Redemption Tour 2015 resumes this Saturday when Pitt travels to Akron (WTF Steve Pederson???) to take on the Zips. Last year’s game against Akron was the low point of Pitt’s 2014 season and unfortunately the factors that were in play that caused the upset last season are still in place. Last year, Akron ran the ball well with Conor Hundley (19 carries for 148 yards) and stifled James Conner to one of his worst games of the season.
This year looks a lot like last year for the Zips. Conor Hundley returns for his senior year and the Akron run defense held Oklahoma to a mere 3.0 yards per carry. That includes a poor game from RB Samaje Perine (11 carries for 33 yards) who had 1713 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2014. Oklahoma struggled early but picked it up once Baker Mayfield and the passing game got it together en route to a 41-3 victory.
Make no mistake, Akron is a mediocre team. Unfortunately they’re a mediocre team that matches up well with Pitt. Pitt had two Achilles heels last season that appear to still exist in 2015: struggle if the running game isn’t working on offense and a defense susceptible to big plays. Last year Akron had plays of 42 and 52 on its touchdown drives and with Pitt’s offense unable to run the ball they couldn’t respond. Against Youngstown State, when the running game struggled, the offense sputtered and the defense gave up two back-breaking plays that could’ve cost them the game.
Oklahoma had the talent on offense to overcome an experienced front seven for Akron. Does Pitt? Let’s break down Akron’s offense and defense.
Offense:
Against Oklahoma, Akron’s offense was less than impressive. Out of sixteen possessions, eight resulted in a three and out. Of the other eight, four only had one first down before a punt. The remaining four were a missed FG, a FG setup by an Oklahoma fumble, a lost fumble, and the final drive of the game. Akron only had two plays longer than thirteen yards.
Yikes.
The list of ugly offensive stats for Akron could take up an entire column itself (QBs 6/26 passing, three first downs in the first half, etc.), but the point is that Pitt should be able to keep the Zips offense in check. Pitt’s defense was not the reason Akron won last year. Any time a defense holds the opposition to 14 points through three quarters that should be a game that’s already in the bag. Unfortunately it wasn’t and Akron’s fourth quarter touchdown drive was a killer.
One difference between last year and now is the QB position. Kyle Pohl is back, but he’s rotating with former Pitt QB Tra’Von Chapman. Chapman’s arm is still a work in progress, but he has the legs to make Pitt pay if someone, like the starting MLB for example, is slow to react. Mobile QBs have been an issue for Pitt and hopefully that’s something Narduzzi and Conklin can improve.
I’d expect Akron to try the same thing they did in 2014: play conservative on offense, don’t be afraid to punt, and wait for a mistake. Akron didn’t score until well into the second quarter last year. They punted five times out of their first seven possessions; the other two were a turnover and a touchdown setup by a big play. Akron isn’t afraid to win ugly, which is exactly what the Zips did last year. I’d expect a lot of runs, especially QB options with Chapman, with a few calculated shots to try and catch Pitt’s defense off guard. If Reggie Mitchell doesn’t play, this strategy could work.
Defense:
Akron is going to bring an experienced defense to the table on Saturday night. Although only five starters from last year return, six of the seven DLs and LBs have starting experience and all seven are juniors or seniors. This group certainly remembers how well they did against a Pitt running game that is likely not as good as 2014 without TJ Clemmings, Matt Rotheram, and now James Conner. Akron also returns both starting CBs.
The Zips’ 4-3 defense will likely have a similar plan to last year: focus on the run and hope Chad Voytik doesn’t beat them with his arm. Voytik had an OK game in 2014 (20/34 220 yards 1TD and 1 INT) but like last year, that probably won’t be enough. Akron also did a great job containing Chad’s legs (8 carries, 7 yards).
The X Factor will be Tyler Boyd. Boyd returns from a one game suspension with the burden of being Pitt’s lone superstar on offense now. Boyd had a subpar day (for him) against Akron last year but this is the type of game where Pitt needs Boyd to step up and prove the season isn’t lost with Conner. I’d expect an offensive game plan with a heavy focus on Boyd as any time the ball is in his hands he can do things that will make anyone not named Braxton Miller blush.
Overall:
Pitt needs this game badly. One thing I always fear is, as the great QB Shane Falco described, quicksand. Pitt got the YSU monkey off its back, but with the injury to James Conner, a loss could cause panic. Get Tyler Boyd going and have some success running with Ollison/James/Hall and the offense will gain a lot of confidence. With a loss to Akron, a win over Iowa will be difficult. Suddenly Pitt is 1-2 headed into the bye week. That’s not how the Narduzzi era can start.
