James Conner has missed most of the season. Chad Voytik isn’t starting. The offense is 113th in the country in yards per game. Tyler Boyd is…ok, still doing Boyd things. But, if I told you those first three things would be where Pitt stands after six games back in August, what would you expect Pitt’s record to be? If you said 5-1 you’re lying to yourself. The likely answer would be that Pitt is a two or three win team hoping to win six and get another bowl.
Except the team is 5-1, ranked, undefeated in the ACC, and somehow mathematically still in the playoff chase. Pitt won’t make the playoffs, but that’s still a crazy fact. If there’s one thing to take away from a team that is likely less talented than last year, it’s this:
COACHING MATTERS
Outside of a healthy Ejuan Price and switching Ray Vinopal for Jordan Whitehead (albeit with different roles), the defense for Pitt is mostly the same personnel. Some players have taken an obvious step forward (Maddox and Grigsby notably), but scheme and development have been the major difference makers.
The easiest stat to spot the improvement is sacks. Pitt already has more sacks in 2015 (22) than all of 2014 (19). 11.5 of those sacks are from LBs and DBs, which shows good scheme and timing with blitzes. Matt House’s biggest flaw was poor play-calling late in games. He was aggressive and passive at the wrong times. He would abandon what worked at the worst time. Conklin has done an incredible job late in games with dialing up the correct calls.
Offensively, Chaney’s group is finally developing an identity without James Conner. Against Georgia Tech a good mix of RBs saw the ball, but Ollison is the bell cow. The group isn’t dominating, but they’re doing enough to keep the offense run centric. Nate Peterman leads an efficient passing game that is starting to develop big plays that don’t involve #23. Tyler Boyd’s ability to work short routes on key third and fourth downs is a great addition to his jaw-dropping playmaking ability. The offensive line is starting to gel, especially in pass protection.
Ignoring home/away, the schedule does get much tougher in the second half. Pitt’s first half opponents are currently 20-20, with Iowa skewing that due to their 7-0 record. That means Pitt’s wins are over five teams with a combined 13-20 record. The remaining opponents are a combined 25-12 and all but Louisville and Syracuse are 4-2 or better. Pitt has yet to beat a FBS team better than 3-4.
The good news is that Pitt is much more battle tested in close games than the three most important remaining opponents: UNC, Duke, and Miami. UNC, Duke, and Miami have each played in two one score games, all going 1-1. Pitt has four against FBS opponents with a 3-1 record. If the early road tests have done anything, it has given the team faith that they can win close games.
My prediction for the second half of the season*: 3-3 and second place in the Coastal. Pitt won’t beat both Duke and UNC and one of those two will end up with the title. Wins over Cuse and Louisville ensure the best season since Wannstedt was fired but Pitt will go 1-3 against Duke, UNC, ND, and Miami. Regardless, 8-4 would still be a huge success for Narduzzi in year one.
*But wait…why is there a * you ask? This guy is that *. If James Conner returns and is healthy, I predict Pitt will win every game he starts and finishes. The running game without him has been good enough, but his return would make it great. This defense plus a great running game and an efficient passing game can beat almost anyone in the country. With Conner, Pitt could end up in a BCS Bowl (after losing to Clemson, which makes the playoffs, and taking the ACC’s BCS spot).
What’s your second half prediction?
Jester Weah has ZERO catches !! LOL
PREDICTION:
Syracuse-W
UNC-W
ND-L
Duke-L
L-ville-W
Miami-L
Looks like 8-4 for me.
Interesting comment you had by Hamlin, but you mentioned that was in August and I’d have to think that a lot could have changed by now in his eyes with Narduzzi & Conklin showing a nice and rapid change on what their defensive system is capable of.
Hamlin would be another star of a stacked Defense and I’m sure the Narduzzi’s record for getting some great DBs into the NFL could help seal that deal.
We really do need to land a great TE though. Not getting Clark hurts but know there are other fish in the sea…I just hope they realize that Pitt has re-emphasized it’s use of TEs to move the ball down the field!
Juwann Winfree and Aaron Matthews would also be some huge pickups for our WR corps.
All these guys know of Pitt is the last 10 years or so, especially the last 5 …. while they see our competition on prime TV all the time, and have attended packed stadiums. They are 17 year olds and are being coddled by everyone. Don’t be annoyed if they choose elsewhere
We are still a long way from being one of those, but for the first time in a long time it looks like we have a coach that has a chance of getting us into the top twenty, and hopefully keeping us there.
