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February 21, 2013

Maybe I’m actually tired of expansiopocolypse. Or maybe this one doesn’t seem worth the effort.

It started with a report from a 247 site. That the Big Ten would give an offer to UNC to join, and probably take Virginia (or GT or FSU) to make it an even 16. Sure the Baylor and Clemson iterations were dead wrong over the summer, but since this came from a Maryland one. And they got it right with Maryland to the Big Ten, it has to be true. Forget that Maryland-based rumor reports of the end of the ACC at the hands of the B1G could well be the next version of West Virginia-based rumor reports of the end of the ACC at the hands of the Big XII.

Take a breath.

Would the Big Ten like to add UNC and UVa? Probably if they want to go to 16. Delany has made it clear that it is now all about TV markets. It would fit with his East Coast interests and would be geographically contiguous. Is there really an offer to UNC? Maybe. There have been plenty of people saying that UNC has had a standing offer from the Big Ten for years.

I’m just not seeing UNC going anywhere.

1. ACC exit fees. Maryland and the ACC are involved in a lawsuit over the $50 million exit fees. The trial is proceeding, as the motion for dismissal by Maryland was rejected this week. No one is leaving the ACC until they see what they have to pay.

2. UNC is the ACC. Maryland fans were very split on this decision because of their history in the ACC. In the end Maryland left because they are in such a financial mess, they have no real choice. Now think about UNC. Their finances are fine. They have long been the center of ACC power. Maybe not as much as it used to be, but they hold a lot of influence in the conference (real and perceived). As we saw with Texas and the Big XII, power and influence over a conference is a strong deterrent to leaving.

3. State politics. Yes, it took a pedophile to get Pennsylvania to get involved with one of the major state universities, but most other states are not that hands off. Especially when there is more than one prominent university with athletic aspirations, political power and money.

Think about the fight in Texas when the Pac-10 came knocking. How Baylor (a private school, no less) started fighting to stay relevant with as much political pressure as it could bring. Texas Tech would have been brought along to placate state politics and Texas A&M got really ticked. How Texas A&M finally got to go to the SEC — thanks in no small part to political support from their alumni governor.

UNC and NC State are under the same state education board. You really think the NC State faction would support them leaving the conference that easily? You don’t think political pressure would be brought by Wake Forest and Duke?

How about in Virginia where political pressure was used to force VT into the ACC in the 2003 raid of the Big East? Think it would be that easy for Virginia to leave the ACC? No matter how much VT makes googly eyes to the SEC, until they get that invite they aren’t going to easily let Virginia go B1G.

4. They may not be the real targets. This might be the long-con. Delany has to know that UNC is extremely unlikely to go anywhere. But to let it out about an offer adds to the air of abrupt instability in the ACC. The schools that would be easier to persuade, and not have to worry about messy state politics become even more eager. I’m thinking Florida State and Georgia Tech. They fit academically. They are in very desirable areas for population growth, media markets and recruiting territories.

Take a breath.





Plus the big thing, those two would add enough TV market money to make sense to the PAC 12.

Comment by EMel 02.21.13 @ 9:39 pm

typo ** those two WOULDN’T ADD ENOUGH TV money to make sense to the PAC 12.

Comment by EMel 02.21.13 @ 9:40 pm

I don’t read many of those other blogs that cover Pitt football and basketball.

Is Chris Peak considered a cheerleader or a neutral observer ??

Comment by EMel 02.21.13 @ 9:49 pm

Good stuff. thanks Wbb and Emel.

If FSU is blocked from the SEC (the way BC blocked U con)… then their option is the B-12 and do they really want that? Clemson there must be a story there as well???

who else would go SEC and be a doormat? (honest question). b-10 you have to wonder as well in addition to great points here will any of these guys actually figure out that logistics and barren wasteland make for bad long term decisions?

seems ACC under some immediate pressure because of strategic error not blocking b-10 out of north east… but if they can weather the moment and perhaps get more tv $ … long term, just seems more coherent geographically, brand, and quality potential.

always thought the best defense is a good offense… yeah, what about going after Penn State?? or is that totally not realistic?

