A week ago Spencer Hall of Every Day Should Be Saturday tweeted out this nugget.
We have officially reached the point in the offseason where everyone believes they will be "better than expected" this year.
— edsbs (@edsbs) August 15, 2012
It took a few more days for Pitt fans to reach that point but after the second scrimmage, it happened.
There’s a feeling that 8 wins is no longer the ceiling, but the floor. That this team, with this coach, with this schedule, in this conference could very well win 8-10 games as opposed to the 5-8 that seemed to be the range dating back to the spring.
Yes there remains serious questions about the O-line. The front five are set, but questions remain in terms of depth, health and overall ability.
The D-line has its own questions. Can Aaron Donald still thrive with more attention (and double-teams)? Will others step up to make teams pay for doubling on Donald? Ezell? Clemmings? Murphy? Smith? Lippert? Can they really be War Daddies?
The linebacker spots all seem to have questions. Whether it is health or simply having stability.
And the QB spot remain a place of angst.
But…
The secondary looks so strong. The safeties are legitimately two-deep — and experienced. The cornerback positions look to be as strong as they have been in years.
Even if it takes Ray Graham some more time to come back from his ACL injury, Isaac Bennett has been continuing a strong spring in the summer. He’s not shying away from competition or learning from others at the spot. Malcolm Crockett has also had a solid summer camp. Heck, Rushel Shell has started getting carries in practice as Bennett has been day-to-day, and he seems to be coming around — but regardless he seems to be accepting of possibly redshirting like a good team player.
The Wide Receivers should bounce back in the new/old system. The Tight Ends stand to thrive and have the talent to do so.
Then, of course, there is the new coach and staff. Paul Chryst has everyone feeling optimistic — as you would hope when there is a new coach. That he can coach the kids up.
Hell, Chryst coached up Tyler Donovan in 2007 to help Wisconsin to a 9-3 regular season. Scott Tolzien was 20-4 from 2009-10 in the regular season. Why is 8 wins with Sunseri as QB in the Big East so outrageous an idea? Besides with Chad Voytik coming on strong in the final week of camp, who is to say he doesn’t take the reins from Sunseri at some point during the season?
It’s amazing how easy it is. How seductive it is to talk yourself into this.
The optimism and hope are good, though. I’d rather see some irrational exuberance towards the season than, “meh” or “maybe in time.”
My feeling is still in the 6-9 win range. There is just too many question marks on the line. Too little depth and too much reliance on players staying healthy. I like where the program is heading. I want to see Pitt doing nearly everything it can to win every game. I just don’t see anyway to avoid this ultimately being (yet another) transition year.
of the Cincinnati game is in the record books.
Yr 2 or next year… 6-8 wins… due to tougher competition and still not enough Oline and Dline depth.
8 wins is possible if the injury bug doesn’t bite them to bad but a 6 to 7 win season seems to be it.
–YSU, Gardner-Webb, @Buffalo, Temple
–@Syracuse, @UConn, @Cincy, @USF
–@Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Rutgers, Louisville
If Pitt can actually take care of business against the weakest 4 teams on its schedule, I think they can probably manage 3 or 4 wins against the rest of that schedule. I think the Cincy game is absolutely huge and we will not have to wait too long to figure out what this team is capable of. If they can beat Cincy, I think 8 wins is very reachable.
YSU – Win
Cincy – Win
Va Tech – Loss
Gardner-Webb – Win
Syracuse – Win
Louisville – Win
Buffalo – Win
Temple – Win
Notre Dame – Loss
UConn – Win
Rutgers – Loss
USF – Win
If Pitt gets 7 wins in Year 1…
and 7 wins in Year 2…
Chryst will be on the hot seat…
However, I sort of agree with your predicitions… and i based that on the athletes currently on roster or 2013 committs. I think 6 wins should be in the bag… the 7th win this year… if all works well.
2005 – 5-6
2006 – 6-6
2007 – 5-7
So, I need to correct myself… Chryst will have at least 3 years before being on the hot seat.
As with almost every college team, expect them to lose some they should win and win some they should lose. Happens every year.
YSU – Win
Cincy – Loss
Va Tech – Loss
Gardner-Webb – Win
Syracuse – Loss
Louisville – Loss
Buffalo – Win
Temple – Win
Notre Dame – Win
UConn – Win
Rutgers – Winn
USF – Win
8-4
Will it be the same old Tino at crunch time or will he turn the corner and make the big play when the game is on the line?
Will the defense make the big stop when the game is on the line?
These two things have happened too seldom during the last two years.
Only time will tell.
Very Likley wins:
YSU, Gardner-Webb, @Buffalo, Temple
Likley wins:
@Syracuse, @UConn, @Cincy, @USF
Likely losses:
@Notre Dame, Virginia Tech
I just don’t see either Rutgers or Louisville as being at all special. I don’t see anyone on the schedule except ND & VATech as being more talented if Pitt stays fully healthy.
IMO, the first team cupboard was pretty bare for a run first pass second style team when Wanny arrived (no outstanding RBs; a weak defensive unit) but, that isn’t really the case this time.
