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November 18, 2013

Fourth and One: Right Call?

Filed under: Football — Justin @ 10:46 am

Fourth and one on the UNC 26 yard line. Down by seven, Pitt needed a touchdown to tie the game. This was their last chance to score, so obviously a failure on fourth down meant a fourth loss in six games. There are a lot of options on fourth and one, especially given the first down will stop the clock, so designing a play to get out of bounds isn’t necessary. Just get the one yard and you still have over a minute to go to get the remaining 25 yards to tie the game.

Chryst opted to give the ball to Conner on a deep handoff. A lot of people criticized this decision. I heard things like “if Chryst had balls he would’ve thrown it” and “of course the struggling running game wouldn’t get one measly yard. Without the ability to see the future, was it the right call?

For the game, Tom Savage was 23/38, a 60.5% completion percentage, which is roughly his season average as well. He was also sacked seven times and had one rush for two yards. Out of 46 passes/rushes/sacks, only 24 of them resulted in positive yardage, just barely better than 50%. That means when Tom Savage dropped back to pass, it was a coin flip as to whether or not the offense would gain yards.

Savage also had a few throws that weren’t even close. He missed an open Chris Wuestner in the end zone. He was slow to find open receivers and took several unnecessary sacks. He lost two fumbles. Do you want a pass that’s close to a coin flip to determine your game because UNC isn’t expecting it? For those who say “a high percentage pass won’t be a coin flip” I ask you to watch how often Savage misses those short throws and how often he takes too long to throw.

However, in the early fourth quarter, the offense faced another fourth down play. Fourth and two from the UNC 27, Savage dropped back and hit Manasseh Garner for a huge 19 yard gain that set up the second touchdown and put Pitt back into the game. Savage stepped up on that play, maybe he could do it again.

Let’s look at Conner’s day. At that point, he had 18 carries for 103 yards. Of those 18 carries, 17 went for positive yardage. 94% of Conner’s carries went for 1+ yards. In fact, just four plays before that, Conner gained one yard on a third and one play. Logic would dictate Conner had a very good chance at converting the fourth down. He was running hard and down hill all game long.

However, everyone in the stadium assumed that would be the play. UNC stacked the line, got penetration, and Conner had nowhere to go. The OL has been pretty putrid most of the season and had a habit of collapsing at the worst moments. Of course, that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t collapse on a passing play either.

Overall, Chryst played the numbers. Conner had a very high chance at converting, even if UNC stacked the line. He also ran Conner to the right, behind Rotheram and Clemmings as opposed to behind Schlieper and Hollins, both backups, something most expected as well. It was the wrong decision in hindsight purely because it didn’t work. At the time, I believe it was the right call. With the game on the line, you go with what works. Chryst is not the type to get cute or try something new. Pitt is a running team. If you can’t get that yard on fourth and one, you probably don’t deserve to win.

 





IMO they did not play with emotion for the entire first half but especially so after the Savage turnover when he decided to keep the ball in the hand which happened to be the closest hand to the defenders hand.

Second half was a different story. Football is 80% emotion and 40% talent and coaching.

Comment by dhuffdaddy 11.18.13 @ 9:46 pm

Pitt of dreams obviously has never seen Grimm play

Grimm might not play one snap at tackle for Pitt

Comment by anonyz 11.18.13 @ 10:03 pm

Don’t disagree with call, but formation could have been different. However Conner had a big day and watched him plow thru Notre Dame d line in similar plays prior week. O line just whiffed, it’s a learning experience for a young team. Next week come out guns blazing at the dome Ala 2010.

Comment by John 11.18.13 @ 10:11 pm

Emel –

Biz is a redshirt freshman – playing (and starting) at one of the most difficult positions on the field

and Johnson is a true freshman

Johnson went from Belle Vernon – to playing Div1 ball the next season

and Biz from a redshirt season after Fox Chapel

major leaps

need to be patient – they have the tools and have displayed potential

Comment by anonyz 11.18.13 @ 10:11 pm

@TonyinHouston, absolutely!!!

Maybe some don’t like him personally, but I’ve always found him to tell it the way it is. Some people don’t like to hear that.