For the elite player there is still a better chance at cracking the starting lineup early at Pitt.
We can also see the difference it makes when Pitt keeps the superstars at home, Boyd and Whitehead are the two real difference makers on the team. It should also help with attendance to have the local guys as a core. It is all a part of bringing Pitt back to prominence.
Staying at home allows more of their friends and family the opportunity to attend their games.
Narduzzi and Chaney’s national reps are also attracting interest that we didn’t have since Wanny. Peterman is already making a difference, Hendrix and maybe Winfree next year. Too bad we lost the TE to Syracuse, but at least he was looking at us.
Staying in the top 25 is the most important thing to keeping the attention on Pitt.
The kid went to Syracuse to play with his friends, maybe Hamlin will do the same.
He is an excellent Ass’t AD and IMO would have made a great successor to Peterson… although I like Barnes now also. He also one who has the power behind the scenes as it were and wields it well.
The only time he had ever asked me to modify an article was when I publish something that was personal and I didn’t realize it. Never once a suggestion of how to write or what I should or shouldn’t say about the Pitt program.
We’ve developed a nice ‘off the record’ friendship over the years also which is very nice. He and Pat Bostick jr are very valuable to the athletic department.
Syracuse –W
North Carolina–W
Notre Dame–L but very very close
Duke–W
Louisville–L
Miami–W
So that’s 9-3 with an invite to Russell Bowl in Orlando against West Virginia!!
Also a long tradition of Woodland Hills kids at Pitt.
Winter trips to Miami and the Southern schools, much more appealing than Wisconsin and Nebraska.
The back half of the schedule this year, while primarily at home, is difficult. We need to win Saturday to continue this momentum. H2P!
Syracuse game the key to our season
a W means 6-1 with the best competition
ahead. Worse case go 2-3 and finish
8-4. The 2-3 finish includes beating
the typically over rated over hyped ND!!
8-4 gets a bowl in the sunshine state.
********
“I try to get north and south as fast as possible and not get as lateral because I’m not as fast as the other guys in the room,” Ollison said. “It’s things like that, you try to bounce a play to the outside and you realize that might’ve worked in high school or something but that’s not going to work here because these guys are fast and they’re all on scholarship, too.”
********
Pretty much the point I’ve made about Ollison… his running style… and its LIMITATIONS.
But he’s being asked to run like the BIG BACK he is. And so far it’s taken its toll on his ability to stay HEALTHY and at his BEST.
Makes you appreciate James Conner that much more.
PSU hasn’t played WVU since 1992, and hasn’t played Pitt since 2000.
In all those years – someone hasn’t thought to get those teams in a bowl game? It’s hard for me to believe when it seems so natural.
If he doesn’t come here, it’s ok, really,
it is.
Not the Penn State fans sour grapes when Pitt gets a recruit, “oh, we didn’t want him anyway”, just realistic as I’ve always been with recruiting.
We will not get them all. The big recruiting teams, Ohio St. ND, USC, do not get them all.
They lose out on recruits to other schools too.
It’s the way it is.
For us, the main thing, is that recruiting is on a huge upswing, a massisve uptick!!
Would love to have Mr. Hamlin.
If he doesn’t come to Pitt, don’t let that bring you down one iota. Good luck to him where ever he chooses.
We are rocketing upward and onward.
Pitt will be wearing gold jerseys with white pants this Saturday.
It’s actually a pretty nice look.
The bad thing is, that it’s against Syracuse who will be in bold blue and orange, there is going to be an overabundance of color on your tv screen Saturday. Your screen is going to be full of loud colors.
@Reed I thoroughly enjoyed my conversation with EJ on the ride home from work. He graduated in 1992. Most of my discussion was regarding returning to the mustard gold of the Johnny Majors 1/Jackie Sherrill era. He is getting a set of car magnets in the mustard and blue that ai of car magnets in the mustard and blue of that era.. And sending along a check… I first donation in a long time… But Pitt has kept me in a very bad mood for a long time until coach Duzz came to town. Let’s keep pushing this mustard thing blather boyz… I have seen so many uniform changes it’s freaking unbelievable … I still don’t get the white as a dominant part of our wardrobe. It just needs to go away. Hail to Pitt! We upset Clemson in the ACC championship and go to a BCS bowl game…
Like I said, not a bad look, saw it on a post from the team equipment manager.
