I know it is common in just about every city, but I am not a big fan of the cross-media thing. Where a local columnist also does the radio show. (And by that, I mean, my general problem not specific to a particular guy.) Not because his work suffers or because he isn’t particularly good. It bothers me because every column written takes on an undertone of preparing for a topic on the radio show.
I thought about this as a couple weeks ago Joe Starkey did a column on Steven Adams. This week Ron Cook had his own column. Both centered on the issue of whether Steven Adams would return for his sophomore year (or even junior year). And hey, Chris Mueller also did a Steven Adams column — though, he is more radio guy first so I probably cut a little slack on that. For the record, Starkey thinks he will. Cook says, “who cares.”
In both you can almost feel how this is just prelude to using it as a topic on their respective shows.
Okay, I’ll take the bait. I believe Adams plans to come back, but I won’t be surprised if he goes pro based on the rate of his improvement. Sad to say, the Nerlens Noel injury may very well provide a boost to his place in the draft after slipping into projections that say the teens to the twenties.
His numbers may not look impressive, but look at the #9 pick from last year, Andre Drummond. The UConn one-and-done put up less than outstanding numbers and still went lottery.
Drummond:
MPG — PPG- RBG–BPG—FG%-FT%
| 28.4 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 2.7 | .538 | .295 |
Adams:
| 23.4 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.0 | .594 | .404 |
Adams has shown steady improvement. Especially in recent weeks.
“Steve is starting to show what he is really all about,” junior forward Lamar Patterson said. “Everyone has heard of what he can do, but now he’s starting to show it. He’s one of the most talented big men, I think, in the country. That’s a big statement for a freshman, but we’re starting to see the real Steve Adams now.”
Pitt had played without a legitimate low-post scoring threat since DeJuan Blair left for the NBA in 2009. The Panthers were good enough to win a Big East championship and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament in 2011, but Dixon wanted to return to the formula that worked so well when Blair, Aaron Gray and Chris Taft manned the middle for him early in his tenure.
“This is the first game we saw the results,” Dixon said. “We’ve been emphasizing it, trying to get better in that area.”
It was the first time Adams reached double figures since scoring 10 Dec. 19 against Delaware State, but this breakthrough game had been in the works. In the past six games, he is 22 for 36 from the field and averaging 9 points per outing.
“He’s more patient,” Patterson said. “He’s not as sporadic as when he first came in. That comes with being a freshman. As long as he keeps improving, we expect him to do big things.”
Adams is not doing much media. Pitt has shielded him. So, there is something of a big question mark regarding the kid and his future. That just fuels the speculation. And really, even if he did more media it wouldn’t change anything. Whatever he says now. Or next month mean nothing until the window to declare for the NBA draft.
If it helps, it seems the New Zealand media believes he’s staying for another year.
Before the start of the US college basketball season, rising Kiwi star Steven Adams was tipped to spend just one year with the Pittsburgh Panthers, before declaring for the NBA draft.
But it now seems almost certain that he will return for at least another year at Pittsburgh, which former NBA player and ESPN college basketball analyst LaPhonso Ellis said would be a smart move.
“One more year of college development will be great for him. What it will help him with is his understanding of the American game, because it’s so different.
“One more year in college will enhance his skill level and put him in a better situation to get drafted next year.”
Ellis has been impressed with Adams’ growth since the start of the season. He believed his game would keep evolving as he became more consistent with his play.
“He’s better now than he was in November. Because of his work ethic, you’ll continue to see him get better. I’m really excited about his future.”
Adams’ old mentor from New Zealand won’t speculate on what Adams will do in April. But he does say this about the free throw shooting.
That is one area letting him down (averaging 37.5 per cent). Is that a confidence or technique issue?
Neither. He damaged his thumb five weeks ago. It’s heavily strapped and giving him restriction. He has to make some adjustments because he’s been shooting them pretty poor.
What about his development in other areas?
Overall, he’s making tremendous progress. As a freshman you can feel like you’re doing nothing right because the coach tries to tear you down and build you back up.
But he’s third in the Big East in field goal percentage (58.3 per cent) and fourth in blocks. And he’s getting better each game.
How is he enjoying life in general?
He’s loving it and he got a 3.8 grade point average in the first semester which was extremely surprising. He’s finding college life, team-mates and the environment good but at the same time challenging.
