The UNC Tarheels are heading to Pittsburgh in a matchup between two teams desperate for a win. Both need a win to continue to change the perception of their season; UNC wants to prove they’re better than their 1-5 start and Pitt is eager to grow off of the Notre Dame upset that may have been a season-changer. UNC is hot; they’ve won three straight games by an average of 21 points. Pitt has lost two of their last three, but last week’s upset suggests they may be ready to put their mid-season struggles behind them. It’s safe to say UNC and Pitt have reasons to be optimistic headed into Saturday’s contest.
On offense, UNC is heavily QB oriented with athletic sophomore Marquise Williams at the helm. Senior QB Bryn Renner is out for the rest of the season, but the offense didn’t miss a beat against Virginia with 415 total yards and 31 points (14 were scored by an interception and punt return). Williams is a prototypical mobile QB; he’ll run a lot but will struggle with accuracy and footwork (only 58% completion). He makes up for that with big plays. He’s averaging 13.1 yards per completion which is nearly two yards better than Renner.
When Williams goes to the air he has two great options. TE Eric Ebron is one of the best TEs in the country and may go to the NFL early after this season. He’s capable of putting up huge numbers against good opposition; he had 8 receptions for 199 yards and a score against Miami in a close loss. Ebron can cover the whole field and presents a matchup nightmare like any talented TE. At WR, sophomore Quinshad Davis is quietly emerging as one of the top playmakers in the ACC. He’s tied with FSU’s Rashad Greene for the top spot in receiving touchdowns (8). At 14.6 yards per reception, he’s not just catching screen passes either.
The running game, however, leaves a lot to be desired. UNC is using a four RB rotation, which should tell you right away something is amiss. Those four have combined for 203 carries, only 873 yards, and 5 touchdowns. For perspective, James Conner and Isaac Bennett have combined for 211 carries, 1020 yards and 11 touchdowns. They’re 106th in the country in rushing offense, which is a pathetic number when you have a mobile QB with 247 yards on the ground. Pitt’s numbers are comparable, but the huge amount of sack yardage, which the NCAA oddly considers rushing yards, drops the total dramatically. UNC did get the running game going against Virginia last week, but UVA appears to be a team who has completely given up on their season with seven straight losses.
It may not be entirely the fault of the RBs though. Their OL leaves a lot to be desired in pass protection as well. They’re allowing an average of 2.4 sacks per game, good for 90th out of 125 teams. 106th in rushing yards and 90th in sacks per game? Their OL may be as bad as Pitt’s has been. Like Pitt, their OL is young and still in progress. However, LT James Hurst has NFL potential.
The one thing Pitt’s defense has to be ready for is a trick play. UNC has run a WR or RB pass type play four times this season. The result? Four completions for 143 yards and three touchdowns. If UNC gets down early, they’ll open up the playbook to try and catch Pitt napping. With a mobile QB and numerous players who can complete a pass, those types of things are always a concern.
If this offense is going to work, Marquise Williams (I like typing Marquise for some reason) has to find ways to get the ball to Ebron and Davis or else their offense is doomed. They can’t run the ball and they don’t have much in the way of playmakers outside of those three. Williams has thrown an interception in both starts (4 total on the season). If the defense can fluster him and keep him contained, the Tarheels will struggle to score. If he has time and space, he has the ability to make big plays. Pressure and containment from the DL will be a huge factor and expect Aaron Donald to take advantage of an inexperienced right side of the OL.
I normally recommend a QB spy against mobile QBs, but an incredible TE like Ebron requires extra help. A 1 on 1 with a LB or S is a matchup he wins 99% of the time. If you pull a guy from coverage, that’s the guy who should be helping with Ebron. I think we’ll see a bit more zone coverage this week along with more five or six man rushes. Since the DEs are struggling to pass rush, have them play a little containment on the outside and pressure up the middle. Force Marquise Williams into quick decisions.