Ron Cook was practically gushing about Pitt in the link you provided after the ND game. Non-believers, go to Tony’s comment and click on the link. Tell me I’m wrong, after reading what he said about Pitt. I can read. I just did.

After this game, maybe I’m not a real Pitt Panther fan, because you could use Ron Cook’s column for me, for my comments about the game.

Tell me somehting he said that’s wrong???? Not that makes you mad or upsets you, something that is incorrect.

I’ll be waiting.

I have no ties to Ron Cook what so ever.

I could care less who wrote it, tell me Joe Blo’ from Squirrel Hill wrote it, whoever wrote it, was right. It says a guy named Ron Cook wrote it, whoever, put it down under my name if you want.

Comment by Dan 11.18.13 @ 10:23 pm

Steve 1, I agree completely that the game is not instinctual for Zanna. But I still question his tenacity. I think, if he were to really try, that he could be more intense and fearsome in the block.

Comment by Don Walnut 11.18.13 @ 10:26 pm

And for all of our sakes, the Pitt team, coaches, fans and fellow Blatherites……………

I hope my feelings on the upcoming game in the Dome against Syracuse, are completely wrong!!!

Comment by Dan 11.18.13 @ 10:37 pm

There are numerous “right” play calls in that situation . The play that was called was one of those “right” calls .
The problem Is not with the playcall, but instead , with the formation .
1. A lead blocker must be used in that situation
2. You don’t take the ball back away from the line of scrimmage 6 yards when you only need 1 yard forward , same as you don’t take a 2 foot backswing for a 1 foot putt.
Having your rb lined up 6 yards back without an upback in that situation is a head scratcher

Comment by Duke 11.18.13 @ 10:59 pm

Nice…a 3:30 start for the U game.

Comment by HbgFrank 11.18.13 @ 11:23 pm

@ anonyz

Thx for pointing out the obvious. 🙂

The problem is we haven’t seen Huebner, Hueber whatever his name is, the other coaches, make any progress with this O-Line at all.

Yea they ran the ball better against ND, well if you remember, ND had their 2nd best lineman thrown out of the game on the helmet spear and their monster NG was playing on one leg.

And yes we ran the ball better against UNC, UNTIL, …..UNTIL….we needed to get 1 yard.

And as far as being patient, I and many on here have been …..quite patient for ….let me see..
it’s 2013……..since 1983.

Is that long enough ? 🙂

Comment by EMel 11.18.13 @ 11:43 pm

I’m still in somewhat of a state of shock,….
…………………….
.;…………………..
…………………….
??????????????????????
:??????????????????????
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THAT TYLER BOYD WAS SITTING ON THE BENCH, ON
THE MOST IMPORTANT PLAY OF THE GAME FOR THE OFFENSE.

This is what I don’t get with Chryst. I mean even if Boyd was split wide to pick his nose, pre-snap …he would have drawn a DB and a Safety long, just in case we had an imaginative HC.

Comment by EMel 11.18.13 @ 11:48 pm

No Special Teams Coach…..

Comment by SGR2000 11.18.13 @ 11:49 pm

omg….when will it ever end !!!

Comment by EMel 11.18.13 @ 11:50 pm

Concur Dan-o

Don’t like Cookie myself, but you couldn’t argue with what he said.

@ TonyHouston

Thx for the Kovacevic link bro.
Forgot to go to the Trib. Guess at that time I was in no mood/condition to read more articles on our latest…fail. Dejan who I do respect since he told it like it was for so long about the Bucs was also spot on.

Comment by EMel 11.19.13 @ 12:03 am

Tyler Boyd was not on the bench for that last play. He was split out right.

Comment by Pitt2Cali 11.19.13 @ 12:08 am

But it all blew up. The O-line buckled, both inside linebackers set their sights squarely on Conner —he noticed this before the snap — and thud, 1-yard loss.

It was the safe call, for sure, but why go safe?

Why not start pushing things a bit, prodding whatever demons happen to delight in punishing the Pitt program?

I’m not going to suggest an alternate play call, but I will point out that only 1:15 remained, a touchdown was needed sooner rather than later, North Carolina had nine men in the box and might be hard-pressed to defend a pass and — oh, yeah — Tyler Boyd, the most dangerous player on either team, was watching from Pitt’s sideline.