The only serious concern that Pitt will have with an expected run to pass ratio between 65-35 and 70-30 and a strong defensive unit will be depth–and that won’t be a major issue, IMO, if the team can stay healthy.
Someone asked for a scouting report on YSU in the previous post. While we should/will beat them, they should not be taken lightly or overlooked, they are athletic, speedy and return a lot of veterans on both sides of the ball.
Hail to Pitt!
Miller quote,”A big plus this year is that the optimism is coming from the fans and the media, not from the declarations of the head coach”. That quote is Hig Octane Solid!
Now throw in the always present intangibles, luck, momentum and the all important one the belief in one’s own self realization.
What I mean by that is the paradigm shift that occurs when the individual and/or group mind set comes to the understanding that, “$hit I can actually do this”! Any psychgologist can explain this as simply believing in oneself or the concept of what once was only a concept is now reality based solely on the fact that it has actually occurred and has been accomplished.
So my prediction for Pitt this season is 3-10. Sure wins against Youngstown State and Gardner-Webb plus one more. The rest is gravy,,,,unless, a season changing win takes place on Sept 15th. The whole mind set for this team changes with a win against VA Tech. In my mind this OOC game is the key to the season for the Panthers.
No chance of that victory happening unless Pitt accomplishes a mild upset against Cincy the previous week. But with a win there, momentum starts to shift in Pitt’s favor. When VA Tech comes to town, lets hope that they think this team is still playing that High Octane Fraud Graham disorganized football that they’ve been watching tapes on, because then we actually have the chance to steal a win like we haven’t had since maybe WVA a few year ago. Anyone remember 13-9? The energy produced by that game lasted all the way into the following season, nine months later!
A win against the Hokies changes EVERYTHING. That happens, we’re 3-0 and the sky is the limit. Could go undefeated from there, because then this team and these players actually start realizing that they CAN go undefeated. The mind leads and the body follows, especially when dealing with a game like football especially when played bya bunch of young men full of testosterone that simply don’t know any better than to assume that they are invincible.
Magical seasons often occur for no other reason than because so many variables simply happen to fall into perfect alignment. This team, for this season has tons of those variables. What they currently lack are the essentials of momentum and the mindset that victory is a given, I don’t know, call it “the winning attitude”.
Pitt knocks off VA Tech and all of a sudden, that comes into being a realistic characteristic that this team acquires at just the right time during the season. Momentum takes over from there.
It is just a theory of mine at this point. Like I said we could just as well suck out the a$$, 3-10. But 10-2 is a possibility as well. Knock off VA Tech and the sky is the limit.
As I always say, that is why they play the games. Hail to Pitt.
you only have to believe.
even with tino.
will he transfer to pitt will chryst even want him
6 foot tall 205 pounds .
Manasseh Garner was a 3 star on scout and rivals with Maryland, Minnesota, and some MAC schools. mainly MAC offers. Recruited by the one and only Joe Rudolph. I see him listed as 6’2. Was considered raw and has cut his teeth as a special teamer. layed in the Rose Bowl. a possibility.
I tend to agree – I think Pitt has a greater chance of losing to Temple, say, than before UCONN, however the game is at home. I would further break down the games as follows:
Definite wins (3):
YSU, Gardner-Webb, @Buffalo
Very Likley wins (2):
@UCONN, Temple
Toss-up (5):
@Syracuse, @Cincy, @USF, Louisville, Rutgers
Likely losses (2):
@Notre Dame, Virginia Tech
Regarding the toss-ups, note ‘Cuse/Cincy/USF are all on the road. I would be happy to win at least 3 of these 5 and finish 8-4. This also puts us at 5-2 in BEAST, which I bet is enough to win the conference. HTP
Anyone who caught Temple in the bowl game last year knows the job that Steve Addazio has already done in elevating the program — more so than Golden actually accomplished.
Addazio had been my No. 1 choice for replacing Graham… Chryst No. 2.
Cincinnati is another well coached team that will be tough – could go either way.
However, already on the record with an upset of VAtech. See it as a defining moment for Chryst in his first season.
VA Tech, has a history of letting an early game on their schedule get away from them. I live in Virginia and this OOC game is definitely being overlooked by the VA Tech faithful at least, hopefully we can catch them napping when they travel up to Pittsburgh. Hopefully Beamer and staff won’t be able to impress on them that they could get knocked off up at Heinz field if they don’t come to play.
We can only root that they beat Ga. Tech on their nationally televised home opener on Labor Day night, because if not, then Beamer will have them whipped into a frenzy for the next few games and that wouldn’t be a good thing for us.
This game will also expose our pocket/pass protection as well as our special teams execution. Hopefully both will stand up to their pressure. If we can keep the hungrey dogs up front from tearing Tino up, we definitely have a chance to shock the world.
It would be just the spring board of momentum that the Panthers could use to carry it forward into the meat of our schedule.
Something people might not know about Paul Chryst.
The guy is far more competitive than his easy going personality would suggest.
He loves the BIG GAMES and is cool under pressure when they arrive.
