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June 25, 2014

Recruiting and Ranking

Filed under: Football,Recruiting — Chas @ 6:37 am

It’s been well established that Coach Paul Chryst does not find recruiting to be one of his favorite things. His approach has annoyed, puzzled and infuriated plenty in just a short time.

At times he can be slow to offertalent. Ostensibly based on wanting to see them in a camp or meet with them first. Yet, he’s jumping right on that sophomore QB/punter in Wisconsin.

That’s just a side bar. The issue is that the players he gets to commit  — by and large — are not highly starred. A good chunk are players with their biggest offers from MAC schools and lower tier major conference teams.

Like it or not, the recruiting rankings are more than simply guesses. It’s why there is more excitement when a 4- star or so player gives a verbal.

For every Aaron Donald or J.J. Watt that rises well above his star ranking out of high school there are more like Jadeveon Clowney overall in the NFL Draft. Especially versus the total number of 4- and 5-star recruits in each class. The recruiting sites do a better job than we like to admit.

This is a very good piece about how recruiting sites do their evaluations. Their secret sauce or algorithms aren’t revealed. Just a good insight on how each tries to do their evaluations.

Luginbill described the world of camps and 7-on-7 teams as “scary territory” because they insert middle men (i.e. coaches, trainers with a vested interest) into the recruiting process.

He also spoke about another factor that ESPN.com doesn’t value highly in its rankings: scholarship offers. Since the NCAA moved the deadline for committable offers to be made from Sept. 1 of an athlete’s junior year to Aug. 1 preceding their senior year, the amount of offers has skyrocketed.

Coupled with passionate fan bases and college coaches who may offer a player simply because another in-conference school offered, many players rack up 30-plus invites — some of which are committable, some of which aren’t.

“The whole offer thing always irks me,” Luginbill said. “But when I bring it up to people and explain it, I usually get, ‘that makes a lot of sense.'”

Rivals.com makes no apologies for using the camps in evaluations. They make the good point that coaches use them as a basis to make offers so why shouldn’t the recruiting evaluators.





Your point about the overall accuracy of stars/ratings is well taken. After all, if they were so wrong, then the Alabamas and USC’s of the world wouldn’t care to land whole classes fulls of those highly rated kids.

I suppose it’s that Chryst sees what was done at Wisconsin with kids that weren’t really highly rated and thinks he can do the same at Pitt.

Comment by ajb240 06.25.14 @ 7:12 am

Don’t forget it is also at least partially a which came first “the chicken or the egg” thing. Star ratings go up when the Alabamas and Floridas, etc offer and/or get commitments.

Comment by Pitt1972 06.25.14 @ 7:48 am

Most 4 and 5 star recruits are physical specimens with proven FB skills. Many 3 stars and some 2 stars either have good athletic skills but aren’t tall or large enough, or have potential which just hasn’t surfaced yet … and may never will surface.

No doubt that the higher rated stars are lesser risks and can provide immediate benefits, but there is a science to coachng them up and fitting them within a team concept.

Pitt can never recruit with the big boys anymore, so like it or not, the PC approach is necessary

Comment by wbb 06.25.14 @ 7:51 am

Also, I am anecdotally convinced stars tend to be much more accurate predictors for skill position players vs the guys who play in the trenches (i.e., OL , DL, LBs). They likely are also generally better predictors of guys who are nearly NFL ready coming out of H.S. vs players who will develop later as they mature physically.

None of this, of course negates the point that the 4-5 star loaded teams generally will be more successful than those with mostly 2-3 star guys. On the other hand I believe you can successfully compete with these “loaded” teams if you recruit pretty equally with them at the skill positions and recruit 2-3 star guys for the trenches who have the same or potentially as upperclassmen will have equal physical measurables to their higher rated peers coming out of H.S.

Comment by Pitt1972 06.25.14 @ 8:05 am

The 4’s and 5’s are not lining up to come here. Hopefully, Chryst and Co. have the talent to identify kids that are going to develop and be good students in the classroom and on the field.