On defense, UNC’s 4-2-5 is rather mediocre. They’re 71st in total yards (89th rushing, 32nd passing) but better at only 54th in points (25.2 ppg). They’re sacking the QB less than twice per game and average about the same in takeaways; both of which rank on the low side of the middle of the pack. Pitt has seen the 4-2-5 already this season from Duke and it’d be a dream come true to see similar results. UNC’s is slightly different in that on top of the hybrid S/LB, they have a hybrid DE/LB who will play off in more of a 3-3-5 look at times. It’s useful because you can move him to either side to take advantage of mismatches.
There’s a reason UNC is 89th in rushing yards allowed: one less full blown LB means there’s one less big guy in the front seven. The 4-2-5 is more common in college football lately due to the usage of spread offenses; teams are afraid of speed on the outside, so they sacrifice strength on the inside. Establishing the run will be the key to scoring. When ECU dropped 55 points on this offense earlier in the season, they did so with 200+ rushing yards on the ground. Miami, South Carolina, Boston College, and Georgia Tech all ran the ball down the Tarheels’ throat for 200+ yards as well. Three of their past four opponents had 200+ rushing yards.
The key to UNC’s recent defensive improvement has been in the passing game. In the past three games, they’ve only allowed 391 yards through the air (130 per game) along with four interceptions, five sacks, and only one touchdown (which was in junk time by UVA’s backup QB). It hasn’t exactly hurt that BC and UVA are two of the worst passing offenses in the ACC, but results are results.
This shows how critical it will be for Tom Savage to continue to play disciplined and find the open receiver. The offense must establish the run, avoid turnovers and big mistakes, then take their shots. The running game was barely good enough against ND to force them to respect it. Once it was there, deep shots were available. Get the hybrid S/LB creeping up to the line of scrimmage and the offense’s job will get a lot easier.
There are two other important factors regarding the game. First will be penalties. UNC is 114th in the nation in penalties per game. Even in an easy victory like last week against UVA, they had 13 penalties for 102 yards. A bunch of them were stupid penalties like illegal formation and false start. UNC puts Pitt to shame when it comes to shooting themselves in the foot. Second is home field advantage. Pitt has won every game but against FSU at home. UNC is 1-3 on the road. Pitt’s offense plays a lot better at Heinz Field.
I think Pitt will scratch and claw to a close victory, 27-24. The offense likes home field and pulls off the win thanks to a huge game from James Conner, who takes advantage of the 4-2-5.
I look for us to use Parrish at FB as means of helping Conner/Bennett get through the Dline and get to the second level defenders. Parrish has done a good job as lead blocker all year. Savage has to continue to protect the ball. I believe UNC scored 2 TDs on interceptions last week, not one, but I could be wrong. Either way, they’ve needed interceptions to get points and stops. Our offense running the ball and avoiding turnovers will also keep their offense off the field.
Defensively we need to find a way to manage those 3 guys, which won’t be an easy task. AD will help a lot when it comes to Marquis (you’re right, it’s fun to type). Most importantly as you note, we can’t get burned on a trick play.
I’d add one thing though, their kicker hasn’t been great lately. He’s missed 2 fieldgoals and an extra point in the last two games. Finding a way to cotnain them on kick returns, will be important. We can’t let them score or get especially good field position.
I expect us to win though, 28-21 type game like last saturday.
The answer remains that nobody knows for sure, probably not even JD. He did not pass NCAA clearinghouse, and at the earliest, he will be enrolled in the upcoming semester. However, from what I have read, it’s becoming more and more likely that it will be next year.
Academics… has not qualified.
The lower his GPA is, the higher is test scores need to be. It’s pretty straight forward.
Only guy I think we have who can come close to matching up is Todd Thomas.
Have Thomas cover him regardless of what side of the line he lines up on. Don’t know if we have any zone schemes that would allow for that.