Hopefully he finds reasons to keep playing at Pitt (*cough* girlfriend *cough*). But, it wouldn’t be a mistake if he looks to the pros.
will be hard to resist. Let’s enjoy the ride this year.
Everyone worries about injuries, but only a catastrophic injury would prevent him from being drafted next year, and such an injury is unlikely to happen. Sure, he may get hurt at some point, but that doesn’t prevent guys from getting to the NBA very often.
Nerlens Noel may be hurt but if he goes to the draft, I will bet all tha I have he is drafted in the first round, still a millionaire.
For Adams, if he goes this year, his a mid to late 1st round pick. If he stays and improves (very likely) he’s a lottery pick and he makes more his first NBA year than he would in his first 3 NBA years were he to go this year and be drafted late in the first round. Worst case, he stays, gets hurts and drops in the first round a bit but still drafted, still a millionaire and better prepared for the NBA.
The factors he should be considering (Green = GO! Yellow = Maybe, Red = Stay):
*Draft Projection
Green = Lottery
Yellow = 1st round
Red = 2nd round
*Goals/Need/Situation
Green = Immediate $$ need
Yellow = NBA dream, shaky college situation
Red = Good college situation, immediate cash not an issue
*Readiness
Green = able to compete at NBA level immediately.
Yellow = game not quite there but able to handle NBA life style
Red = physically not ready and not quite mature enough
*Risk – Two kinds of risk 1) performance risk and 2) injury risk.
Green = consensus improvement projections are too high and/or injury risk is high (think Greg Oden and DeJuan Blair)
Yellow improvement projections are reasonable and no abnormal injury risk
Red = low expectations and low injury risk
Adams Scores:
Yellow/Red – No one has him as a lottery pick, most have him in the late first round.
Red – He comes from a bad situation in New Zealand, so his expectations are low. By all accounts, his family is not pressuring him to “bring home the bacon”. His college situation is good, and will be getting better if his GF is coming.
Red – He would get his ass beat up in the NBA right now and he could really use another year to adjust to the US and mature a little more. He needs some structure.
Yellow – The improvement expectations are high, but he has been meeting them so far. I think he will continue to improve steadily and then it’ll click and he’ll dominate. If that click happens this season, then maybe I would adjust this to Green. He is a big tough kid, no abnormal injury risk.
So unless something materially changes (i.e. his projection or performance) it is a no brainer for him to stay.
See, it is all so simple when you break it down scientifically!
College sports cow down to media for the $$. When Pitt enters the ACC expect to see Thursday night ges at Heinz field. Forget about the kids who have class on Friday, it’s about TV revenue.
Steve needs to look out for Steve.
On the other hand if Kiwi Steve stays and develops his game like Aaron Gray did, Steve will be a lottery pick and have a very long and rewarding NBA career. And make much more money in the long run. 😉
Hope he’s smart enough to not look at the quick buck but the long view of things.
The fact is, we all HOPE he stays. But to suggest that another year of college hoops is better for him and his draft status is almost certainly wrong. Just ask Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones III and just about any other highly ranked player who came back only to see his stock drop.
They will be much fewer and further between than when we were in the BE.
Yes, ACC does play Thursday night games, but they have never stuck a member as the “Thursday Night” team. They have rotated them very fairly.
So, with 14 teams, and with a fair rotation, that will not happen as often as it did in the BE.
IMHO
Looks as though the top brass @ Big East Team Fan Shop read this blog..
As of today, the ‘Pittsburgh panthers ACC Arch T-Shirt – Navy Blue’ has been wiped clean from the site.
Entering the product ID: 1111700, you’ll find “IMAGE NOT AVAILABLE” & “ON HOLD.”
Take a look for yourself. LMAO!
I am in full support of athletes going out and getting as much money as they can as soon as they can. Everyone is profiting off them, this is their trade so of course go get your money.
In Adams’ case though he has not hit his ceiling. He is developing in to a very likely lottery pick, and under the rookie pay scales for the NBA lottery guys do far better as a rule (its hardly up to the team that drafts him).
If he stays he also gets more notoriety. If he leaves this year, it will be years before anyone hears of him again, until he actually gets some minutes. If he stays, and takes us to a Final Four, his notoriety sky rockets and in addition to being a lottery pick he’s in a much better position for endorsement deals. Sure, maybe no Nike but something far better than he gets if he is draft pick 14-30, with no name recognition and no chance of making a name for himself until at least 3 or 4 more years in the pros.