Comment by Pittscript 02.21.13 @ 10:04 pm

Hello Frankcan,

There are many articles showing the gap between the Big Ten and the ACC is closing. Here is one following this paragraph. Once the ACC network comes on board, the differential will close further.

link to accfootballrx.blogspot.com

One point everyone is missing is that the Big Ten reached out to the weak sister of the ACC, Maryland, because they were getting concerned about Penn State leaving and with the ACC taking Notre Dame on mostly their terms. The Big Ten always thought Notre Dame to the Big Ten was a given. With the Internet slowly weakening cable TV’s pricing power, the Big Ten network will become less of a money generator not more.

Last note, I fully agree the ACC completely missed the boat when they did not take Rutgers with Pitt and Syracuse. That would have isolated Penn State completely. It was a tactical mistake by Swofford.

Comment by John In South Carolina 02.21.13 @ 10:09 pm

dont think so the big 12 is safe all teams gave up thoes tv rights so as long as the big 12 has the tv rights no one will go any were.
the big 12 is safe the big 10 is safe the sec is
safe only the big east and acc can be raided

unless espn gives us a tv deal that is the same as the outhers or every one in the acc signs over there tv rights like the big 12 did to the ACC.

Comment by FRANKCAN 02.21.13 @ 10:18 pm

JOHN IN SC that is weong who ever wrote that does not know what he id doeind the acc will not see 19 million for many years tv contracts are strung out
they will get 12.3 million in the fiscal year nov 2012 it will go up so mutch every so many years
first to 14 mill then 17 mill then near the end 19 mill . we all went over this when they first signed the deal

if you look into 3 or 4 sights you will see this id true no one in the acc is geting 19 mill per year now or in the next 4 years.

Comment by FRANKCAN 02.21.13 @ 10:27 pm

The bottom line of all this expansion crap seems to be that nobody knows what in the hell is really going to happen. I was worried much more about this than the state of Pitt football which appears to be moving in the right direction. I do feel a bit better about the ACC after reading some of your posts-it may not be as vulnerable as I had thought. Next question–When will the Pitt/ACC schedule be out? Neither the Pitt or ACC sites have much info other than who we will play-no dates. My neighbor who is a Techie found the same thing when he looked at the VA. Tech website. So how do we plan our trip from Baltimore to Blacksburg for the game? Seriously, is there a deadline or even a target date for the schedule? Any info will be welcome. HTP!

Comment by OPFIM 02.21.13 @ 10:30 pm

not sure if all ACC shedules are finalized … including whether Pitt opens with FSU or Nova

Comment by wbb 02.21.13 @ 10:34 pm

Wbb or EMel please explain to john how the tv deals
worked in the ACC how it starts out at 12.3 million and ends up years from now at 19 mill
is it call pro rated or something do you all remmer last year when we found out we get just 14 million per school for years.
and how upset we were
or is it called back loaded help me out here explain to john please

Comment by FRANKCAN 02.21.13 @ 10:43 pm

The real irony in all this is that you leave a conference where Notre Dame has special deal. Then they end up following you to the ACC where they get a special deal. Is this a great country or what!

Comment by Justinian 02.21.13 @ 10:54 pm

That’s right Frankcan

Most of these TV contracts are on a graduated scale and are more back-end loaded.

Additionally Nebraska & WVU for instance are NOT getting the same money as the other teams as well in the first few years.

Comment by EMel 02.21.13 @ 11:07 pm

come on some body get on here and explain the acc tv deal to john i know you are out there i belive we found out it is back loaded.
Wbb help me out here.

Comment by FRANKCAN 02.21.13 @ 11:07 pm

In WVcc’s case. it’s called ……

The Hillbilly factor. 🙂

Comment by EMel 02.21.13 @ 11:09 pm

google Haywoood WVUmand a scout post comes up saying Haywood was offered WVU job first.

Sorry John, the money between the ACC and the Big Ten isn’t even close. I’ve read a bunch of articles on conferences and its significant. Conference TV deals are back loaded and increase year by year. However when they announce the deal they say the highest amount to make conference look better. There is also an issue with second and third tier rights that ACC teams get screwed on.

When you guys say ACC should have taken Rutgers you are assuming that was a viable option. I don’t think it was. Rutgers and UConn would have had to add about 30 million a year in new TV money to make it worth that. The Big 12 can’t even get that much or FSU and another school. Rutgers was more valuable to Big 10. Also even if ACC added Rutgers with Pitt. Rutgers still leaves when Big 10 asks. Just like Pitt would leave ACC tomorrow if asked.