Maybe Justin does .
ikr. lol
This guy as Justin mentioned, loves his trick plays.
Expect to see a WR (more likely) or a RB, off a pitch or a reverse, throw a bomb to a streaking Ebron or WR as they’re going to try to suck the deep Safety help, up closer to the LOS. Similar to what ND did in their 80 yd TD throw.
Somebody even asked him from the audience at the Top of the Hill, where the radio show is broadcast from. what his favorite trick plays were. Fedora just laughed and said that was ‘secret info’ in so many words.
From a UNC perspective, here’s how they graded their last game against common opponent, the Cavaliers of Virginia.
After reading that article I linked, apparently Ebron & Williams(the 2nd string QB) aren’t exactly on the same page as of yet. Renner & Ebron were.
Let’s hope that continues on Saturday.
As already mentioned, NC plays FAST and has the potential to be a good football team. Pitt does not match up well against them.
We talked about “measuring stick” games earlier in the season, this is another one of those games. This game will demonstrate whether this young team has the mental fortitude to overcome it’s own good fortunes. If we win, it will be because the coaching staff and the older players/leaders of this team have gotten through to the younger players that you have to fight for every single win!
It doesn’t matter if it is against Duke or Miami, if you expect to waltz into the game and expect to just have the other team lay down for you then YOU LOSE!
Unfortunately I think that Pitt will learn that hard life lesson on Saturday. I hope that I’m wrong.
I also just don’t think they can beat us unless we turn the ball over. Savage has been very good of late in that category.
Tarheel:
One such legend claims it to be a nickname given during the U.S. Civil War, because of the state’s importance on the Confederate side, and the fact that the troops “stuck to their ranks like they had tar on their heels”.[2]
The term “Tar Heel” gained popularity during the Civil War.[3]
Sidenote: The last major Confederate Army (90,000 strong) , The Army of Tennessee, under General Joseph Johnston surrendered in Durham North Carolina, AFTER Lee’s Army of Northern Virginia surrendered at Appomattox 3 weeks earlier.
Ironically, General Johnston had been the overall Confederate commander in the war’s first battle in 1861, First Battle of Bull Run (or First Manassas) Johnston, post-war, eventually became a US Congressman and then Commissioner of Railroads in the Grover Cleveland Administration.
Although, I agree with you, I miss the old Rah Rah Dr. Tom.
I just think we are hoping that light bulbs have turned on and with it the tide.
Football is a game of momentum, we hope that we have it for two more games.
We had bad luck for two, good luck for one, is it too much to ask that our luck hold for at least one more game?
Never expected you to turn to the dark side. LOL
Some of the prettiest girls I’ve known have been North Carolina gals or of Carolina extraction — despite that, lets deny them the happy ending Saturday…sorry ladies, but bless your hearts!
We must console these Southern beauties after we whip their butts on Sat. haha
New Hampshire 84
Duquesne 81 (Dukes had a 4 pt halftime lead but folded down the stretch at Palumbo)
Bucknell 90 (use to date a Southern gal named Gaynell, ikr) (she was a hottie strawberry blond)
Pedo State 80 (Pedo State has the dubious distinction of being the 1st Big Joke team to lose a game, go figure) (a whopping 4600 bored souls were in attendance at Creepy Valley, counting little boys in the locker room/showers)
Old Dominion 77
Howard 57
Navy 98
Goucher 47 (Don’t ask)
Mercer 95
Reinhardt 53 (Col. Klink graduated from here)
Eastern Kentucky 114
Warren Wilson 45 (not to be confused with Warren’s older brother, Woodrow. Warren owned the largest KFC in Kentucky)
Texas-Arlington 111
Howard Paine 64 (Howard was Thomas’s lesser known brother, he wrote a smaller, less well known pamphlet called ‘No Common Sense’. While it was not well received in the 18th century, it’s making a revival in the 21rst century, since Obamacare has launched.
The scores & commentary you won’t see on ESPN.