Would look good at home, against a team in white or maybe away against a team with white home pants.
All very minor for sure, but it’s gonna be some brash color combo on Saturday!!!
Actually, I’ve found for some reason Syracuse in the dome is brash to begin with, plus the tv camera’s aren’t put in a good spot. Lousy angles.
Not a favorite of mine watching a home Syracuse game when they are on the tube.
Of course you are not going to get them all, but where would we be if we didn’t get Dorsett or Marino?
These guys are the difference makers. They elevate you to the next level. When guys like Terrell Pryor, Sean Lee, Brandon Short, Lavar Arrington, Jason Taylor, Gronkowski get away it can make a big difference. They are the difference between winning and losing a lot of games.
The allure right now is we’re correcting our course, potential to get early playing time, have an great and energetic coaching staff and have an interesting schedule over the next couple of years (OK St, PSU, Clemson, ND) while these kids go through Pitt for 4 yrs. Not to mention hopefully seeing us in the New Years bowl lineups!
Syracuse- W- 27-20- HCPN won’t allow the ranking to get inside the teams’ head.
UNC- L- 19-21- Short week dooms the team.
Notre Dame- L- 27-31- This will be a battle, but I think their RB is the best we’ll see this year.
Duke- W- 45-42- Blewitt redeems himself after Narduzzi and Chaney set the ball in the middle of the field.
Louisville- W- 24-10- no rock solida analysis, just a feeling.
Miami- W- 27-13- Golden will lose control of the team as his backside will finally feel that hot seat.
Bowl- Pinstripe Bowl against 6-6 PSU.
1. SYR. – WIN
2. N.C. – WIN
3. N.D. – Lose *(if Conner plays we WIN)
4. Duke – Lose
5. Lou. – WIN
6. MIA. – WIN
(If Boyd or Peterman get hurt, all bets off)
And, I believe that is the direction the program is going in the next few years, we will be getting more and more of those types of players.
I’m just saying, in Hamlin’s case, people need to know the score, so they don’t have a the sky is falling reaction if he goes elsewhere.
In the euphoria of getting a couple great recruits the past couple weeks, and recruiting starting to roll and pick up speed, one could get upset if he doesn’t commit to Pitt.
Fact is, Hamlin has always been a long shot.
He has always had Ohio State and Notre Dame out there staring him in the face, and has never said otherwise. Also Penn State for awhile.
So, I guess all I’m saying, is I’ve never thought he was coming to Pitt to begin with, so if he commits somewhere else, it will not be a shock to me one bit, nor will it ruin
my Pitt buzz.
When was he hired, Dec., Jan.,???
I’ve always looked at a coach to get 2 or 3 years to see how his recruiting is.
That it is this good at this time is great, but we’re still in our infancy of the Narduzzi era.
Who knows, publications have been wrong before, maybe he does end up at Pitt??
L to NC
L to ND
W over Duke
W over Creeps from U of L
W over Miami
4-2 in second half keeping streak of at least 3 losses since 1981 alive.
But still a damn fine record IMHO.
11 WINS 1 LOSS
Win 1 out of 2 against UNC and Duke
Win 1 out of 2 against ‘Ville and the U
Lose to ND
Otherwise 7-5 and some of the enthusiasm erodes, unless we can win the bowl game handily.
As for recruiting I would love to see a 4* OL and DL signed along with a few 3* LBs. With Ford, Whitehead, Webb and Maddox already in the fold for several more years I’m not troubled by any decision Hamlin makes.
I think Conner comes back next year and makes a run at the Heisman.
11-1
But, realistic expectations are what you want for predictions.
Syracuse-W
UNC-W
ND-L
Duke-W
Louisville-W
Miami-W
10-2 it looks like for me.
But, HCPN knows ND from his MichSt days and I could see us beating them in a wild home game that would rock Heinz Field like the Steeler fans do.
ACC championship game – loss a close one to Clemson or FL St., and then win the bowl game to end 11-3
First we need to focus on Cuse and squeeze out another road victory.
HTP!
I think we finally have a coaching staff that is excellent and will prepare our players so that they’re ready and pumped up to win. It’s apparent that our team is having fun! When you have fun, you play loose and relaxed.
Let’s get this win on Saturday! H2P!!!