This is a table of the rookie pay scale. Top 5 guys make more in their first year than the picks 20-30 do over three years.
His skill level is not even close to what it needs to be in order to compensate for the fact that he looks pretty awkward while trying to get position around the basket and is not the best jumper in the world.
Doing the math, the million or two or three he would make should he elect to enter the draft this year could easily be made up by improving his game enough to become a mid to high first round pick next year.
The decision to stay another year is not that hard, unless of course you really don’t think you can get much better.
In finance, termed “appreciated assets”.
Patience is a vertue, then,,,,,SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!
If he doesn’t like what he sees, Chryst would then hire someone from the outside.
It’s well known that Chryst likes to roll the dice when it comes to playcalling.
That’s a whole other matter when it comes to hiring a guy to head up your defense when you’re coming off a six win season.
Here’s hoping Chryst is about to pull a rabbit out of his hat and it ain’t someone on the current staff.
A current example would be someone like the Plumlee kid at Duke. If he had come out after his freshman year, the draftnicks had him as a certain lottery pick. Now, not so much. No one in their right mind would say that he is not a better player than he was as a freshman, right or wrong, people have just seen him so much his ceiling has lowered. I believe this to be possible for Adams.
The counter to that argument is someone in my own backyard, MD’s Alex Len. He came back and has played his way into the discussion for #1 overall pick. The difference is no one had him as a first rounder last year, so there was less risk of hurting his stock.
My point, again, is that another year in college does not automatically mean an increase in your draft stock, even if you improve as a player. Adams needs to consider this if he is in fact a likely first round pick
Although Adams has some conditioning work ahead the only player I have seen who at 18 had an NBA body was LeBaron. As for all the centers in college in the country I agree with the concensus of the scouts Adams has the best footwork for a man his size and the highest ceiling.
If he went out after his freshman year he would be a lottery pick.
After 2 years in the NBA he will be a legitimate star.
It is obvious that he is much better compared to the confused looking player he was early this year. He still has a long way to go to become a competitive center at the NBA level and can get there for sure under Jamie’s tutelage.
He will probably be a lottery pick probably next year on his current pace of development. Another year in the weight room and improving his skill set will make him a starter in the NBA much sooner.
It is also impossible to put a price tag on the college experience. Most of us look back fondly on the four years that helped to transform us from children to adults. Once it’s over you are on your own facing life’s challenges.
I just hope that Steve has good advisers and support when he does make the transition, so he invests his money wisely to secure his future. A college education, and financial literacy skills, will take him a long way.
We all know about the athletes that squander their millions, get ripped off by their so called friends and advisers and end up bankrupt in a short period of time.
Let’s hope Pitt and his college experience prepares him for what is ahead.
So far, he seems like a genuine, level headed, team player, a credit to his country and our University. He has overcome long odds, and deserves great success. I hope he stays long enough to become a Pitt legend and then becomes a star in the NBA.
I read or heard, that they kind of have a “feeler” conversation with all of the a.d.’s, and they’ve never really had to force anyone.
But, you are correct, if S.P.’s mindset is to jump on them, then, we will.
As for the games……….
I have two points of view, and they are both very selfish!!!! LOL
I do not like games on Thursday night for Pitt, with your above mentioned concerns, and, overall, I just feel college football is for Saturdays.
However, when it’s not Pitt, I do enjoy watching other teams play on Thursday nights and glad to have games on!!! LOL
Until that time, lets just sit back and enjoy his game by game improvement. Like Emel, PantherP & others on here, I would love to see him come back next yr, develop his inside offensive game, and secure that lottery pick status, after leading Pitt to that coveted Final Four. HTP
We debated, if he would come, how good he would be, now it’s when he should leave. That’s what we do.
That said, I’m ok with one game on a Thursday night if early in the season like in Sept..Normally there is ton of stuff going on during Sept on Saturday’s so nice to free up an extra weekend and gives me a reason to take Friday off and have a long weekend.
However the Wednesday and Friday games are horrible both at home and on the road…hopefully the ACC will stay away from those games but fearing ESPN will overrule.
As far as Adams staying or going , I’m not a Ron Cook fan either but he’s got this one right. I’m not even going to waste time discussing it. It’s a win win for Pitt fans.
Don’t underestimate the fact he is an international student so he as a different point of view, and frame of reference, than a kid who grew up in BBall here in the US (not that either is better or worse, just different).