Comment by Wardapalooza 02.21.13 @ 11:13 pm

The ACC announced this year a new 15-year television rights deal with ESPN that was to pay member schools an average of $17.1?million per year. Swofford said 80?percent of the league’s TV revenue is driven by football, and men’s basketball is responsible for the rest.

The ACC’s TV contract is subject to renegotiation, Swofford said, with the addition of Notre Dame, which will receive an equal share of basketball television revenue. The ACC and Notre Dame will enter a unique agreement that allows both to keep their own football TV revenue.

The five football games between Notre Dame and ACC schools will rotate year-by-year – three at ACC sites and two at Notre Dame one season, and then three at Notre Dame and two at ACC sites the next. Games broadcast at ACC sites will fall under the conference’s TV contract, and Notre Dame will own the rights for its home games.

Notre Dame’s football broadcast partnership with NBC will expire in 2015, but Swarbrick said the university has “had very productive discussions” with the network about future broadcasting rights

Read more here: link to newsobserver.com

Comment by EMel 02.21.13 @ 11:23 pm

Then this: (from Chicago Tribune)

As for renegotiation of the media rights deal with Notre Dame in the fold, the ACC has wasted little time opening a dialogue with ESPN.

“We will renegotiate our television contract with ESPN and we’ve already begun those discussions,” Swofford said. “Obviously beforehand we had already done some analysis as far as what impact that Notre Dame’s involvement with our league would have on that agreement and we exepct that to be a positive one.”

As for that timeline?

“I’m not sure negotiations on television ever happen as quickly as you think they will,” Swofford said, “but I would not anticipate that would be a long, drawn-out affair.”

As far as I know those negotiations have not been completed or the details haven’t been released.

Comment by EMel 02.21.13 @ 11:31 pm

EMel then we found out that was back loaded
and for what 4 years we would get 14 million per school or 5 years something like that and we dont get any of the ND MONEY till they come on board in
what 2015

Comment by FRANKCAN 02.21.13 @ 11:35 pm

so what advantage does ND bring? they have their own seat at the BCS decision table, own football $, so no incentive ever to merge with a conference.

so what does their alignment do for the ACC other than pissing off the b-10 to get aggressive and F$#% with us?

Comment by Pittscript 02.21.13 @ 11:37 pm

Yes Frankcan,

I posted that 8 or 9 posts ago. (up ^^)

It’s an ‘AVERAGE’ of $17.1 million as it sits now.

It’s not $17 million in year 1 or 2

Comment by EMel 02.21.13 @ 11:48 pm

nov 19 2012 a report abought maryland leaveing
the acc the acc paid maryland 14.8 million dollars
at same time all big 10 schools recived 23.7 mill
per school and sense then 3 schools have been
added to the ACC .

Comment by FRANKCAN 02.22.13 @ 12:00 am

from the horses mouth no one leaving ,season ticket sales great,how about 95 for nd club,also buy one get one free if u bring ur invisible significant other.

Comment by paul shannon 02.22.13 @ 8:25 am

Not seeing how the Big XII is more vulnerable than the ACC at this time. It is Delaney who is pushing the enevelope right now while the PAC 12 appears to be content. I think Delaney is ticked at ND partnering up with the ACC as he now sees that his big prize is in jeopardy of eventually taking its football program to another conference. He knows that there are only two viable conferences for ND – the ACC and the Big Ten. Not sure how the PAC 12 gets to 16 but I don’t see how the SEC or Big Ten get to 16 without poaching ACC teams.

Comment by Floyd 02.22.13 @ 9:15 am

The Big 12 is a house of cards….more to the point, it is a house of ONE card and that is Texas.
WVU is languishing and their brand has taken a serious hit; potentially lethal hit at that. The euphoria of finding a port in a storm having work off, their logistics don’t work. Man they have to go a long way just to take a piss.
FSU or Clemson their doesn’t make sense and making money is one thing: how much you keep is another.
UNC to the Big Ten? Never…I can start a rumor about me and Charlize Theron if I want (“I deny any and all rumors that we are involved. she is a lovely woman and I respect her immensely”). But it doesn’t make it true. It doens’t mean it makes sense either. But it does make it news.

