3s when they nailed 4 of 5 in a 3 minute stretch to tie and take the game away from Pitt. Pitt turned the ball over on back to back possessions — on the ND end.

Even as Pitt might have had a chance to keep it from getting away, Pitt blew the opportunity. Blair made a great rebound and fed a wide open Young who just plain blew a wide open dunk that would have brought the game back to within 3. Instead ND got it and scored again. That blown dunk will haunt Pitt fans for a while.
It is worth noting that Harangody — despite being a beast inside — is a hell of a whiner when he doesn’t get a call. His own coach had to yell at him as he came within a hair of being T’d up for what he was saying to the ref.

I hate revisionism. The play of Sam Young and now Keith Benjamin have people second-guessing their usage in 2006-07.

Q: In light of the current play by last year’s bench players, doesn’t it make you wonder what could have been if coach Dixon would have let these guys (Benjamin & Young) play more last year? The outside game they bring is exactly what we were missing in the NCAA tournament. I think he had more loyalty to Levon Kendall than he to developing the younger players.

Mike Nixon, Libertyville, Ill.

FITTIPALDO: You might have a point, Mike, but you have to remember that Young was not completely healthy last season. He had problems with both knees that prevented him from being the player he is now. If Young had been healthy all season, I believe he would have received more playing time.

Benjamin is someone who is thriving with more playing time. This is the first time he has ever been in position to play 30-plus minutes per game. I guess you can say Benjamin deserved more minutes last season, but at whose expense? Ramon? Graves? They both played vital roles on a team that advanced to the Sweet 16.

Dixon is going to have an interesting dilemma on his hands when Fields is healthy enough to return to the lineup. Does he send Benjamin back to the bench? Or does he have Fields come off the bench? I suppose these types of problems are nice to have. It means you have players who are playing well and deserving of playing time.

For whatever reason, the other obvious possibility is having Ramon coming off the bench. As he was before the injuries. Several other points.

Even while Young was struggling to get healthy, Pitt was trying to get him more time. The early 2006 experiment was to play Young at the small forward. That would have gotten him on the court more as spelling both Kendall at PF and Cook at SF. We now know he was hobbling, but he wasn’t comfortable at the small forward. Struggling, especially, on the defensive end. Ultimately, if he wants to make the NBA, he has to look to that position. With his range showing this year, he has a chance.

Prior to this season, Bejamin never showed the shooting touch, patience, or restraint. He also struggled in defensive assignments, because he was more eager to work the offensive end. I know the contra argument is that he was only getting limited minutes, and was looking to make them count and show what he could do. The problem with that, is it only got him yanked faster when he’d rush down the court and hoist a shot. It finally seemed to get through to him this year. Even before he got into the starting line-up with injuries, he was just playing within the team. So much better.

Finally, both Young and Benjamin are better and like playing much more up-tempo. The team’s configuration last year with Aaron Gray just wouldn’t work that way. In that respect, Levon Kendall was a much better compliment inside.

Look at the numbers last year. Young shot .458 from the field and .310 on 3s. I know, I howled “NO!” when Young hoisted from outside last year. Benjamin was even more brutal — .420 from the field and .255 on 3s, not to mention below 50% on free throws.

Keep perspective.

Okay, late watching on this. So, three years to the day, Pitt suffered its only non-con loss at the Pete since it opened. Yes, the Bucknell game. What were the odds that Pitt would play another Patriot League team on the same day?

Watching in the first half, the thing that immediately occurred to me was that the offense looks fine, but the defense will be a big issue. Benjamin especially. He continually cheats to the basket either to try and help or be in position to get a rebound. He was the biggest issue to me in leaving his man open on the perimeter for Lafayette to get open threes. Either he didn’t take it seriously or he had a little too much confidence in his own ability to recover and getting back. It wasn’t happening.

Interestingly, while Ramon may have been the de facto point guard, he wasn’t bringing the ball up everytime. It seemed that Pitt was trying to get others to do it. May not be a bad idea since Ramon struggles bringing it up and is susceptible to traps and the press.

The only thing I can figure as to why Pitt played so far off the players on the perimeter was that they were preparing for Villanova. It’s not like Lafayette has guards who could take Pitt off the dribble. Villanova with Reynolds and Fisher, however…

That said, Lafayette was taking and making some hellaciously deep threes. Pitt really struggles with the screens. Sam Young does not like to rotate out on them.

Think the Pitt coaches worked over Biggs on taking shots a lot closer to the basket? No threes attempted by him this time, and the deepest shot he took was maybe a 10 foot baseline jumper. That said, it was hard to judge his game considering the lack of size by Lafayette. It allowed him a lot of chances for easy put backs.

There were 13 turnovers by Pitt. Not terribly surprising in the first game without Fields. That Young had 5 (all in the first half) and Ramon had 0 is something of a surprise.