Finally, isn’t his girlfriend coming to Pitt next year for swimming or something?
as for the link to the ad above… wow… stupid + insensitivity-to-victims = fired…
For some reason, either discouraged by the coaching staff or lacking confidence (I find this hard to believe because at Addidas/N.D. Prep his ability to face the basket and score was what pumped up his ranking).
I wish Pitt would encourage him to take the 15ft jumper it would add an extra dimension to an offense that often has trouble scoring.
Pitt does have a go to man he just happens to be 7′. His hand injury may make him less confident. He can be a 70% foul shooter without all the tape – that is his game. He is more awkward with the hook shoots.
u go! Nerlens Noel anyone? before him I think Pervious Ellison at Louieville blew out a knee & was never the same.
Even Mark Blount made $$ once he got it together.
They’ve been doing Thurs. so long, and usually half decent match ups, I look forward to them, when not Pitt.
ex. #5 pick 2012. 3yr contract totals about 10M.
#20 pick 2012. 3yr contract totals about 3.5M.
That’s a big difference, at least to me.
So, to say, if he’s a 1st round pick, just go, is incredibly short-sighted.
Are there risks to coming back, sure, there’s risks with everything.
There are also upside risks.
If he’s guaranteed to be a lottery pick, ya, go.
If they’re telling him, ya, somewhere in the 1st round, then he has a lot to think about.
His stock could fall, it could also rise.
My prediction is that either the NC or Virgina game will be a Thursday nighter.
Change of topic, but if we win the next two, we will have a regular season that no one predicted. Especially after the failure of last year, again which no one predicted. Although highly unlikely, speculate on the Pitt program if Adams were to stay all four years.
I would give the same speech to Steve Adams…and yes, I know there are millions of $$ awaiting him.
It’s not selfish…it’s the truth. I believe he will stay for at least 3 years. We’ll see
I believe going to college is important, not just for learning, but to learn to interact with all other kinds of people. Those skills, the interaction skills, and your adjustment to them, will make or break you in life.
Hail to PITT!
The improvement in physique Dixon players make from year one to two is often dramatic. Given the impressive athletic ability the Pitt trainers have to work with, Adams could be physically dominant next season.
He should only go this year if he’s a lottery pick.
Kudos.
You spotted that wrap early.
If it appears that is not likely, he should stay.
That could keep Adams here.
Steve’s big sister photo. If he can develop the same strength attributes lookout NBA.
Don’t know how many have played hoops on this blog, but a thumb injury severely limits just about EVERYTHING IN BASKETBALL. And a thumb injury only heals by NOT playing, as it is constantly being hit, while catching a pass, rebounding, deflecting passes, shooting, blocking shots, etc., etc.. Basically everything, even the aftergame handshake would irritate it.
With that in mind imo, Kiwi Steve’s stats would be at least 25-33% better without the injured thumb.
And being a lottery pick means a lot longer guaranteed career in the NBA for a mid to late 1rst rounder. As one only needs to look on how many from just a few years ago are entirely OUT of the League. They don’t give up so quickly on lottery picks, so I disagree most assuredly with PeteinMd. Whoever he is. 🙂
Tim Duncan staying in school all 4 years trumps any names that the other side can come up. For he is a certain NBA Hall of Famer. And he has his college degree. Mr. Duncan being from another country like Kiwi Steve saw the value of school and developing his game, rather…..
than the quick buck.
Who knows what would have become of Tim Duncan had he came OUT after his freshmen or sophomore year. Most likely he would have been a bust, as he wasn’t physically mature enough, nor was his game at that time.
The NBA will always want someone in the 1rst round who’s 7 foot tall with the athleticism of Kiwi Steve. They will always be there.
link to insider.espn.go.com
Comment by tedsptman 02.14.13 @ 6:13 pm
Are we sure Kiwi Steve isn’t on here, cause there’s ONLY 3 players listed.
And you are an unknown poster, lol
3.8? Pretty good stuff; all with a bum thumb.
Does it matter what the injury is? Really, what significance is there in knowing the clinical diagnosis? It is taped and he is playing. I don’t think he has received poor medical attention.
SA has a good grip on his inner self and it seems as if he is saying to the rest of the world that he has lived his life under his terms and nothing is going to change that.
He stays for one more year then off to NBA riches as a top 5 pick–regardless of what anyone at ESPN thinks.
In another year who knows? One thing for sure however, he is getting better game by game.