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September 28, 2015

So You Wanna Win the Coastal…

Filed under: ACC,Football,Narduzzi — Justin @ 2:13 pm

Like every year since Pitt joined the ACC, the Coastal division appears wide open. In 2013, Duke had their best season in most of our lifetimes and won the division with a 10-2 regular season (6-2 in the ACC). In 2014, a 10-2 (6-2 in ACC) Georgia Tech had a season for the ages which culminated in an Orange Bowl victory over a top 10 SEC team (Mississippi State). Each season had a 5-3 team in second place (2013 had three), so there was no wiggle room; they had to win six for the outright title.

The point is if the goal is to win the Coastal, games like VT are imperative. Yes, every ACC game counts, but a reasonable look at the Coastal would put VT as no better than the third best ACC team Pitt will face, behind Duke and GT. That can always change, of course, but I can only deal with the present. VT’s defense is sketchy, especially against the run, their offense can’t run the ball consistently other than with QB Brendan Motley, and their best player on D, Kendall Fuller, may be out or limited with a knee injury. Given Pitt’s stout run defense thus far, the ability to key on Motley and the passing game gives Pitt an advantage when the Hokies have the ball. Pitt’s running game is struggling and VT’s defense may be just what the doctor ordered.

Pitt has four ACC road games: VT, GT, Duke, and Syracuse. My reasonable goal is to go 3-1 in these four games (a loss to GT or Duke) and 3-1 at home (UVA, Miami, UNC, and Louisville). I do not see a Pitt win against GT and Duke on the road and losing to both is conceivable and reasonable. That’s why VT is so important if the goal is to win the Coastal: do not start off with a loss and require a win over the two best teams in the division on the road.

Now, if the goal is to win seven and go to a mediocre bowl game, by all means this game is not a must win. With Cuse, UVA, and Louisville looking beatable, Pitt can find five more wins this season. Hell, Pitt always keeps it close against Notre Dame at worst.

But, if the goal is to win the Coastal, a statement this Saturday in Blacksburg will be a good start.





I expect VT to be favored.

Comment by Pitt1972 09.28.15 @ 2:48 pm

Tech is an interesting group to figure out at the moment. They are giving up 205 ypg rushing, good for 102nd in the nation… So one the backs are going to carry the load.

They’ve beat FCS Furman, and an AWFUL Purdue team.

They have also forced 11 turnovers through 4 games, and scored twice one defense, and have a blocked punt and a blocked kick, so I don’t know… Still seems Beamerballish on the surface.

I say treat them like a wounded animal. Don’t mess around. Run the ball down their throat, don’t turn it over, put them out of their misery quickly, and move on.

Comment by BostonsCommon 09.28.15 @ 3:18 pm

Ya, I want to win the Coastal. Is that a problem? 🙂

Comment by TX Panther 09.28.15 @ 3:36 pm

Pitt, just like most of the Coastal, has many warts it is trying to cover up. The division will come down to who improves throughout the season and who can stay out their own way and minimize mistakes.

I obviously liked our chances much better with Connor. However, those were the cards we were dealt. Hopefully, the running game can get on track and the OL can start to gel a little bit.

I’m glad that Price seems healthy as he is listed as the starter on this week’s depth chart. Mitchell is 3rd string due to injury but we’ll see if he is healthy enough to play some snaps.

Comment by JAM05PITT 09.28.15 @ 3:51 pm

The key to beating Va. Tech will be to maximize 3rd down conversions keeping our defense off the field and win the turnover battle. The 3rd down conversions are essential for victory .

Comment by Spindler's Spirit 09.28.15 @ 4:19 pm

At some point in time, a team that is on the rise has an epiphany. That self realization produces a win that propels them to new expectations going forward.

Iowa was an important game that could have provided a real momentum push for Pitt. However, that was just a swing and a long drive to the warning track, but alas an easy fly out was the final result, unfortunately.

This upcoming game, by comparison, now is even a more important game in light of that previous failure. Our first in conference contest of the season, coming off a bye week, a new starting QB at the Pitt helm.

This game is the “next” key game of the season. In light of VT’s loss against ECU, both teams will be motivated to get back on the winning track. This one is simply going to be a matter of who wants it more.

So my question to our Panthers is a straight forward one, “how much do you want it”? Hail to Pitt!

Comment by Dr. Tom 09.28.15 @ 5:04 pm

Oddsmakers have VT favored by 4.5. Sure hope they have it wrong.

Comment by pitt1972 09.28.15 @ 5:31 pm

Pitt has had success against the Hokies. But not as much at Lane Stadium. Under Walt we beat em 3 years in a row, 2 at Heinz and one there. Other than that I don’t remember us winning another one there.

That said, like Justin said at best they are the 3rd best team in the Coastal and if Pitt wants to make a run at this thing, this is a must win.