To Emell: enjoyed the humor. Always read the morning
BB scores. Lots of obscure schools play hoops however
you referenced several new ones.
Net on This week’s game: UNC is a tough matchup; we need to run the ball for 200 yards and score while keeping their
skill guys off the field; sack the QB!
UNC likes to think they are an Ivy…..however lots of cheating
and fraud has happened in recent years. Such as summer school Afro-American studies course taught by a professor who was not even in the country and most of the students were BB players. FYI everyone who took the course passed. And you guys thought Uconn cheated?
454 psu tickets available vs purdue
You have to admit they have loyal fans
We need to learn some of their brainwashing techniques.
@wbb Love it. WE AREN’T…PENN STATE
I still want the dance vid on the big screen at Heinz Field.
H2P Stick it to the Tarheels
I’m not on board about “game momentum” carrying over from week to week. Momentum is fleeting and appears and evaporates in an instant. A very good example of how we lose the ND game is that inexplicable play when Savage’s arm was hit and he fumbled right into the hands of a ND lineman and NO ONE recovers the fumble for like 3 seconds. Right there was a perfect example of Pitt getting really, really lucky! That was a returned fumble for a TD if any of the 3 or 4 ND players that were around that ball continue to ploay until they hear a whistle.
Those are the kind of circumstances that create a major shift in momentum, not something that happened a week ago in a totally different game. They get that score, Pitt loses!
Last week, Pitt matched up well against ND. The Vegas point spread showed that, plus Pitt always gets up for ND. Don’t get me wrong, momentum and playing with controlled emotion is essential to bring home a win, but those factors occur within the moment of the current contest, that’s why it’s called “MOMENT”UM.
Irrespective of what happens in the next three games, you can never take that ND win away from those Pitt players, job well done, but it is only one game! IMO, that game means little going forward. What are you going to do about the Tarheels is what I want to know, and like I’ve already mentioned earlier, I don’t think that Pitt matches up well against these guys.
UNC is fast, they play fast and their new starting QB is dangerous when he tucks the ball and runs. The key to a Pitt win won’t be what our offense does, although as others have agreed on, a solid Pitt running game will be a key if our offense is going to put up points on these guys. But the real key will be pressure on Williams. Aaron Donald will probably be double teamed all night, my question is who steps up to create pressure and containment on their mobile QB, BESIDES AD?
This contest is a perfect situation for a “trap game”, UNC is a good football team, a fast football team, a football team that could easily hand Pitt their fifth loss if we come into it unprepared and flat.
That was the only thing that I was previously exposing. This is still the same team that lost to Navy and Ga. Tech. Just because we were lucky enough to win against ND means NOTHING!
IF Pitt wins on Saturday, I will be overjoyed, this is just the type of game that a “young” team will drop the ball on if they decide to coast in their preparation for. If the Pitt defense does show up for this one and brings home a win, it demonstrates to me that this young team is in the process of burying the “Same Old Pitt” mentality. We’ll see soon enouogh.
As always, Hail to Pitt!
I want to see deep attempts and completions against NC and I want to see Ibrahim get more touches, especially on passes out of the backfield.
If the NC defense is really as fast as advertised then counter it with sitting down Holtz and playing Garner in his place. I think we have underused Garner all season long anyway. He’s the type of player who can take a short crossing or hook route a long way after the reception.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Grigsby or Bradley on the field more on Saturday. Both are as fast or faster than Gonzalez and are quicker in reaction time off the snap IMO.
As mentioned above Parrish is turning out to be a very good FB to run behind and his pass blocking has gotten better each week. We haven’t used him much as a ball carrier/receiver but if you remember he was slated as an H-Back at first so he can move.
That might surprise and offset a fast rush if done a few times. I’d like to see him on a wheel route once or twice as we did with Hynoski sometimes. Parrish hasn’t lost yardage on a carry yet so I’d like to see him get three or four carries a game also.