Ramon also had 10 assists along with some excellent shooting — 11 points on 3-4 (all 3s) shooting.

Hopefully the game will also serve as a bit of a confidence builder for Wanamaker. Shot 2-3 for 5 points. He had lots of 2s. Assists, rebounds and turnovers. And 1 steal. Big concern he might be a bit wound for going home to Philly this Saturday.

It was a record number of 3s made against Pitt, but despite that Pitt got the win.

Near the end of the game, Bob Sanders actually clarified the football player stuff. It isn’t necessarily to play them like Cinci was forced to do. It was to have a few extra bodies for practice. That actually makes a lot more sense.

The most noticeable thing at the end of the game. No Gary McGhee. I’m guessing that Coach Dixon has determined that he must redshirt him.

Hard to judge a lot from this game, other than the fact that the team needed a regrouping/patsy game to get used to playing without Fields as well as Cook. That said, it was nice at the end when it was a complete laugher to see the players smiling and being highly amused at Cassin Diggs picking up a charging foul in the final couple minutes.

Pitt’s second half shooting was astoundingly accurate. Pitt shot well in the first half at 15-27, but was an amazing 20-25 (8-9 on threes) in the second half. Putting it this way, Pitt’s effective FG % in the second half was an astounding 96%.

Overall, Pitt looked, played and the numbers reflected a much better effort and team in the second half.

Still don’t know what it means for this Saturday and the rest of the Big East slate.

Nice that Cliff Stoudt has given a verbal to Pitt. Looks like there will be some increased depth at the QB spot in the future.

The euphoria over the final game of the season is reasonable, but it also guarantees little change to the coaching staff despite a crying need.

I’d like to believe that Paul Rhoads has finally learned the value of aggreassive, attacking defenses and that things will be different. The problem for me — beyond a rather calcified and hardened position/bias on this issue — is seeing one-half of a season of that hardly erases the previous 7 1/2. I’d also note that aside from Scott McKillop completely exploding on the scene this season, there was not a whole lot from the linebacker position Rhoads was coaching. Little development and growth there.

In my ideal dream scenario, Rhoads bolts for another DC job or a minor head coaching gig while ostensibly hot. Greg Gattuso gets promoted to DC and still works with the defensive line. Gattuso has really impressed me since coming to Pitt from Duquesne. The D-line has been the strength of the team this season, his development of Romeus and keeping the line strong even after Mustakas went down was impressive.

Paul Dunn still needs to go as O-line coach. It was nice to see the Pitt offensive line really blow the Mountaineers off the line last week, but again, one game does not change the ineptitude and poor play from the rest of the season and prior seasons.

Special teams. Ugh. That’s Charlie Partridge, who is a good recruiter but hasn’t exactly distinguished himself with his coaching. Oh, and he also works with the linebackers.

I’m probably in the minority, but even before the final game, I was and still am fine with Matt Cavanaugh coming back next season as OC. Just too many key injuries and a bad O-line performance to put all the blame on him. I also thought he showed the previous season that he could get more out of the offense. I do think he needs to add more elements of the spread into the offense, and stop trying to instill a completely pure West Coast Offense. He would benefit from visiting some other schools and coaches to pick some brains — Florida, Tulsa, Cal and Arizona State would be on my short list of places to visit.

Here’s something very interesting, via Troy Nunes IAAM, a basic breakdown of recruiting ranking versus performance for college football. Pitt was second biggest underachiever in the Big East behind only Syracuse. This is a blunt instrument, not a fine tool. Nonetheless, it is still instructive and interesting.

These are the D-1A teams Pitt has faced to date. I’m not even going to discuss Grambling since 1-AA shouldn’t be in the conversation.
Team ———— Tot. Off (rank) — Rush O — Pass O

Eastern Michigan — 320.60 (104th) — 139.5 — 181.1

Michigan State — 427.40 (32nd) — 210.9 — 216.5

UConn ———- 367.33 (78th) — 174.78 — 192.56

Virginia ——– 329.1 (101st) — 128.70 — 200.40

Navy ———— 438.00 (24th) — 333.33 — 104.67

Cinci ———— 429.44 (31st) — 167.67 — 261.78

Louisville ——- 510.44 (6th) — 149.56 — 360.89

Syracuse ——- 282.67 (114th) — 68.67 —- 214.00

Here’s what Pitt’s D did in those games

Team ———– Total O — Rushing O — Passing O

E. Michigan —– 145 ——— 39 ——— 106

Michigan St. —- 327 ——— 144 ——– 183

UConn ——— 289 ——— 115 ——– 174

Virginia ——– 342 ——— 173 ——— 169

Navy ———- 497 ——— 331 ——— 166

Cinci ———- 358 ——— 121 ——— 237

Louisville —— 356 ——– 120 ——— 236

Syracuse —– 265 ——– 30 ———– 235

By the numbers and having watched all of these games there are 3 games where the defense played well (Michigan State, Cinci and Louisville); 3 games where the defense was poor (UConn, Virginia and Navy) and 2 games where the defense was average (Eastern Michigan and Syracuse). Yes, I will credit the defense with a good effort in the Louisville game, despite the late breakdown that allowed the TD.