I’m heading down to Blacksburg Thurs morning. Anyone else making the trip? Never been there, if anyone knows of a good restaurant or watering hole I’d appreciate any suggestions…

Comment by Pap76 09.28.15 @ 5:35 pm

The key to beat VT play a solid game in all 3 phases and NO turnovers.

I look for a low scoring game. Dr. Tom is right on whoever wants it more, this is a must win for both teams, 4.5 points makes it a real tough bet, let’s see where the money comes in and if the line moves.

Comment by midwestbias86 09.28.15 @ 5:38 pm

For Va Tech being in the middle of nowhere, they are so much better than Morganhole and the Hoopie. The Hoopie is road kill. The Hokie is fine cuisine.

Comment by TX Panther 09.28.15 @ 6:03 pm

ECU just beat the Hokies…again. Now, ECU is a respectable program, but they are probably the 4th best program in North Carolina. Tech is beatable. Not next year, not 2017, by THIS Pitt team.

Comment by Iron Duke 09.28.15 @ 6:32 pm

Dr. Tom – I enjoy your posts, but I’ve never bought into that “who wants it more” business… It’s more like who makes more big plays – sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, critical blocks, TD passes, TD runs… Who breaks a tackle and picks up the 1st down to keep the drive alive…

We have some players who can do these things. The Hokies have some players who can do these things.

They all want to make big plays and they all want to win. It’s who actually makes the most big plays that will win.

Hope it’s us.

Go Pitt.

Comment by MajorMajors 09.28.15 @ 7:31 pm

@@@@@

What was the thinking behind this
schedule?

Comment by JR 09.28.15 @ 7:56 pm

We can thank Smiley for this schedule.

Comment by Pitt Flunky 09.28.15 @ 8:19 pm

Not a must win but could be huge to kick off the ACC season with a victory. A confidence builder for coaches and players. A loss will do just the opposite and will dig the hole a little deeper.

Comment by gc 09.28.15 @ 8:34 pm

Sorry to be the guy with little faith but there is No way in the world this team goes 6-2 in the ACC. Even though it is weak yet again.

Comment by Mark Mehalovich 09.28.15 @ 9:26 pm

How much better is 3-1 than 2-2?

When Pitt starts winning these type games is when we can bury SOP.

Comment by gc 09.28.15 @ 10:27 pm

Pitt is 1-5 in Blacksburg.

Comment by gc 09.28.15 @ 10:29 pm

@@@@@@

Every conference game is important. However given the
new faces and uncertainty of QB and RB winning at
VT is going to be difficult. Feeling like another miserable
season ahead.

Comment by JR 09.29.15 @ 5:34 am

Brandon miree went beast mode when we won down in Blacksburg. Va Tech was undefeated and top 10. It was an awesome game to go to. A night game. I think it was 02. Best road win I have ever been to.

Comment by 18 melba 09.29.15 @ 5:58 am

Based on the current weather forecast the game could be another Akron or worse. Tropical Storm Joaquin may dump its contents over the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. This is in addition to the already predicted rain. Going to be a slog.

Comment by Yeti 09.29.15 @ 7:32 am

what difference a 57 yard FG makes. Iowa is currently ranked 23rd in CBS Sports poll; Pitt is 63rd

Comment by wbb 09.29.15 @ 7:34 am

What a difference a year makes. Pitt is ranked either 10th or 16th in total defense (depending on poll); 110th in offense.

I would suggest this will change (like last year) when we play more offensive oriented teams later on the year.

Comment by wbb 09.29.15 @ 7:37 am

Anyone else find it troublesome that we have three co-starters at running back? It seems to me that you pick one and give him the snaps in practice. How else do you get the timing down? First the QB battle, now this. OK, not as severe, but very hard to understand after his performance in the first game how Ollison is not #1. James has the most experience and did fine last year, is he still hurt?

In any case we need to break off a few big ones on Saturday to have a chance to win.

Comment by gc 09.29.15 @ 7:39 am

Narduzzi quoted in the PG ” Obviously we ar missing some guys up front and we are missing a great tailback.” OK the tailback is Conner, who is he talking about up front besides Jones-Smith. If Rowell is not getting it done, put in Officer and play Bookser at guard. I noticed that Bookser is second string according to the two deep. Is Bisno still hurt?

I think any of the three running backs is good enough if the line starts opening holes. Peterson needs to get his act together. At least Narduzzi seems to recognize the problem “We have to run the ball more effectively” DUH!

Comment by gc 09.29.15 @ 7:49 am

I am a little partial towards James also but I expect Hall to rise to #1. He is a Youngstown boy who HCPN recruited while at MSU, and will be given every opportunity.

Don’t get me wrong. If James was considerably better than Hall, he would be playing (and he also has some lagging injuries).