Conner needs to understand exactly what his own strength is and team up with following Parrish on North-South rushing plays through the LOS. After Conner gets to that second level of defense then he is able to pick up extra yards with both his power and his surprising speed.
IMO we have to do a hell of a lot better on the ground and keep winning the Turnover battles for us to have shots at winning the last three games.
One last thing and this could be very big for 2014. WR Ronald Jones, (who I think is very good) will be eligible to play and his teaming up with Voytik could show some excellent results. Look at what he did in part time playing in 2011. He was injured for most of 2012.
… just throwing it out for thoughts.
I propose something else for pressure. Murphy and Durham have done a very good job of keeping contain this season. Almost too well, as they have apparently been coached to take an outside lane at all costs. They contain, but in doing so our coaches have more or less given up on mixing up the opponents OLine and taken them out of being able to go inside, chase the QB. We need to run some twists and X stunts with our LB’s and move Aaron D around in where he lines up. This is quite simple – if we line up with this bend but don’t break crap and have a coaching staff scared to death about a mobile QB we lose. Mark it down. I’d blitz his ass and keep coming and take some chances. If our coaches revert back to the 8 and 10 yard cushion we also lose. Hit them at the line occasionally and mix things up on an inexperienced QB.
The question is “IF Pitt loses, is it really a “LETDOWN?”
Let me see, against Notre Dame, turnovers were THREE to ZERO in Pitt’s favor? A fumble in the RED ZONE, an interception in the END ZONE.
Yes, it is an understatement of SEISMIC PROPORTIONS to say “Luck did not go the way of the Irish.”
This Saturday, the question will once again be posed, “Exactly how good is Pitt?”
Now, the challenge is likely to be greater this Saturday given how unlikely it is that Pitt will find it so fortunate in the turnover game and the NC is widely considered to be better than its record. Even so, salvation at the foot of the TARHEEL is possible!
If it comes, it will come in the way of another TOTAL TEAM PERFORMANCE which in two seasons is becoming the trademark of a Paul Chryst coached team when things fall into place.
And wihtout question, there is no more important part of the team when things fall into place than those “BIG PALOOKAS” on the O-Line who… after weeks of hibernation… FINALLY had their official “Coming Out Party” last weekend.
The challenge becomes even greater when you consider the fact that those Tarheels the PALOOKAS will be blocking will not be the MONSTER SLUGS from South Bend that were pushed around last Saturday. These Tarheels… you might say… are pretty fleet of foot.
But, I am keeping the faith. If the pattern from last year holds true… a TOTAL TEAM PERFORMANCE under Chryst can be expected to be followed by another… as it did twice in 2012.
But “IF” the “LETDOWN” against NC comes to be… OH the VITRIOL that will once again spew forth from those who did not give these Panthers a chance against the Irish.
But never fear. Pitt does play Miami this year.
I think we see what kind of back Conner can be on the goal line. When you only have to get 1-3 yards, dancing doesn’t help. He’s been immensely successful on those goal line carries because he’s only thinking about going full steam ahead.
Honestly, I’d like to see Conner as the #3 back and a DE. #3 back gets short yardage runs only (maybe 3-5 per game) so he won’t wear himself out on those runs.
With Ollison, Briggs, and hopefully James or McKenzie, we’ll add 3 new bodies to RB and hopefully James or McKenzie ends up a big time starter early on. Bennett graduates, then it’s James/McKenzie, Ollison/Briggs, Conner as the top 3. Move Ibrahim back to the secondary where we need more help.
We can only hope that Sandusky is getting his due in prison. Learning what it is like to be on the other side of the equation.