Hopefully they finish strong. I like that we are getting kids from FL and Ohio. Too bad we missed on the kid from NJ but you can’t win them all.

Bring on those future pass rushers.

Comment by gc 06.25.14 @ 8:08 am

This is also an exceptionally weak class in SWPA.
Still, we have got our share.

link to triblive.com

Comment by gc 06.25.14 @ 8:18 am

This debate has gone on for years. My opinion is not a simple yes or no that stars do or don’t matter.

IMO the four- five star players are fairly easy to identify. It is the next group down that make or break programs, and that is where the focus on the top tier argument runs off the track.

Stars being awarded based on “who has offered” is a poor way of obtaining those stars. It’s as if a Big Ten staff or others in a rating service mind are better recruiters than other schools. That’s where it gets subjective. And the subjection is deferred to the “name” schools. It shouldn’t. There have been some damn poor coaches at Michigan, Tennessee, and on and on. It shouldn’t matter if one of those programs offers and a recruits star rating suddenly ratchets up the ladder.

Mack Brown is the classic example of a guy getting almost every 4 and 5 star recruit he wanted, but ran 5-7’s on a weak schedule for several years.

Contrast to TCU, where Patterson for many years took kids they identified and won big.

Yes, the program should pursue the 4 and 5’s and best available talent, but in the end the program makes or break on how well they evaluate and recruit players that fit the system and are all in.

Comment by PittMan 06.25.14 @ 8:50 am

Off topic, but interesting that both Young and Uchebo have lost weight. Better for sore backs and knees. When/If Haughton comes we still have little bulk/strength underneath. Gone are the days of Blair, Morris, Adams, Gray.

Comment by gc 06.25.14 @ 9:02 am

As a taxpayer in the Montour School Dist I welcome all blatherites to this yrs summer pro-am league. The A/C and toilets are on me.

Comment by alcofan 06.25.14 @ 9:26 am

Personally, I’d rather have a recruiting class full of 4 and 5* recruits for Coach Chryst to “coach up” rather than a recruiting stable full of 2 and 3* recruits.

But you can still go to the prom even if you can’t get the prettiest girl in school to accompany you. Often have just as much fun and not have to deal with a ton of baggage that tends to come along for the ride with the good lookers.

Right now, Chryst is doing the best he can with the guys that have accepted his offers, IMO. He has even dumped a guy who was a really good looker, AKA Rushel Shell, simply because he got fed up with the negative baggage that came with that package. Is Chryst going to be able to hit it out of the park with this crew that he’s assembled up to this point? The jury is still out on that one, but one thing is for sure, this team is morphing into a real synergistic TEAM.

You can feel it and it is confirmed by the players when they’re interviewed. That just could end up being Chryst’s Ace in the hole. A bunch 3*s playing as a TEAM can produce success.

This season should be a good barometer on whether Chryst is on the correct track or not. The jury will be quick to return a negative verdict if he doesn’t have success THIS season, since his honeymoon with Pitt fans is just about over.

Comment by Dr. Tom 06.25.14 @ 9:59 am

There were more former 2 star players on Seattle & Denver’s Super Bowl teams than former 4-5 stars.

Comment by Nick 06.25.14 @ 10:01 am

Shaq Doorson is going to Rutgers.

Comment by Nick 06.25.14 @ 10:17 am

It also appears that HCPC is recruiting kids with strong academic records. I like that and it makes me want to see HCPC succeed even more.

Comment by HbgFrank 06.25.14 @ 10:19 am

Few college players go on to successful careers in the NFL and even those types end up having to become working slobs like the rest of us eventually.

Therefore, Coach Chryst has it right IMO, get these kids under his tutlelage an education that they’ll probably end up utilizing in their futures much more than any straight football coaching techniques that he couldn ever provide them with and you’ll be doing these players the best service possible.

Winning isn’t everything, in thise process, although many lose sight of that fact when discussing major college athletics these days. I think that Coach Chryst already fully understands that, coming from a coaching family tree. His legacy will be a solid one, concerning the future of his student athletes, irrespective if he ever accomplishes major success on the playing field or not.