Comment by wbb 09.29.15 @ 7:53 am

Most of us knew that the graduation of Clemmings and Rotherham would have an impact. Then you lose Jones-Smith, Conner and Ibrahim. Your two most experinced guys are dinged, Bisno and Rowell, coming back from ACL surgery. James and Ollison are dinged. So the running game goes from our greatest strength to our biggest weakness. Sounds like the curse of Pitt may not be dead yet.

Comment by gc 09.29.15 @ 7:55 am

We have seen both James and Ollison get loose in the backfield. A little concerning that Hall could not break free in 14 tries. Now with a monsoon coming in, we need a mudder.

Comment by gc 09.29.15 @ 7:58 am

Still like to see Parrish in the backfield. Not doing much for the team as 3rd string tight end.
The man could be opening some holes.

Comment by gc 09.29.15 @ 8:00 am

I believe the ACC has the say in how the conference games are scheduled and that is done around the non-cons if possible. If not the non-con is bumped or dropped with a fine paid.

Comment by Reed 09.29.15 @ 8:04 am

The mess of an OL and the injury to JC has made selecting a number one back probably the most difficult decision, even more than QB. One also must consider that the three backs are all relatively inexperienced, James having the most. This week will be where IMO we will begin to see one break off – consistency and toughness. Beat the Hokies – the new rivalry for me. Gotta play someone every year for it to be a rivalry. H2P

Comment by rkb 09.29.15 @ 8:20 am

Hall may our most consistent runner right now because he hits the hole fastest. The other 2, especially James, dance too much. Competition is good. The best man will eventually win the job, not the guy who came from the same hometown as coach. Let’s not be tinfoil hat guys. I agree with coach, our biggest problem is up front right now, not only b/c of the graduation of our 2 best lineman (that’s part of the game) but especially because of the loss of Jones. OL needs to improve each week.

Hopefully someone separates similar to what’s occurred (so far) with the qb position.

Comment by 1618mt 09.29.15 @ 8:22 am

Doesn’t shady have a few more years of eligibility left? Let’s pull an SMU and bring him back w/ incentives while he heals the hamstring.

Comment by tedsptman 09.29.15 @ 10:34 am

Coming out of Camp, my main concern about this Pitt Team was the Offensive Line and it’s STRUGGLES opening holes for the RUN GAME.

My later concern coming away from Conner’s injury and Ollison’s BIG DEBUT was whether Ollison would have the ability to take the punishment that comes with being a BIGGER BACK and one lacking Conner’s UNIQUE ability to avoid contact.

The evidence suggests both concerns were warranted and something that’s caught the attention of the Head Coach..

“Obviously, we’re missing some guys up front and we’re missing a great tailback that can make people miss,” he (Narduzzi)said. (Post Gazette)

As much as I like Ollison, durability and toughness could be a problem. Put it this way, he’s NO JAMES CONNER… but then, WHO IS?

Despite his size,(and attempts by some to make the Conner Comparison)Ollison is considerably better running in the OPEN FIELD than he is inside as a Power Back. This is how it’s been going back to his days in High School.

The good news is, given the extra time off… Ollison should be back to 100% and ready to rip off a LONG RUN or two against VaTech.

Of course, RAIN in the forecast DAMPENS the optimism just a bit.

Comment by PittofDreams 09.29.15 @ 12:14 pm

Running brother QB has given Pitt trouble since… well… forever. Look to see more of the same this week as a shaky QB with a non-existent run game probably gets Pitt 10 points (again).

Comment by JohnRamella 09.29.15 @ 12:23 pm

JohnRamella – Brilliant stuff. Just brilliant.

Comment by 1618mt 09.29.15 @ 1:40 pm

@ PoD – do you think maybe HCPN’s comments regarding the Oline and RB troubles are direct quotes from his OC who used those as excuses why his O play calling hasn’t gone well?

HCPN is trusting OC Chaney with driving the O. When your O struggles, the HC starts to ask questions. I think the questions were qued up after the Iowa loss.

Comment by Erie Express 09.29.15 @ 4:25 pm

I think hcpn knows his personell and doesn’t have to ask Chaney why they aren’t running better. It is more than obvious to anyone but the casual observer.

Comment by gc 09.29.15 @ 5:41 pm

In the Panthers’ most recent game, a 27-24 loss at Iowa, Hall led the team with 14 carries, but had just 38 yards. It should be obvious, yet HCPN said Hall looked good in his presser after the Iowa game.

One big concern with our new Oline blocking schemes- very similar to the NFL Colts, who haven’t had a 1,000 yard back in many years.

Comment by Erie Express 09.30.15 @ 4:04 am

For what it’s worth, yesterday Jerry Dipaola tweeted that Chris James suffered a concussion during the YSU game and that has been the cause of his limited play since early in that game. He’s reportedly ready to go for VT this weekend.

Comment by PittHW 09.30.15 @ 9:44 am

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