H2P Stick it to the Tarheels
I’ve been accused this week of going to “the dark side” myself, but to the contrary, I’m just trying to get people to understand that we must keep an even keel throughout the entire season, no matter what just happened or what lays directly ahead. One win, even against those self rightous basterds from Notre Dame does not make a season, not by a long shot. This team has the potential to have won every game on it’s schedule. We even caught FSU at the perfect time to open the season, even though FSU proved, without a doubt, that Pitt was waaaaay overmatched by the likes of Winston&Co. But we could run the table in these last three games if everything falls perfectly into place for Pitt, but we could just as easily not win another game for the balance of the season ending our season on the day after Thanksgiving. There is still so much about this team and their potential that remains a mystery.
I like where Pitt is headed, but the good things that are transpiring with the program are not obvious or directly related, just yet, in our win loss record. I’d love to see a win on Saturday, I think that it would go a long way in demonstrating this young team’s mental focus, being able to move forward, concentrating on the task at hand, next foe, rather than reminiscing on the previous week’s come from behind underdog victory over the Domers. Call me pessimistic, but I’m just not feeling it this week, PLEASE, prove me wrong Panthers and beat the frickin tar out of those Heels!
Hail to Pitt!
Made me smile.
For those understandably concerned about the let down, I think the team realizes that with only 3 games left, and 2 being against Miami and another on the road, UNC at home is the key game. Getting bowl eligible right now, this week, is something that will make them sharp and help them focus. If this were earlier in the year I think we have a bigger concern but so close to the end with so few opportunities left, I like our chances. The coaches and players know the end is near.
I honestly don’t think UNC can beat us at home if we don’t throw an interception or fumble the ball and we don’t give up a special teams score. They score a lot of points on special teams and D. If we can avoid turnovers and play decent special teams D, UNC won’t score enough to beat us.
Funny story, last week at the ND game was the first time that I can remember that nobody yelled my way during the game to “SIT THE HELL DOWN”! I even had one guy on the way out after the big win thank me for getting the crowd that was behind us, up off their butts to help raise the noise level during those pivitol plays late in the game. Imagine that?
BTW, both back-up CBs (Howard and Coles) are out .. replaced by Pardner and Banks
I know I sound like a former coach but if we are able to run and control the clock, and not turn the ball over … we can win.
WUAB, an independent channel in Cleveland is part of the ACC network
Warehouse District is west side of downtown up towards the FB stadium
“BTW, both back-up CBs (Howard and Coles) are out .. replaced by Pardner and Banks
OSU plays Ill at noon … keep away from those A-holes, trouble is most people there probably be Buck fans
NC
If you happen to be strolling past the Ritz Carlton in Cleve. their concierge will surely lead you in the right direction. Just go in and pretend you’re staying there. That is if you’re not !
@Justin – Conner has a 4.7 YPC average and fits the mold of the Big Back that Chryst loved while he was at UW. Conner is almost exactly the same size and has the same running style as John Clay was at Wisconsin – Clay had 3415 yards in three seasons as a starter weighing in at 6’1″ & 250. Conner is currently 6’2″ and 240 coming out of camp.
I believe that Chryst is intent on replicating his Wisconsin offenses with those big OL recruits we have already on board and coming in and he wants a Big Back and a more shifty speedster back in the backfield.
In essence I think we’ll see Conner get even more PT and carries at RB over the next few years with a better OL which I think will improve year to year. If anyone gets supplanted by a star recruit like Washington or James it will be Bennett, who graduates next season.
Short bursts — Pitt’s longest runs from scrimmage in each game this season:
Opponent Yards Player
Florida State 20 Tyler Boyd
New Mexico 38 James Conner
Duke 40 Conner
Virginia 16 Rachid Ibrahim
Virginia Tech 12 Isaac Bennett
Old Dominion 31 Bennett
Navy 12 Bennett
Georgia Tech 7 Bennett
Notre Dame 11 Bennett
——————————————
Obviusly, Pitt does not have a homerun threat at RB. Yes, I know of Bennett’s speed, etc but it would certainly help if we can get a breakaway RB threat in this year’s recruiting class.