There’s a lot more to Panther Pride than just if our teams are winning championships or not.

Comment by Dr. Tom 06.25.14 @ 10:34 am

Agree Doc. That said, I don’t think we’re in a great position to recruit right now, b/c we don’t seem to have a dynamic recruiter and our program doesn’t carry the weight to recruit itself yet. That said, it is quite possible that with increased wins in the near future, recruiting will start to take care of itself to some degree.

Re Doorson, I for one am really happy about this. Good opportunity for him and for us.

Comment by 1618mt 06.25.14 @ 10:41 am

Posted this on previous post, but I’ll post it again.

I’ve calmed down about the stars and stuff.

I like 4’s and 5’s better than 2’s and 3’s too. Who doesn’t???

However, simply, we will easily be able to tell whether he is building a good, solid program in the next two years.

Great thing about sports, you’ll see the results on the field, court, diamond, ice etc. etc..

I think he’s on the right track building.

Now, what he needs to do, is take the next step and get us to 8-4, then 9-3 and even dare I dream 10-2. Better bowls.

Then have those years be our norm.

If that happens, then we will get more 4’s and 5’s.

Compete with Alabama or FSU, of course not.

But, when you win, the recruiting gets better. That’s a fact no matter who you are or where you play.

Hopefully he has the ball rolling.

Time will tell.

p.s. In the past, I’ve been worked up over the recruiting, but that was usually in replys to certain agitators on here of “poor recruiting”.

Hey, they may be right. Not gonna get my blood pressure in a huff over it though.

I’ll be able to tell easily whether his system worked, right on the field.

Comment by Dan 06.25.14 @ 10:42 am

Dr Tom. Sage stuff with the prom reference….I would add that there were other good reasons to take the “less than the prettiest” girl!

I always liked hiring “character guys” in sales. Less babysitting required etc. less egos etc.

I also think that 2’s and 3’s are easier to shape as a team, and HCPC highly values the concept of “team”. We’ll see how it all works out in the Fall

Comment by Dan 72 06.25.14 @ 10:47 am

I’d point out that a Cincinnati team largely full of two and three stars beat a Pitt team largely full of four and five stars to go to a BCS game in the not-too-distant past.

Comment by Atlanta Panther 06.25.14 @ 11:19 am

@Dr Tom

Were you always this smart or has it just come since you retired and moved south? Love the prom analogy. Think about how many girls who were drop dead gorgeous were also total head cases.

I was more than willing to “coach up” a decent looking girl in high school. Too bad that most of them resisted my recruiting efforts.

H2P

Comment by pmdH2P 06.25.14 @ 11:35 am

Atlanta Panther – that’s because we had a 2/3 star coach and they had a 4/5 star coach. 😉
HTP

Comment by pittbluegold 06.25.14 @ 12:00 pm

They won by 1 point .. a missed extra point, so don’t get too lathered up.

Comment by wbb 06.25.14 @ 12:26 pm

.. and their star QB, a 2-star, was the 4th team QB at the begining of August and only got the chance to play because the previous starter (Mauck) was declared ineligble and the next 2 were injured

Comment by wbb 06.25.14 @ 12:29 pm

Lastly, what they (Cincy) did have … just like WVU under RichRod … was team speed which matched their offensive approach perfectly.

(Pat White was rated a 2-star athlete (not even a QB) coming out of college)

Comment by wbb 06.25.14 @ 12:32 pm

I get tired of the ridiculous characterization that HCPC is somehow turning down 4 and 5 star players in order to take 2 and 3 star players to “coach-up.” Pitt does not have lots of 4/5 star talent lined-up to get in at this point, and probably never will.

So, I think the staff have done a good job recruiting within the realistic limitations. They’ve gone after the high-end talent that they felt they had a chance of actually getting, and have gotten a small but increasing number of gems in each class. Outside of that they’ve spent time making sure to get the best available to fill in spots and build depth – something we haven’t had for a long time.