Prediction:
Pitt wins an ugly one 24-13 thanks to a few turnovers from the defense and a smart yet boring day from the offense which avoids any big mistakes. Tyler Boyd turns something into nothing once or twice to open it up for the running game to be just good enough to control the game.
We will never beat the better teams on our schedule with Chas at QB and the coaches know it. Look for a change Saturday
Akron 16
Same margin of victory as v. tYSU. Peterman tosses a TD. Voytik tosses an INT. Ollison and James each run in a TD with Voytik under C. No turnovers from either team. Chapman rushes for 115 and throws for 65.
I remember being somewhat disappointed in what Chapman looked like in his spring game at Pitt. Hope he hasn’t improved much.
Course I was totally disappointed in what CV looked like last week. Hope he’s out of his funk this week – or we could be in trouble.
I’ll go with Pitt 27, Akron 17.
Go Pitt.
Pitt isn’t OU but I don’t think Akron is as good as YSU.
Voytik’s worst game, so bad I thought we may never win another game. Missed many wide open receivers by a mile.
The O-line was bad, Conner was bad.
The team had no fire whatsoever, they looked like the did not care.
The defense was just plain bad, could not get off the field.
I don’t see this happening again, with this coaching staff. Team will play with emotion and desire to redeem themselves. Defense should dominate. No big plays this week for Akron.
Boyd will make them pay for stacking the line.
Voytik will be more relaxed on the road.
Last year the middle of the line was still hurting without Artie and the loss of the Iowa game. Chryst was a dud that could not get them fired up. Won’t be a problem this year.
We are kidding ourselves thinking we wouldn’t miss James Conner. I’ve seen many runners look like OJ against sub division schools, it really doesn’t mean much. James is our proven quality and we will miss him, especially against Iowa.
Hence, I predict he will be playing in 6 weeks.
Also, a QB change can disrupt flow but rarely does a RB do so.
There is no reason for Akron to change their gameplan because, as Justin points out, the run is essential to Pitt’s success.
There were seemingly no half time adjustments last year on either side of the ball. It will be interesting to see what happens this year with the new coaching staff.
A couple of observations from being at last weeks game.
-Reed is a Rock Star! Could not even get close to say hello at Bettis’ Grille due to all the Blather groupies. Hopefully next time I can meet Reed.
-Awesome greeting the coaches and players as they exited the busses on their pre-game stroll. They had their game day faces on big time which was good to see.
-No false start penalties from the O line. Remember last year we had what seemed like a false start on every other possession. Tells me there is discipline and better coaching going on now.
-Extremely hot weather led to the early emptying of the stadium which was sad. We stayed till the end and then ran down in front of the band to hear JP Holtz and the seniors lead the Pitt victory song.
-As much as I like Chad Voytik I am not convinced he alone can take us to the ACC Championship game. His passing game should have greatly improved by now. That makes me very concerned going forward.
-I agree with UPitt we need a better midfield logo and onfield pizazz.
-My son and his college buddies going to Akron for the game this weekend. We should win and Ollison and Boyd will lead the way. 27-10.
Hail to Pitt!
wit JR
With the former ZIP O-Line Coach now on board, Pitt should RUN away with it.
Here is the statistical tally from last year’s match – read it and weep. Especially the 3rd down % compared to ours and the TOS. We had the ball a full 8 minutes more than Akron and the bested us in rushing and total yards gained… bad.
Let’s Akron is a Division 1 school albeit not a Power Five one. In addition to Tra’von Chapman they have 3* DE Bruce Boxen and 3*QB Chandler Kincaid on their roster for some familiar names…. all three guys we tried hard to recruit and I’m sure there are more I missed. I wouldn’t turn up my nose at the 2* and 3* talent they have on the roster, the coaching is very experienced and can obviously get them to rise to the occasion.
I remember reading that we were vastly more talented than YSU and look what happened there.Bowden is a good coach and has been recruiting and building toward this year:
Lastly, this team really kicked the crap out of us last season and beat us by a larger margin (11 points) than any other team save GT. We are going into the game with essentially the same personnel less some graduates who played a whole bunch better than our guys who replaced them are now. Remember, last season’s Akron game wasn’t the 1st or 2nd game on the schedule – It was #5 when we were 3-1 and ‘gelling” as they say.
I’d be worried about this game even if we had won more handily against YSU than we did. Oklahoma is vastly superior a team to us so I think you can’t put any stock in that OU-Akron game at all. If anything the Zips got more players some experience when they played in that blowout and that will just help their depth. They didn’t expect to win the game so they aren’t disappointed – I believe the converse actually. I think they will be raring to go against us in their season opener.