Comment by sfpitt 02.22.13 @ 9:17 am

@Floyd.

Ok here we go:

Texas, Ok, TT & OSU go to PAC 12 making PAC16

K-State & Kansas go to Big 10 making 16

WVU & Baylor(or Iowa St) go to SEC making 16

There you go, all of them have 16 and no teams were poached from the ACC. ACC can add Uconn & TCU (or Cincinnati) they at 16

Comment by EMel 02.22.13 @ 9:33 am

Big 12 maybe a house of cards but I don’t think that the Big Ten or SEC want their cards. That is the point. You can never make such an absolute statement “that NC will NEVER go to the Big Ten”. The ACC is not as stable as you assume. Florida State and Clemson were threatening to leave within the last year alone. I believe that the ACC is a much better conference than the Big XII but right now the Big Ten, SEC and PAC 12 hold all the cards.

Comment by Floyd 02.22.13 @ 9:38 am

Oooh I like the addition of TCU into the ACC,
gets the ACC into Texas, specifically Dallas/Ft. Worth. And opens up Texas a little more for recruiting purposes.

Oh I like it. They should make me commissioner. lol

Comment by EMel 02.22.13 @ 9:38 am

PAC 12 does not hold many cards…..as they have no expansion options…other than hoping Texas and her consorts want to join them.

Other than that, they have NOTHING.

The ACC has what they all wanted….Notre Dame.
Granted for now it’s on a limited basis, but that could change in a couple years.

Comment by EMel 02.22.13 @ 9:41 am

I’ve hired a couple Ninja’s btw to get rid of Delaney.

Don’t tell anyone !

Comment by EMel 02.22.13 @ 9:45 am

I agree Emel that ND was a big get for the ACC but that doesn’t mean that the conference is not vulnerable. I think the next few years are going to be crucial for the ACC. The further the next expansion moves are pushed down the road, the better for the ACC. I’m concerned that Delaney will strike again in the short term. Let’s hope that the ACC strikes a richer tv deal in the near future.

Comment by Floyd 02.22.13 @ 9:52 am

honest question… what does the ACC get for ND? Given their own seat at the BCS table with conference commissioners, and own TV $, why would they ever fold football into a conference?

@ sfpitt, LMAO “Man they have to go a long way just to take a piss.” haha, funny…

good stuff on the conferences, thanks… seems if ACC could lock up more TV $ that would take short term heat off? as Frankcan said, why wouldn’t ESPN step up and support football partner?

Comment by Pittscript 02.22.13 @ 10:11 am

also out there if nd goes to big ten , acc left alone ,i say full mem. or go

Comment by paul shannon 02.22.13 @ 11:19 am

TCU will have to improve greatly in BB though…..the ACC really wants to have the best BB conference. Would be great for FB though. I’m sure they would greatly like to improve their BB program, but is a Texas school right for us?

Comment by Jackagain 02.22.13 @ 3:14 pm

I would love to see ND go to the B1G….they can have them. Who wants 1-2 loses in BB to them every year?

I agree Paul…all or nothing…unless they agree to go all in after NBC drops their mutual FB contract.

Comment by Jackagain 02.22.13 @ 3:17 pm

@Floyd
What do you mean you can never make an absolute statement like NC will never go to the Big Ten? I just did!
I get your point, but I don’t agree with it. The Big ten would take UT in less time than it takes Mac Brown to comb his hair. UT is a great school with smoking hot women. Texas is a huge state with huge TV markets! Anyone who doesnt want them in their conference is a fool.

Comment by SFPitt 02.22.13 @ 5:24 pm

RE ACC tv revenue – there seem to be a lot of “experts”. Forbes recently reported on total revenue by conference which shows ACC got an avg of $20M per team in TV money alone last year:

link to forbes.com

I don’t know who is right, but I see no reason to trust any of the other sources any more than Forbes.

Comment by Hokie Mark 02.22.13 @ 8:45 pm

If NC and VA want to leave the ACC for the B1G let them pay the $50,000,000 exit fee and leave. With MD already leaving, that’s $150,000,000 in the ACC coffers. Somehow I don’t see these schools throwing away $50,000,000, but…

Comment by MariettaMike 02.23.13 @ 8:21 am

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