The trouble with Wanny was that he concentrated far too much on the 4/5 star guys, thinking that it was still 1980 and he was going to fill-up a team with them at Pitt. Yes, he did manage to bring some of them in, but not enough to maintain any depth. His staff spent so much time on stars that were most likely not going to come here, that they lost sight of the bigger picture. Their classes had a few stars at certain positions, but gaping holes everywhere else, and it showed on the field big-time.

I’d rather they make sure we have an O-line that’s three players deep at every position with big 3 and 4 star guys, than waste time catering to a bunch of 5 star skill guys who will never come here, and that’s the route HCPC seems to be taking right now.

Comment by SteveS 06.25.14 @ 12:49 pm

Well said pittbluegold. And I’m proud to say that our current 2/3 star coach beat that 4/5 coach last year! HTP.

Comment by Atlanta Panther 06.25.14 @ 12:49 pm

I’m not going to bitch about the 16 recruits this year that will be 3-stars or less…Not a thing I can do about it except watch the next few years look like the last 25 years. With a +/- record differential of 1 or 2 every year.

However taking the ugly girl to the prom? That’s where the line is drawn. For one night I would take the head case over the life long ridicule from my buds for waking up next to a whale.

Comment by opitt 06.25.14 @ 12:50 pm

There are more 3 star kids drafted in the first round than 4 and 5 star kids simply because there are so few 5 stars identified. Three star recruits are just fine. Would I enjoy an occasional 4 and 5 star, yes! But PC had a fundamental question he needed to answer early on in his regime. Would he take a 5 star with baggage or look out for the best interests of his team. The answer is clear. Get the 3 stars who are clean and go to class…and can play. LEt’s see how that strategic plan works for a few years before beating the coach up.

I like the plan. Pitt puts a couple 8-4 seasons together with three stars, his sales pitch starts to sound like this. Hey kid, we win 8 games consistently with average talent. You are a difference maker and I believe you can get us over the top with one or two more wins during each campaign. Now commit to me cupcake and we will win this neat ACC League.

Seriously though, don’t sweat the three stars. There are way more 3 stars than 4 and 5 stars combined. It’s finding the right ones and coaching them up to perform as a team. This is exciting stuff going on if we could only lose our AD.

Comment by dhuffdaddy 06.25.14 @ 12:52 pm

As I remember another guy named Paul didn’t like to recruit and he was a flop, I am a bit concerned about our lack of star recruits but we shall see if the lower tiered recruits stay in the program and develop.

We have recruited mediocre for various reasons over the last 3 seasons and it shows.

The coach up philosophy only goes so far with players that are limited in ability. You need talent to win on a consistent basis and the 2014 season should be 8-4 anything less a disappointment.

The 2015 season will be Paul’s make or break year and with the difficult schedule I cannot see them breaking 6-6 unless the coach-em up talent really takes a step forward.

Comment by WLAT and the Big Beat 06.25.14 @ 1:33 pm

Chryst goes deep with an offer to Sophomore QB Nate Stanley.from Wisconsin (see link below).

This kid is BIG TIME.

First I’ve seen that I dare to say actually reminds me of Tom Brady…. in build, in the way he throws… but most importantly in how he commands the Offense.

And he punts too. BOY DOES HE EVER!

link to hudl.com

Comment by PittofDreams 06.25.14 @ 1:35 pm

@SteveS, agreed. With starting to win and steadily going say 9-3, 9-3,8-4, 10-2, 9-3

over a 5 year period, as an example, we will definitely get back to getting a few 4’s and 5’s.

Local kid that wants to stay at home, a kid who wants playing time.

A kid who see’s we’re winning.

A kid that sees HCPC is regularly sending some kids to the pros.

No delusions of getting 10 to 15 4’s and 5’s.

Start winning and we’ll get a few, like we have in the past, even during the last 30 years.

What happens if in 2015 and 2016 we’re
still at 6-6, 7-5, 5-7??? Those same numbers that OPITT mentioned +/- 1 or 2 every year???

