A few basketball related things.
Last week I noted the ACC schedule for basketball will go to 20. Really didn’t dig deep into that side of it, and I still don’t think I am right now. One thing to consider is how that lessens the impact of the non-con schedule in terms of RPI, BPI, KenPom, etc.
On the one hand you now have a portion of the schedule shrunk by over 15%. That same side of the schedule that we and the punditry will harp on for bubble teams come March. With the increase to the conference schedule, the value of the non-con should reasonable shrink as it is only 33% of the schedule.
The decrease in the non-con schedule will also flatten the difference — at least among ACC teams — in their non-con strength of schedule.
UNC Coach Roy Williams is the first to sound off on the impact of the schedule changes.
Roy Williams went on an ESPN podcast earlier this week and said because of this, the UK-UNC series is almost certainly going to end come 2019-2020.
“My feeling right now, and it could change by ’19, heck I could be fired by ’19,” Williams said, “but my feeling right now is to play our conference schedule, play one exempt event where you have really good teams, and other than that play home games to help out your revenue and help out your budget. My business manager, she drives me crazy because we play 15 or 16 home games, and she sees some other teams playing 20 or 21 or 22. That’s what she wants. She wants more revenue coming in. So right now that’s my thinking. … We have the ACC/Big Ten (Challenge) and that is not going to go away. So it’s 21 already scheduled and play one exempt event.”
…
And when asked specifically if this 20-game authorization would put an end to UNC’s series with Kentucky, Williams said, “Oh yeah. … Why would I need to do that?”
[Emphasis added.]
For Pitt it is 22 games, with the City Game. The possibility of some sort of annual game with Penn State being on the table — and potentially neutrally sited. Who knows about WVU. Pitt’s non-con will be patsies, but so will most other ACC teams simply because of the economy of it. In no small part because Pitt will need the home games.
Including an exhibition, Pitt played 19 home games last year. This year — while still with 18 conference games — the number of home games will be 18.
I don’t see this as a bad thing, but it is definitely a change. One that will take some time for adjustments for the fans and those analyzing schedules.
Shifting over to basketball strategy, Ken Pomeroy did a study on coaches playing players with 2 fouls late in the first half. It’s not a perfect study, as it can skew to “risk takers” more at the mid-major and lower level simply because those programs don’t have the same depth and aren’t in as much a position to play their bench as much. Or someone like Jim Boeheim at Syracuse who rarely has much of a bench that he uses.
Here’s the data on all 321 active D-I coaches that have at least one year of experience in the books since the 2009-10 season:
Minutes Minutes PctMin Rank Coach (Seasons) Team 2-Fouls On On 1 Larry Hunter (7) Western Carolina 2135 1189 55.7 2 Keith Richard (6) Louisiana Monroe 1777 939 52.8 3 Ron Hunter (7) Georgia St. 1925 948 49.2 4 Jim Boeheim (7) Syracuse 1651 810 49.1 5 Greg Kampe (7) Oakland 2209 1067 48.3 6 George Ivory (7) Arkansas Pine Bluff 1758 849 48.3 7 Dave Simmons (7) McNeese St. 1555 707 45.5 8 Randy Bennett (7) Saint Mary's 1782 804 45.1 9 Matthew Driscoll (7) North Florida 1690 756 44.7 10 Bob Walsh (2) Maine 576 254 44.1 ...132 Steve Fisher (7) San Diego St. 1475 304 20.6 133 Bobby Hurley (3) Arizona St. 830 171 20.6 134 John Groce (7) Illinois 1942 400 20.6 135 Tim Craft (3) Gardner Webb 623 128 20.5 136 Corey Williams (3) Stetson 683 140 20.5 137 Kevin Stallings (7) Pittsburgh 1914 392 20.5 138 Mark Few (7) Gonzaga 2183 446 20.4 139 Pat Chambers (7) Penn St. 2734 557 20.4 140 John Becker (5) Vermont 1271 256 20.1 141 Steve Prohm (5) Iowa St. 1584 318 20.1 142 John Gallagher (6) Hartford 1570 309 19.7 143 Earl Grant (2) College of Charleston 747 147 19.7 ...261 Rick Pitino (7) Louisville 2122 233 11.0 262 Todd Bozeman (7) Morgan St. 1733 190 11.0 263 Lon Kruger (7) Oklahoma 1726 189 11.0 264 Mike Jones (5) Radford 1429 156 10.9 265 Marty Simmons (7) Evansville 1992 216 10.8 266 Jerry Slocum (7) Youngstown St. 1773 192 10.8 267 Joe Callero (7) Cal Poly 1406 151 10.7 268 Scott Cherry (7) High Point 1428 152 10.6 269 Tad Boyle (7) Colorado 2074 219 10.6 270 Ron Cottrell (7) Houston Baptist 1983 209 10.5 271 Nicholas McDevitt (3) UNC Asheville 755 79 10.5 272 Jon Coffman (2) IPFW 411 43 10.5 273 Rick Ray (4) Southeast Missouri St. 1102 115 10.4 274 Greg McDermott (7) Creighton 1607 167 10.4 275 Jamie Dixon (7) TCU 1437 149 10.4 276 Brad Brownell (7) Clemson 1509 156 10.3 277 Will Wade (3) VCU 743 75 10.1 ...290 Greg Gard (1) Wisconsin 312 28 9.0 291 Mick Cronin (7) Cincinnati 1796 160 8.9 292 Willie Hayes (5) Alabama A&M 800 71 8.9 293 Tom Moore (7) Quinnipiac 1839 161 8.8 294 Tom Izzo (7) Michigan St. 1781 155 8.7 295 Keith Walker (2) Delaware St. 437 38 8.7 296 Dedrique Taylor (3) Cal St. Fullerton 588 51 8.7 297 Glenn Braica (6) St. Francis NY 1715 148 8.6 298 Montez Robinson (1) Alcorn St. 177 15 8.5 299 Bob McKillop (7) Davidson 2113 175 8.3 300 Bashir Mason (4) Wagner 1329 110 8.3 301 Michael White (5) Florida 1459 120 8.2 302 Chris Beard (1) Texas Tech 198 16 8.1 303 Eric Konkol (1) Louisiana Tech 243 19 7.8 304 Archie Miller (5) Dayton 1287 100 7.8 305 Tony Bennett (7) Virginia 1474 102 6.9 306 Matt Matheny (7) Elon 1867 129 6.9 307 Mark Fox (7) Georgia 1826 126 6.9 308 John Beilein (7) Michigan 1277 88 6.9 309 Jay Spoonhour (4) Eastern Illinois 803 54 6.7 310 Pat Kelsey (4) Winthrop 867 58 6.7 311 Greg Lansing (6) Indiana St. 1312 84 6.4 312 Gregg Marshall (7) Wichita St. 1844 112 6.1
This is very much a broad stroke look, but it does reveal at bit. Including the fact that Kevin Stallings will be willing to take chances late in the first half.
Jamie Dixon continues to say nice things about Pitt and the city of Pittsburgh.
Kevin Stallings is being positive and continuing to regularly make media rounds.
The article on whether Pitt can step up to a higher level in college basketball is interesting. I wouldn’t mind revisiting it with a little more detail. I think it gets a little chicken-egg thing going with revenue and expenses. Especially compared to the programs that are already at the higher level. That’s a little too reductive in the college basketball model. Obviously recruiting has to be better. To expect consistently pulling 5-stars and McD players is silly. But doing better for 4-star and high 3-star is not unrealistic. A lot more to unpack — including the observation that the programs that have elevated and stayed elevated also have had or still have an iconic coach who has been there for a couple decades.
They also both have “weak links”, will this be their Achilles heal or will they overcome?
So next year will be “rebuilding” years for both, it looks like football has more spare parts, but basketball can rebuild faster with good recruiting.
Glad to see Chas crushing his writer’s block, should be a lot of good stories happening soon.
Vote for playing WVU every year instead of Joe Knewers.
Coach Howland and Dixon built our very good teams over the years. We are not in a position to “hire” teams with one and done’s and transfers. In fact, if I were a HC I would not even consider one and done type kid at Pitt. It just does not work for our program.
And this wasn’t a one year thing. Many years.
Cheatin Tarholes !
That might work at a place like Vanderbilt, where like Duke, the preppies get the majority of the calls.
But I doubt it works at Pitt, where the majority of the calls tend to go against us.
Tom Izzo #294
Bob McKillop #299
Archie Miller #304
Tony Bennett #305
Jon Beilein #308
Greg Marshall #312
I tend to believe you save your better players and your fouls for the 2nd half.
Especially if you’re not one of these schools like Duke & UNC that tend to get the calls.
But what is impossible to say is if his guys would have scored more points and been better for the team staying in the game as opposed to being pulled. No one can say. But, like I said earlier, I’m taking the side of math. Who cares if they foul out too early if they score 10 more points that they otherwise wouldn’t have at the end of the first half?!
Anyway, I’m not a coach, but I’d leave them in. Of course, that could be why I’m not a coach. That and a million other reasons.
I’d rather even watch Wake Forest than Central Maryland Southern State.