In traditional run defense, there is improvement. Notice, though, that in the 3 games where the defense was “poor” the common factor was a mobile QB and teams that at least used elements of the spread. All three had QBs who had at least 12 rushes. Some things have remained constant.

Two of Pitt’s remaining three games are against teams with mobile QBs (Matt Grothe, USF and Pat White, WVU). The other game features one of the top RBs in the country (Ray Rice, Rutgers). Rutgers has used back-up QB Jabu Lovelace (probably the best name in the Big East, even ahead of WVU’s John Holmes) in option situations. How much Pitt sees of him will also depend on the health of Mike Teel who has been banged up.

In half of Pitt’s D-1A games, they have played teams in the bottom third of offensive production nationally. Three who are in the 100 level.

It’s hard not to think a little of last year’s 5-1 start with media talk of the defensive improvement. Even as Pitt had only faced one team (and lost) with a potent offense.

Misleading stats cut both ways. We’ve read how Coach Wannstedt talked up Pitt’s pass defense as being one of the tops in the country statistically, while then excusing the lack of turnovers as because teams have big leads and didn’t have any pressure to do much other than run the ball. At the same time, he talks of how the run defense has improved and excuses the Navy game as an aberration (or “not reflective”).

Obviously reality gets examined this weekend. Pitt will play a team with prolific passing, but a struggling running game.

The Cardinals (4-4, 1-2 Big East Conference) still rank fifth in the Football Bowl Subdivision in total offense at 529 yards per game, but they have been held below 100 rushing yards in four of their past five games.

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Pittsburgh (3-4, 1-1) will enter Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium tomorrow ranked

Nationally, that puts Pitt’s run defense at 54th in the country. Louisville’s longest run from scrimmage this season has been 20 yards. Of course with one of the best QBs and probably the best pair of receivers in the country, the running game hasn’t been the problem. It’s been the Louisville Defense.

The running game leads into a topic of Coach Wannstedt in the papers today: Time of Possession.

If Wannstedt has it his way, though, standout Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm will be doing a whole lot more standing and watching than actually playing.

“[Controlling the clock] would be our objective every week,” Wannstedt said. “That is one of those things that shows up on the stat sheets that people don’t talk about usually. They talk about the obvious — touchdowns, interceptions, sacks — but possession time is a key and there are so many benefits to that, particularly when you are playing a high-scoring team and you want to minimize the number of possessions they have.

“If you are a running team and you can control the clock and you have a controlled passing game — and we’re that way now — I think the theme is, don’t stop ourselves. It is amazing how, even in last week’s game, we’re at the 9-yard line going in and we have a holding call and we settle for a field goal.”

Wannstedt said that even if the Panthers do control the clock on offense and even if they don’t turn the ball over, they still will have their hands full trying to figure out how to stop the Cardinals.

Unless there is a huge disparity, time of possession is a relatively minor stat for a game and the season. Louisville ranks 5th in the country in ToP

So, while the running game for the Cardinals hasn’t been much, they still use plenty of clock moving the ball with the pass.

Pitt comes in at 47th at 30:24. The difference between being 23 in the country is just under a minute (Toledo, 31:21). The difference of being 70th is the nearly the same (Oklahoma, 29:25).

Zeise probably nailed the issue at the end of the article.

Although time of possession is one key statistic from the win against the Bearcats the Panthers would love to duplicate tomorrow, it will only be possible if they duplicate another — turnovers.

The Panthers forced three of them and turned the ball over only once, a big difference from the first six games of the year when they had 16 turnovers and forced only six.

More possessions leads to a larger ToP. To do that against Louisville, it is going to have to come predominantly from interceptions. Brohm has only 6 interceptions in 8 games. Pitt coaches are essentially talking scared about blitzing.

“He makes you pay for (blitzing),” Rhoads said. “First of all, they’ll ‘max-protect’ in a heartbeat. If they sense any pressure, they’ll keep seven players in to block and protect him. Now, it doesn’t matter how great the scheme or what you bring. Your chances of getting there are certainly slimmed up.”

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Even if blitzing isn’t the answer, the Panthers are planning to pressure Brohm in some way, shape or form.

“You always got to get to him and touch him some how, some way,” Phillips said. “You let him sit back there, of course he’s going to pick you apart because he’s a great quarterback. You’ve got to get in his face, get after him and make him hurry some decisions.”

If not, Pitt’s secondary could be in for a long day.

“It’s a big challenge,” Phillips said. “We’re really going to see where our defense is at.”

Scary thought.