I’m going to do two columns on this subject, one today and one tomorrow since the game is 6 days away (5 days tomorrow).  Thus, tomorrow’s column will be “Five Reasons FSU Should Beat Pitt.” Even the optimist in me can’t deny that FSU is a heavy favorite (1o points according to Vegas). But, that doesn’t mean there aren’t ways Pitt can win this game.

Reason #1: Ball control. Ball control is the ultimate equalizer. Control the clock and limit opportunities. Time and time again, this is how disciplined teams beat superior talents. The more your offense is on the field, the less their offense is. FSU has the talent to make big plays against any defense. Their top 2 WRs had 70+ yard touchdowns last year. Their top 2 returning RBs averaged nearly 6 yards per carry. Keep them off of the field and all of the sudden one 3 and out series for FSU and they don’t see the ball until the next quarter.

Pitt has the talent to grind long drives. If Bennett and Conner are healthy, they can get 3-5 yards on first and second down and make sure we see plenty of 3rd and short opportunities. With highly talented TEs in Holtz and Garner plus WRs who can make someone miss in the open field, the offense could nickel and dime FSU for 8-10 play drives. I can see the drive now. Bennett for 4, Savage to Garner for 7, Conner for 3, Conner for 4, reverse to Boyd for 8, etc. etc. etc. This team has the discipline to play smart and limit FSU’s opportunities.

Reason #2: Turnovers. FSU’s starting QB is a redshirt freshman. Our starting secondary has appeared in close to 90 collegiate games. 3 of them were starters almost all of last season. All 3 have a knack for playmaking. Hendricks was an interception machine last season. Pitts is quickly becoming one of the best CBs in the country. Williams is an experienced starter who has a good shot at playing on Sundays. If Pitt wins the turnover battle by 2 or more, I anticipate a victory on Labor Day.

Reason #3: Underestimating Pitt. FSU has a rather poor history when it comes to road games against unranked opponents. Since 2002 (possibly further, I stopped there), FSU has lost at least 1 road game to an unranked opponent. In 2012 it was 7-5 NC State. 2011 saw FSU lose to a Wake Forest team that finished 6-6. 2010 was 8-4 NC State, 2009 was 8-4 Boston College and 8-4 Clemson. I could go on, but you get the point. FSU will screw up one road game to an inferior opponent every season like clockwork. They did it two more times each season from 2004-2007, albeit under Bobby Bowden.

I’ve maintained that I think Pitt will go 8-4 or 7-5. Beat FSU? 8-4. Lose in a hard fought match? 7-5. If we get our asses handed to us and don’t recover, it could get ugly. That syncs up right with the teams FSU has lost to. Above average, but certainly not top 25 worthy. FSU could come in cocky and think they’ll just impose their will on the lowly school from the Big Least.

Reason #4: Tom Savage. Savage has had an up and down offseason. He’s erratic on short and medium throws and is a huge question mark given how long it has been since he has played in a real game. What he does have is a strong arm, the ability to throw to anywhere on the field, and more talent than any QB we’ve had the past decade other than Joe Flacco. Talented yet erratic QBs will have “hot” games where they’re just in the zone. Between Street, Boyd, and Garner, Pitt has playmakers outside that can get yards in chunks. If Savage is hot and threading the needle, he does have the talent to take over the game. At practice, we’ve seen glimpses of his talent. If he catches fire, Pitt could rack up 30+ points.

It’s not likely, but watch football long enough and you’ll see days where QBs just can’t do wrong. Tino, Stull, and Palko were not QBs with that level of talent. Savage has it. If any player on the field can unexpectedly take over the game, it’s the QB. It probably won’t happen, but as Pitt fans, we’ve seen crazier.

Reason #5: Homefield advantage. Worst case scenario, there will be 60k fans there on Monday night. It should be the best home crowd since Cinci in 2009. If you recall, the fighting Wannstaches got out to a large lead only to watch it slip away after a Marty Gilyard kickoff return. Granted, FSU is probably better than that Cinci squad and Pitt is not as good as they were in ’09. Even still, an early lead could keep the crowd into it and force a young FSU QB into mistakes.

Reason #6: Luck. Football is a game of inches. A QB’s pass is 3 inches high and results in an interception. A punt catches a last second gust of wind and the returner drops it. A DB goes for the pick and accidentally tips it to the WR. A LB trips and allows the RB into the open field. Pitt should’ve gone to OT with Cinci in ’09 but a botched extra point was the killer. Against Notre Dame last year, there were at least 3 things that could’ve gone Pitt’s way that would’ve resulted in a win. While FSU is certainly better on paper, a few little pieces of luck can completely change a game. Maybe for once, we get that luck.