I don’t know, put Chryst down as another notch in our belt I guess, with the others from the last 30 years.

I do feel a glimmer of hope with this guy though.

Ya, I’ve felt it before, because many times as Pitt fans that’s all we’ve had, but this time, I feel it genuinely.

We’ll see.

Comment by Dan 06.25.14 @ 1:45 pm

Of course, daring to compare Nate Stanley to today’s Tom Brady… would seem to put Stanley ahead of Brady as a High School Sophomore.

I guess that might mean his UPSIDE could be a little less. Oh well.

Comment by PittofDreams 06.25.14 @ 1:47 pm

Besides the example of Wisconsin in the Big Joke winning large with less than, shall we say, stellar rated recruiting classes.

Duke, with a boatload of 2 and 3 star rated kids just provided us another example, right in our own very conference. Winning the Coastal Division and giving Johnny Football and SEC Texas A&M all they wanted in the Peach Bowl, just last year.

And guess who was one of the few teams to beat Duke.

Little ole us.

Comment by Emel 06.25.14 @ 1:48 pm

Well we don’t have to worry about reclassifying Doorson to 2015.

So last year’s recruiting netted us, Cameron Johnson and Ryan Luther. Two local kids, neither of who were highly rated. And a local kid transfer who Dixon knew was coming the previous year.

Seems like the early 70’s all over again.

I sure hope this Smoke guy can recruit, another couple classes like this and we will be a doormat eventually.

Comment by Emel 06.25.14 @ 2:09 pm

here are some interesting recruiting notes from Pitt Redshirt Diary PG blog … I took particular interest in the bottom 3 bullets, the last one possibly being the next commit

link to blogs.post-gazette.com

Comment by wbb 06.25.14 @ 2:19 pm

Emel- Re 15′, not sure I really care, when 16′ has the potential to be one of our best classes in a long time. If 16′ falls apart, then I’d be concerned, but there’s simply no reason to think that right now.

Comment by 1618mt 06.25.14 @ 2:41 pm

Sorry, I meant 14′ vs 15′. Though I think Rowan may be 16′.

Comment by 1618mt 06.25.14 @ 2:43 pm

Interesting wbb

Travon Chapman is mentioned. Kid wound up at a Division 2 school (Ashland) and didn’t exactly light it up there.

52% completion ratio
Only 128 ypg
1154 yards
9 TD’s 3 picks
Sacked 15 times
54 rushes for 76 yards

Local division 2 schools are like Seton Hill, Edinboro, California (Pa), IUP, Gannon & Slippery Rock.

So looks like he wasn’t D1 talent. Not anywhere close, at least his freshman year.

Comment by Emel 06.25.14 @ 2:45 pm

Right 1618, Rowan is ’16 as of now.

This recruiting is so crazy anymore you can’t be sure of anything until you see the kid in a Pitt uniform.

Nobody even knew that Doorson decommitted on his NLO back in January until today or yesterday.

Comment by Emel 06.25.14 @ 2:48 pm

I like Chryst so far but Pitt lost 2-3 games in each of the past two seasons under him that could easily be described as choke jobs — okay, I’ll give him a pass for first year jitters and dealing with Tino — but last season no reason we lose to Navy, GTECH, and UNC. Good news is that had nothing to do with lacking 4-5 star players…bad news, had everything to do with coaching.

If Chryst is smarter/shrewder this season, we win those games and go 9-3 instead of 6-6. And if we keep racking up guys like Grimm, Johnson, Bookser, Jennings, etc, we win games vs. VTech and probably Miami, putting us potentially at 11-1/10-2 and being in there vs. everyone but FSU for now. Not too shabby.

Comment by Matt N. 06.25.14 @ 2:49 pm

Agree Matt

Taking off my Blue & Gold tinted glasses, PC has proved to be a pretty ordinary game coach, maybe even below ordinary. Lots of questionable decisions. And if it had been Wanny, the term, boneheaded would have been liberally thrown around.