The crowd will be tanked up and rowdy and we are in another bad situation where we are really supposed to win this game so our squad may be too jittery because they can’t lose it without major blow back.
I don’t know guys… I wasn’t impressed with any aspect of the YSU game except Ollison’s long runs. Everything else looked sub-par to me. My gut tallies everything up and I’m think it could a Pitt loss in a very close away game.
Ollison has yet to show he can withstand the POUNDING that comes with trying to fill James Conner’s shoes.
Conner has a UNIQUE way of running that allows him to avoid a lot contact… that is except the contact he chooses to dish out on frequent occasion when one-on-one with a Defender.
Ollison… on the other hand… runs much more UPRIGHT and takes more of a perpendicular angle toward Defenders.
When it comes to playing Tougher Defenses with some Fast, Hard-hitting Linebackers… he’s going to be taking a lot of DIRECT HITS… far more than what we’ve seen with Conner.
at least, that’s what they averaged last year … being this is the opener and Pitt, it may be doubled, probably not
Sorry to hear that our man Reed is so down on Pitt’s chances of winning this game. I get it with the way CV played last week – but we know he can play much better.
Interesting if the game is a sellout – wonder how many Pitt fans will be there. I’ll be one of them.
Go Pitt.
According to Dixon presser earlier today, he expects all hands on deck when Pitt practices officially begins later on in October. (as of right now, only 8 schollies are healthy)
Tacocat – last week was our ‘redemption’ game against YSU at home… think we came out “Fired up”?
Not me bu a long shot.
Final Score: Pitt 31- Akron- 27
Now the interesting thing in this game is that if Nate does move the ball well through the air against the Zips during his scripted series will that earn him additional time behind center on Saturday? Still don’t see him replacing Voytik as a starter for Iowa though unless Peterman goes crazy productive through the air with Boyd back in the mix.
Personally, there’s not one Runningback that comes to mind when it comes to comparing Conner to anyone.
Don’t remember a Tailback… especially one weighing 250… running with the kind of CHOPPY SHORT steps Conner takes… and still having the ability to RUN AWAY from D-Backs.
However, you do make a good point about Conner running upright… that is until he’s about to be hit and decides to put his should down.
Hopefully Ollison will show some ability to LOWER the BOOM. Tough to last as a Runningback when you’re constantly getting nailed in the UPPER BODY.
Look for NP to get more scripted series – 3 if CV looks off as the QB battle continues. Agree with the Doc, Peterman will have to win the position which I think the coaches want an established winner by ACC opener. While there were individual sparks last week the team offense and defense were not impressive. The OL opened holes for Ollison and Boyd but pass protection was non-existant. The defense was much more aggressive than we have seen in a while which was fun. Zach Poker. This week will tell us more about the coaching staff than the players if as PN says the greatest improvement over a year is week one to week two.
Anything less than 34 to 10 Pitt win is unacceptable. Hail to Pitt.
2nd team LDE and RDE: Jabaal Sheard
2nd team RB: Dion Lewis
Two ex-Browns
Why would he be missing Savage?
In any case offense should be a lot less predictable than last year. Maybe we will actually throw on 1st or 2nd down once in a while.
What I remember most about the game last year is Conner failing to pick up 3rd and one then 4th and one.
This week let’s get some turnovers. And yes I agree with tacocat, THIS game will be viewed much more as a payback grudge match by most of the team, more so than the YSU game was.
Ollison had a great game vs. YSU, but he is an unproven commodity over the long haul as the #1 guy. He sure looked good, but I need to see more. Voytik (and/or Peterman) have to be better this week if for no other reason than TB is back. The line has to protect better.
It’s time for the defense to win a game. Akron doesn’t look like they have a potent offense, let’s not give them any opportunities to gain confidence.
I am making the trip up to the Rubber City (not quite the same ring as the Steel City). Weather forecast is about 60 degrees and rain at kickoff, so quite a departure from last’s week’s sultry conditions. I suspect a low scoring affair. 22-13 Pitt including a safety for intentional grounding in the end zone. H2P
m.youtube.com
go see Field Pass for YSU game on YouTube
It also would help if there was more speed at MLB
Defensive discipline will be critical in keeping Chapman bottled up. To me, he is the x factor for this game. If he plays with confidence and plays fast, it could be a long day for cornerbacks that don’t turn their heads to track balls.
Will save prediction for prediction thread.
Carry on.
So far Peterman has 4 completions and 1 interception. A small sample, but he must do better than that.
Ollison again has a big night, leading Panther Nation to start with the “James who?”.
Boyd goes for 125, CV looks amazingly good from the first play. I think the first play from scrimage is deep pass downfield to Boyd for a TD.
HTP