Draw up your own X’s and O’s for No. 23 and enjoy

Read more: link to triblive.com
Follow us: @triblive on Twitter | triblive on Facebook

Comment by EMel 11.19.13 @ 12:16 am

Goodnight Paul….lol

Comment by EMel 11.19.13 @ 12:17 am

Or are you Keller ? lol You better decommit and save Uncle Paul’s ass !

Comment by EMel 11.19.13 @ 12:19 am

Not sure what game Kovacevic was watching, but TBoyd was absolutely on the field for the 4th and 1 play.

Not saying Chryst is imaginative, but Boyd was on the field. Blocking all the way. Sealed the edge quite nicely. A toss sweep might have gone for a TD with only a corner for Conner to run over.

Comment by CNorwoodAZ 11.19.13 @ 12:56 am

EMel

“You have Boyd and Connor as split backs in the backfield, if the QB sees they have 9 in the box, you audible to a toss pitch to Boyd.
If not you go with the Connor power right.”

Exactly. But it still might have failed. Connor got tackled from behind from the left!

Someone also said have Voitik in the pistol. Exactly. Why don’t we have that?

Comment by Caw Miller 11.19.13 @ 8:05 am

Wow, so many great coaches on here. Always great to second guess. I agree with Justin.

If you can’t get a yard with a 230lb back you don’t deserve to win. The O line has a long long way to go.

I do agree Savage should have a check off in that situation in case you don’t get the D alignment you prefer but maybe he did have one. We will never know.

Comment by notrocketscience 11.19.13 @ 8:28 am

Caw – I said we should have a damn wildcat set with Boyd taking the snap.

Comment by Upittbaseball 11.19.13 @ 8:33 am

The game never shudda come down to that play. If we had a special teams coach, maybe 1-2 of those killer returns could have been prevented.

On a related topic, for Pete’s sake how many big games is Pitt gonna blow (dating all the way back to Wanny) before we finally do something about it and hire a special teams coach??? (Rhetorical)

Comment by Imma Man! Im 40! 11.19.13 @ 9:00 am

Steve Pederson continues to be a cancer in athletics but no one does a thing about it. Makes it pretty clear the athletic departments priorities… Should never have let Jeff Long leave. He created energy and excitement.

Comment by Upittbaseball 11.19.13 @ 9:36 am

I thought giving it to Conner was the right choice, but the formation was wrong. Should have spread them out and at least made them think pass.
All year this OL has not got the job done in this situation, and last year also. When the D knows what we are doing we are doomed.

Comment by frankarms 11.19.13 @ 9:48 am

you are correct frankarms.

Final thing on this subject. Chyrst let the most important play of the game (yes with all the other gaffes, PITT still could have won the game), hinge on the worst part of the team, the O-Lines ability. I think everyone will agree the weak link on the team by far is the O-Line.

And yet it was laid squarely on their shoulders.
And to add to that you had two reserves playing on the left side. And you had no lead blocker and a RB lined up 6-7 yards deep.

That play call is on PC & JR. They didn’t put PITT in the best position to succeed with that formation, with that play call.

Comment by EMel 11.19.13 @ 12:16 pm

@ Caw

Someone also said have Voitik in the pistol. Exactly. Why don’t we have that?

Comment by Caw Miller 11.19.13 @ 8:05 am

Because Chyrst only knows one thing, the pro-set.
Don’t think we’ll ever see ‘The Pistol’ with PC, cause it’s a spread offense, but he could have some type of ‘veer’ option incorporated into the offense, since Voytik can run. They say.

We ran the veer during Johnny Majors’ years and even Matt Cavenaugh ran it, the last time we won the National Championship in ’76.

Comment by EMel 11.19.13 @ 2:31 pm

Uppitt:
You wrote a comment recently that Pederson would be around for at least five years (the at least part is chilling, actually)and intimated Stevie was in the mix of something he shouldn’t know and would therefore be kept around as silence security)..
so what realistically can be done to get rid of
Pederson?

Comment by TonyinHouston 11.20.13 @ 8:56 pm

@ Tony.

We can hire someone with the name Tony, related to the LaRocca’s and whack him. lol

Comment by EMel 11.21.13 @ 1:08 am

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