And while the Clemmings project seems to be working, the offensive line as a whole was horrendous and a major reason we lost several games we could have won.

So it remains to be seen whether they can groom Johnson, Biz, Jones-Smith, Grimm, etc into a cohesive O-line.

And that is paramount this season with a very inexperienced QB coming in.

Comment by Emel 06.25.14 @ 3:02 pm

I have been making the point time and again here .. that I believe it is no coincidence that we had our best year in recent times in 2009, when we had a quality, healthy OL.

Comment by wbb 06.25.14 @ 3:06 pm

@wbb

I agree. If the OL opens holes for the runners and gives the quarterback time to execute a play or improvise, we are sitting in high cotton. And, we have some big boys ready to do just that.

H2P

Comment by pmdH2P 06.25.14 @ 4:18 pm

This season seals HCPC’s long term fate, IMO. Is that fair? No. Is that rational? No. Is that reality? Unfortunately, a big probably YES. I’m in Coach Chryst’s corner, I say win at least 8 and continue the regime!

Comment by Dr. Tom 06.25.14 @ 5:12 pm

Matt, I thought Chryst was better in game last year than year one. His worst decision last year was not having a special teams coach.

For every game Pitt probably should have won, you could name another that they probably should/could have lost. They were a mediocre team, and that’s what mediocre teams do – ride the roller coaster.

Speaking of special teams, I hope Pitt finds a return man this year other than Boyd. TB is awesome, but I hate to lose him to an injury on a kickoff return.

Dr. Tom, I think next season seals HCPCs fate. I don’t think we’re quite there yet, eas(ier) schedule or not.

Comment by Iron Duke 06.25.14 @ 6:44 pm

Iron Duke, 2 freshmen, Maddox and Motley may fit the bill as returners this year. Not sure what is planned for them, but both are fast and were very good returners in HS

Comment by wbb 06.25.14 @ 7:54 pm

I’m pretty sure Ronald Jones can handle punt returns. Ibrahim does some returning as well. Agree that Boyd, as well as Pitts, is risky. Coaches don’t seem as worried about it in college. With Boyd being such a game breaker I can’t imagine he won’t see some time back there.

Comment by Nick 06.25.14 @ 8:04 pm

Emel — and I was one of the ‘bonehead’ chorus for Wanny. Chryst gets a bit more lee-way from me since this is his first head coach gig and it was Wanny’s second or third…but, not TOO much more.

Duke — good points, but in my view those close games were really lost on decision making versus player execution or talent. I mean, clearly he was up against it vs. FSU and no one faulted him there, but the rest of the schedule was pretty reasonable and it seemed he hacked up a few that a better coaching day would have salted away…just imho.

I do believe he shows a learning curve and willingness to adjust, unlike Wanny did, and that has me optimistic.

Comment by Matt N. 06.25.14 @ 10:34 pm

How ’bout Chryst as HC, Wanny as DC, and Walt as OC?! We got all the right coaches in sequence, just not all at the same time like we needed them!? I actually bet Harris might go for that but no way Wanny swallows that one…anyway, more silly than serious, but 6-6 is no time for pride, right.

Comment by Matt N. 06.25.14 @ 10:39 pm

Matt – Yeah that’s a dream coaching set, although I wonder if Walt is worth having. His offense was smoke and mirrors. I love Walt, but I don’t know that his offense would work.

Comment by Caw Miller 06.26.14 @ 6:11 am

Caw — Walt got a lot out of his offense considering most of our team were guys who’d have gone to Kent St., Central Michigan, or Temple if Pitt hadn’t offered…not that there’s anything wrong with those schools, but ‘Bama or USC they ain’t. He could be frustrating but the guy could get some points on the board and move the chains with pretty modest talent. With guys like Boyd, Grimm, Bookser, and even Voytik — and Savage — Chryst’s talent pool is much deeper, so I need to see some 9-10 win seasons pretty darn soon.

Comment by Matt N. 07.03.14 @ 4:13 pm

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